NBC Action Communities

Gary,

Any possible rain amounts this week? These temps are fantastic and the 7 day looks great. Will we possibly have seen the worse heat and that be behind us?
Have a great day.

------------

I still think one more run into the 90s is likely, but the worst of summer is likely behind us.  We barely had one moderate heat wave.

Gary

i say we get a modest 1/3rd of an inch out of the whole shebang.  which, sadly, would triple our monthly total.

------------

Pvt Murphy,

We need to break the ice.  Suddenly it has dried out.  Maybe, this will produce more than what you are expecting.  There is a chance.

Gary

okay so when should this all start moving in. I was watching the news last night and it had some green here around 12 but it was late so I might have read the times wrong.

--------------------

The Powercast we showed had rain south of Kansas City at noon, but then bands started moving in during the afternoon.  We will update it tonight with the model of our choice.  We have different Powercasts to choose from.  Remember the potential is there for us to get less than a tenth of an inch.  So, don't set your expectations too high yet.

Gary

i am fine with whatever we get just dont want to get rained out of the zoo. so if we dont get much i am okay with that. my lawn would love some rain but its august you cant expect too much. should it still be highs around 80 tomorrow or if it doesnt rain lower than that?

----------------------

It will be somewhere between 78 and 84 degrees Wednesday, and then if it stays cloudy Thursday it will be in the 70s.  But, will it rain?  Yes, but just a little or a nice soaking?  It is difficult breaking a dry spell.  And, this is what August has turned into.

Gary

My parents on Sanibel Island reported a peak wind gust of 40 mph overnight and about 1.25" of rain. Nothing spectacular.

Gary,
When should we expect it to hit close to the 90's again. Will we actually get into the 90's? We are having a pool party over labor day weekend and it would sure be nice if we had warm weather to help keep the pool warm for the party. Other than that, I love the temps in the 80's with lower humidity. At least you can do stuff outside without feeling like you are wading through the air.
Audra in Lee's Summit

-------------

Audra,

There is no indication of 90s at this point.  I still think we will have three or four more 90 degree days, but likely no more than this.  If we get through three more weeks we may not see 90 again.

Gary

Gary, the three or four 90 degree days would help rewarm up the pool. Any chance that will happen before Labor Day weekend?
Audra

Anyone else see that Tropical Storm Fay has actually strengthened over the Florida Peninsula. Winds have now increased to 65 MPH, and has created itself somewhat of an eye on radar. Will be interesting to see what happens with this system when it comes back over open water tomorrow. I saw that the CPC said some models showed it making landfall in florida three times in the next week or so. Who knows if that would actually happen, but would be interesting for sure.

Fay.  Pfft.  Nice rain for those that need it.

We have had ULLs drop over KC with lower pressures than Fay.  I am not impressed.  

The only thing somewhat interesting is watching Fay bounced around like a ping pong in the steering flow.

wow...that is the most beautiful radar image of a TROPICAL STORM I have ever seen, it's amazing that it's not strengthening over land or that they didn't classify it as a hurricane. Amazing!

Fay is strengthening over land and is now up to 65 mph.

Alex

okay I just looked at satellite. Fay has developed a TRUE eye as it's moving over lake okeechobee. wow. Gary this is amazing.

-----------------------

I agree, and if Fay moves out over water tonight then she will become a hurricane.  She is close to hurricane strength right now.  But, will she move out over the open water?

Gary

Yes, Faye is intensifying over land, very unusual. Of course, south Florida is not exactly land; it's mostly the huge wetland known as the Everglades, so there is a lot of very warm water in the area.

Hey Gary the NWS is pretty much forecasting the same rainfall as you have.  Anywhere from 0.25" to 0.30" depending on which county in the area you look at.  Now that summer is in its last month, when might we get your autumn temp and rainfall estimate?

------------------------

The weather pattern is going to be in transition. So, issuing a long term forecast is tougher until around late October.  The new LRC will be setting up between October 1st and November 10th.

Gary

Fay is definitely an interesting thing to watch in this dry spell here, I to have thought how weird it is to see the storm looking as close to a hurricane as it ever has so far, only after making land fall in Florida, then again if a tropical cyclone HAD to choose a place to make land fall it would pick Florida since it is flat, swampy, and surrounded by warm ocean on three sides.  The slight strengthening over land is not as surprising to me as it would have been since I now have seen tropical systems do this on at least three other occasions that I can remember.  1. T.S. Danny over the southeast some years back, 2. Erin last year(tropical storm in OKLAHOMA?) officially no according to the experts, but it had the radar signature, the sustained winds at the surface ect.  if I was in it I would have probably said that I was in a T.S., 3. Fay over Florida.  There may have been others, but those are the ones I can remember right now.

