NBC Action Communities

Boy when I said 21 days I thought I was too low and now I see I am too high.  I'll put my 2 cents in and say yes this has been a strange summer!  Even though we need some rain I will not complain about these temperatures.  Who would ever think of an August like this?!  Just hope we don't end up with a September that cooks us!  
Keeping up with you late at night is getting exhausting.  Just can't go to sleep until I hear what your thoughts are.  Glad the Olympics end this weekend so I can get some rest.  Great job all of you for the yeoman's work you are doing during these long days!!!!!!

I said 21 days too Jeff. I doubt we'll even come close to that. at least I've gotten my 97 on the nose so far. but I don't care if I win as long as we don't get anymore heat spells. I'm just so relieved of the cool temps. i'm just waiting for the tropics to get active. yeah I know there's Fay but it just seems like storms have been real sporadic this year. I like when I'm constantly entertained by the tropics when it's boring season here. but like I said there is a nice looking system appearing to hold it's own in the ITCZ in the mid atlantic.

I can't believe the other two systems that came off of Africa after fay just dissipated!  I know you heard the same things I did Jonathan, "we just might have 3 storms at once" and we ended up with 1.  I just wish Fay would go further North and help to relieve the drought in North Georgia and the Carolinas.  Lake Lanier could really use a tropical system to help fill the lake a lot.  Otherwise we are going to hear about Atlanta suffering again this winter!
Regarding the number of days when I saw Gary, Jeff, Jeremy, and Brett have numbers from 18 to 22 I thought I was actually figuring this stuff out.  Now I know I am just as confused as the Pros!  That's scarry.

I hear ya, I was priding myself that I picked my numbers before the weather team picked theirs. yeah I don't really understand what's going on with the tropical systems coming off Africa but we're bound to get another one here pretty quick, but it's not good new for florida with that ridge sitting off nearby the state, unless someone else knows something I don't which there is a good chance but I know that's what brought Hurricane Andrew into S Florida was a nice ridge.

Just 1 more 90 I need!

Hey Gary,  I signed up on the last day of the contest but have not seen my name anywhere.  Am I still in?

in case if you missed the last comment on the previous blog gary...here it is:

gary, cocoa beach is up to 21.01" officially at their nws sight as of 1300 our time, ovbviously they are running behind in reporting totals, judging by the steady nature of the heavy rains, they are probably at atleast 26" by now.

the actual NWS office in melbourne is reporting 16.84" as of 1345 our time...

windover farms(on the barrier islands near cape canaveral) was at 24.80" as of 1345 our time...
August 20, 2008 4:46 PM

Gary, this might be a blog entry for another time, but ran across this weather story on Drudge.  What do you think about the farmer's almanac?

http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/031815.html

Catch ya later,
Tim

Well the sky looked so "promising" but this dry spell seems to have legs. It will be interesting to see what Fay does, but that is a ridiculous amount of rain, heck some places may make a run at our YEARLY AVERAGE for rain with just one storm system. Well here's to hoping that the pattern shifts a little more soon and brings us some rain again. It is weird feeling all of the cool air at this time of year and seeing  the grass drying up at the same time!

Oh, yea, and as for the contest I thought 16 days was pushing it on the low side and now I might have been way too high!!

Yes I have seen the promos!  Actually the accuracy advertisement you guys have on the web site is neat. It looks like you are staring really hard at your name and analyzing it!!

Wow Gary you are good! I can't believe you actucally did the baseball thing. You are amazing!

Gary, I noticed you said that Scott doesn't have a good fastball and Nick isn't a good free throw shooter.  Could that be our own Scott and Nick from St. Joe?  LOL!!! I really like it.

There seems to be an organized and more concentrated area of heavier rain just south of Branson rotating this way. What are the c hances it will make it here over night?

I had seen the baseball promo, but not the basketball one. They're both very nicely done.

My summer contest entry isn't looking very good right now. Guess that's why I'm still in the printing biz and ya'll are the ones on TV!

