Good evening bloggers,
Hurricane season should begin picking up in activity within the next week or two. It may or not be a coincidence that the LRC is falling apart right now. And, the changing LRC has caught us in a very tough forecast for the next week or so.
We continue to track an upper low that is in Canada. The track is still very much in doubt and every day we get a different solution. There has been a strong trend, though, towards us having one chance of rain Thursday or Thursday night, and then high pressure will take over bringing lower humidity and ending the rain chance. I will be going over the details tonight on NBC Action News. The over/under is now 0.02" of rain.
I decided to go with the drier solutions because I think the NAM and GFS models were way too aggressive with the lead shortwave, and it forming into an upper low. This is still a possibility, but if it doesn't happen, the high pressure area over the northern plains will expand, our humidity will go down, and the influence from the southwestward drifting upper low will be minimal. The best chance of rain could be Thursday night, and then not again until Monday. The latest GFS is now the lone model that holds onto the wet solution.Let's see how we feel when we are on at midnight tonight. New data will be in.
Chicago, IL has had the fewest 90 degree days since 1930. The cool summer from Kansas to the Great Lakes continues. Have a great evening.
Gary