NBC Action Communities

I predict and am hoping for UNDER.
--deb

Over is my guess.

Keri

Under. I would like over, but the way things have been going, it wouldn't surprise me that we get missed again.

I say OVER!

My guess is over.

David ( Dwxtracker )
You seem to be incredulous that I would question if people really watch the Olympics.
You have to realize that there are hundreds of cable and satellite stations. THis isn't 1976 with only 3 netwoks.
My assertions that viewership is down was discussed in the following New York Times article over the weekend. I think it proves my point.

With NBC's Nielsen ratings for the Olympics 4.5 points below the network's guarantee to its advertisers, the network disclosed Thursday that it had begun to give many of them extra commercials. Advertising industry executives attributed the lower-than-expected ratings to effective programming by the other networks and a broadcast schedule hurt by the time difference between the United States and South Korea.
''I think we'd have to say we didn't expect the ratings would be this low,'' said John J. Sisk, a senior vice president and director of network negotiating for the J. Walter Thompson Company, which represents the Eastman Kodak Company and several other major Olympics advertisers.

I am praying for over....need a little drinksy here in the Northland!

OVER



If we get wave after wave....

I live by KCI. Under. Duh. (lol)

I am watching the Olympics! I stayed up till after midnight last night watching. I love it! But then again I was around in 1976 when we only had 3 stations, and grew up being excited to see our wonderful athletes. How can people not get excited about the Olympics? Michael Phelps is exactly the hero kids need today. We had Nadi (not American, I know) Mary Lou, Greg Louganis. Kids today need a good hero.

definitely under.  there is a bubble over my OP home and KCI.

over

Since this has been one of the strangest Augusts in some time, I am going to say OVER the 2 inch mark (but just barely).  I am a native of western Kansas, and I am really used to 105-110 for temperatures in the normal August.  This year has been a nice break.  GO PHELPS.  We now claim the greatest Olympian of all time.

Tater

I am going to say OVER.......

Jennifer

The forcefield seems to be solidly in place again so I'll go with under.  But 50 miles in any direction should be way over!!

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The latest NAM just came out with the exact opposite of what I was thinking.  Unbelievable.  The upper low is forecast by this model to be far enough west to change the entire forecast. 

Gary

UNDER, although hoping for OVER.

I have to say I am loving this August. Keeping out of the 90s is perfect for me. Just hoping that my fall isn't warm cause I love going to festivals on nice crisp mornings.

I am going with under, my only reason is that recent events have split around my house (six miles s/sw of the airport).

Under. I just have this feeling that the pattern is falling apart and we aren't going to see a lot of rain the rest of the summer, though I wish we'd get over. I love rain.

UNDER.

I think if we are witnessing a slow transition, it might be transitioning to less precip going into the fall. I have no basis for my opinion, just a gut feeling.

under

boy this is tuff to guess lets go with under.

Under, unfortunately. We've missed some of the recent rains here (Belton, MO). I'd sure love to get two inches. The garden would appreciate it!

In far northeast KCMO proper it will certainly be under, I'd go as far as saying no more than .30 of an inch for the entire week long period... all between Friday night and Monday afternoon when I plan to be camping.  Anywhere else than here, where the ground is pulled a half inch from the sidewalks, you can expect enough rain to cancel your events and perhaps cause flooding.  At least winter will be here in several months and I can watch as other people have to scoop snow while I just brush it off with the whisk broom.

over, Just back from Worlds of Fun, and tried the Patriot for the 1st time, Nice and smooth!

way under

I got to be honest.  I know it is fun to guess at rain/snow totals, but I'd rather hear what your opinion is since you are the professional.  This game you do is a mere bug in my pants.  Otherwise, I superenjoy the blog.

Under

OVER

under

I'm guessing under for areas south and east of the metro.  Here in Warrensburg, we haven't had any appreciable (read measurable) rain this month yet, so while I would love to see it be on the over side, I just don't think its going to happen.

I say over for many of us, including Leavenworth

But UNDER for KCI!!!

"Are you still with us?" -- Not sure...what day is it?  I may float off into sleep by then, but I will catch the blog tomorrow.  :-)  Got to get up early.

I bet I will be able to pick a spot in the region where both will verify.  It will not be as widespread..but more MCS type me thinks with the spitting vorts in the messy vort flow in the ULL.

KMCI will be under.  Within any spot in the viewing area?  OVER.

Throw out the NAM..its useless.

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Scott,

Then so are all of the models, as they all now agree. This is crazy.

Gary

Over....hopefully.

Gary, I think you are going to have to go with your gut feeling on this one.