No, the guy shooting the hoops is not me, but my skills would probably be in the same range as his. LOL.
I never thought about the names of the other people in the commercial though!
looking at the radar, it looks like we are still in the running for a "sprinkle storm".;)

The promos are amusing. Thanks for sharing. The basketball shot is a nice one by the way.
Audra

Raining pretty steadily...and heavier in Oakshire (near Powell Gardens, MO)

Farmers Almanac says cold winter ahead.  Predicts above average snowfall in the midwest!

I love snow so this is great!


____________________________________________________________________





Households worried about the high cost of keeping warm this winter will draw little comfort from the Farmers' Almanac, which predicts below-average temperatures for most of the U.S.

"Numb's the word," says the 192-year-old publication, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.

The almanac's 2009 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder than average temperatures, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.

"This is going to be catastrophic for millions of people," said almanac editor Peter Geiger, noting that the frigid forecast combined with high prices for heating fuel is sure to compound problems households will face in keeping warm.

The almanac predicts above-normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February, and above-normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions should be getting an unusually wet or snowy February, the almanac said.

The forecasts, which are spelled out in three- and four-day periods for each region, are prepared by the almanac's reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon.

Weatherbee's outlook is borne out by e-mail comments that the almanac has received in recent days from readers who have spotted signs of nature that point to a rough winter, Geiger said. The signs range from an abundance of acorns already on the ground to the frequency of fog in August.

The almanac's winter forecast is at odds with that of the National Weather Service, whose trends-based outlook calls for warmer than normal temperatures over much of the country, including Alaska, said Ed O'Lenic, chief of the operations branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

While he wouldn't comment specifically on the almanac's ability to forecast the weather two years from now, O'Lenic said it's generally impossible to come up with accurate forecasts more than a week in advance.

"Of course it's possible to prepare a forecast with any lead time you like. Whether or nor that forecast has any accuracy or usable skill is another question," he said.

http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/031815.html

.05" of rain for Paola, not much, maybe a little more later?  have a great day!
--deb

i can't recall the details now, but i was following the almanac rather closely a few years ago and gary's long-ranger using the LRC was almost opposite of what they were saying. want odds on who was more accurate? lol....

meanwhile, unless it IS a much colder winter, the cost of heating your home this winter isn't going to be as bad as some were predicting last month. natural gas prices are dropping daily, storage is up and delivery unimpeded. Natural gas cost IS higher so far than last year, but not significantly. it's still all speculation so far for the winter heating months however and alot can change between now and then of course.

Propane users will see a higher spike and those who use heating oil (mostly on the east coast) will get hit the hardest. if you're interested in knowing more, visit the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration web site.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/

It's still night but I can tell there will be fog in low lying places, or was very thick fog earlier, my grass is DRENCHED!!!!

It's still night but I can tell there will be fog in low lying places, or was very thick fog earlier, my grass is DRENCHED!!!!

Go, Gary!!!!!!!!!

.15 inches this morning near 169 & Englewood!

Brings my August total to .4

not much!

-----------------

At least it rained.

Gary

Hey Gary, there was some heavier rain around Columbia. I have 0.09" in my rain guage here in Marceline. I think it will be just over an inch with all of this heavy mist that is falling.

Well, im off to the first day of school =[.

Alex

I think there is going to be a early winter,  I've seen some trees that are already changing color, and the leaves are falling!

----------------

Andrew,

How can you possibly know this?  Well, you may win the summer contest, so I better pay attention to your ideas. 

The weather pattern doesn't even set up until sometime in October.  So, I wouldn't pay attention to any long range forecast that comes out before November, if you believe in the LRC.

Gary

Scott- I agree with your comments yesterday on length of time and just because forecasting. Over the past year I thought your numbers represented an accurate time between the patterns. Did you base these numbers from the end of August change?

Andrew- driving home from the state fair we also noticed several trees changing, you could be right!

