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Well alright! We got some interesting things going on!  I was watching another network just a minute ago and one of the meteorologists had said they were watching a couple more developments in the Atlantic Ocean aside from Fay.


Do we have any chances of meteor showers this fall?

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We will have the usual meteor showers, and the Atlantic is trying to pick up in activity.  Peak hurricane season is just two weeks away.

Gary

What do you mean by, "Fay could wander west towards Texas, does that sound familiar"? Does that mean we could get some of that moisture? I guess I missed something or I am not putting something that has happened in the past together with that statement. Could ya help me out? :o) Otherwise have a wonderful weekend and I too will be glad to get back on schedule with sleep and the night routine.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Gary,
Do you think it will be raining in NKC by 9 am Sat morning?

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Rain chances are greatest Saturday afternoon.  Can't rule something out in the morning though.

Jeremy

First, I am not sure there really is an eyewall left right now with Fay.  It certainly is not clear on satelitte and radar shows maybe something developing, but far from organized in the core.

Still has nice outflow.

I am not sure the center of Fay gets over wather again.  If it does, it will be so brief and with it in the current state, i don't anticipate much happening.  I would be shocked if it develops to a hurricane.

As far as wondering to TX?  Fay won't even sniff TX.  I don't think anyway.  While it will likely miss the trough, it will be left with virtually no steering currents.  

I can see Fay hanging out in the panhandle of Florida for the duration before it starves to death.

So..I am not thinking it looks familar at all.  Short of a bizarre path and a common summer surface high in the SE steering Fay westward, looks unrelated to me.

I don't see the large anticyclone in the central/southern CONUS like Dolly and Ed.

I will look harder to see it.  Maybe if I squint.

I am amused by the continued persistence of the LRC definition in the last few blogs.

;-)

Hi everyone, I'm working in North Texas right now and was missing the blog so did a quick check.  Sounds like it's gotten very dry up there at the same time it's become very moist here, a complete flip-flop!  Highs were only in the upper 70s to low 80s earlier in the week during the rain, but have returned to more normal mid 90s now.  The computer I'm on here is not licensed to run Java technology so I'm unable to loop the satellite data re Fay, but just from looking at its current position I doubt it's going to get back over water enough to strengthen.  At best, the center may just graze the coastline.  I thought tropical cyclones needed water over 80 degrees to be at least 200 feet deep in order to obtain enough heat energy to strengthen.  If that's true, then Fay certainly won't accomplish that unless it takes a real SW jog.  If this job I'm doing becomes permanent I'll be moving to Texas soon.  If not, I'll be back in KC after Labor Day.  Even if I move I'll probably check in from time to time as sedsintx or some such moniker.  Have a nice weekend.

i dont see fay moving towards texas at all.  even if it did, it would be acting completely differently then the other two tropical storms to hit TX...which both acted differently from each other anyway.  the tracks taken thus far have been climatologically normal.  even fay, up until it started heading west again.  and the only reason that  happened was due to the complete lack of an eastern trough which has been prevalent most of the summer up until about 3 weeks ago.  its a stretch at best to suggest something similar between all of the tropical activity.

if we are indeed still in a weakened state of your theory, and it does provide you with a good idea as to what september holds then i would be interested to hear not only whats in our future in regards to september...but i would also like to see the similarities of our current weather with the rest of your cycling theory.  

so far, your theory has gotten a resounding F grade for this month.  not only has it provided an inaccurate picture of what august would look like, but you havent even been able to explain how it IS happening-at all! in fact, the only reasoning i have seen from you to people who want to learn more is 'it is what it is because i say so, and i have 20 years of experience with studying it, and therefore i dont need to provide proof...all i need to do is discount what anyone else says even if they have evidence to suggest otherwise just because...' if i had twenty years of studying something so specific i would be able to rattle off examples as to how any given 10 day span even would correlate with its associated cycle length-be it 50, 100, 150 days ago or whatever.  i am losing faith in your theory-not because its unreasonable or even not very well thought out...but because of the lack of professionalism in dealing with it, and not treating it like a scientific experiment, but more like toy that you play with that interests other people but yet you wont let them play with it too.  i have seen many examples of people doing their own research and bring possible solutions to the table WITH evidence, and you just say no without any reason.  sometimes i wonder if you even think about what some are saying or if you are just discrediting it all together before contemplating it.  it(your theory) will never gain any leverage or credibility until you put it to the test...you have yet to do so.  

this has turned rather negative and i didnt mean for it to.  bad day...

