NBC Action Communities

I love watching the Dog Whisperer.  How neat to have him help you out!  I have a little min pin that could use some help!  This weather is definately boring but I am happy with it as it is getting us ready for fall.  I see the chances for rain in Friday are at 30%.  Are you thinking more more likely morning or afternoon?  My daughter has her first real dance performance at Santa Cali Gon in the Independence square at 5:30.  Hope it is dry!  Everyody have a great day!

--------------

We will try to time out the rain on our weathercasts tonight.  It is a bit too early to tell at this moment.

Gary

It is beautiful weather but some rain would be nice. So are you going to be on a segment of the Dog Whisperer?? I think I have seen him work with the designer Nate (?) who is on Oprah all the time. If that is him he is really good at what he does!! Have a great day!
Monica

----------------

Monica,

I learned so much from him yesterday.  The seed has been planted for him to come back to Kansas City to work with Breezy on a Dog Whisperer episode.  So, maybe in the next few months.  But, we shot some great footage that we will show on NBC Action News later in September.

I love it when you come with a comment right after Momof3girls.  It is Momof3girls followed by Mamaof3girls.

Gary

Wow, what a great opportunity for you to meet Caesar and get some tips.  Please if you ever get a free minute share those tips!  I still have some trouble with Windy with some dogs and anyone that stares into her eyes, she feels threatened by that, I think.  This weather has been beautiful, boring is nice!  I love hot weather and humidity but seem to be in the minority with that so it's nice to have my staff happy because the weather is nice.  Have a great day!
--deb

-----------

Deb,

We will go over his tips sometime soon.  I am going to look at our interview sometime this week. He is amazing.

Gary

Gary I know you're using the term "boring" for our local weather put take a look at this graphic from the National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

By Sunday Gustav is going to be in the Gulf of Mexico and this COULD bring massive devastation to people in the gulf.  Then on top of that there are 3 other systems out in the Atlantic, 2 of which have a good chance of developing into hurricanes in the next two days.

What the heck is going on out there in the Atlantic right now?  I know that doesn't directly effect us in the Midwest, but that's got me worried for all sorts of reasons.

------------------

Yes, I am enjoying this nice weather.  And, it is really rarely ever boring to me.  It is something I pick up from the bloggers.  I will concentrate on the tropics until our weather changes.  We are now just two weeks from the average peak of hurricane season.  It is getting active now.

Gary

At this time of year boring weather is perfect weather.  I absolutely love it!

------------------

There you go!  I agree!

Gary

When it gets closer to when your segment will air in late September, will you please remind us? I don't want to miss it.
Have a great cool day!

I have a friend in Jamaica right now for a special trip.  They're on the western tip of the island, in the Negril area.  They're there until Saturday - can you comment on what Gustav means for their trip?  I really hope it doesn't negatively impact it.  It looks like it's sunny and wonderful there right now...

Hi Gary,  sorry if this has been asked before.

I know you said you actually made the basketball shot in the commercial, but did you make the baseball one too?  My 10yo daughter keeps asking me to ask you.

Hey Gary,

The GFDL model, which was the most accurate run model for Fay has a CAT 5 on the 31st of August just south of NOLA.

Know alot can change, but would be a very historic and destructive one-two punch within 3 years and a few days of each other.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008082606-gustav07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Gary I'm so totally jealous that you met the Dog Whisperer!  We watch that show faithfully - and have used a few of his techniques when Roger and Dozer fight.  It's totally amazing what that man does with dogs.  Be sure to put on the blog when your segment will be on TV- I don't always get to see the regular weather and might miss an announcement!  Stormy looks totally happy in the picture - great work Pack Leader!  :)  Laura

Chickadee - it is a bit too soon to say, other than they should get wet.

The path and intensity is still a bit tough to tell that far out for sure.  Three day cones have quite a bit of error and beyond that is just ball park.

The longer Gustav remains over water, the worse it will be for all involved.  Even in the time it will hit land near Haiti, while knocking it down some, it has plenty of warm water to rebuild before striking land again.

Best advise would be to watch it carefully, monitor the NHC, and make sure you are communicating with those who may be in the path...

Communication and preparation are the keys to getting through Mother Nature's events...

