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A southwest moving disturbance & Thunderstorms

Good afternoon bloggers,

There is a southwest moving disturbance, sort of a backdoor cold front coming our way, with thunderstorms developing along it.  A backdoor front is one that comes in from the east or northeast, which is not like most cold fronts that come in from the north or northwest.  This front separates an air mass with higher humidity from a slightly cooler and less humid air mass to our northwest.  It is being masked a bit by some diurnal effect, but by tonight the dewpoints will drop and we may see lows in the 50s tonight.  Look below at the 2 PM surface map.  It is 69 degrees with thunderstorms near Chillicothe:

 

The radar image, below, is from 1:50 PM this afternoon.  Heavy thunderstorms have tried to organize along the backdoor cold front.  They are moving southwest, heading our way and right near Chillicothe who had 2 inches of rain yesterday.

Thunderstorms and showers will likely continue to form along the front and move southwest.  There is a 40% chance that you will see one of these thunderstorms later this afternoon or evening before we lose the heating.  We will be covering these developments on NBC Action News at 5 and 6 PM tonight, and then we are on around 11 PM tonight with all of the new data, after the Olympics.  Michael Phelps is going for another gold this evening.

Have a great day!

Gary

Published Friday, August 15, 2008 1:45 PM by glezak

Comments

 

kcwxguy said:

:-)

-------------

Scott,

One little picture says a thousand words.  This is completely in line with yesterday's thinking. It is not from the upper low, and the weekend is still dry, so don't start anything this afternoon if you have a brief thunderstorm.  It was in the forecast.  :) back at you!

Have a great weekend.

Gary

August 15, 2008 1:59 PM
 

Braysmama said:

NOOOO! The one time I DON'T need any rain. I am trying to take the pool down for the season and was hoping that the weather would be warm and rainfree for a day or two to dry it out. Ugh. :(

********************

Just some isolated stuff out there, I wouldn't worry yet.

Jeremy

August 15, 2008 2:07 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Gary just regular storms?  Nothing severe?  And it'll still be dry tomorrow you think?  I have to confess that I still go to bed pretty early (I'm up at 3:15 a.m.) - so don't get to see you on the late night news!  Boo hoo!  But if you're staying up that late - I'm surprised you can function at all!  

*******************

Not expecting severe weather and yes the weekend will be dry.

Jeremy

August 15, 2008 2:34 PM
 

zeusthegreat said:

I actually watched Brett Anthony this morning and he never made any mention of the rain, news cast was actually online too.  Also checked your web graphics when i woke up and a dry forecast was in store.

To say this was in your forecast doesn't really count if you change it 2 hours from when it happens.  Anyways, suppose i should go mow my lawn now before the unexpected rain comes. **************** Zues...actually I was at work this morning and the tv, online, and WxPlus forecasts all had a chance of isolated showers/t-storms for today. Chance was 20%. So the forecast worked out as expected, our forecast high was 80 too. Happy mowing Zues...I just finished my yard with no rain anywhere close:) Jeremy
August 15, 2008 2:57 PM
 

Kimberly said:

Zeus, you are wrong, it was mentioned this morning on the news. I watched during the Today Show this morning and they said isolated storms were possible this afternoon. ************ You are correct, I was working and clearly mentioned the chance. Brett had the chance in too during the show. The video forecast was taped before our newscast. The text to the online forecast, our tv graphics, and wxplus all mentioned the chance of isolated showers today. We were talking about a chance today all week so there shouldn't be any surprises. Jeremy
August 15, 2008 3:25 PM
 

zeusthegreat said:

Kimberly, then what video am i seeing on the NBC action website?  I would assume that is the recording of brett anthony's morning news cast.

NO mention of any rain in that presentation in their forecast section whatsoever, only mention is when gary redid things this afternoon.  But whatever, all is still ok i suppose. ************ See what I wrote below... Jeremy
August 15, 2008 3:34 PM
 

country said:

Just a note: a nowcast is not a forecast.  
It is quite disingenuous to say you had it in your forecast when you didn't.  Certainly not the first time I have observed this phenomenon in this blog.  I have enjoyed the dialogue (most of it, anyway) on this blog, especially the insight of Scott and Notes, for quite a while.  But please respect the viewers and don't play childish games when you might be wrong.  BTW, that rain's kinda fallin' apart now.

