NBC Action Communities

I think I couldn't ask for a better August. This is wonderful. Hopefully this will be the tend and we will have a wonderful fall.

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I think the diffence in electric bills between August 07 & 08 will be huge!

Jeremy

I agree!  Having the windows open this morning we had a wonderfully cool breeze.  It is awesome!  I know the 90's are coming back but I hope they are very short lived and we can have a cooler fall.  Have a great day everybody!

Hi Jeremy,
I just got done canning some tomatoes - great weather for being in a hot kitchen :)
Yesterday I picked up some fall plants, do we have any decent chance of rain over this next week?  I'd love to have mother nature help me water these in.
Thanks!
Hope you get outside for a lunch break, it's soooooooooooo nice!

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Right now it looks like next Saturday is our best chance in the next 7 days.

Jeremy

The last few days have been like a time warp to the middle of September!! Very refreshing, but one thing I do notice is for the first time this year the lawn looks like it is stressing a bit for water.

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It is drying out...if this was September the concerns may not really be there.  But hopefully we can pick up some rain in the next 7-10 days.  Probably dry for at least the next 3-4 days.

Jeremy

I hope it stays just a little cooler for September, like in the mid 70's! I also want it to snow a couple inches on halloween (that will last for the Holliday) so I can put snowman heads on sticks!

a few random tidbits to throw out there...

first, tropical storm fay was actually classified over the dominican republic...so here is proof to the nay sayers that tropical systems can in fact become storms over land...granted they are always weak, but it has happened before-and will happen again.

second, i dont see 90 degree temps this week-even on friday.  i am sure we will get 1-2 days of 87-88 degrees toward the latter part of the week though.  i see clouds on wednesday-thursday keeping high temps a little lower.  so friday seems to be the best bet.  maybe 87 on tuesday...it was supposed to get into the low-mid 80's today, 79 was the high at kci-78 here at the fort.  it got down to 55 this morning-felt great!

also, i looked at the long term gfs today...obviously its all fiction at this point, but the thing i noticed was the increased amplification of the jet stream starting next weekend.  especially the last 4-5 days of the month, it could get quite cool if it verifies.  i am REALLY starting to think that fall may make a seasonably early start this season.  for a while i have been thinking that we were just borrowing these nice days from september, and we would be getting the mid august heat late in the season...and im not saying that there wont be more warm days in september...but with the amplified troughs that are being depicted already, i wouldnt be surprised to have a morning at the very least in the low 50's- possibly in the upper 40's by the first week of september.  and we all know that once fall gets going here, its hard to stop the inevitable

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I don't see 90s either at this point.  But anywhere from upper 80s to low 90s are a possibility on Friday.  I'm liking the cooler August, but an above average fall would be nice since I want nothing to do with winter.

Some good thoughts PVT.

Jeremy

pvt- I like your thoughts on the upcoming weather!!  I certainly hope you are correct!  I would not mind cooler temps. through the rest of summer into fall.  Fall is my favorite season of the year, followed by spring, then winter, then summer.  ( I'm not a fan of hot weather- especially when it's humid. )  With the weather being as nice as it has been, it's been hard to stay inside and get chores done- I want to be outside as much as possible!  And the nights have been simply perfect for sleeping with the windows open....Ahhhhh!

ahh you changed the 7 day on me jeremy! how dare thee!

i agree brocksmama.

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Yeah...a little.  I just added to your response below, but Friday could still be 90.  I think 1 day this week will make a good run at 90 and right now Friday looks like the best chance.

Jeremy

It's actually chilly outside, it will be so easy for me to sleep!

Pvt - I am unclear exactly when Fay was classified.  Parts of the first advisory indicate it was over land while other parts of the advisory indicate it was over water.

Here is the link for the first discussion...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al06/al062008.discus.001.shtml?

Here is the part that makes me think it was over water...

"REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED"  ..."BASED ON
THIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF
THE ATLANTIC SEASON."

