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good morning gary this forecast thru this weekend is a tuff one i agree with you we will have to watch the models day to day this could be like driving a car lets make a sudden right turn.then this would change the picture.have a great day!

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Yes, and as the upper low starts moving south today, we should at least have a better idea on what could happen Thursday and Friday.

Gary

Good morning Gary---I failed to tell you the amount we had from the last rains we had here in Topeka/Berryton. We had 1 inch in the old reliable rain gauge.  Looking over the situation I will go out on a limb and say we will get over 2 inches here by next week.  I  will let you know.  The cooler air will be great!  Take care and I hope you are enjoying your new set.  The Olympics have been great.  Wait till the track and field events.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

Yes, next week should have more Olympic excitement with the track and field events, and the basketball team hopefully going for the gold.

Keep us updated on your rainfall amounts. We have been drying out off to your east.

Gary

It is a very beautiful morning, I let the girls walk to school today. Just amazing weather for August. Sure hope this trend continues and maybe we will actually have a cool October for once in a long time. Even thought you were up way past your bedtime last night you still manage to get a blog entry out early in the am....you sure are dedicated. :o)   Have a wonderful day!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

I haven't decided yet, but I may sleep in tomorrow....maybe.  We are on at midnight tonight.

Gary

Gary,

I'm sure you will be glad to get back on a more normal schedule, don't know how you do it!!! Keep up the good work!!! KUDOS!!! Yes, the temps are great...however, no rain other than a few drops in the past 2 weeks is not good, thank goodness the temps haven't been in the 90's or everything would really be turning brown. I and my yard would love to see 2inches of rain by next Wednesday...hate to be pessimistic but knowing how things have been going out here on the east side...I wouldn't be surprised if we get nothing in my yard, while those that have been getting rain, will get it again. I'm keeping my fingers crossed though...I'd be happy even with half an inch...maybe this will be the time. : -)

Jeff  

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Jeff,

This entire year has seen Mother Nature come through in the end.  Each time it seems we are drying out, it suddenly starts raining.  So, I expect this to happen again.

Gary

Love the cooler August temps as well. This LRC has been very nice from those in the past. Hope the new LRC that develops will move the near 50 inch snow from St. Joe to the south, and preferrebly over Southern Blue Springs this winter. Before dreaming of that, we do need some rain so the forecast would be great if it can hold together.

Do Breezy and Stormy sleep with their visitors?  I can just picture them all curled up together in one big "puppy pile!"  :)  Sure is GREAT weather for this time of year!  If we're allowed to order weather -- I think the rain Sunday would be better than Saturday!  So . . . see what you can do about that, okay?  :)  Laura

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We are working on keeping Saturday dry.   Breezy, Stormy, Slick, and Stuey play well together, but at night I put Stuey and Slick in their little cage in the bathroom. 

Gary

In in looking at the GFS sounding forecasts, the SREF, and the RUC...I am still thinking quite a bit of rain in the area..but it will certainly have an element of hit and miss.

I am still seeing quite a few possibilities for spin off vorts creating MCS type events in the area..where/when/how?  Not sure yet...

PW values look to be very good.  The location of the ULL is still fuzzy, but the SREF and RUC put it further east.

Since the NAM is dead to me, the only alternatives are the Euro and the GFS.  The GFS has been flaky all summer with location.  The Euro [for what I can access free] doesn't have enough resolution for me to feel comfortable, so I will go to the SREF/RUC when in doubt.

Friday does look like a rainy day.  I would bet it is a bit more than a 20% chance.

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Scott,

Just throwing out the NAM unconditionally is not a good way to forecast.  You must consider it, especially in the first 36 hours.  The NAM and the GFS both have similar solutions today. 

Gary

I'm not an expert by any means, but looking at the new NAM and GFS, they both seem to put rain back in the forecast for most of the day Friday.  Am I reading those correctly?

Thanks,
Todd

as far as the potential for it to rain 2 inches in an hour...i guess the possibility exists in any month for that to happen...but oddly enough, august is one of the drier warm months for KC climatologically...i would say less than 2 inches.  i bet this setup provides a showery rain, which wont exactly dump buckets on us.  there is no tropical origins to this either, its coming from canada.  so, i wouldnt expect a lot of rain, but it may be rainy never the less.

The weather is GREAT for August........however we need some rain...........these cool temps sure throw a kink into the 90 degrees contest!

Ha.  Yes, Gary you are right.  Better said, I looked at it and still don’t trust it.  I think that is fair enough.  As much as the models have flip flopped run to run, it’s hard to put much faith in all of them.  

As a very wise forecaster once told me - get as much data as you can, weed out what doesn’t seem right, use your experience and gut and go with how you feel about what you saw.  

Oh..and most importantly, don’t forget to look out the window.

I am doing that in this case, but was short previously in only saying that the NAM stunk in my opinion.  

I generally prefer not to use the NAM anyway.  There are enough other models/ensembles out there where one can be accurate without the NAM.  [Isn’t the NAM to be replaced anyway sometime in the future?]

Heaven forbid..some only rely on in-house models.  LOL

I think everyone has seen cases communicated where a met will throw out a model run or have preferences to one source or another…this case is no different for me.

So..in a nutshell..I looked at the NAM..and still don’t like it.

Pvt – when you say this…” as far as the potential for it to rain 2 inches in an hour...i guess the possibility exists in any month for that to happen...but oddly enough, august is one of the drier warm months for KC climatologically...i would say less than 2 inches.”

Yes, I agree August is pretty dry.  But – I think that is likely more to the fact that with the jet so far away and with weak frontal systems, finding a way to create forcing is generally difficult in August.  I think we both agree that dewpoints in August are plenty sufficient for significant PW values.  Even with this storm, PW values are coming in between 1.3-2.0 inches.

Looking at the current surface obs, dewpoints in the region and to the south have mid 60s to the low 70s.  That is enough if there is forcing.  So..in this case, this ULL is not quite normal for August.  Depending on where it lands, it is quite plausible for there to be areas under heavy thunderstorms or MCS complexes where 2 inches an hour is possible.

So..the big question of all of this is..how/where will the ULL end up?

Gary

It was extremely foggy this morning, I wish I had my camera with me. The fog was still very dense at 9:00 AM.

Alex

http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2008/08/burger-king-fir.html
That story is Gross! I don't want to go Burger king Ever again!