NBC Action Communities

ok my oldest is having her 8th bday party at the park in the northland saturday from 11 to 1 what is the chance of it being rained out and ending up at my house>> please tell me it will miss us or be later in the day!!!!

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Let's look at this around Thursday.  It is just too early to worry about it, and forecast a specific rain time.  It may be just perfect for the party.

Gary

Yawn!!!!  I'm enjoying the Olympics, but these late nights are doing me in!!  I simply do not trust anyone else's forecasts therefore feel I need to stay up to watch you ( I did watch the 5 p.m. newscast but was hoping to get the "new data" so I watched the late one as well.  I guess it's a consolation that you're all probably tired as well!!  Looks like the showers that were headed our way this morning poofed right before they hit the metro.  Not a drop in my new rain gauge!  Well I gotta get some coffee in me.  Have a great day!  Dea

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Dea,

Thanks, it would have been nice if NBC would have allowed us to do our 10 PM newscast and then gone back live coverage at 10:30 PM.  Our ratings would have been sky high. Viewers that watch the other stations would have a chance to watch how we have improved dramatically.  We are getting a little of this, but 11 PM to midnight newscasts are just a bit too late.  The best part about it is the fact that I have all of the new data in by the time we are doing the weathercast.

Gary

ok but i'll be asking again that is for sure! your the only one we trust!

So just isolated tshowers and thurnderstoms, ok.

Gary,

Maybe you and Brett should meet for breakfast after some of these late nights.. I'm sure you 2 have met many times in the weather center in the middle of the night, but this is just a bit different.

What are you thinking the weather will be like for the Chiefs preseason game at Arrowhead Saturday Night? This sure is an interesting weather pattern for this time of year

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I think it will be pleasant, in the 70s, with the rain threat low.  The best chance of rain should be around Thursday night into Friday, and then perhaps Sunday or Monday.  Quite often when we think that day 4 is dry, it ends up wet.  Let's see what we think tonight and tomorrow.  Jeff Penner said the same thing as we were leaving.  We should just meet Brett for breakfast.

Gary

Looks are deceiving.  While the pattern would indicate a slideby, I don't think this is going to "slideby".

This "slideby" storm gets stuck..and I think it is the reaction to the new pattern.  While we are in transition, what initiates from the past pattern will now begin to react differently.

The storm does not go where it has before, and does not really clear our region for about a week.  

I think the region is going to get soaked through late next week.  

It does look like it fits the old pattern, but I think it will react much differently this time.  I really think we are starting into a new pattern.  But I digress...it is just a subjective thought right now until I am confident enough to put out the new cycle duration in September sometime supported with surface/upper air data.

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Scott,

Maybe so, but maybe not.   Let's see what happens with this storm.  It isn't what the computer model says, it is what actually happens that counts.

Gary

Gary, it would be nice if you guys could do a quick forecast during some of the commercials during the Olympics. I also can't stay too late to watch your guys news. In one respect, I wish you would have made the new set debut before last Friday because I haven't really got to enjoy because of the late news casts.

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It is NBC's decision as we have no choice in when we come on for our newscast.  There are only a couple of 30 second spots for us to do something, so teasing the weather is all we can do.  It is just two weeks of this.

Gary

Ugh, I would prefer not to have two rainy Saturdays in a row.

kcwxguy- I hope you are right!! I love rainy days!  Bring on the rain!!  Dea

Gary,
My daughter and I have a question.. why are lightning bolts different colors? We have seen bolts that give off a blueish color. We also have seen bolts that give off yellow and orange "casts" of color. Is this because of pollution in the air?
Audra

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Audra,

Lightning may appear to have different colors, but as you suggested it is only because of the pollution and conditions of the atmosphere. 

Gary

We need to get back on track with the rain so we can get an above average August rainfall. The temps are definitly cooler. I am dissapointed as the contest for me is pretty much blown away, but I am not complaining, this weather is awesome!

Gary, maybe this stretch of cooler weather is a sign of what is to come in this next 2008-2009 LRC.

Alex

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Alex,

This cooler August weather still goes hand in hand with what has happened all summer.  And, the dry weather this month, is likely about to change with this slow moving trough.

Gary

Thanks for your help Gary.
Audra

I also need to crash after watching 4-5 hours of Olympics coverage and trying to wake up for work the next day to do it all over again.  Of course, I'm not sure about anyone else, but its getting harder to just fall asleep after it's over.  Like last night when the men's gymnastic went to the very end and you're amped up to see them medal, when they were predicted to do so bad.  It's an adrenaline rush and you can't just turn off that switch immediately.

As for broadcasting the weather forecast there's just no other option than to wait.  Obviously you can't tell viewers that you have the forecast updated online or on Weather Plus during the Olympics, because that would take people away from watching the Olympics.  For obvious reason NBC Corp wouldn't let that happen.  However, I think NBC should give their local affiliates at least a minute or two each night to update their local viewers on things, not just weather related.

