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Don't worry Gary, it will not rain today since I left the old horse in the barn.  :) How about that for scientific weather predicting! At this point, I'll just keep my umbrella handy and prepare for the show at Lone Star Ranch this Saturday and then play it by ear from there. Now go back to bed!!

not that i am personally leaning to one solution over another...but it would seem that you are placing too much on each model run.  you are saying trends are flip flopping every 12 hours or less....(look at the last 3 blog titles and times).  a trend is not 12 hours, i would say 3 runs is a trend-not two.  unless if there is a consensus for a while and then it changes on 2 straight model runs...but in this case its been back and forth for a while now, so the best way to go about things is to just use old fashioned meteorology-without the aid of computers...since its raining out right now, its obviously going to rain a little bit...but this is a canadian storm, which arent known for bringing a lot of precip to our area, so it would seem a modest amount of rain is likely.  of course, the NWS seems to think that we are in a good position for rain:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif

im sure drier air will work into the storm for atleast one day, giving us a dry cool day(maybe sunday?) but as long as this thing is hanging around....i think there will be several days with those showery rains i mentioned a couple days ago...that just seems like what would happen in this setup.

im sure drier air will work into the storm for atleast one day, giving us a dry cool day(maybe sunday?) but as long as this thing is hanging around....i think there will be several days with those showery rains i mentioned a couple days ago...that just seems like what would happen in this setup.

*****I second murphy's prognosis...

Gotta agree with Murph on this one...you seem to have a case of modelitis.

And I'm sure not breaking out the sprinklers. I haven't measured but I know I've had more than 0.02" of rain this month at my house. We got pretty heavy rain Saturday morning. The @#$ grass won't stop growing. I'm ready for a break.

Then why is there still a 70% chance of rain for tomorrow?

This is fine with me...normally I like rain, but I have outdoor plans both days this weekend. Let is stay dry :-)

I'm with Murphy.  I don't understand this constant flip-flopping every time a new model comes out.

I sure could use rain.  Only have had .20 this month.

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Luther,

It may seem like flip-flopping, but this situation is so delicate with a slight difference in the models resulting in a major difference to our local forecast.  I hate the inconsistancy as much as anyone, but we just want the forecast to be correct.

Gary

Just now I checked to see if 2 of my cats were ready to come back in the house.  Usually they are reluctant when the weather is a moderate temperature, but they came right in.  I petted one, and his back was damp, so now I know why they were ready.  It is misting in Leavenworth at 9:45 am.

Edna

I'm not convinced those little showers are going to make it to my house.  They keep dissipating before they get here!  I feel I'll be lucky to get a few sprinkles but hope I'm wrong because I'd love to try out my new rain gauge!  As for staying up for the Olympics- I tried last night- I really tried but ended up dozing off at one point and missed some of the men's gymnastics- that's how tired I was!  Hopefully I'll be able to stay awake tonight!  Dea

What about the rain still on the radar and heading towards KC?  Is this the last of the rain for a long time now?

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Rain is increasing, so today looks wet, but the chance goes down after today.

Gary

I am tired of mowing the lawn too.  It is about this time of year that I start looking forward to the cool boring drizzle of October.  Just let me get in some more golf before too many leaves fall.

AMEN MURPH!

In addition to your link, here is another...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs036hr_sfc_prcp.gif

The GFS and NAM are not the end all be all in models.  They have struggled often this summer.

Gary,

I too am somewhat confused with such drastic swings in the forecast. Looking at radar, though of course not in my backyard, does show it is raining fairly significantly in certain area's especially a few counties out to our east and north east. With the NWS indicating such high probabilities of rain, is also making me scratch my head with such different views of the next few days. I'm still hoping for some rain.

Jeff

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Jeff,

We had the right idea around the 5 and 6 PM newscasts yesterday and we thought the best chance of rain was today or tonight.  The models have been throwing us for a loop.  So, as frustrated as you may be, we are just as frustrated.  We are always tweaking the forecast, but this situation is just so obvious.  And, there doesn't seem to be a middle ground.  It either looks wet for the next week or dry.  Right now, after some rain today it looks dry.  At least we may get some rain today.

Gary

Did you actually sleep in some?? :o)  What ever your gut feeling is Gary you better go with that. Last time you changed your thoughts to fit that of those darn models you ended up wrong...not sure when it was but I remember you commenting you should of trusted yourself and not get hung up on what the models were thinking. Maybe this situation is different, but it all seems alittle to familiar. Good luck with this one, I think you and the team will need it. Rest up, tonight is another long night for you all!!
Monica

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Monica,

Yeah, I better be careful.  You know how you can get in a strange mood when you are sleep deprived.  We will be going on very late again tonight.  Ouch.  Anyway, my gut feeling is that it will rain today, but Friday through Sunday look nice and dry.

Gary

I'm probably jinxing myself now, but maybe, just maybe those showers ARE gonna reach my house! ( hope, hope, hope...) I'm not asking for much, just enough to water the flowers and the lawn!!  Come on showers!!

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The rain is increasing.

Gary

If we do get rain today, what part of the metro looks like it has the best shot...or will be a metro-wide thing?

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Everyone has about the same chance...

Jeremy

Got several good downpours at Metcalf/Johnson Dr. area

I'm hoping the dry solution wins out for Saturday. We're planning on spending the afternoon with friends outside and rain wouldn't be fun.

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The weekend looks great right now!

Jeremy

ok so should this change again?  My hubby is out of town for work and gets to come home for the weekend and was going to ride his motorcycle back from Rolla and I don't want him to get caught in the rain...

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