Here is where the Mona Passage is...  http://encarta.msn.com/map_701517924/mona_passage.html

But..then at the very end of the discussion, you have this which would indicate it is land based...

INITIAL      15/2100Z 18.5N  69.4W    35 KT...INLAND

Perhaps the best indication is not the first discussion, but the first advisory...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al06/al062008.public.001.shtml?

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

Based on this, I would say the center of circulation was over water with a great part of the storm over land.

Tough one.

Looks like a beautiful week upcoming.  Slight PoPs on Thurs/Sat, but the rest looks very nice.

Hey KCWX - you seeing anything else on Fay?  We livedin Sarasota FL for over ten years and have many friends there - haven't been able to reach them today!  I heard on NPR this morning (yea, I know - not that reliable!) that parts of Sarasota County were under mandatory evacuation. I lived there when Hurricane Elena stalled in the bay by us, went up to Tampa, stalled again, came back down - it was bizarre.  Didn't know beans about hurricanes and went to the BEACH until we got run off by patrol closing the bridge!  AWESOME HUGE waves though!  Anyway -- just wondered what your opinion was!  Since there isn't anything going on around here other than BEAUTIFUL weather!  :)  Thanks. Laura

I don't think Fay is going to be especially troublesome.  It is pretty disorganized from spending some time over land.  Per the NHC discussion, while not unusual, the central core of the storm is disrupted and a bit elongated.

I don't think there will be too much time for it to recoup when over water before hitting land again in Florida.

Likely a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane.  Slight chance of Cat 2, but this is nothing that most folks in Florida haven't seen before, and has had plenty of attention and warning.  Just a run of the mill tropical storm in my eyes.

All this said sitting hundreds of miles away from the impacted region, but my feeling is most folks will be aware, but not especially concerned.  There will be some localized problems, but otherwise, probably some welcome rain.

Thanks!

They're probably all out getting ready for a hurricane party!  :O)

Scott, cruise on over to Jeff Masters' blog on WU. People from SE florida are already complaining that they didn't know they'd be experiencing TS conditions, depsite being under TS watches and warnings. It's all the NHC's fault, etc.

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How is that possible?  Fay has been so hyped up.

Gary

two things to keep in mind with fay...
first, is that central fla does not need the rain, and fay is a rainmaker 4-12" seems likely.  fla cant take that kind of runoff, as you probably know hummerseeker, having lived there yourself.  
second, its taking almost the exact same track as charlie did back in '04.  not only that, but charlie also was not expected to be greater than a cat 1 hurricane this far out.  im not saying the nhc is wrong, but they often are on predicting strength of gulf hurricanes.  the area fay is in is literally the warmest part of our whole hurricane basin.  charlie went from a cat 1 to a cat 4 within about 95-100 miles of open gulf water...if fay slows down just a bit...

Rdub...I know..its crazy.  One would think if living in a tropical zone, it would behoove someone to proactively be aware of hurricane season and its developments.  It seems many would prefer to have it spoon fed to the exact timing and intensity of the storm in their backyard.

LOL..wait..that sounds familiar...HA!

I love Master's blog.  I spent 3 years learning from there with my tropical interests before coming into the mainland!  ;-)

PVT - good points.  It could bomb, but its structure really needs to get itself together..and there is a bit of mild sheer for it to overcome.  

As far as needing the rain, true..while Florida seems ok, I bet those to the north are doing a rain dance!

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_southeast.htm

Yea PVT - the "soil" is mostly sand, doesn't soak up too well! Not even basements to "collect" the extra water either!

My friends just moved to Florida and are freaked out by Fay they are in the Ft Lauderdale/Plantation area and they keep text messaging me about the storm "do we need to worry?" and Im like "NO" lol.

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Hail Jonathan,

Let's just keep paying attention.  It should be a big rain producer.

Gary

Most people should feel luck, it Fay was 100 miles (about) farther south when he/she developed, Fay could have gotten quite severe possibly!