Also what happens if there's severe weather during the Olympics coverage, heck the East coast might have a Hurricane by the end of next week?

nasty...I wondered about that potential, but think the building ridge in the SE may steer anything more south under the axis into Florida or into the Gulf...way too far out to tell...

As it relates to the contest, its going to get real interesting in the last two weeks of August.  It appears the NW flow is going to take off awhile as we deal with this oddball storm.

While the storm itself will likely keep us kinda cool, once it leaves, I don't really see the NW flow coming back..that will leave us more with a typical pattern for Summer.

At this point, I think 20 days is going to be a stretch, but possible...anyone less should have a better shot than those over. - just my opinion.

I think we may get 5-7 more days of 90 or above before the end of August.

gary, this cool stretch is different than what has happened over the summer so far.  it is dry outside, and there are few clouds...two things which should elevate august temperatures.  earlier this summer, the relative coolness was due to moisture and cloud cover.  it is 77 degrees with a 64 degree dewpoint.  it feels like late september out there.  

looking at the gfs, it would suggest that it may be wet up through next tuesday, and cool...but then it looks like warm, humid conditions would return in earnest by the end of next week through the weekend and into monday of the following week.  the solution was different yesterday, so im not taking it as gospel...but that seems fitting.  the increased humidity will allow the temperature to slowly turn upward again and it will eventually get to around 90 with relatively high humidity again for a few days by next weekend.  but once again, it could be short lived, and it could also be a lot worse.  

i am sensing a pattern shift...something is different.  i would say at the least that it has begun to change.  whether the 'lrc' is in transition or not, i dont know...now of course, the biggest problem is that it would be easy to deduce that this enigmatic pattern change is in fact...fall...

the biggest problem that surfaced this year with the lrc theory is that it hasnt had sustainable likeness beyond two cycles.  also, back in the winter time, i brought up a proposed 46.5 day cycle that fit wayyyy better than anything else mentioned at the time.  it fit all the way into march(*starting in october).  not only did it fit like a glove for regional weather, but it also was evident at the surface...a big no no in gary's eyes.  by the time spring arrived, however, things changed.  and now it would seem that a likeness can be found at 50 day intervals or thereabout.  it seems feasible, if not plausible, that there is indeed some sort of 'lrc' out there, but, it is not being recognized in the proper manner.  it would be prudent to consider the possibility that there are two distinct cycles: a summer and a winter.  where a transition occurs...in the transitional seasons: fall and spring.  its already accepted that the lrc would start in the fall sometime, i suggest taking a strong look at march-april time frames in the future to see if there is indeed a secondary point in your theory, gary.  few cycles in nature are purely circular anyhow...which is what your current theory suggests.  the idea of a second point in the series would give the cycle a 'continuous figure 8' pathway.  it seems to be a reasonable explanation to the loop holes in the current theory, and would give your theory more firm ground to stand on...not to mention, it isnt science until you rule it out!

The 12z NAM looks fun, but we will see, another thing that is eye catching is the tropical cyclone the NAM is forecasting.

Ahh..a posting right in my wheel house.  

Nice work, Pvt.  I am going to agree and disagree with you.  I think there are a few different ways to look at this.

First – here is a thought on the variability in the cycle.  Seasons.  It actually is more basic than even that.  

Summer into Fall, the jet is still rather north, but dropping.  Lets assume the initial pattern cycle to be thought of as 50 days.  As the jet drops into wintertime, the jetstream is amplified and more in play in the CONUS.  If the jet is amped up, so is the vorticity.  If the vorticity is amped, so is the speed of the wind.  If the wind is faster, it will move faster within the pattern.

In winter time, I would expect the cycle to compress some.  So..maybe in this example, winter would be 45 days.  As the jet begins retreating in Spring into summer, it would perhaps move more into the fall position of 50 days.  Perhaps in the genesis and dying times of summer, it would stretch to 55 days.

Keep in mind, even if the frequency changes, provided that the events still occur in sequence, the pattern is intact.  What is more important to know than the frequency is the pattern itself.  There will be seasonal variables that will impact both intensity and location of the pattern.  [addresses the question why something didn’t happen in the same way/place as last time].  The trick is identifying and quantifying the variables to allow pragmatic modeling/forecasting!

As far as surface trending – I am not sure that is a big no-no anymore.  As the upper air is cycling, there will be a direct relationship to the surface.  I think Gary’s caution is not to assume that the surface is cycling and not the upper air.  Even as the upper air is cycling, things can happen on the ground that is not a direct reflection of the upper air.  I have learned this the hard way.

I do think there is a surface cycle of sorts.  I have been researching quite a bit on this, and it seems many have done different types of experiments with this and other variables.

I found this snippett interesting from Detroit NWS from a past study.

