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Evidence hinting at much wetter solution

Good late evening everyone,

Our newscast is on super late tonight, at midnight.  I should be energized by the current developments in the weather situation.  As I talked about at 6 PM on NBC Action News, the wet scenario entirely depends on a spin-off weak upper low formation that is not associated with the Canada upper low.  The GFS and NAM models have been developing this system, with the GFS being the most consistent of all of the models.  Will this second upper level low circulation develop?  I think there is a strong possibility, and not because of what the models are saying.  Just look at Nebraska right now.  A huge area of thunderstorms has developed. This will convectively develop this upper level circulation, so I will likely be increasing our chance for rain Thursday night into the weekend.  This is a very strange weather pattern.  And, even though I have been back and forth with the rain potential, as it gets closer we should have a much clearer, or rainier, idea by the time I am on at midnight tonight.

Our weather team will be all over these developments on Thursday!   Have a great night.  Let me know if you are up and watching our midnight newscast.

Gary

Published Wednesday, August 13, 2008 9:22 PM by glezak

Comments

 

LRCfan said:

Gary,sorry I won't be up that late but this is an interesting storm to track with all the developments,thank you for the update I was hoping to go to the leavenworth county fair out in tonganoxie on saturday night what do you think will happen that evening?
August 13, 2008 9:38 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Well, I didn't plan on staying up that late, but now I have to watch! (Hopefully you will have good news.) I have mowed every night before we were supposed to get rain for the past couple weeks, including tonight, and really need some to get rid of all the dead grass.
August 13, 2008 10:03 PM
 

Ross said:

I won't be able to stay up yet again...

I had a painful day.  3 root canals - 1 wisdom tooth = Ouch

But the wet weather solution makes me feel better.  Thanks for that.  Also, the guy that dislocated his arm lifiting weights at the Olympics.  That made me wince too.  I think there is video of that on the Drudge Report.  View at your own risk. :)
August 13, 2008 10:05 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I was in the hospital last time it rained and I wasn't allowed to go outside, so I could not enjoy the rain. I'm hoping for some REAL gully washers. Gary I wish I could stay up with you buddy but I'm up early every morning for outpatient therapy so this olympics thing is killing me. and get this, in the hospital, Visiting hours were always during the time when you were on so I never got to see you and Lights out was always before you were on to so It's going to be good when I can see Good ole Gary  Lezak on TV again! Everyone else liked the OTHER station. phh lol
August 13, 2008 10:08 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

I'll be up Gary! So I will be checking in at midnight to see what the updates are on the TV, and here.  Im always up late...this is getting exciting im really looking forward to tomorrow afternoon actually when things seem like they will become much more clearer.  This looks like a weather pattern with a mind of its own...somewhat of a non-conforming weather pattern.

-----------

Thanks for staying up!

 

Gary

August 13, 2008 10:16 PM
 

radman22 said:

So,  what do you do between 6:30 and midnight?    Has to make for a long night.  One can only look at models so long!!!   Thank goodness you have a nice storm to mess with that will keep you guys busy.    

I will be up working and waiting for the news to start.  

----------------

Thanks, I am working on some very special graphics.  Our new Powercast has picked up, somewhat, on the wetter solution.  So, I am making it right now to show.

Gary

August 13, 2008 10:27 PM
 

kristy said:

Ok gary I am staying up too, w/the wetter solution does this mean its going to rain all weekend?  Kristy
August 13, 2008 10:48 PM
 

MikeB said:

For those of you who don't normally water your lawns...how long has it been since your yards have been this green in mid-August???

Gary, I hope they're paying you overtime for all of these late-night broadcasts...or at least giving you some comp time. Yes?
August 13, 2008 10:58 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

man! my friend and i cringed after watching that poor guy who broke his arm in the olympics!

Gary,
even though i have to wake up at 6 for work, im with ya! i actually had to call in today cuz i was so tired from stayin up this week. not your fault though.
August 13, 2008 11:24 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Yes I am up and ready to watch the super late news at midnight, I do feel sorry for you having to stay up that late though, but what a weird situation in the weather... is it a really late evening news, or a super early morning show?, hmmmm. the semantics are  are interesting. Well "tomorrow mornings" show is about to start in 5 min. or so.LOL
August 13, 2008 11:56 PM
 

LRCfan said:

I love the olympics but I'm ready for the weather lol it's past midnight!!!!!!
August 14, 2008 12:03 AM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Alright! Time for the news and weather to come on.  Give us the latest Gary!
August 14, 2008 12:06 AM
 

SmithvilleWest said:

I'm up.  
August 14, 2008 12:13 AM
 

dkdm said:

I'm still here ....watching and waiting...
August 14, 2008 12:15 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Poor Gary this must remind you of severe weather coverage staying up this late, not exactly sure when you are going to be able to go home!
August 14, 2008 12:17 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

this is getting ridiculous!!! im about to go to bed im so tired! this is really not helping nbc action news ratings.
August 14, 2008 12:21 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

I am up for however long it takes. I am hoping it rains!....a lot!!!

