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Wow, SPC even has us in a slight risk for severe weather (for tomorrow).  I'd say this is probably pretty minimal, given the set up.  And even if it all does come together, nothing worse than some gusty winds or small hail.

I am more concerned with Gustav...this looks like it could be a monster.  Will have to keep an eye on it.

Pete

------------------

Pete,

There may be a severe thunderstorm or two on Thursday evening.  We will have to see how it sets up. 

Gary

What about the thunderstorms pushing south from Nebraska this morning and those popping up in central Kansas?  The nebraska storms look to be heading in our direction.

-------------

Dwight,

There isn't much flow aloft today, so those thunderstorms won't make it here.  But, it is a good sign for tomorrow's chance of rain.

Gary

I'm not sure those will make it but if my eyes are not deceiving me, there appears to be some slight development just west of Leavenworth county?

----------------

That is real activity, but it is just not moving and should fall apart fast.

Gary

I talked to my mom in South Carolina, they live by Clemson & had 23" of rain from Fay yesterday and tornadoes & severe storms.  She said since the drought was so bad all the rain just ran off the ground & didn't soak in so they aren't much better then they were before.

I sure hope we get rain.  Maybe, I should help things along, pitch my tent, wash my car & hang out laundry to dry...then for sure we'll get it...;)

---------------

I would try everything today, and maybe we can get it to rain on Thursday.

Gary

Despite the severe weather, I am glad they are getting rain down there from Fay as I know how badly they needed it down there.  I hope it does help somewhat, despite the fact it all fell in one day.

I've been thinking of washing my car too so maybe that will also help, hehe.

Pete

My brother lives in Evans GA - as of yesterday, he said they were getting a ton of rain - and were under a tornado watch, but I haven't heard from him today!  Don't know how close he is to Clemson - but they really got hammered.

Gary, i cant follow the blog as much as i want to since i am at college. but did want to stop in with a quick comment on gustav...gustav will be a monster. looking at 5 day forecast models it looks like it will go west of new orleans which could be a disaster. but a lot can change in 5 days.

--------------------

The 5 day forecasts, this season, have just been horrible.  So, don't worry about New Orleans yet.  Let's just see what he does today.

Gary

good morning gary well you have talked about the lrc down the road the farmers almanac and what they think even thought it put out a year later.i will throw you one as old wise tales go what does it mean when we have notice squirrels in our backyard the last two weeks gathering nuts and hiding them as fast as they can.

-----------------------

The squirrels may know something.

Gary

Hey Gary Will That Big Blob Up North Make It Here Today Need Rain Real Bad Yard Is Very Dry.

-----------------

Not today, but maybe tomorrow.  It may get to near St. Joseph, but then fall apart.

Gary

Any signs of Autumn coming in at all ??
It is a season I truly love the most !!!

-------------------

Yes, there are signs of fall.  The flow aloft has started a slow strengthening and this will mean our first fall cold front should not bet too far off, perhaps within a couple of weeks.

Gary

Spotter and Gary - I hate to tell you this about squirrels but they're DUMB!  Didn't you ever hear that for all the nuts and stuff they bury, they can only find about 1% when they need it?  We only have those huge red squirrels by us - don't really notice that they're any more active but I'll watch!  Last weekend, there was one on our porch railing, stretched out snoozing - I ran for the camera and of course scared him off.  Betterme than the dogs!  Laura

I did notice the goldfinches are already starting to turn - seems really early - so maybe that means winter's coming earlier than usual ???

Those that have been following the contest on NotesintheMargin's site for Labor Day would have realized tomorrow's front has been forecasted for quite awhile.

While the LRC is currently in a bit of transition, this is a front from the past cycle.

I am looking forward to the rain.

Regarding Gustav...Masters has the best blog going for tropics.  His last post is very informative.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

I cannot still stop laughing from the link at the bottom of his blog entry.

