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Great August weather & sunset pictures

Good morning bloggers,

Did you see or experience the sunset last night?  I have posted a couple of pictures below that I took after the sunset. 

There are two major parts to the LRC.  One is the "long term" longwaves.  The other is the cycle.  The summer forecast, that we issued in May, had nothing to do with the cycle.  It had everything to do with the position of the "long term" longwave troughs and ridges.  We made a great forecast based on our knowledge of this.  Remember, there has been a "long term" longwave trough east of Kansas City.  It was strgon enough that we had confidence to forecast the highly unlikely development of an upper high inside this trough.  Well, summer is almost over, and an upper high never formed northeast of Kansas City this summer.  And, we will end up near average on rainfall for the summer months, and a bit below average on temperatures.  August should have had 2 to 3 inches of rain, and even though some spots had over 3 inches of rain this month, overall it has been rather dry in most spots.  The forecast for a cooler/wetter summer really did come through.  We will be talking a lot more about the LRC as the new weather pattern develps this fall.

Apparantly (Ellen and EJ just talked about it on News radio 980 KMBZ), the Farmers Almanac is predicting a colder than average winter with above average snowfall.  I hope it's right!  But, you know what I believe.  The weather pattern doesn't even set up until October, at the earliest, so any prediction for the winter that comes out before November is based on something that I don't know about, and these forecast have been shown to be the least accurate long range forecasts.  The Farmers Almanac issues their forecasts a year in advance.

I took the above picture about 15 minutes after sunset last night.  The sky had a rare grey/blue tint to it with some altocumulus clouds below (10,000 feet up), and some very think cirrus or cirrostratus clouds above creating the interesting color combination.  The dry August air mass also contributed to the ideal conditions for this look to the sky Sunday evening. 

I tried to get Breezy and Stormy to pose for a picture.  Just a few minutes after the above picture was taken an orange glow appeared and I snapped this picture of Stormy (left) and Breezy (right).

The Olympics are over, so NBC Action News is back on at 11 AM, our Midday newscast.  And, our 10 PM newscast returns tonight as our schedules will be getting back to normal.  We will be tracking the changing weather pattern and our next chance of rain.  There is no chance of rain today!  High pressure is again in control.  The record low tonight is 53 degrees.  We could make a run at it.  Freeze warnings are in effect for northern Minnesota this morning, in August! Have a great start to the week.

Gary

Published Monday, August 25, 2008 6:18 AM by glezak

Comments

 

irishrover said:

Beautiful pics!  I missed the sunset last night because I was at Springsteen and the E street band!  AWESOME concert!!  And I've very glad you will be back to normal schedule.  I've missed you!  I can't afford to stay up that late and get up in the morning (boy am I dragging today!).  Now, if you could talk to Mother Nature and move that 91 down to 81 and throw in a couple of showers, I'll have an awesome week! (I know, I know, it's August... but hey, it been unbelievable until now... I can dream!)

----------------

I am glad you enjoyed Bruce and the E-Street band.  Have a great day.

Gary 

August 25, 2008 7:11 AM
 

Luthur said:

Did you see the tornado footage from the Denver suburbs?
August 25, 2008 8:32 AM
 

StormWyndd said:

Morning
What a great doggy portrait.  I know my dogs are thrilled with these cooler temps.  My temp is sitting at 64 this morning and for August 25 it's WONDERFUL!  Good job! (KCP&L must be annoyed since all the a/c's are off so much lately)  
Now, if you could just put in an order for some decent rain chances - the Missouri side really missed out over the weekend.
Thanks
August 25, 2008 8:41 AM
 

frigate said:

Gary,

I was very dissapointed to come back from being out of town over the weekend to only .03 in the rain gauge over here on the east side. Looks like north and west got some nice rains though over the weekend...good for them...but anxious for our turn over here. Doesn't look like our chances are very high either for Wednesday...bummer.