Alex
August 14, 2008 12:34 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

WOOHOOOOOOO!!! Finally!!!!!!!!!
August 14, 2008 12:39 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

gary, im staying up. but could you please mention that cell just entering north missouri. will it reach chillicothe?

------------------------

Randy,

I know I didn't talk about that cell. It will pass by to your northeast.

Gary

August 14, 2008 12:40 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Thanks for the great forecast, man I usually don't see you having every day with a chance of rain, definitely weird!!
Your right, it has been a long time since you were able to say "Good Morning" on air!
Now it is time to see what the convection really does I guess, GOOD NIGHT!!

--------------

Nick,

Thanks!  Have a good morning.

Gary

August 14, 2008 1:09 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

7-day is looking good to me!

Good night!!

Alex
August 14, 2008 1:15 AM
 

suz01 said:

Thanks for the upcoming (wet) forecast. You guys seemed pretty peppy during the news for the late hour! Nice job. Back to the olympics we go now. Good night!
August 14, 2008 1:19 AM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Or good morning you mean! LOL

Man, not even starting the news until 12:41, hopefully this is the latest it will go?

*****************

Tonight will likely be another late night with the individual women's gymnatstics.  Should be a great competition and must see TV.  Also, Michael Phelps is racing live this evening for gold medal number 6!

Jeremy

 

August 14, 2008 1:25 AM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Cool forecast! Every day a chance of rain! I love it...best forecast in a while, natures fault of course.

August 14, 2008 1:35 AM
 

juba said:

the clouds out my window look very unstable, are we now also supposed to get a little bit of stronger storms this morning?
August 14, 2008 7:11 AM
 

juba said:

never mind, i dont think it will rain this morning at olathe.
August 14, 2008 7:28 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

I forget who it was [a day or two ago?] who was thinking about the next tropical storm and the east coast, but I remember I thought it would be a Florida/Gulf storm because of the pattern shift and the ridging in the SE.

Here is an interesting link about that...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

While it seems to be a tropical discussion, it is meaningful to us as well as the patterns are moving around a bit.  We have seen the troughing for most of the summer stretching from the Great Lakes down the eastern part of the CONUS.  This is what has given us our NW flow and cooler temps...

Well..things are a changin.  We are still in transition from one LRC to another, but that doesn't mean it is chaos.  [definition of chaos in the atmosphere - topic for another day] It means there are elements of both patterns now, one starting and one ending.  If you know what the old one looks like, you can see where the new one may be as well.

Gary hinted in the last blog or two that hurricane season is about to really ramp up and may/may not have a relationship to the LRC change.  I agree and DO think it impacts the LRC cycle.  I don't think its coincidence, but not sure exactly how it affects things short of the basic premise of bringing a lot of energy into the jetstream from the equator/tropics.

Oh..and as far as the over/under of .02 inches...looking at the radar rain estimates, parts of the viewing area are already over that.

It was over before it started.  Its gonna be wet for the viewing area...the signs have been there.  Will everyone need to build an ark?  No...but there will be a few that will think about it...

;-)
August 14, 2008 8:29 AM
 

Wthrlvr said:

Yikes, I stayed up watching the Olympics, then just had to watch the news and now my tush is draggin'.  Had to get up early because my three girls started shcool today.  I'm sure I'll make it and was glad to see Gary's forecast.  I really, really hope we get some rain this weekend here in west Olathe.  It sometimes seems like a vacuum sucks the clouds away before they get to us. Of course, other times we get drenched. I'm hoping for drenched!
Janet
August 14, 2008 8:58 AM
 

Kimberly said:

Janet, I am with you. I was up until 1am watching the Olympics and then the news (KSHB  of course) and had to be up at 7am to get my son to school.  My daughter will be in Kindergarten so she doesn't start until Monday.

It just  rained a bit here about 30 min ago, got my deck all wet, but seems to have stopped very quickly. I am at 101st and Lamar.

--------------------

Thanks for staying up.  Our ratings have been very high, even at 1 AM, amazingly.  So, that will help motivate us to stay wide awake for you tonight.

Gary

August 14, 2008 10:31 AM
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