Oh...and Gary, the squirrels always know.  ;-)

Hey Spotter,
Have you also noticed that the geese arrived early for their annual trip South for the Winter? Yesterday I had to stop the car in the middle of the road as there was a line of geese meandering across the road. We have had geese here for a few weeks now. I don't know if this means anything weather wise but I thought I would throw it out there.
Audra in Lee's Summit

Yeah Audra!  The geese really are moving these days - I like to listen to them in the big flocks (or whatever you call it - gaggle?)

The new 5 day track is out on Gustav now. It sure looks like it will be headed toward New Orleans, but the last comment on the discussion says that the 5 day track has an error margin of 300 miles... Equal chances that it will end up being a Category I, II, or III.  
Maybe in the long run, we can hope to get some rain from Gustav next week?

Gary,

It will be interesting to see how this Aug rates with other KC August's temp wise. Now if only we could get some rain...I'm noticing the yards are begining to go dormant...strange as usually this is the time of year that the exact opposite starts happening. I see many places in SE Neb and SW Iowa have gotten over an inch of rain this morning...man...we just can't catch a break...so close yet so far. I'm trying to be postive about our rain chances tomorrow but I'm preparing for the worst.

Jeff  

KCWX - that's a great summary of the storms - a tad bit over my head, but I did get the gist of it!  It will be interesting - and scary no doubt for a lot of people.  Yeah - funny Onion Cast!  Ha ha!

Gary - when will you have a better picture of storms tomorrow night?  I must hvae my head in a hole or something.  My boss is going on vacation, and I'm getting ready for an extra long weekend - must be working too hard! ANyway - last I heard, there was just a 20% chance of rain - then earlier, I read in the blog there might be severe storms and hail!  Just wondered when you might have a better handle on that?  I don't guess it matters as long as it isn't tornados. Thanks.  No rush!  Laura.

Hello, what are the chances for severe weather late tonight into tomorrow morning?

Thanks

Chieffan07 -- Gary said early nothing today, but late tomorrow.  So I'd think there wouldn't be ANY weather tonight or tomorrow morning.

Thanks HummerSeeker. I hadn't really paid attention to the weather the last couple of day so I was just wondering.

Thanks again.

CMC - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008082712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

GFDL - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008082712-gustav07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

NOGAP - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2008082712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

UKMET - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008082712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

FSU's model concensus for grins - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu-mergetc2.cgi?time=2008082700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Two things I observed.  One, it is gonna suck for the Gulf states.  Still to far out to know where Gus will go, but more and more models are coming to a closer concensus.

Two, there seems to be quite a few storms lining up behind Gustov including a Cape storm.    Also, 95L is crazy.  There is not telling where that thing is going...

Its gonna get crazy...

KCWX - in those animation maps, when something starts as just a little blob and then gets tighterand tighter with lines, and looks darker in the middle - there were two or three to the east and then SE of the US, is that what the tropical depressions/storms are when they are forming?  Also, the UKMET map (whatever THAT means) Has Gustav hitting just alittle west of where one of the other maps do -- then when it hits land it sort of comes up and veers a little east -- sort of looks like if it kept going, it would come through Missouri. But we're way too far inland to have a hurricane or tropical storm, right?

I know like next to nothing (okay nothing) about maps and such - but those maps were pretty easy to read (if I'm doing it right) - mostly because they're animated.  But I do see what you mean about the Gulf states.  It's probably 100% someone along there will get hit.  

On Jeff Masters site that you gave earlier, it talked about the little ring that broke off - from what I understood, if Gustav doesn't pass directly over that, then it won't gain any more strength, even though it's over water - because that little ring is where the extra strength comes from.  Am I understanding that right?  Reading his report, it sure does sound like everything is setting up as it did for Katrina.  

here's more of my uninformedness (or stupidity, however you want to call it) -- if a strong wind would rise up and come and blow against Gustav, can hurricanes change direction just because of that?  I know in times past, they've predicted hurricanes to hit somewhere (usually along the east coast is where they miss it the most) and then it just totally turns and goes back out to sea. But I guess towards the east coast, it could get wind from three directions - once it starts coming up into the gulf, there's basically land in three directions.  But what's the likelihood of Gustav turning back out to sea?

Sorry!  I'm feeling curious today!