-----------

I am sorry, but I don't agree.  We had a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms today, for exactly what is happening now.  Most areas are staying dry.  It was in the forecast and in the Nowcast.

Gary

August 15, 2008 3:35 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well it looks like a "tranquil day" but I can see the large cumulus build up to my northeast, it will be interesting to watch these things as they track by from the north east!
August 15, 2008 3:49 PM
 

juba said:

I dont think it will rain!
August 15, 2008 3:58 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Gary, what do you think will happen with TS FAY being so close to all that land?

Alex

-------

The center of Fay must be over the water for it to strengthen.  So, the land will be a factor.

Gary

August 15, 2008 4:06 PM
 

Kimberly said:

Zeus, now that I think about it, I am thinking of the newscast after the Olympics last night. That was at after midnight. Gary mentioned most of the rain was now out of the forecast, but today there was still a chance of isolated storms in the afternoon.  I think I missed this mornings forecast. But still it was forecast ahead, very late last night.
August 15, 2008 4:07 PM
 

spotter said:

well gary right now in st joseph sun clouds,sun,breeze,1000 sprinkles ha ha.78 degrees have a great weekend.

-------

That thunderstorm fell apart just to your east.  I expected only 500 sprinkles.

Gary

August 15, 2008 4:33 PM
 

Stormdog said:

Stormdog - Nice temps but essentially a very BORING August, altho this month is usually a boring month.  Sounds like cracks will once again appear in my yard - looks rainless thru at least 8/28 and probably beyond that, perhaps into the second week of September (that is just a gut feeling at this point).  Oh hum...KC generally receives less exciting wx than areas around us, and why, I could not really say.  I do think the Tonganoxie Split, for whatever reason, appears to exist, at least in some respects.  I certain know Blue Springs is in a "rain shadow", probably from the KC metro.  Yeah Gary, I know you will snicker at this, but this deficit is real and is there.

Oh well, not expecting much if anything anytime soon Stormdog

PS - That new TS near the Dominican Republic the GFS had curving north into Florida, and hugging the coast with high pressure to its east - rather sound like some hurricanes in the late 1950s and GH '38' - the "Great Hurricane of 1938"
that devastated Long Island and Connecticut and Rhode Island - great book on that out there by Anna Fields and a great audio book recording of that read by Cherie Burns (Blackstone Audio Books).  I recommend it as a five-star read/listen for any weather buff - tremendously written and with suspense!!!

---------

Wow dog, dry for the next month with no rain!  I will bet you end up with at least 2 inches of rain by September 10th.

Gary

August 15, 2008 6:25 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Well we got a quick down pour here in Lee's Summit. It went from nothing to a deluge in 1.2 seconds. This happened about 6:20 p.m.
Audra
August 15, 2008 7:45 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well that cell earlier died on us, oh well.  Fay is interesting, but it might take a track that puts it right over all the land in that region (through Cuba) and keep it from forming, but if it shifts a little north or south then watch out, interestingly the GFS says it will go into the gulf side and hit west Florida, while the NAM has been persistent today in saying that it turns north east of Florida( possibly missing the U.S. altogether). So it is possible that it takes the (island route) all the way to near Florida keeping it under control.
August 16, 2008 12:01 AM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Latest NHC forecast takes it just west of Florida. Looks like they think it could reach Hurricane strength next week. And it sounds like it may shift even farther west. Could another hurricane be headed for the US?
August 16, 2008 12:10 AM
 

juba said:

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING.

AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S TONIGHT...PERIODS
OF EVENNING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET
THIS AFTEDURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. BY TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW...WITH SNOW BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORM EXITS TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE EVNINGAND EARLY
NIGHTIME HOURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AS CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. THIS MESSAGE WAS A PRANKS BUT COPIED FROM AN EARLIER BLOG!
August 16, 2008 7:33 AM
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