Gary, it is interesting that the GFS and NAM nearly completely missed initializing Gustav, and stuggle with its development.  Not particularly odd as the framework of the NCEP product is centralized for land initiation to an extent, but would have thought it would have picked it up better.

Have to go back to tropical mode...Gustav could be very dangerous.  I pray the mountains knock it down and some big sheer gets in the way.  Not eager to see a budding Cat 3 enter the Gulf.  

If it hits open water in the Gulf with any type of structure - with the low sheer progs and warm water, I would expect to see it bomb.

Yikes!  Go MOUNTAINS AND SHEER!!!!  I like buying gasoline under $5 a gallon....

;-)

mmancubfan,

I have found the GFDL to be pretty good over time.  I pray it is wrong this time.  Perhaps we will wishcast the NOGAPS?

Based on historical paths...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_climo.html#a_topad

The GFDL is in the ball park.

Gary,

That is so cool that you got to work with the Dog Whisperer!  Was Breezy there, too?  Many of us can't wait to hear and see the information.  Weather related -- when do you think we might get rain?  Things are a bit dry.

WXGuy...

Masters has just an incredible site for the tropics.  I actually tracked Katrina on that site and found it very educational though sad outcome.  I remember he and staff predicted the devastation of a CAT 3-4 hitting NOLA 2 days before it hit due to the LSU? or Tulane? study done on NOLA two years prior on the impact of a hurricane on NOLA.  

It is scary to look at the HIGH SST's S and W of Cuba and the lack of sheer forecasted for the W. Carib and GOM this weekend.

If Gus continues S. of Cuba at all and enters the GOM it should blow up as it crosses the W. tip of Cuba.

Hope either the Upper level High grows over Florida later this week pushing it west into the Yucatan or the upper level ridge some are predicting to grow over Texas gulf grows east and blocks it from pulling north into the GOM.

Gary you can blame me for the lack of rain.  Ever since I installed my giant 11 inch capacity rain guage, it has been like this, or at least near me at 169 & Englewood.  Others during this time period have had some good down pours.

Gustav is looking impressive on all the images, and I must say quite concerning on where it's going to end up.  I'm not going to jinx anyone but I'm willing to bet waking up this morning in TX, LA, MS they are saying "oh xxxxx"

Gary,

That is so awesome that you got  to meet with the Dog Whisperer.  I've never seen his show but did catch a South Park episode with him as a "guest" LOL!

This boring weather just can't be beat!  I'm really loving it.  Love keeping the windows open at night.  I've been getting the best sleep ever.  My only problem...the ragweed count.  Bummer:(

I'm trying to do a little research on the current location of Gustav, and estimating it at 70 / 15 and finding the ones the past few years that went through the same general area and in the same general time period we are in.

One close to it is Ernesto in 2006 http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20065.asp

This thing has went from 35 mph to 90 mph in just 24 hours.  That's insane.

I pray Gustav does not get in the warm Gulf.  At the rate it is strengthening it could get real big real quick

WOW sounds like you had a very informative day yesterday, must have been neat to meet the "Dog Whisperer"!
As for Gustav, well waiting is the name of the game but either way, I believe that the GFDL prog. given to us by mmancubfan  should NOT be shown to anybody in the stock market it does not even have to do what the GFDL says, if the "speculation monster" arises!!

I'll I know is that IF, BIG IF, Gustav maintains its current track, there will be mandatory evacuations somewhere along the gulf coast starting this weekend.  I pray that the GFDL model is way off, because those poor folks in LA and MS can't take another strong hurricane like that.  Please correct me if I'm wrong, but they haven't even completely fixed the NO levees have they?  Anyway, it's still way too earlier to assume things like this a week away.

I have a quick question on Gustav - I have a friend who flies tomorrow to Cancun,and then flies back on Sunday - I looked at NOAA and it looks like Mexico could be in the path, but then I clicked on a different "cone" and it shows that it's headed straight for NOLA -- is that the best site to look at?  She's thinking of canceling her trip.  

Nick - I agree 100%!  When I heard that it was gonna get over water and strengthen - first thing I thought was "here goes the oil!"  Sigh.  Everybody FILL up every day this week!  :)

The dog whisperer rocks!  I hope he can help you out!  And hey... can I expect to see you on his show?