Thanks for any help -- Laura

UKMET

'Stewardesses'

is the longest word typed with only the left hand


And 'lollipop'  
is the longest word typed with your right hand.
(Bet you tried this out mentally, didn't you?)


No word in the English language rhymes with
month, orange, silver, or purple.




'Dreamt' is the only English word that ends in the letters 'mt'.
(Are you doubting this?)
 


Our eyes   are always the same size from birth,

but our nose and ears


never stop growing.  

 
 
The sentence:
'The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog'
uses every letter of the alphabet.
(Now, you KNOW you're going to try this out for accuracy, right?




The words 'racecar,'  
'kayak'
and 'level'  
are the same whether they are read
left to right or right to left (palindromes).
(Yep, I knew you were going to 'do' this one.)
 
 
 
There are only four words in the English language which end in 'dous':
tremendous, horrendous, stupendous, and hazardous.
(You're not doubting this, are you?)  
 
 
 
There are two words in the English language that have all five vowels in order: 'abstemious' and 'facetious.' (Yes, admit it, you are going to say, a e i o u)

TYPEWRITER     is the longest word
that can be made using the letters only on one row of the keyboard.
(All you typists are going to test this out)
 


A cat has 32 muscles in each ear.



A goldfish    has a memory span of three seconds.

(Some days that's about what my memory span is. And this myth is actually wrong!)

I really do not care if we get balsted by severe weather; One or two storms; or no severe weather at all. I hope the set up will allow for heavy rainfall, I really want KCI to end above average. I also want it to be above average in Marceline too.

I think Gustav is going to become a monster in the Gulf, and I think he will reach major status in the Carribbean if he has minimal impact with land. Here is the computer models forecast for Gustav:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html#a_topad

I think it will stay over open water, and enter the Gulf between the Yucatan and Western Cuba. I am going to say it will not make landfall in Cuba, but I really dont know.

My school here in Marceline was fortunate to recieve the Agricultural Program last year when I was in landscaping. This year I am in Greenhouse, and they are putting up the fairly large greenhouse now. I think it will be pretty cool as it will feel fun playing god with this little microclimate. I can make it rain, change the humidity, keep it warm in winter...ect.

Gustav is 50 mph now** 5 pm advisory**

Alex

Laura,

Pack a lunch..here goes...

Here is my take on your questions [and more since it is a bit slow today].  

The maps posted were surface pressure maps.  The tighter the gradient [the more and closer circles], the stronger the surface low, thus the stronger the storm.  Also, these maps tend to color code to make it easier to understand…
         
The genesis of tropical storm starts in a few different ways, but generally there is a wave or windshift line.  This line serves as a point of convergence, and allows thunderstorms to form.  When these thunderstorms form, it begins working to get organized into a centralize point of a closed circulation surface low.  This stage takes the open circulation to a closed circulation.  When this happens, it is the beginning of the tropical storm.

The first step upon closed circulation is a tropical depression.  This happens with clusters of thunderstorms and a closed circulation [generally].  The next steps are well defined elsewhere, [no need to rewrite the book here], but goes from a depression to storm to hurricane based on wind speed.

UKMET is one model used for forecasting.  It is the United Kingdom model.  

As far as storms coming into Missouri?   That is a trick question sorta.  The remnants of the storm can make it into KS and MO.  At worst, maybe as a depression.  Remember how we saw parts of Dolly this year in our area and perhaps a very small part of Ed [questionable].

I would not be surprised to see Gus come right up the gut of the Gulf States and head toward MO.  I have a sense of where I THINK the new longwaves are setting up, and this would be consistent.  We will have to see.  Maybe I will be right, maybe I will be wrong.

As far as your question about the loop current.  If it gets into it, the storm easily can intensify quickly or “bomb”.  Many hurricanes have hit the loop and bombed…Katrina and Rita are recent canes that did that.  

However, it is not necessary to have a loop current to intensify.  Low sheer, great outflow, and warm sea surface temps [SST] is all that is required.  As hurricanes grow significant, you will watch ERCs occur.  ERC are Eyewall Replacement Cycles.  During these periods, the eyewall expands to a point where a smaller and tighter eyewall will form inside it and replace it.  During these periods, canes will typically weaken slightly.  This can happen several times.  