Alex

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Alex,

It looks drier and drier.

Gary

Gary,

You should do a poll tomorrow to see who among the bloggers is watching the Olympics. Oh, and I know you already showed the totals, but I say under 2". LOL

And Dwight,
I didn't mean to pick a fight, all I was saying was that everyone I know has been watching them, and that all the TVs, at least at the places I have been, have been tuned to the Olympics, when they're on.

David

I agree with lezakEF5, go with your gut....this sounds like modelitis to me

Hoping for OVER in Smithville

Gary:

Good beautifull morning to you sir!!!! Man, sitting at a wonderfull 61 here in SW Lawrence this morning-just awesome!!! I do really think we are going to pay for this with a very warm late August and early September-this to me has an upper 90's Labor Day written all over it-summer shall not go quitely into the night-does it ever here?? LOL But, I will sure enjoy these nice cool mornings while we have them and relish in the fact that if it does indeed heat up again, it will be fairly short lived (1936 aside-13 days in September over 100-ouch!!!)

Trying to get back kinto the weather as much as possible even with school heading into full swing-so, as usuall, a few random lets throw some darts at the wall blindfolded musings!!

1. I think on satelite this morning one can see our upper level low spinning just east of Calgary. Not sure how that placement matches with what the models were showing the past few days, but I think it is there. Thus, we at least now have something to watch in real time and we are now not just watching some pretty L's on a model ouput!!! Will be interesting to watch it move (if indeed I am looking at the correct spin on the satelite loop this morning-a big if LOL!!!!)

2. The models: The 0z Euro and 0z GFS I think have some subtle differences on how this will play out kover the next several days. The GFS opens it up and takes it into Southern Kansas on hour 144 but the Euro has it a bit more closed and sitting up in North West Kansas at hour 144. Looking at the Euro, it seems we are alittle more into the vorticity of the ULL than the 0z GFS put out on the 0Z run.

3. With number 2: Models part 2: I really feel that the models will have a tough time figuring all this out-this is not an unprecidented event for sure, but it is unique to this time of year and kind of like trying to forcast a snow storm in March or October/early November, the modles will have a tough go of locking onto a definite solution until we get later into the week. Especially when one considers the GFS and NAM both run 4 times a day-that is 4 times each day that one run could get a hold of some piece of data that offers a different picture and then on the next run loose that piece and change the output.

4. All that being said, the NAM and GFS could be onto something and the EURO could be playing catch up as it for sure has been slowly trending towards thier solutions-I think?? It is great to have something like this to track this time of year and by the comments on the board, it has gotten everyone excited again-kind of like a Christmas in July sale-this is a December in August weather sale!!!!

5. Oh-I am going under 2 inches for SW Lawrence-too late I know!!!

6. About today: Looks like currently we have a decent cloud deck heading our way from thos storms over Western Kansas-will be interesting to see if we have kind of a milky sunshine type day today.

Ok-enough rambeling from me!!! Have a great day and as always thanks for reading!! I hope these make at least a bit of sense!! I hope you get some sleep!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Thank you for your input this morning.  The fact that the upper low is just now about to make its southward move is convincing enough to me that we will see many other solutions in the track and evolution during the next few model runs.

Gary

If it's looking drier and drier, I'll go with OVER.  Call it the RRC.  Whatever it looks like is the opposite of what will happen.

Gary, may I ask for the total 90 degree and higher days for the contest thus far?  I'll try to keep track after this.  Have a great day!  Rejuvenation

P.S. That is what you will need after all these late, late hours!

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I believe we are stuck at 9 90 days and 97 for the highest.

Gary

My grass has picture perfest due on it, to bad my camer's broken!!!

I'm watching the Olympics... I normally don't care about them, but this time I can't turn them off..except for a big brother, sorry gary, I know it's cbs...plus my wife HAD to watch Tori and Dean last night! *sigh*

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Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh, I haven't seen it yet!

Gary

My gut is telling me we'll see less rain than the models are indicating but only as I feel this upper low will retrograde and stretch out before it stalls in the central plains. The GFS is certainly more bullish on keeping this disturbance in tact, but even the 6z run is trending further west and less organized.

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Ed,

The problem is there are all kinds of possibilities and scenarios.  The morning model runs of the GFS and NAM both spin off a disturbance that forms into an upper low near the KS/NE border by late Thursday.  This would create an excessive rainfall event, possibly extremely excessive near us.  So, it isn't just the main upper low, however the spinoff system may not be real.  It is something we may not know for another 30 hours.  If it is not real, then I am with you on the retrograding upper low and the lower rain chances.  It is something we will be paying close attention to.

Gary