Good afternoon bloggers,
The weather pattern is still very closely related to the LRC of this past year. Remember, according to my theory, the LRC, the weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th and then begins cycling. The pattern is unique, every year is different than any that have ever existed before. The pattern then continues until it slowly falls apart in late August through September. The late August and September version of the pattern may be closely related to what we just experienced, and if we discover that this is truely the case then we will be able to make a forecast for early fall. But, something MAJOR happens after September and as we move into October. A new pattern sets up and begins cycling. So, the pattern that is spinning into chaos right now is likely unrelated to what will happen later this year. This is what I believe.
Now, onto this weekend. Tropical Storm Fay will be slowly moving west and heading our way. It will likely turn north and have very minor affects on our weather, but it is affecting the weather pattern. A cold front will be approaching but it may get absorbed into Fay's circulation and become ill defined by Sunday. The front should be right near Kansas City by Saturday evening. Dewpoints will likely pool ahead of the front and the models are all saying we will go way up to near an 80 degree dewpoint again by Saturday evening. Look below:
This next map shows the surface forecast for 7 PM Saturday. You can see the high pressure area to the north, and Fay to the southeast. As Fay weakens and gets closer the surface circulation around Fay may reduce the convergence on our front, but maybe after we have some thunderstorms near by on Saturday. However, there is a cap forecast to develop (warmer air aloft) just in time to make us wonder if thunderstorms will form near us Saturday or Sunday.
We will be tracking these developments tonight on NBC Action News at 5, 6, and 11 PM after the Olympics.
Have a great day!
Gary