Ahh Gary, tough is one of your middle names.  Coming up with the LRC was tough,.  I know forecasting during the autumn is one of the hardest times of the year, but can't you just give us your best estimate while we all await the new LRC?  I can guess, but what good is that?  I bet we have a better than average chance for a hard freeze the first 10 days of October and I believe we might be moving back into a cycle for another October surprise the middle to end of the month.  Just my guess.  Also, we are just far enough north and west and an additional 300 to 500 feet in altitude out here in Jefferson County KS than all of you in KC that this is the time of year when our weather starts diverting drastically from yours.

---------------

Actually, if this pattern holds on in a transitional state, then we could have an early frost in late September.  Jeff Penner has been thinking this way for a while now, but I think the pattern changes enough by the end of September that we will have lost our "long term" longwave trough just east of us by then.

I just can't tell you right now.  We will learn more and maybe next year be able to make a September prediction.  Right now it is anyones guess. 

Gary

With the contest, looks like Kcbrett82 is closest so far and is the front runner.  Kcbrett picked 8, 90 degree days and we've had 7 and the high picked was 97 and we had that on the 3rd.  Too early for congrats, but a pat on the back is due for being the closest so far.

--------------

I believe we have had 9 90 degree days since July 16th.  So, it is going to be an exciting last 12 days of August.

Gary

If the LRC really falls apart by the time we get into September than we may have occasional 90's off and on for awhile I remember some years where we can have some 90 degree days in October.  Although it likely would be a different kind of  "Heat" it would not last and would likely develop under lower fall humidity and be helped out with downslope winds as we will have stronger wind fields due to the strengthening jet.  That being said if we do get a cool fall pattern then summer might be over and we just don't know it yet.

Nick - Summer is over.  It ended when we broke the mini heatwave.

The LRC is already falling apart..slowly.  It is morphing.  Pieces of the new pattern are establishing.  

Blah blah blah..Gary and I will hash it out over the next month or so.

Jeff Masters is saying that Fay is actually strengthening over Florida, which he can't explain.  Really a weird situation it sounds like:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1033&tstamp=200808

------------------

I can explain it!  Conditions are very favorable for intensification with the only limiting factor being the fact it is over land.  But, it is over a very tropical marsh land today and the favorable conditions have allowed for strengthening.  When it moves out to sea tonight watch out, it should rapidly intensify, stall and threaten areas of Florida that haven't been hit by a hurricane directly FROM THE EAST very often.  Only ONCE since 1851.

Gary

What would happen if Fay took the possible course of going back across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico? Would it intensify there and make another landfall, or would the shear from the upper level winds cause it to fall apart?

Would Fay have done the same thing that Alison did if Fay moved over no land or very little land, then went strait into the gulf of mexico? Could Fay still become another Alsion like storm if stays over water long enough? In tresting little storm he/she is!

one of my contacts in SE seminole county has had max sustained winds of 30mph with a gust of 57 in the last squall to pass through.  they are still hours away from the center of circulation.  by the way...7 inches of rain already, and not even halfway through the event!

----------

Murph,

Do you think you will get 0.01"?

Gary

How strong could Fay get?  Cat. 2 or higher?  I only think it would be a strong Cat. 1 or weak Cat. 2.

Ok, I think Fay will only be a Cat 1 storm.  It will not be out at sea long enough to get any stronger.

-------

Jacob,

You may be watching too much of the Weather Channel.  It may stall and be out to sea long enough to become stronger than a category 1 storm.  I just updated the blog, with a frustrating update to our rain chance?

Gary

"I can explain it!  Conditions are very favorable for intensification with the only limiting factor being the fact it is over land.  But, it is over a very tropical marsh land today and the favorable conditions have allowed for strengthening."

Gary, I don't buy it.  Warm core cyclones by definition require water to sustain.  Saying that conditions are favorable except for water is like saying a conditions are favorable for a mesocyclone except for the lack of any sheer.  LOL.

Warm core storms typically need about a 150ft layer of warm water to intensify.  If ground water was enough, then the majority of tropical storms/hurricanes would intensify based on the rainfall ahead of the core.

There is no clear answer to what is going on with Fay.  I cannot think of any other storm I have ever observed that has grown like Fay in the time on land.  This is by far an outlier.  If the answer was as simple as what you presented, then far more storms would have done this...especially over Florida..which is no stranger to tropical storms/hurricanes.

This is bizarre.  Alas..however, this has been the week of bizarre.  This ULL that has been hanging out...that is mentioned above, is in many ways just as odd.  I think the NWS captured it best in its forecast discussion.

"IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOW UNUSUAL THIS CUTOFF IS...LYING
GREATER THAN 3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW AVERAGE"

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1

For those not statistically inclined...that means that this cutoff low lies outside of 99% of the norm.

Crazy week in weather.  I love it!  Lots of learning opportunities...

;-)

-----------------

Scott,

Well, I disagree.  The tropical storm intensified today because conditions became favorable for it to do so.  It didn't blow up like it would have if it were over the necessary water source.  But, it did strengthen.  It is weakening as of the 10 PM hour, but about to head out over the warmer water. So, we should see explosive development within 24 hours.