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PVT Murphy,

Wow, negative today aren't we!  LOL  I am just very lazy today to show the examples. I am sorry about this.  It is all words, and so I understand your frustration.  It is justified.  But, let's look at August.  The rain shifted to the south, like it has before in this pattern.  Oklahoma City had their wettest August ever recorded and there is still ten days to go.  We are cooler than average, and just happened to miss the rain.  There were three big forecasts for rain that didn't come through for us.  The first two shocked me, when I even went for 100% chance of rain and even though it may have rained, it wasn't much.  We never made an August forecast, and overall our summer forecast has been almost perfect. If it doesn't rain in the next 10 days and get us back to closer to August's average, then this month will have been a dry one, but overall the forecast for one moderate heat wave, cooler than average summer will still have been very accurate, including the wetter forecast, but just not this month.....SO FAR!

Anyway, you know I always post the comparisons.  We will try to do this next week so it isn't just my opinion you are reading.

I think you just need a good thunderstorm to make you feel better.  Another test is coming on Saturday.  Good luck!

And, one last thing.   Isn't Fay moving towards Texas right now?  Yes!  But, I do believe Fay will get close to the "long term" longwave trough and then move north and northeast, but not for a while.

Have a fantastic day.  I apologize for the statements with nothing to back them up other than I say so.  The pattern will slowly shift and change in the coming weeks.  I will back up what I say with graphs, maps, and pictures.

Gary

From what Gary has written in the past, I got the impression each year's LRC basically faded away by August as the atmosphere got ready to transition into the new LRC.  Sounds like Gary has modified his stance somewhat.  Northern hemisphere weather patterns are so weak in August it would seem difficult to impossible to correlate with the LRC.  If the LRC is valid, then at some point one must break down entirely before the new one can be established.  If your car is moving forward, then in order for it to go in reverse it must at some point come to a complete standstill first.

If pvt_murphy's comments about this month's weather not matching LRC prognostications is valid, that in itself would seem to lend credence to the argument that with the LRC in such a weakened or degraded state it can not be used reliably to issue long-range forecasts in mid to late summer.  Just my two cents worth.  I still think the theory could be valid for winter and spring and utilized for long-range forecasting accordingly.

http://www.moberlymonitor.com/state_news/x144224142/Meteorologists-weigh-in-on-global-warming

Please Don't delete this link, it has quotes in it from Gary!

Hey Gary, I think the LRC is still in good working order! It has been quite cool this August, and even though the rain in the viewing area has been pretty light, there have been many places near us as you mentioned that have had quite a bit of rain this month. Oklahoma City has set their All-record, Columbia, MO area is above average now this month as they just got a lot rain Thursday morning...Looks over 6 inches in spots.

That is close enough to me to validate your further prediction of cooler and wetter than average August.

Alex

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Alex,

And, August isn't over yet.  We had enough chances for us to have around 2 or 3 inches by now.

Gary

"The rain shifted to the south, like it has before in this pattern."

When?  Not trying to be a cynic..just wondering when it happened in previous cycles.

Summer may end up being less than one degree below average.  Is that validation?  Is one degree below mean really what was intended?  Sure it will validate...but in thinking of cooler, I guess I have more than one degree in my head.

Seems normal to me.

LOL..anyway...the work continues...[thx pvt]

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Scott,

It is normal!  3 degrees below average is normal!  5 degrees above average is normal!  But, 1 degree below average is ONE DEGREE BELOW AVERAGE, but still normal! 

And, yes it validates a forecast of below average temperatures and only one moderate heat wave. 

Gary

gary did you read the story?

Gary, I think you mentioned in a previous blog a week or so ago that temps from the 70s to 100s in the summertime would be considered normal by you.

I guess I think of the temperature in a normalized way where all temps within one standard deviation may be normal and all temps outside that would be considered abnormal.

I haven't done the math yet, but it is pretty straightforward.  My gut tells me temps above or below 10 degrees from average would be outside that realm of normal.

