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Bummer Gary, even though it's been cool, we still need some rain. even if it's just a little. I've definitely noticed a transition in the pattern lately. anyone who doesn't believe in the LRC, shame on them. j/k all opinions welcome but I've just seen so much evidence of it this year. and now I see it starting it's end of the summer fall apart so it's just so amazing that no body else in the meteorological world can really see it when to most of us it's so obvious. Off to therapy, I'll check back later and hopefully there will be a change in Fay, considering it's all we have to talk about these days=P

Good morning Gary. I am curious. When you say: "Something is just very wrong for our local area right now" - is there anything you can detail for us? If you were to point to one or two things that just dont seem to me "working" what would they be?

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If you read the blog I am sure you can sense how frustrated I am. There are always reasons for why it isn't raining.  But, right now it is so close to being a large area of rain, and not just a large area of clouds.  What is producing the clouds is close to producing rain, the lift just isn't strong enough.  It is very difficult to explain how it can produce 5 inches of rain yesterday in OKC and then today we get sprinkles as it weakens and lifts north.  Give us this weather pattern today on August 20th any other year and I am telling you that we would have 2 to 3 inches of rain, but today we get sprinkles.  It is just very difficult to come up with a specific reason today.  Just look outside.  It should be raining.  I am just ready for a  new weather pattern.

Gary

So the 5 minutes I spent searching for my umbrella this morning that ALMOST made me late for the bus was probably all for nothing?  :)  Not that I'm complaining...the last thing I want to do is stand downtown waiting for my bus in a downpour.

Well the sun is shinning brightly here in St. Joe... at 9:36 a.m.
probably not a good sign... I just hope that this is not a vision of the future, GULP!

Well, if definitely LOOKS like it's going to rain. Out here in Lee's Summit it is looking pretty drab and dreary!!

Gary, can you produce a map of the area with probability for rain in various regions of the viewing area? Kinda like you do for snow?

"Something is just very wrong for our local area right now, and it is very difficult to explain"

Much like the "easy" answer yesterday as to why Fay strengthened over land, I will flip it around.

It is very easy to explain this pattern - its new.  Last year, a key to identifying the new pattern was based on a change of surface reflections.  This is mentioned in several blog entries this time last year.  This year is no different.  Things have changed.

I believe the transition to be much shorter than you, Gary.  I believe the transition to occur roughly at the mean between the summer solstice and equinox, but believe it only transitions for about two weeks in that duration.

This is why I believe the pattern starts closer to the end of August.  Think about it...

Look at the months this summer.  June was wet, and July was partially wet.  As we neared August, things began to fall apart.  Granted, this is also in line with climate norms, but surely the yearly LRC also falls in line with the general observations/theories governing climate.

That said, August is the month generally with the highest average surface/upper air heights.  Everything comes to a crawl in the atmosphere.  Warm temps prevail, moisture begins drying up, and persistence is the norm.  This would make sense based on how far away the jet is and the earth's relative position to the sun.  There just isn't much to drive any activity.

So, as we begin toward the end of the summer months - more to the middle to end of August, the jet begins to start dropping again.  Because of its "mini" hibernation, when it begins to drop again, things begin to happen differently.

Kinda like picking up a needle on a record and letting it fall again.  It will not land in the same spot it did when it was lifted.  It is new.  In line with this analogy, consider the time from when the needle is lifted to when it drops again to be the transition.  This does not take months.  This really likely only takes a week or two at the most.

So, here we are..the needle has dropped again.  We are seeing things happen differently now at the surface.  We are seeing things happen differently now in the upper air.  "Slideby" storms no longer are sliding by.  I am not confident in a warm dry spell soon to follow.  The new chapter is now being written.

If you look back in the blogs, you will find that you were also frustrated last time the new cycle ended and a new one began.  Having such an advantage of the LRC makes it a bit frustrating when it is changing or has changed, but alas..it has..and will soon be visible.

It won't be long now.  Hang in there Gary...soon you will be reinvigorated again when you see a bit more organization to the chaos!

;-)

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Scott,

This storm is sliding by, though.  The pattern is just now beginning to go through a major transformation.  And, my answer yesterday to Fay's strengthening was reasonable enough for me.  Conditions were very favorable for strengthening and Fay strengthened.  If it were over the water then it would have exploded into a hurricane, but it was over land.  And, now Fay just needs to move a few miles offshore and there will be some rapid intenesification. But, she is still hugging the coast.

Remember you are three years into understanding the LRC.  I am 20 years into working on it.  I have noticed one thing, and I will be able to show it to you this year.  The pattern that we are in now has very little to do with what the pattern will become in October.  Something major happens in October.  Make all of the assumptions you want.  I actually appreciate the thoughts, but I just see it differently.  We are in transition.  Oklahoma has had some very wet periods during this weather pattern, and they just benefitted one more time from the part of the pattern that has been wet for them.

