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Yup..we are starting a new pattern now.  No doubt in my mind.  This ULL is coming out of left field.  And yes, very unusual for August to see this.

Imagine what this might look like in December/January?

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Probably a huge cold push and create a Gulf Coast storm and give Atlanta snow.  Assuming the jet stream drops south as the year progresses:)

Jeremy

Wow the birds are really cool!

 In a new LRC, I'd want:
Winter: Snowstorms that are small that fill in wrinkles from people treading thru the snow.
Spring; ots of storms, especially loud nighttime one!
Summer: A heat wave barley up specifacations.
Fall: Beautiful Fall colors for a long time. Halloween wet snow!

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I've seen a blizzard on Halloween when I lived in Minnesota back in 1991.

Jeremy

Those have got to be geese on the radar....would anything smaller than a goose be able to be picked up? However its not really migration time....interesting.


The meteor shower is something i cant wait for! I just need to find a good place away from city lights to go see.  The tower at shawnee mission park might be a good place as western lenexa has some of the highest elevations in johnson county, and to get up on the tower at night there should be some good visibility

Can someone explain to me what a ULL is and why its strange to see it in August? Could this be a good sign for us snow lovers? Is it a sign we may have a great snowy winter? I would love that!

It's not unusual for area radars to pick up bats returning to the bat cave.

KansasPatriot - during summer, most of the vorticity/energy is up with the jet stream in southern Canada.  Even then, you typically see weaker upper level lows pass through the flow.

Seeing this prog, it is much deeper and further south and closing off..that is rare this time of year.

I believe this feature to be part of the new pattern.  That means you will see it 5-7 more times as we go through to next summer.

As the jet drops, this feature will also drop and become colder and more powerful.  Too soon to tell about winter yet, but this could be a cold air machine!

kcwxguy, I see what you are saying.  So this is a weather pattern that somewhat is the delivery vehicle for cooler or colder canadian air?  So instead of it kind of being weak this time of year its throwing a few one-two punches earlier than normal....kinda like knocking on Kansas City's door before it is welcome or expected....

Would this indicate a higher chance of maybe seeing snow EARLIER this year than normal? Im not holding to you this im just curious as to the possibilities.

Also...with this type of push does it usually carry precip with it?  I just hope it doesnt get TOO cold to snow.  I like heavy, wet, big flake snow ...coming down in earnest all night long so you wake up and POW its all over the place and in your face!!!

Well to be I'm not really thinking that this is a "NEW" pattern, one thing is, it has not even happened yet, two it seems to want to "fall" into the longstanding longwave trough in Eastern Missouri more or less, and three I seem to recall seeing those very high hights in western Canada before, also in general this entire pattern has wanted to drop jet energy south into this region pretty much since the pattern began, really the only time it seems that the anticyclone and associated high hights have tried to take over is when the Jet had finally reached it's weakest point on average, now the jet is probably JUST STARTING to tighten up a sliver and this "low hight" LRC(for our region) is responding... now COULD THERE BE SOMETHING NEW STARTING TO MIX IN? Sure, maybe but even so, weather you believe it is the old LRC distorting into chaos for a while and then changing into the new one, or if you believe the new one starts to "mix" in with the old until it eventually takes over, by the time we end up with the new "finished" product it won't be near this solution. Long winded story short? I would not get excited over winter by this ULL.  To be fair Scott has followed the patterns A LOT MORE THAN I HAVE so maybe he sees something more subtle, I just thought I would give my 2 cents from a more broad brushed look at the situation, oh well it will be interesting to see what happens!!

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Nick,

Wow, you have really almost become an LRC expert.  Great analysis, and exactly what I am thinking.  This storm is still heading into the longwave trough, but something seems different.  So, let's watch and see where it really ends up tracking.

Gary

Gary:

Good just gorgeous early August morning to you sir!!!! Man it is just fantastic outside this morning-and the past few days-just gorgeous!!! Been quite a while since I have had a chance to write in-I have taken on new responsibilities at school and of course, been busy with boys camping and fishing etc!!! Indeed, we were out at the cabin right smack in the middle of the mini heat wave-lots of lake time for sure!!!!!

Really just wanted stop by and say hello and to say that no, I have not really fallen off the face of the earth LOL I am just so far out of it regarding the weather that I don't want to make myself look any more foolish than I normally do LOL!!!

That being said, as usuall, a few random observations-I am very rusty, so thay are prob. more random than normal-if that is even possible!!!!

1. I can't believe I am beginning to watch the models for an ULL in mid August-not unprecidented of course, but still unusuall and thus very cool!!! The GFS this morning is taking it further North than previous runs and the 0Z Euro has it further south than its previous runs-playing the model game in August-who would of thunk!!!! That both modles have had this feature for the past two days, I think is a pretty good indication that indeed there will be some sort of ULL feature later this week. How it tracks and how much it actually wraps up of course is about 4 days away from being set and one will for sure see several different scenarios with this over then next few days-especially with the GFS considering it runs 4 times a day. Still, pretty cool to have this to follow this week!!!

2. One thing I have begun to kind of watch is the weather North of Yellowknife-noticed that north of there they are already getting some snow (yes, that is early for them) and some lows in the teens. I have kind of been thinking in the back of my 5 cent head (yes, Bull Duram again!!!!) that the arctic is maybe one of the points to watch in the development of the new pattern in the sense it tells how much possible cold air there is to work with and that will in turn influence the jet stream and help shape the LRC-prob. way off base with this, but just something I have thought about!!

3. Finally, as the 2007-2008 LRC begins to break down and as one begins to look (I hope I will get some time to follow the development this year even if I don't really have a clue as to what to look for!!) for the new pattern, I tip my hat to 2007-2008-it was a great ride. Got some snow and cold and any pattern that have a strong cold front blow through here (dry no less) in early August and give us some 10-20 MPH north winds is aces in my book!!!! One feature I have loved about this LRC is the fact that the fronts came in strong and made it all the way through from October through early August-Sweet!!!!!!!

Have a great day-the old humble abode is back into full school mode today for parents and kids alike so we also say goodbye to a great summer-summer as far as we with our school calendars have constructed it-summer still has about 6 weeks left and I'm sure between now and 9-21 summer will again show its strong self-prob. right around Labor Day weekend!!! As always thanks for reading and again, have a great day!!!!

Bill yes he is still here to ramble on (Led Zeplin anyone) in Lawrence

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Bill,

It is great hearing from you, and of course I love your analysis.  I know the pattern is a bit different just because I found myself comparing the last 4 runs of the upper low development, just to see if there is a trend.  I haven't done this in a long time.

I think you are more of a winter weather blogger.  So, Bill, I know you will become a regular morning blogger once your lakes may freeze over.  Hopefully we have a pattern favorable for it this winter.

Gary

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