All the temps within one standard deviation would be that magical 68% of the mean...and that seems like the norm to me.  Going out as far as you noted would bring you likely near 3 standard deviations which would encompass roughly 99% of all possible temps.  

That doesn't seem normal to me.

LOL...anyway..enough banter...there is work to do on the LRC!

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Scott,

I am just saying it is normal to have a 78 degree day in August.  It is still 10 degrees below average.  It would not be normal to have 5 straight days in the 70s in August.  This is all I am saying.

Gary

Dang I lose, I thought I had a good chance!

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It was looking good for a long time.

Gary

Stormdog - Well, for goodness sake, it is August, and the jet is far north as always - that means the pattern from Spring is much weaker, and hence a greater chance for more deviance from the expected.  I too have "observed weather for 20 years", actually 30 plus years, and Gary's theory really has merit - like other forecasters, he sometimes seems to just go with his computer model of choice - something I disagree with - I am more a "look out the window, look at satellite..." sort of non-meteorologist, but I believe he's onto a valid theory, but like other theories, such as Einstein's, it takes many years to come to fruition.  Plus, he isn't just focused on theory and study of that, but has to deal with the public and forecast on TV day to day - not easy to do.

BTW, I also have felt that the courses charted by other tropical systems, for whatever reason, have been somewhat repetative, and in other years this also has happened.  Remember the hurricane season when Louisiana and parts near often seemed ground zero.  Also,  remember, this would not be the first storm to move southwest across Florida into the Gulf - remember the storm that devastated New Orleans?  It too moved southwest across southern Florida into the Gulf...so this isn't exactly a new pattern.  Once into the Gulf, we'll see...


Dog

Ahh, the weekend

IT'S FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE BIG TOWN!!! that's worth a post don't you think, those of you who are losing faith in the LRC right now- it's understandable but if you were a believer before, remember what starts happening about this time, the pattern starts to get clouded up a little bit by the new pattern beginning to develop. I've noticed it too but I am still a strong believer. Right behind you Gary Lezak! have a good Friday evening everybody!

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Jonathan,

Have a great Friday Night in the Big Town.

Gary

Fay Fay Fay Fay Fay, she always seems to strengthen OVER land!

FAY FAY GO AWAY!!!!!!! wow she don't know where she wants to go interesting to track thats for sure!!! Have a good friday night in the big town,and congrats Andrew for leading the contest so far.

Andrew Stafford, CONGRATULATIONS!!! at least for a few days.  Do you ski?  I'm right with the high temperature thus far, but I don't think there will be 5 more temperatures at 90 degrees or higher.  Skiing is not my cup of tea, but it would have been fun to have my wild guess be right!!

Congratulations to you, Gary, for being quoted by the Moberly paper!

Gary, it looks like thunderstorms are trying to form on the cold front in nw missouri you can see the cold front on topeka nws radar looks like it is south of marysville,ks extending into se nebraska and northwest missouri I know you showed futurecast and said 6am maybe a few thunderstorms maybe it will happen.

Gary,

In Wednesday's blog you said there was 11 days left in the contest, which means there should be 9 days in the contest left. What is the date when it ends again? I thought it was August 26th.

Thanks everybody for the comments! I hope I do win!!

This may or may not be weather related but did anybody else see what looked like a shooting star that didn't burn out quickly?  I was driving on 71 north looking towards downtown (around 39th st) and I saw it.  I'm thinking it was around 8:50 which made me think it wasn't dark enough to see that yet. Just wondering.

-Brian

Twister11-

I liked the article.  I really like the line that said that even Lezak couldn't predict that.  It just shows that Gary did such an excellent job on the summer forecast that he is the go-to man!

-Brian

Well, I won't win but since that means we're having an unusually pleasant August, I'm "cool" with that. (Not to mention, I can't ski!).

Good luck to Andrew.

I am rooting for you Andrew...Good luck!!

Alex

"Tropical Stormy," huh?  You got the dogs drinking pina coladas now?

WOW, the KCI forcefield is finally broken. Coming down in buckets, and the storm is so active electrically, well, nevermind sleep for me. A lightning strike hit so close, it shook the house. My water bill will now be a little less than it was going to be. Happy Lawn.