If I remember right [would have to look it up again], it seems Katrina was in the middle of an ERC or just had completed prior to land fall.

One other thought to consider…while beautiful [from a science perspective] to see a huge eye in a storm, the stronger – more intense – canes have smaller eyes.  Some less than 10 nms in diameter.  Reference Wilma.

Words like bigger, stronger and more dangerous are very subjective words in describing hurricanes.  Since tropical cyclones can have quite different sizes and impacts, it is hard to always compare apples to apples.  

For example, we just saw Fay.  Fay was not much from a wind perspective, but a HUGE rain maker.  It was a dangerous storm, while not terribly worrisome from a wind perspective.  Large sized hurricanes may be decent rain makers, and decent wind makers, but may be HUGE wave makers.  Katrina was like this.

Every storm is different.

You ask about strong winds against a hurricane.  This is a two part answer.  The first, is if it is too strong, and is beyond the speed or direction of the storm, it is called sheer.  Sheer can destroy tropical storms.  It rips them apart.  Sheer from 0-10 is generally favorable for growth.  Sheer 10-20 is moderate and storms will have a hard time growing in that environment and may even weaken.  Sheer over 20kts will generally rip a tropical cyclone apart.

But, back to the other part.  Large synoptic elements such as ULLs or ULHs serve as agents to steer the storm.  This is a bit more complex to get into the details here, but kinda think of it as spinning bumpers in a pinball game.   And the pinball is the storm.

There isn’t really any mechanics right now that exist or that are modeled in the near future that would turn Gustav around and head the other way.  In fact, it is quite difficult for storms heading from a general S to N type of heading to reverse path.  The coriolis effect generally keeps storms heading poleward.  

However, a strong ULL or ULH can reek havoc on steering currents and can make storms do some crazy things.

There is a huge amount of data available on tropical creations…etc.  the dynamics are quite interesting, but in many ways different than land based storms.  

I won’t even talk about how a ULH forms on top of a strong tropical cyclone.  A ULH on top of a ULL.  

I would be here all day..and no one wants that.  LOL

My sprinkler system is being installed at my house tomorrow... take that mother nature and your lack of rain!!    That will for sure make it rain tomorrow... and inevitably delay the install of my sprinklers.  :)

Geez KCWX!  Just a LUNCH?  I need a month's worth of M&Ms to get through that! I read it and it does make sense - but...I'm printing it out and I'm going to look at it better tonight and tomorrow.  Seems like there's a lot of stuff that goes into these storms other than "it's depression, now a storm, now over water, and now a hurricane and here it comes" - guess I never thought of it.  But THANK YOU for taking the time - and I'm gonna understand it, and watch the maps and models!

I do want to say something though.  Back in the 80s - it had to be between June 84 and November 86 (because I was with my ex back then) -- there was Hurricane Elena. We lived in Sarasota, right on the bay (gulf side).  They were doing the whole hurricane prediction deal - all of Sarasota (and other counties too) along there were evacuated.  We lived next to an evacuation center and watched all the coming and going.  We actually were dumb enough to drive to the marina -- there were three people, two guys and one girl, in the back seat of a small car - the wind wasSO bad that they couldn't open the door, with all threeof them.  Finally got it open - the waves were just HUGE, slow and rolling.  We did get run out of there by beach patrol.  Duh.

Anyway -- the next day, they said Elena was moving up (N) the coast towards Tampa, so sent evacuees home.  Next day (or maybe the day after that), she had turned south again, and they evacuated Sarasota for the second time.  It started going back north again and then just stalled out there in the gulf.  Didn't go anywhere.  If I remember correctly, it never did actually come all the way into land.  But we did go to the beach later - justmounds of sand adn shells as big as trees.  I have pictures of the marina - boats were up on the highway smashed to pieces, hugetrees uprooted and gone, sidewalks cracked all the way into high Ts - at one point, Tamiami Trail (41) was under water, close up to where I worked, which is a long distance.