"The "sine wave" temperature pattern of above normal to below normal continued through the remainder of the winter with February being well above normal and March, below. In addition, the majority of the snowfall this season occurred during the months of January and March and nearly all of it during the first two weeks of each month. It is also interesting to note that the overall temperature/snowfall patterns of both months were ironically quite similar. The coldest of weather, along with nearly all the snowfall, occurred during the first half of January and March. On the flip side, in keeping with our "sine wave" or oscillation pattern, February held a fairly strong resemblance to December. In both months, temperatures averaged well above normal (7.0+) with not surprisingly, below normal snowfalls. Even in the month of April, this trend continued with above normal temperatures returning. While the majority of months do generally display a pattern of above normal and below normal temperatures, it is the exaggerated amplitude here that is most noteworthy."

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/nina-upt.php

I think it is incorrectly attributed to La Nina, as it sounds more like evidence of the LRC to me..but that is just my opinion...

I am confident that the LRC is a yearly cycle.  I do think there are “mini” cycles within the flow, but they are part of the greater cycle.  

Oh..and to address your first thought…I have seen very strong evidence in cycle looping that I would argue that there HAS been sustainable likeness beyond two cycles.  I have seen this at the surface as well.  

As you probably know, Notes and I have continued in his forum chasing our tails to agree on the best way to represent this.  I have been stuck on sinusoidal pattern recognition for a long time and recently statistical regression testing.  Trying quickly to get my head around this..it will likely take a bit of time.

LOL

Great thoughts, PVT…I like your ideas…

the NAM suggests 850mb temps at 12*C for us for a long period of time.  if we are indeed saturated from the storm, then we could conceivably be looking at similar temps down at the surface.  i'll believe a day in the low 50's in the middle of august when i see it ;)

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Pvt Murphy,

The latest NAM suggests overcast, rainy, 60s on Friday.  But, is it right?  We will keep our 75 degrees for now.  This is becoming an extremely positively tilted upper level trough, but with some 500 mb circulations embedded in it.  We may talk about this in more detail tomorrow.

Gary

Dude, If we get a high of Low 50s this month I will be baffled

Hey, does anybody know if the Perseids will still be visible tonite, or did I miss the boat?

If you guys want more viewers during the Olympics, why not show some of the olympics on 38 The Spot, then do your 10pm newscast on Channel 38, and return to the Olympics, on ch. 38 and 41, but there still wouldn't be a 10pm newscast on 41.

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If we did our 10 PM on 38 the spot, the ratings would not be that high.  And, the ratings are sky high on KSHB-TV for the Olympics thus far.  Last night, we had our highest rating in years for a primetime schedule, except for perhaps a Chiefs game on one of those NBC Sunday nights.  Even at 11:45 PM last night the ratings were very high.  Amazing.

Gary

low 50's=ice age :) lol

I could see one of those days touching upper 50s for the low.

Does your GM or News Director think that the Olympics might bring in more viewers and ratings? I know, I like to change the topic from the weather a lot....

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Alden,

Of course he does!  We are getting a lot of sampling from other viewers.  Hopefully it will translate into some of them realizing that we really do a great job. 

Gary

Stormdog:

I'll believe it when I see it.  Alas, sad to say, I stopped watching the Olympics the minute us Americans allowed professionals in (darn the Russkies and the Chinese).

It was more enjoyable to watch true amatuers like Jim Ryan (or was it Runyun) outrace the Soviet bloc professionals (Mexico, 1968),


This pattern has turned very boring, altho I love the 80s F in August, but would like to receive a bullseye of pcpn for a change - BUT THAT AIN'T VERY LIKELY - not for Blue Springs.  

Ah well, SNORE, SNORE...(hoping this Dog will surprised out of his wits one of these days)
Later,Dog

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Dog,

I am convinced that you will get into a bullseye within a week.  As soon as you get to this level of thinking Blue Springs is jinxed, you usually get hit hard. 

Gary

Wow, do folks really watch the Olympics? Our family is too busy to watch much TV, except of course for 41 Weather!  We saw about an hour over the weekend only because we were at  Grandma's house and it was on.
I, too, would like the weather team to do more blogging the next 10 days since there is less chance to see you on TV (or you are on  too late).
For instance, there are pop-ups in Nebraska and Iowa that look to be heading this way. Will they make it?
You had mentioned that we could be moving into a wet pattern. Give us details!

Dwight,
Do folks really watch the Olympics? You're joking right!? Its on every TV everywhere I go, all the time. And we have been watching it every night at 7 for the gymnastics and especially the swimming. And most of the people I know are  watching too!!

Now lets get some rain in here!
David

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David,

Let's just hope for no severe weather.  Can you imagine if I had to interupt the Olympics.

Gary

dfromwarsaw,
although the premiere is over, you should still be able to catch a good show tonight. my advice which i am doing myself, is wake up around 3:15AM and go out so your eyes can be used to the dark by 3:30, thats when they should start gettin going. From about 3:30 or 4 til dawn. thats what im doing anyways. the moon will block any good ones if you go out too early.

now the real question is will it be clear enough to view? or will there be clouds or fog to worry about?