Gary

Gary, will Fay make it up the East Coast?  I know it's rained quite heavily in Connecticut the last couple of weeks and prior to that, Hartford had already received 18 inches of rain since June 1.  There could be lots of flooding in the northeast.

---------------

Fay will likely move into the Gulf of Mexico first.  So, let's see what happens in the next two days.

Gary

We will see what happens with Fay.  For us, I don't know.  It changes too much and this weather is driving me crazy.  I hope we get some rain little or lots.  We will see...

I also sent you an E-mail.

NEW INFO:

Fay is now weakening!  Winds are down from 60mph to 50mph.  Is this a sign?  Waters are very warm and once this storm moves to sea, it will likely become a hurricane but I don't think it will get past Cat. 1.  If for some reason it does, it would only be a weak Cat 2.  Just my opinion.

Here is the latest on Fay.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm6/stormtrack_large.html?from=news_maps

if this heads west how long would it take to get to Denver Colorado?

i think my friends are going to think i am crazy. one minute my emails say zoo could have rain, only a little rain, now could be more, now it might not be any. I have learned just to tell them the morning we are leaving, nothing is good for this month other than now casting.

--------------------

This has been a very tough month to get it to rain.  I should be learning my lesson.  Let's see how the next 24 hours pan out.

Gary

Gary-

I have a question for you.  What does a historical winter look like after a cooler and wetter than normal year?  I know that there are many factors that can disprove history, but I was just curious.

-Brian

Fay is now heading out to sea.  We will see just how far out it goes and see how strong it will get during the day on Wednesday.

"The tropical storm intensified today because conditions became favorable for it to do so"  

Yes, by observation, it did intensify, so I cannot dispute this statement...but the question is why?  How is it a warm core storm intensified over land?  Why this storm and not others?

I don't think it is an obvious answer.  I am not sure about your claim of "explosive development".  In tropical speak, that statement would indicate it should bomb.  With moderate sheer, I am not seeing it.  

This is the "anti" anticyclone.  It strengthens when it should weaken, and is very slow to build when it should grow like gangbusters.

Tropical storms/hurricanes can do some crazy things.  I think of Ophelia and Ivan.  

Both had bizarre tracks.  If I remember right, Ophelia did a complete loopty loop in the Atlantic before hitting the Outer Banks.

Ivan tracked into the Gulf inland only for the low level circulation to decide it didn't like land and completely separated itself from all convection heading inland to rebuild and make a second landfall again on the Gulf coast.  That one was wild as well.

I don't remember it quite as this track shows for Ivan, but even as such, that is INSANE...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ivan_2004_track.png

As odd as the track you describe above, how odd is it for a storm to make landfall in Alabama, Eastern Florida and Texas?

I do miss the tropics..but I can find the same excitement in lost ULLs in August wandering around the Southern Plains.  LOL  Even in Fall, how can one not get stoked about the first potential of the 540mb ULL driving south from Canada?

Spring - watching a strong baroclinic zone set up with upper air support and a driving surface low with a well defined triple point and a 50kt LLJ funneled right into it...

WOW...now..that stuff is FUN!

I am so happy to have seen this statement..."This has been a very tough month to get it to rain.  I should be learning my lesson.  Let's see how the next 24 hours pan out."

Stick to your gut.  The NAM should be considered meteorological contraband.  LOL..I digress.  I think your current projections are about dead on.

Hang in there!

Great input!

This summer cracks me up.  From June 1st to date, short of one monsoon at KMCI, temps are currently at 1 degree below average and without one day, below average rainfall at KMCI for the whole summer.

Other parts of the viewing area ended up way over average on rainfall during parts of the summer.  

However it goes down in the record books, I have LOVED this August.  My bank account appreciates it too with lower electricity bills!

---------

Scott,

The latest GFS, IF it is right, is a new pattern!  But, is it right?

Gary

wow, that was a great story on the tires! i had no idea, and i shouldnt be saying that cuz i work in walmart tire and lube in chillicothe. we just werent trained to watch for that! its unbelievable! im gonna talk to my shop manager to see if we can get that changed so all the techs can be aware of it.

---------

Randy,

Russ is very interested and if they make any changes let Russ know!  Thanks.  Now, is it going to rain.

Gary

Gary - yes, the GFS is right.  In pouring over surface data, I can already see the beginning of the change.  

I believe this ULL is the beginning of the new cycle and the end of the old cycle.  Think of it as the baton handoff between two cycles.  The ULL was spawned by the old cycle, but controlled by the new.  

This is the transition, but feel the new pattern has started with this ULL.

Could it be?  Could you see it now?

----------------------

Scott,

I don't think it is the beginning of the new cycle, but the beginning of the transition.

Gary

What would happen if Fay took the possible course of going back across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico? Would it intensify there and make another landfall, or would the shear from the upper level winds cause it to fall apart?