Anyway -- I really did experience that hurricane going north, then south, then north, then stall - it was the strangest thing.  So whatever caused that I don't know -- google Hurricane Elena and it might be interesting for you!

Thanks again - and I'll be writing back (probably not until later this weekend) with ALL my questions in response to your nice informative blog!  :)  Laura

Here KCWX - here's a really good summary of Elena.  I didn't realize it was that costly or that deadly!  When I tell people how I experienced a hurricane - they've never heardof it!  Anyway -

http://www.tropmet.com/gallery/hurricane/gal_1985_elena.htm  

hmm.  Don't know why that didn't "blue up" but you can copy it into your browser.  It was an "eractic" hurricane for sure!

Just my opinion for all, but I would highly recommend filling up your gas in your cars, trucks, lawnmowers etc. in the next day or two.  Oil went up 5 dollars a barrel yesterday alone and Gustav is still a week away.  

Yea Doug - I've been telling everyone to FILL 'ER UP too!  It's gonna skyrocket - it went WAY up with Katrina.  But, it also came back down relatively quickly -so hopefully it will do that again too.

I am beginning to track 95L now.  I might as well call her Hanna now as I think the next update may name it.

She looks very nice on the sats.  She has potential to be very angry as well.  She may be more Florida bound.

That www.tropmet.com is a good site to track Gustav - they're tracking it as a Cat 3 and making landfall around 2 on Monday -- pretty much dead on LA.  I just heard on NPR today that they don't have the gates on the levies yet - I hope that doesn't mean that the same thing will happen.  Hopefully, they will evacuate sooner than they did the last time.

Elena sounds interesting..there are many canes that have done some very odd things.

To date, Ivan is still my favorite.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ivan_2004_track.png

Ophelia is my second..

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/Ophelia_2005_track.png

I guess I shouldn't think it so unusual that people never heard of Elena - I never heard of Ophelia!  Ivan I've heard of, but not from knowing when it happened - just in retrospect.  That was bizarre!  So it was a hurricane, hit land (and then wasn't one) and then went out over water again and became a hurricane again?  

Storms are just too awesome.  I like the sky shots where they show the size, with the eye in the middle. I don't guess I knew that the smaller the eye, the stronger the storm - but that makes sense.  Interesting.

Is 95L just a storm starting up? How come you already know the name for it?  I know it has to be an "H" but didn't think they named it until it happened!

Stormdog - That would be all we need - Gustav to give the predatory oil companies and their conspiratorial traders an excuse to bump up the price of oil per barrel and hence our prices - fill up soon, or the price will increase, markedly.

Weatherwise, August has been a non-starter, a bore, and by the big cracks in my yard, I feel confident in stating that.  Also the fact that barely .50" or a little more has fallen at my house.   Of course, it IS Blue Springs, which seems to be in some sort of rain-shadow from my historical records since I moved here, so I should not expect much.  Ah well....

YAWN,Dog

Its not formally known as Hanna yet.  I just feel at the next advisory or very shortly based on its structure and model progs it will be named very shortly.

95L has been out there for awhile.

Storms with a number are called Invest storms.  I think the Navy names the Invests to give them an identity for reference until they are formally named.

Here is their site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

The NOGAPS is the Navy modeling.  Here is where they think Gustav is going...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/07L.GUSTAV/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

C'mon Dog, per the forecast validation, it has been a wet summer, right?

LOL..

As far as the oil, don't they wait for EVERY summer to rake over the consumers?  Seems like that is about as consistent as the seasons themselves.

;-)

Hummerseeker,

The reason kcwxguy knows the name "hanna" is because they release a list of names before the season starts, and if this forms next it will be Hanna.

Alex

how many 90 degree days at IXD, OJC, MKC, LWC .... ???????

these numbers are closer to what many of us experienced this summer.  Micro-climate effects (soil moisture gradients), and/or instrument error at the MCI ASOS made for different outcomes in the Northland.

--------------------

Actually, only 1 more at Johnson County Executive, and only 3 more downtown.  So, it is 10 at KCI since July 16th, 11 at OJC, and 13 at the downtown airport. 