I've seen the new baseball promos and I think they are awesome Gary!  Great pitching arm! Hmmm....the Royals could use you!

Love the promos Gary- Do you want to play on our Basketball team this fall or is that your only shot??- LOL

I am amazed with the contest and the summer we have had- over 90 % of the entries look to be to high- WOW!

------------------------

I am really an inside player! 

Gary

"I've seen some trees that are already changing color, and the leaves are falling! "

The leaves are changing in my backyard and some are already falling.  I'm quite confused about this.

------------------

The trees are likely a bit stressed due to the lack of rain.  They aren't changing in response to the season yet.  We get some early browning of the leaves quite often at this time of the year when it dries out a bit.

Gary

Great promo's Gary and good luck with your nomination's tonight!! I still can not believe it is August.....it feels like fall. I keep waiting for it to change I am just sure we can not get away with this kind of weather for all of August, but it is looking like we might.  Maybe Halloween will be cool for once....usually it is humid/hot and the kids suffer in there costumes. Have a great day!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

-----------------

Thanks Monica.  I will try to let everyone know how the awards came out tonight when I get back.

Gary

I cant rememer any past years where aug. has been like this one. Have there been any? and if so what was the fall and winter like?

C in Raymore - Thank you for your thoughts.  It likely would alarm the average Joe if it was known HOW MUCH TIME I have put into the LRC and subsequent weather research.  I have lost track of how many hours I have put into it!

Even by my own standards..its kinda obsessive.  To answer your question, yes...I did base my thoughts from the end of last August.  

Food for thought - one of the main reasons I created my blog last year was to document discoveries, share ideas, and to go in more depth in what I was observing.  In that, while making some mistakes, there are some significant items in past blog entries.  One of those is my initial take of the cycle seen in late October and documented in early November.  [Click my name for my blog and all the archives].

This was done much sooner than what is currently claimed and was done in a different manner.  I believe it will work again this year.

This is where it gets tricky.  Gary and I violently agree on the LRC and its existance.  99% of the population does not even know about the LRC and a minority of people that do know agree with it.  That is a very small number [but growing everyday!]

Knowing, understanding, and using the LRC effectively is a BIG deal.  So - for this stuff, I am fortunate to have put in the time and to have had a patient Mr. Lezak.

Gary and I disagree on some of the finer points.  I agree with him completely that the LRC is very clear in November using 500mb charting.  

We do not disagree on this.  

We disagree on some very fine and subtle points as far as how the transition occurs and when.

All things being equal, I probably take up too much space in the blog going over the fine points where things would be better suited just focusing on those that don't see the pattern itself.

Because of the research I have done, I have accepted the pattern and have used it in forecasting, but need to nail down some of these fine specifics to make it more than useful in forecasting, but "special".

It is this drive, passion, and ulitmate desire to prove this thing out beyond map comparison that drives me to these debates.  While I know I tweak Gary time to time doing it, overall, it has gone along way in the communication, learning, and sharing of the theory.

I am just loving this time of year.  I am seeing things now I haven't seen in previous years.  I am seeing signs/keys in the atmosphere that would otherwise be not noticed if not keyed to look for them.

Quick thought on the Farmer's Alamanac.  I am not sure I would disagree with what it thinks for this upcoming year.  I haven't gone into details yet as the first cycle of the new LRC has not set up yet, but based on what I am seeing in the trends and progs...

For this area, I think it is going to be a wild year going forward.  I believe we will have more activity than this last cycle.  I do think it will be cooler and I do think it will be wetter.

Things could change...and for that I will wait before putting out anything further.

Gary and I won't agree on this...atleast not yet.

;-)

--------------------

Scott,

It's amazing how you think there will be more activity in this next year. This past year was wild with activity.  I, of course, hope you are right, but according to the LRC the pattern doesn't set up for another 5 to 10 weeks, so your assumption is just as good as the Farmers Almanac.  :)

Gary

Gary,

I told you that Fay would not be as strong as you said!  lol.