Jeff
August 25, 2008 9:30 AM
 

jacob said:

Freeze Warnings!!!  That is so weird!  I say bring it on down!  This morning felt really good.  I wore a jacket to school.  Anyway  about the winter forecast, I would love to believe it, but something tells me otherwise.  We will have to see.  Like Gary said, it is way to early to say what will happen this winter, but it is something to look at considering that it is only August, and there are already freeze warnings for parts of the northern midwest.  The weather pattern sets up here in a few months so we will find out soon enough if this is a sign for this winter season.  I would love if the farmers almanac is true.  But it doesn't seem to be very accurate in my opinion.  The LRC is by far the best way to go.  

Also, great pictures Gary!  Breezy has really grown up!  The sunset looks really beautiful.  You should show these pics on the air today!

And finally, you guys did a fantastic job on this summers forecast!  Everybody on here that knows me, knows that I am not a summer person, I am a huge winter person, and this summer was very good from my point of view.  I love having morning lows in the 50's in the middle of summer!  I showed my parents your accuracy promos, and they loved them!!!  They thought they were very funny and interesting!  

Have a wonderful day everybody!

Jacob
August 25, 2008 9:30 AM
 

weatherwunder said:

Gary, it will be most amazing if you can ever get a picture of Stormy and Breezy with that most beautiful backdrop that will top the one in the blog today!!!  The other picture is very unusual and very beautiful!

Now I'll go back and read the blog!!!
Edna
August 25, 2008 9:44 AM
 

jacob said:

There is now another tropical depression.  They say it should become a tropical storm by tonight or tomorrow.  Here are the details...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html#a_topad

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143912.shtml?5day#contents
August 25, 2008 10:06 AM
 

jimmymac said:

Gary, when you mention "long-term longwave," at what level of the atmosphere are you referring?  Does long-term mean it is consistently there for months, or that it is constantly changing but tends to reappear in the same place?

--------------------

The pattern is constantly going through different phases, but a "long term" longwave trough or ridge is the mean position in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.  There has been a "long term" longwave trough centered near or just east of St. Louis north into southern Canada since October.  It isn't there every day, but when stronger storm systems form they reach their peak strength in the "long term" longwave trough position. We will be going into more detail as the new weather pattern sets up in October.  What has existed for the last 10 months is breaking down and a completely unique weather pattern will evolve with new "long term" longwave positions setting up.

Gary

August 25, 2008 10:37 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Fay Jr.?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Can't imagine what Florida may be in for given this two week time window.  Possibility of 30+ inches of rain in a two week period?

That is pretty insane.
August 25, 2008 11:00 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Gary,
With the exception of our Excessive Heat Weekend with our amazing dewpoints. our summer has just been amazing, although it's gone by about the speed of light. I believe you nailed this summer forecast with amazing accuracy,(I have not read the posts above so my next statement does not reflect anything today) people make poke and prod at you at how you, Jeremy and the rest of your team do your forecasting, but there is definitely a reason why I didn't watch ANYBODY else during the Olympics, or any other time period. Keep up the great work and let nay sayers be nay sayers, like I've said before. With all the other cycles that this planet has, why is this one so hard to believe. Much love to ya!

Jonathan
August 25, 2008 11:02 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

P.S. to my previous comment has anybody noticed the "eye" feature on TD seven? wow.
August 25, 2008 11:06 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

considering the projected track, it doesnt seem it would take the exact same path as fay...although, since my old stomping grounds(cocoa beach) reported over 33" of rain from fay, they certainly dont need another storm of any size no matter what direction it comes from.

if you look at the visible sat. shot of the depression, it already has a well defined COC, almost resembling an eye wall already

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
August 25, 2008 11:06 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

It is looking pretty good on the sats..I would love to see another QuikSCAT.

Cocoa is a beautiful place.  Took a day trip there from a conference in Orlando.  Ate at some resturant on a peer.

Very nice.
August 25, 2008 12:14 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

TS Gustav
60mph

nhc will update shortly...
August 25, 2008 1:10 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Friday night/Sat. Morning was AWESOME!!  I stayed up until about 4 a.m. watching the heavy thunderstorms slam my area with heavy rain and strobe light like lightning!!!  Then this weekend settled in with more of this unsummer 2008!
Actually, we have vacationed in northern Minnesota before and this is very close the the weather that they would get this time of year( the last two weeks of August is usually when we would go)!  WOW if we were vacationing there this year I might have been able to witness my first August frost!
August 25, 2008 1:20 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

WE NOW HAVE T.S. GUSTAV!!
August 25, 2008 1:27 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Gustav is a good looking storm.  He is deepening fairly quickly with some strong winds already nearing hurricane force at the surface.