-Nicole

Seeker: We will have to see about Cancun, but only one model out of a dozen or so have the upper level high north of the Florida pushing it straight west over the Yucatan.  Could be bad for Cancun and north in Yuc peninsula but not likely based on the most current model runs.

Think of it as a top spinning counter-clock-wise and wanting to go north but getting pushed sideways (west).  If the high pushes it for the next 3 days as it is predicted, it will hit the tip of mountainous SE Cuba after going over Haiti tonight and enter into the Caribbean south of Cuba as a weak TS.  HOWEVER, it then would move West into VERY warm seas and strengthen IMMEDIATELY back into a hurricane.  The problem is most models see the high then move east on day 4 and allow it to make a rt turn NW and move into the Gulf.  

What is interesting is the July Loop Current Eddy (getting this from wunderground.com) that is straight south of New Orleans......a form of this very warm area of water is what caused Katrina to explode into a Cat 5 in the middle of the GOM 3 years ago.

Gary..... it would be interesting for you and the team to do a tutorial on the blog of: What makes a Hurricane develop,
What influences the weakening or strengthening (shear, SST's, etc)
What are the steering variables of a Hurricane such as troughs(like the one going through here late week that will pull this to a landfall if it makes it into the GOM) ULL's and ULH's.  

Since it looks like we may have 3-4 named storms in the Atlantic next week.  Might be good timing....

Gary- you are so lucky to met Cesar - .. I hope be does come back for an episode with you guys- Does Breezy still have a big ego?

I am glad you are back on at 10- I am sure you are as well.

Gustaf looks to be interesting- I am glad I am retired- seems like he could be a real monster for someone- at least not me.

Take care-

JP

--------

JP,

I just got back. It has been a crazy day.  We will be talking about Gustav tonight at 10 PM.

Gary

Mman - thanks!  The "not likely" part was helpful - that's all I wanted!  I'm actually TRYING to track this thing - just for my own information, and so I will understand what the rest of you are talking about.  It's pretty interesting actually!  I'm absolutely NOT hoping that it hits anyone, anywhere - it's just fascinating to me.  Thanks again.  Laura

Gustav is over land with winds of up to 75 MPH. Looks like he might take a little simalar path that Fay did then go to the Gulf instead. And, whats so special about Hydrox cookies coming back, before they were gone, I never had any.

Nastyweather,
Most of the levees are "supposidly" fixed but wont be able to handle a hurricane like Katrina or higher.  There is still alot that has not been fixed or rebuilt down there.  Before we left a year ago, they still also had staffing issues at ALOT of places because of how many people didnt return.  No they would not be able to handle another one.  I have many friends down there and I am kinda worried but not going to jump the gun yet.  Bob Breck is the BEST weather man down there so if I hear of him saying "Get the hell out of dodge" again, thats when to worry...

Gary that's so neat you got to meat the dog whisperer, I can't can't wait to find out the results with Breezy. As for Gustav. That looks like it could be a very ominous event that I will be holding my attention to non stop. Have a great night everyone.

--------

Breezy and Stormy are already better behaved.  Thanks.

Gary

The 10 p.m. presentation of the potential of Gustav in the Gulf was very well put together, I like the reverse flip looking south from the north at the ominous Gulf clouds!!

The NAM is looking decent for rain on Thursday night, I know it is the NAM, as for our Gustav it is interesting, the GFS has this thing being a "Mexico" storm driving it due west although all of the other models seem to say otherwise, if the GFS is wrong about this then it can't be relied very well for the forecast next week as a major hurricane moving north into the U.S. from the gulf would very likely mess with the weather situation here. For instance the GFS actually has a decent system moving into the plains on Monday next week and would suggest a decent shot at rain, but has no Gustav in the south U.S., if there is Gustav (especially to our south and east) then it could easily kill any good southerly flow into that possible storm in effect absorbing it into its pressure field.   Of course this whole situation is conjecture on one computer model run, but still shows how hurricane season can mess with our weather forecasting here.

If Gustav heads out over the Gulf, than makes a turn for the north, Hello High Gas Prices!

Gary, who can bench more? You or the dog whisperer?

--------------

I am guessing the Dog Whisperer, but can he do 20 sets of squats like I did yesterday?

Gary