-----------------

Jacob,

You were right.  But, if she had moved just 100 miles farther east she would have become a major hurricane.  It is an amazing rain producer.

Gary

good post scott. when you have your forecast ready to share on your blog, let us know it's there. - mt

"The trees are likely a bit stressed due to the lack of rain.  They aren't changing in response to the season yet.  We get some early browning of the leaves quite often at this time of the year when it dries out a bit.

Gary"


True, and I do believe in the LRC. In olathe we are having a problem (not in our trees, but others trees all around) with those Tree worms that make a web in the tree. Anybody else have this problem? I hope I do when the contest!

Is there a chance the remnants of Fay may be able to come this way? Looking at the forecasted track it looks like it might.

"but according to the LRC the pattern doesn't set up for another 5 to 10 weeks, so your assumption is just as good as the Farmers Almanac.  :)"

I guess Scott you should change yours to SRC as not to confused Gary! Cant wait to see your forecast. I agree with the concept of the LRC and it does show SOME pattern. I don't like the above comment cause two years and one month are 100% different. This comment could be said of the LRC also by many meteorologist (ones who actually study weather not just report it). I don't get to involved in the debate on this but I read frequently.

One thing I would point out that frustrates me as a loyal viewer and reader. I do no like how when someone does debate something the quickness to defend. This month has been different as we have learned that the weather forecast has flopped day to day and acknowledge it has been hard to forecast. I know this can happen at anytime but I don't allow my daughter to be so defensive so maybe I just don't like listening to it on a blog to justify that we did say it an hour ago but three days ago we said something 100% different. In my opinion that is an off forecast. BUT I do enjoy 41 Weather more than any other station and think you do your best to really watch and understand what is going on. I agree the LRC has merit but I wouldnt be so quick to judge others on opinions they have. We all don't know everything no matter how long we study it.

******************

If we think it is going to rain 3 days from now we will tell you that.  If tomorrow we feel that same day looks dry then we will forecast a dry day.  We are going to give viewers the most accurate forecast and sometimes it means changing the forecast.  One thing that has not changed is the overall thinking that there would be some rain around today.  Last weekend a chance of rain was in the forecast for today and then that chance was continued this week.  I know some didn't see much or any rain, but many locations had rain and some around 0.50".  Hopefully this helps in regards to the forecast thoughts.

Jeremy

Jeremy, you are absolutely right.  The team must change forecasts as the analysis changes to ensure accuracy.

I think the rub is two fold.  First, there is a bit of difference between the different mediums of your forecast.

Let me explain...in the blog, there is more ready feedback and multiple updates in a day.  We have all seen the rollar coaster presented.  Heck, look back to an example last week with the blog entries titles themselves...

Will it rain - it won't rain, etc...

To the team's credit, you all are very candid and honest in your blog entries and replies to the bloggers.  But - understand as you all feel your way through the events leading up to a forecast, we are with you and we all ride the highs and lows to verification.  This is a MUCH different medium than some of the others..

Listening to the forecast on the radio, there is less information provided and it is more generic.  Your web 7 day forecast is even less informative.  Also, these both are usually one time a day shots.  Rarely do these change several times in a day.  By nature, these will tend to be more consistent.

Then there is the newscast.  We get it a few times a day, but generally get the same forecasts from 5-10PM as the data rarely changes enough to make a signficant change to the forecast.

But even then we get a pretty safe presentation of the data.  So..all this said, depending on what medium you follow, when you follow it and how you intrepret it, your forecasts can take on different shapes.  

As things do change, each of these mediums are done differently...so...a forecast that does change hours before an event can sometimes be difficult to accept as correct when depending on which medium you follow, if it was different before, then it looks like it was inaccurate.

Long story [longer?], we know you all work to present the most accurate forecast..be it weeks, days or even hours before the event.  

You all do a great job!