Gary

9/1/08. Judgement Day for those in New Orleanes.

what about IXD, LWC ?  when all said and done, I'll bet they (MKC, too) had at least twice as many as MCI for the *season*.   Climate at MCI (whether real or not) was quite cooler than what many of us experienced elsewhere.  

How many at your TV station ?

25 at my station at home for the season in OP (at 2.5m elevation)

----------

It is always tough to say what the real temperature is outside.  It can be an 82 degree day, which is measured about 5 feet above the ground in the shade of an instrument shelter. But, it may actually be 94 degrees in the direct sun at that same location. 

You may very well have had 25 90 degree days, but officially it isn't even close.  IXD  (New Century Airport in Gardner) is the hot spot of the summer.  They hit 100 degrees twice, and had 16 90 degree days after July 15th.  St. Joseph and Sedalia only had 9, however.  So, KCI is really not that far out of line.

Gary

Gary

Gustav looks pretty ragged now and there is discussion on Weather Underground (comments in Dr. Master's blog) that the low level circulation has decoupled from the mid level circulation.  Gustav may be barely hanging on to life right now after its encounter with Haiti.  Will it recover?

But it does look like Hannah is beginning to form.

23 90 degree days at IXD (indcluding today)
19 at MKC  

to say (not that you are) MCI is "our" temperature is misleading, especially given the unusual readings the MCI ASOS has reported this JJA relative to surrounding sites.  Many of your viewers were considerably warmer than MCI in the seasonal mean (by a degree or so ... which equates to quite a few more extra CDDs over the summer).

----------

My number of days is since July 16th.  And, I am just saying that KCI is right in line with downtown, Sedalia, St. Joseph, Johnson County Executive.  Everyone is close to the same number of ninety degree days.

Gary

I want Gustav to do something. I'm tired of it sitting next to Haiti. It's funny that I've been yelled at for so much meager stuff in the past yet Juba gets away with whatever he just wrote. amazing.

Hail. I havent yelled at you. Again there are ppl that will get onto pp. I have gotten onto Juba many times telling him to Post something Weather Situated in the Weather Blog. My Last post was a Weather Statement. The Judgement day is coming.

Interesting discussion on readings for summer.  While I am not a complete fan of the KMCI location for official readings, in the greater scheme of things, and averaged over time, it is probably as good as any.

This region does have specific microclimates.  Not just KMCI, but other areas as well.  There are also specific biases with each of these locations.  MKC typically benefits in the summer from a heat island affect, Stormdog will attest that Blue Springs suffers from a rain shadow related to the heat island effect, areas to the SW typically will always have warmer temps, and areas to the NE typically do have cooler temps.

This region is pretty diverse, and to single one point out as an anomaly likely isn’t valid over time.  This year, it does seem MCI is a bit different, but no different than other surrounding areas to some of the other recording points.

It is an interesting paradigm.  One that is riddled with both subjectivity and objectivity.  

One would want a single point of reference for validation, but just as easily can be argued that one point was not a representation of the region.  

In other thoughts…don’t count Gus out yet…here is a blurb from the NHC in its most recent discussion…

“GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE
TERRAIN OF HAITI.  IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST.   IN ANOTHER 24-36
HOURS...HOWEVER...GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RESTRENGTHEN.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER
THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. “

Keep an eye on him…[pardon the pun]

Scott, you usually have some pretty good posts, but the sarcasm gets tiring in a hurry.  Also, watch the language.  The term "sucks" really means something pretty vulgar, definitely not family material.