Gary

Just got in from walking the dog and I can feel the dew point going up a little- it's feeling a little stickier out there.  Personally I don't have much hope for the rain today even though I see it headed our way.  I think it will disappear before it hits my house- that's why I gave my flowers a good soaking yesterday.  I hope I'm wrong!  I am SO loving these temperatures however- August can't get much better than this- unless of course it rains!  Dea at 68th Terr. and Oak.

Rain should come in this evening into the night time.  It won't be much, but could see up to half an inch in places.

Sat still looks ok for rain, but again..not a ton of it...maybe a quarter inch as it looks right now.

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Scott,

So, how much rain will we get tonight, and how much Saturday?

Gary

Looking at the soundings, it looks like a bit of dry air trapped in the lower layers above the cloud deck.  It will slowly work out as the column moistens, but it is gong to be a slow mover.

Tough to saturate when it has been so dry.

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Scott,

The dry air is not the reason for the lack of rain. It is an excuse.  There just isn't enough lift.

Gary

Scott- perhaps Gary needs an "Easy Button" when things get too frustrating for him!!  I picked one up for my husband yesterday!  He comes home from work just wiped out from all the "crisis'" he has to solve so I told him to take it to work and punch that button a lot!  I am excited for a new cycle just because it's fun to see what might lie ahead for next year, but hate to see this cooler, wetter cycle end.  Maybe this next cycle will be somewhat similar with some twists- one can only hope!  Dea

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Dea,

I saw those EASY buttons for sale somewhere the other day.  I will try it out sometime.  I think Scott will need one soon, since it appears we are beginning a battle today.

Gary

when your going though a dry spell its hard to break just ask the pepole in atlanta where i lived for most my life they cant seem to get anything even fay looks like it will stay south of them due to that high pressure off the northeast coast its just tuff to brake out of a dry spell thiers not always ganna be an answer why some times you just get bad luck hopfully will get some good rain today and break the dry spell beacause with all the rain we got last month and in june if we can get some good rain in august and september late October early november will bring some of the best leaf colors we have seen around here in a long time due to are normal late summer dry spells

Also gary what do you think about fay geting more organized over land?????????? that gose agenst everything we know about how hurricanes develup

one last thing do you think Fay will affect us at all?? it looks like it is going to head are direction in some of the modles

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It was organizing as she moved inland, but she struggled overnight.  She needs some warm water now.

Gary

Hi Gary-

I agree with you that August has been frustrating-

To a viewer like me it does seem like the pattern is changing- SW Kansas is getting great moisture- 3-5 inches in the last week- previous to that they were at 3-5 inches for the entire year- NO snow last winter-- so to me- something is changing- areas that were getting moisture- like here are not and areas that were extremely dry for months are getting some moisture- and have had 2-3 rounds in the last 2 weeks-- just my opinion..

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You have hit it on the nose.  This is the part of the pattern that has gotten western KS through Oklahoma wet.  The pattern may be in transformation right now, but not before now.  It is still the same pattern.  I am ready for a new one.  September is one of the wettest months on average, so maybe we will make up for this one dry month.

Gary

This is an exact replay of last week.  

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Yes, and this will be the third time this month that I have thought we would have rain for sure, and I will have been wrong.  I don't like that.

Gary

There is still plenty of water in the ground from the rain in June and July here in Marceline, and our grass is still green and lush.

Hey, at least we arent having a big heat wave right now. It seems like we should have one with all of this very dry weather, and its August.

There is one good thing I saw with all the rain we have had this Summer (excluding August) over here. The deer and Turkey will have plenty of vegetation to feed on, and this dry/cool weather allows the deer to get to other places they could not get to the past two months b/c of flooding to feed. This will allow the deer and turkeys to become get good summer nutrition, become fat, healthy, and have a higher survival rate this winter (depending on how harsh it gets).

I think this is going to be a great deer season.

Alex

the temperature has dropped over one degree in the past 15 minutes here.  the clouds seem lower than this morning too.  it looks like the energy is going to head east of our general area, up towards NE MO and west central IL.  i dont think we will get much more than a couple showers at best tonight. <.10" at kci.

im staying out of the argument between you two.  however, i cant see how this pattern we are currently in is anywhere similar to anything we have experienced this whole 'LRC' period.   the lrc this year has been characterized with many cool, wet times and a few warm, dry times...but no cool, dry times.  i stand by my statement i made the other day as far as 'patterns' go.

with any and all lrc biases aside, an outsider would say that there has clearly been a major pattern change across the whole country the past couple weeks.  

on a separate note, my friend in satellite beach has recorded just over 14.5" of rain since yesterday afternoon....my mom in SE seminole county has picked up just shy of 10" in the same time period...its not over yet either!

patrick airforce base, the official reporting station for my old stomping grounds near cocoa beach had 'officially' picked up 18" of rain as of 1000am our time this morning...including a whopping 6.5" IN ONE HOUR between 1855 and 1955 local time yesterday.  