I think it is hardest to accept when we hear how accurate a forecast was when it was changed so soon to the event that most anyone could have seen it coming.

It doesn't happen often with this team, as you all are top notch..but when it does happen where you do change a forecast within a few hours of the actual event, it is hard to give credit for an accurate forecast.

The seven day forecast has had rain in this period throughout, but if you just followed the blog, and not the other mediums that you offer, you could reasonably believe it was a bust due to the up and down ride to this point.

Gary presented this on Tues -  a day before the event target

Trace or none:  1%
.01" to 0.09":  20%
0.10" to .25":  80%
0.26" to .75":  50%
0.75" to 1.25":  30%
More than 1.25":  5%

Based on this information and how you present it, it is left to the reader to verify accuracy.  There is not a verification point, there is a range, and ultimately, as long as it rains somewhere in the viewing area, it can be claimed accurate..but still...is it accurate based on what was presented?

The large majority of the viewing area got very little if anything.  In fact, based on radar estimates about half of the viewing area got nothing at all.  Only a very small part of the eastern viewing area got more than a few sprinkles

NWS also verifies the following


KMCI  - .04
STJ - Trace
Sedalia - .56
JOCO - .02
Kirksville - .01

Based on the table above, that would be considered a miss...but again, without any point of verification, I guess it was accurate for someone.

This is not to bash any accuracy.  Forecasting rainfall is a losing prop anyway.  Just hitting rain is good enough [too bad winter can't be this way!].  

I just put this out for the consideration of how things may take on different perceptions based on what you read/watch and how/when things change.

;-)

**************

One thing to keep in mind during the summer is rarely does a rain event provide rain to the entire viewing area.  So there will likely always be a location that may take issues to a forecast that had a high chance of rain even though half or more of the area saw rain.

Jeremy

I haven't seen the promo on t.v., just on the Web.  Pretty impressive shot:)

Fair enough, Jeremy.

i actually stated that I wasn't talking about this month I was talking about the long run. I guess it just validates how I feel and pushes me away.

***********

C

I was just responding to the short term forecast comment.  Just wanted to show how we look at forecasting and the challenges around a complicated forecast.  We always value your comments.

Jeremy

I liked the promos... Who knew Gary Lezak had madd basketball skillz.  x]

You guys should do more, but with Jeremy and Jeff and Brett, too.  Gary can't be the only accurate one.  =P


-Nicole

Great work on the promos. They remind me of one goofy, glorious moment from my sophomore year at Gallup (NM) High School During lunch one spring day, we had the hoops goals folded up and were messing around with a football, trying to swish  one goal from the stage behind the opposite end. It was finally my turn and I lucked into a make on my first toss, just as one of my coaches came into the gym.

Coach M wasn't averse to breaking school policy and he bolted to the foot of the stage, slapped down a 5 dollar bill, and said, "Five bucks says you can't do it again, Snyder."

Someone sent the football flying back from the other end and as I caught it, I said, "You're on," and fired without really thinking. It popped the net, I grabbed the 5, and scooped up my books for my afternoon classes.

Needless to say, the next time we were in the gym, I tried again ... and again ... and again. It was dozens of throws before I scored another make. By then, the five had helped me through a Friday night out with my girlfriend.

Moral (of a sort0: Whether lucky (me) or good (the KSHB meteorologists), "I love it when a plan comes together."

Walt Snyder

Gary you are the man!

Played golf at Nicklas Liongate last Wednesday.... saw you and the dogs out on your back patio, you were on the phone and was going to yell at you but by the time I got ove to the tee box you had gone back inside...

Anyway keep up the good work and nice shot... If only I could do that on the hole by your house... A hole in one would be nice, I've been playing for 40+ years and still haven't had one.

SS

-------------------

SS,

I should get the time-lapse going and see if we can see you. 

Gary

First- person action games helped study subjects improve their spatial resolution, meaning their ability to clearly see small, closely packed together objects, such as letters, she said. Game- playing actually changes the way our brains process visual