I am counting 11 days at KCI.  According to P hill's website...7/7, 7/17, 7/19, 7/20, 7/21, 7/27, 8/2, 8/3, 8/4, 8/5, and 8/22 all 90 or above.

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Yes, but the contest started on July 16th, so it  is only 10 for the contest.

Gary

After careful analysis, it's been confirmed to me that tropical storm Fay is on a speed binge.  That storm just won't quit.

I'm up Smokey (my dog), thanks, I really wanted to wake up early on Saturday.  We needed this though, I'm thankful! Yawn, I really am.

I headed out for my walk with Windy at 4:45, could hear thunder in the distance, some lightning way off but nothing really happening here.  We stayed close by as the wind kicked up.  We headed back home early, by 5:15, still threatening but seems to be breaking up and not reach us here in Paola after all.  As much as I hate rain, we do need a little....a little not an all day event on a Saturday with the Roots Festival on on the Square!
--deb

just north of 1/2 inch in good thundershower in st jo, good dog walking weather,taking care of 5 of them this weekend.

Wow Jon64506, five!  While we were in NYC our 3 were here with a friend's dog to make it 4 and we thought that was more than a houseFULL!  Good luck, enjoy your walk (S)!

Nice rain in olathe!

Yeah! It is thundering and raining in La Cygne. Pastures need a good drink.

Ohh, its an MCS, did Gary or anybody think this would happen?!?!?

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Gary mentioned thunderstorms would be possible this morning.

Jeremy

so far 1.5" in Easton, MO

Jennifer

  Only ten 90-degree days at MCI.  Wow.  But you do know that the station has been reading relatively cool relative to surrounding sites during this warm season.   Whether that was a real micro-scale phenomenon (perhaps wet soil from the rainy spring) or instead something was goofy with the instrument ... I don't know.  On frequent occasions, MCI max temps were suspiciously low while its dewpoints were alarmingly high.  Though the obs have settled down a bit in the last week or 2 (again, perhaps because the soil is drying out), there was definitely an issue there during much of the late spring and summer.  I encourage you to examine the data.  You'll see it.
     And also, why do you count MCI as the 'representative' temperature for the viewing area, when many of us live 30+ miles south of the airport?  How many 90 degree days did MKC, or IXD, or LWC, or even your TV station have this year?  The answer is alot more.  You need to mention that.  I know you guys like it cool, but please try to keep things as unbiased as possible.

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We are always unbiased and very often try to show many of the automated stations around the city.  Some areas have had more 90 degree days than KCI.  But look at how many 88 or 89 degree days KCI has had.  That is basically 90 degrees, so 1 or 2 degrees more and our 90 degree days would be noticably higher.  Downtown almost always has more 90 degree days and that is not a surprise.  Lawrence has slightly higher average highs in the summer, so they should also have more 90s.  I really don't think the censor at KCI has been off this summer.  When the dew point hit 80 there earlier this summer it was also 80 in other spots.

In regards to using KCI as the official temp.  If we used Lee's Summit or Gardner then we would get the same argument from people to the north saying that many people live 30+ miles from the 'representative' temperature.  In weather forecasting you can never make everyone happy, but we give our best effort everyday to represent everyone:)  Trust me...I don't like it cool.  I don't think you can find a line where I have ever said I like it cool over hot:)  I love summer!

Jeremy

Thanks, Jeremy, for the timely response.  If you check the data, you'll see that MCI max temps were unusually cool relative to the surrounding sites during this warm season ... by about 1 degree in the monthly mean.  Adding that up over a summer yields a ton of CDDs.  Trust me, a 1 degree *change* in bias is HUGE when averaged over a month, let alone 2 or 3.  You're right, LWC typically has slightly higher max temps than MCI, but not by the amount we saw earlier this summer.  Same with MKC and IXD.  It's the *change* in the gradient between the stations that's noticeable.  The ASOS at OJC, which is in a low lying wetland in case you've never been there, read warmer than MCI in July by nearly half a degree in the max temps.  That's highly atypical !

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I guess this is something you may want to ask the NWS about.  Maybe the censor is off a bit.  In my opinion, there is a small difference, but nothing alarming. 

Jeremy