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Murph,

Wow, thanks for this report.   I will use it in my weathercasts.  If you get any more reports let us know.

Gary

Hmmm... if the sun comes out this afternoon and we warm up a tad, would that held destablize things and give us more 'lift'?  I've been seeing the sun out intermittantly (and praying for rain because my garden is soooooooo dry!)  
Just wondered.  :o)  Thanks

Alex - you oughta drive out where I live, or the way I get to work - you wouldn't think too much about the deer survival rate!  I do agree they have more to eat - maybe that will keep them int eh woods or wherever they go when they aren't running across the road in front of me!  :) Laura

Frustrating??  Something wrong?  I don't get it.  We're a little dry yeah but whats new for summer in MO?  We're almost always dry in August.  Good grief, its 76 degrees outside and has been below 90 since...when?  12 days ago?  I wake up in the morning needing a sweater...in August.  And you guys are FRUSTRATED??? I'd like some rain like everyone else but sheesh. We should be thanking our lucky stars for this weather instead of complaining about it!!!  It could be dry AND hot!

Going to the KC Air Show this weekend.  As you know, the actual performances are based heavily on the weather.  Cloud cover, winds, ceiling height, etc.  What is your outlook for this weekend... specifically, what kind of effect do you think the overall weather pattern will have on the air show.  Even if we don't get any rainy, a cloudy day could still spoil all the fun.  

just got back to from the zoo and it was extremely sticky out. the group I was with all said we needed a shower we were sweating so much. thank goodness it wasnt in the 90s

I just saw 1 or 2 baby hummingbirds in my backyard, they have nest somewhere back there, either in my yard, or the lady behind us who has a nice jungle back there!!

Gary,

You are so right about it looking like it should be raining outside.  It's been a tease all day.  I thought for sure I'd be driving the kids to school because of rain but instead the sun peeked out.  Now there are dark clouds looming overhead but no rain still.  Although at noon there was a sprinkle...so sparse it was almost unnoticeable.  As for everyone that got all that rain in July...there were many days it rained in the area and my area got nada (NW Olathe).  

Gary – if I recall, the tone of discussion for the LRC has always been such that feedback is welcomed.  In that, certainly I have taken that opportunity.  I think we both would agree and as you have stated previously, LRC discussions are an ongoing debate.  

That said, in my thoughts above, I clearly define what I think happens, when it happens, why it happens and how it evolves.  

Here is further data to support it.

http://kcwx.blogspot.com/


To date, all we have gotten from you as to why you believe the pattern starts in October is one of two reasons:

“Something” happens or simply because you have defined it as October or November.  

Don’t get me wrong, certainly you have observed a great deal with this theory and have spent a great deal of time - but without clearly explaining how the cycle starts and ends, discounting other’s thoughts using the experience card seems disingenuous.  To imply that the research I have put into this would somehow be invalid due to the experience you have also is not fair.

So..be that as it may, it is an ongoing debate.  I continue to research and expect to be able to provide further quantitative analysis to back it up.  It seems easier to use data to show this rather than just dropping the “because I said so” card.

I really don’t see any of this as a battle, simply different people expressing their ideas.  Easy button or not, it is weather, it is a passion, and certainly plenty of opportunity to learn regardless of how long anyone has been looking up at the clouds.

Its gonna rain [somewhere in the viewing area]..so everything will be ok...

;-)

there is a very nice tropical wave(if not closed low) in the ITC in between the Cape Verde's and the Virgin Islands. It looks like it might be classified soon. well, if it were me I would classify it. I have no Idea what the HC is thinking.

pardon me...ITCZ

Hey, where's the afternoon blog update?

OK, well it lightly misted for a few minutes near my house, but not enough to really even wet the ground.  Sigh.  Mother Nature needs to put a little more effort into her showers!  Still hoping for more rain...  Dea

gary, cocoa beach is up to 21.01" officially at their nws sight as of 1300 our time, ovbviously they are running behind in reporting totals, judging by the steady nature of the heavy rains, they are probably at atleast 26" by now.

the actual NWS office in melbourne is reporting 16.84" as of 1345 our time...

windover farms(on the barrier islands near cape canaveral) was at 24.80" as of 1345 our time...

little rain in raymore!

Gary,

I was somewhat shocked to look at my rain guage this morning, somehow SW Grain Valley managed .28 bringing my monthly total to a whopping .61. Way below normal...but still above many places. I see however looking at the COCORAHS rainfall totals for Missouri that most places east of Sedalia picked up .50 to 1.00, which makes me wonder if that trough in eastern MO has dissipated yet, as these area's continually recieve adequate moisture compated to our area.  Though August can be dry, who would have predicted it to be this dry. I'm sure hoping September turns things around and we get some T-storms again.

Jeff
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Jeff,

There was a twisting band of moderate rain that went right through you between 10 PM and 1 AM. So, it makes sense to me.

Gary


Jeff