Pressure is a bit high [997mb], but suspect it will drop or is already dropping fairly quickly.

August 25, 2008 1:52 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

Gustav's MCP is 996mb at the moment...that was Fay's lowest central pressure in her entirety.  if it indeed takes even a similar track to Fay i would be concerned for many people.  there are still parts of central florida under 4 feet of standing water.  the st. johns river hasnt even crested yet.  
August 25, 2008 2:19 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Oddly, from afar, I typically don't pay much attention to Tropical Storms.  Fay was only of interest because of its path.

That said, I don't live in an impacted region, so my lack of interest is probably ok.  If I lived down there, i am sure I would have a different opinion.

So, since it is only really hurricanes for me that are of interest, 996mb is just a fledgling.  I will likely get more interested when we get into the 970s.

That is my weather interest side.  From my humanity interest, I am very concerned with, be it a hurricane or other, dropping more rain on a very hard hit area already.

[You could only imagine my keen interest with Wilma when it dipped into the 890s and below!]

Something to watch as things are pretty boring here...[except for the LRC trending]

August 25, 2008 3:06 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

WOW

Fay is still drenching the South. Tropical Storm Gustav has formed, and Hurricane Warnings are posted. If Gustav takes a similar path as Fay I will be very woried about the flooding.

Did you guys see that amazing viseo of tornado in Colorado. That had to be my number 3 coolest tornadoes I have seen.

Alex
August 25, 2008 3:47 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Gary or anyone...
I just talked to the local fire department (a long story) and they said the next chance for rain was Sat. Say it isn't so! We are having a pool party on Sat. here at the house. It would not be much of a pool party of it rains!
Audra in Lee's Summit.

-----------------

Audra,

There may be a chance on Saturday, but don't worry about it yet.

Gary

August 25, 2008 4:13 PM
 

marlina10 said:

I ,too, missed the sunset because we were having a blast at the Springsteen concert! Best concert I've ever been to, those guys put on one amazing show!!!
August 25, 2008 4:54 PM
 

Stormdog said:

Stormdog to Frigate - The BSHE does have some anecdotal support, in my records, behind it - not sure why, but more often than not (not always Gary), but more often than not, my Blue Springs gauge ends up with much less than other places not too far away.  August has been great for temps, very poor for action at my place - that's all I know.  Other places are other places, and don't matter much to my weather enthusiasm.

Dog (BSHE - Blue Springs Hole Effect - I should copyright that!)
August 25, 2008 5:10 PM
 

chfs327 said:

I believe I put out something a Week ago saying that I had a Gut Feeling that We would have a Very cold winter with above average Precip.

Infact, I put it on a Weatherblog that I made.

http://weathermankumke.blogspot.com/ This was made Saturday Aug 16th when I had that Feeling.
August 25, 2008 6:07 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I'll keep my fingers crossed that it does not rain on Saturday! Thanks Gary!!
August 25, 2008 6:37 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

kcwxguy- I too went to Cocoa Beach ( many years ago while we were vacationing in Orlando ) and we ate at a restaurant on a pier- maybe it's the same one- even after all these years!  I just remember the great food and the beautiful view of the ocean at night!  Sigh... Dea
August 25, 2008 7:32 PM
 

Dwight said:

GAry, I heard of possible rain now on Wed. Where would that be coming from? Is it the storms that are forming in Colorado and heading into Kansas tonight?

---------

The chance is extremely small.  It would be coming in from Nebraska.

Gary

August 25, 2008 8:13 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

OH MY GOSH!!!!  The Dog Whisperer was SO close!!!!   I would have loved to have seen him!!!  My dog could seriously use his help!!  Can't wait to see this thing you've put together for September!!  Sigh.   Then I heard Obama was close by too...  Just my luck I missed them both.  Oh well at least I've got this great weather to sleep by tonight!  Sigh.

-----------------------

We will put something special together towards the end of September.

Gary

August 25, 2008 10:49 PM
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