Hail, I know you love the storms, and I appreciate your zeal for the weather.  But I think you need to look at these things with a more serious eye.  Here's a link to the storm that hit my hometown when my parents were kids.  The "official" death toll for our town was 136, but locals believe it was many, many more, even over 300.  Many families were swept out to sea and never heard from again.  There's a headline in the New York Times at that time that said 200 people were swept to sea from a sand dune in our town.
  The beach where I grew up had two miles of homes on one stretch before the storm.  Other than a handful of bricks and some pylons, there's nothing left of those homes.  I used to play basketball with a guy who lost one of his grandparents in the storm.  His father was able to hang on to a floating piece wood along with one of the parents during the storm.  That's the only way they survived.  My own father heard a crash and ran into the kitchen to see what it was.  When he went back into the living room, the chimney was in the chair he had just vacated.
  Just think when you write those comments.  There are many out here who have lost loved ones or know others who did during these storms.

http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/1938HURRICANE.html

Gary, tomorrow's forecast has as a 70-percent chance of thunderstorms but the seven-day has 50 percent.  Which one is correct?  Thanks!

-------------------

I just think you needed to reload it.  It is 70% on the seven-day as well.  But, I still think the best chance is between 5 and 9 PM when the front moves through.  We need the rain.

Gary

WXGuy:

Gus starting to expand now, looks like 3/4 eyewall being created over last 2 hours.  Will wait and see if it goes over Jamaica to see how strong it gets in next 24/36.

95L Invest blowing up.

Miami and NOLA getting hit at approx same time?????.not likely but geez they are really starting to line up there with 95L having favorable conditions now to really grow over next couple of days.

GFDL still has Gus coming into NOLA on East side as Cat 3 with a tight Cat 4 line on LA/MS border.  Most models have now moved east from west of yesterday.

Great info.  Yes, you could write a book on the ULH over the ULL and how it effects the steering of a TS that was an Invest that now is a Hurricane...LOL.  Masters has such a good site.....

Matt P:

Yes the 38' storm is the one that puts fear in the hearts of all East Coasters who live in the DelMarVA and NJ coasts along with Long Island and NY proper along with S. Connecticut and MA coasts.

A CAT 5 hurricane which is what the 38' cane was, hitting the East coast in present times would flood NYC in the storm surge and cause the most devastating damage in terms of $$$ than has ever been seen.

Very scary scenario!!!

Interesting wording by the NHC on the latest Gustav advisory...  I haven't seen them use the word 'surprise' very often.  I wonder what Gustav will do next?  It still appears the end result of what has been forecast regarding Gustav is somewhat unchanged.

I haven't blogged in a few days, but I just had to kick in  my" thoughts" this morning. While I enjoy the blog and the weather as much as anyone, I am distress by this post " want Gustav to do something. I'm tired of it sitting next to Haiti".

You do realize of course, with this storm in the gulf, crude prices have risen $5.00 a barrel and expect to go higher, as the gulf coast evacuates 95 % of  the rigs that produce over a quarter of America's US Oil. As a side note, this spike is just because of those evacuations, imagine the spike if the infer-structure is damaged, this going into the winter months, with half the population struggling to pay their heating bills now.

That New Orleans is just get back to some sort of normal, and for 100's of 1000's of people, just the possibility this could hit them is causing panic. An order of emergency has been issued in NO, and Mayor Nagin left the Democratic Convention to fly back to New Orleans fearing the new levee will NOT hold and he will need to coordinate another mass evacuation.

I can go on and mention what this will do to the shimpers and fisherman that supply us, with wonderful delicacies from the depths of our oceans, the people who rebuilt and couldn't get insurance against another Hurricane and the statement a storm of this catagory makes about Global conditions based on the fact that before Katrina NO hadn't been hit with a storm of this magnitude in 396 years.

Having said all this about what NO could suffer, let's not forget how many people up and down the gulf coast could be effected by this storm, how thinly our National Guard Troops are stretched trying to defend us overseas and now to rescue us from the sea.

I realize our weather is a tad bit boring right now, so we tend to focus on anything to stir a little excitement, I just think we need to really watch HOW we state our interests in this storm and send prayers up for all the people that have been or will be effected by this storm.

God's Speed Gulf Coast!!

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I agree with what you are saying.  Some of the bloggers are just expressing their excitement for the weather in this way.  I know that we can say unanimously that none of us want anyone to be devestated by a hurricane.  So, in the blog if you are frustrated by something bad not happening, then try to keep it to yourself.  Gustav is likely going to be a powerful hurricane.  Conditions are very favorable for a major hurricane to form in the next two days.

Gary