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If storms do develop today, will they be severe and/or produce torrential rain?

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Yes.  We do have a slight risk of severe weather today.  The main threat will be large hail and microburst winds. 

Gary

yes

So what can you tell me for those of us heading out to the Chiefs practice game tonight?  What's the timing of these storms this afternoon?

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There is a cap, so there is still a chance the thunderstorms don't form until after the front moves past our location.  Right now we are expecting development between 3 and 7 PM.

Gary

Hi Gary/Team,
With this afternoon's storms is there tornado potential? If so, is it a minimial potential or higher? I am down by Whiteman AFB.

I am saying my prayers that Gustav looks big and mean now but by the time it gets to the US it dies out significantly and doesnt cause too much harm. I heard yesterday from a co-worker that has friend in NEw Orleans that the mayor is evacuating the city as early as Saturday. Hopefully this is true and people take precautions early!!

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New Orleans may not be Gustav's target. So, they should wait until Saturday and see where he is heading.

The tornado threat is extremely small today. There isn't much support for supercell development today.

Gary

Tornado threat is minimal at best.  While some of the storms may have supercellular characteristics, this will mostly be a hail/wind event IF it does in fact come together here.

There could be some rain during the Chiefs game tonight, again, depending on the timing of the storms and if they form here.

Pete

Hey Gary,
It looks like you were right as usual, Saturday does look like it will be a beautiful day for our pool party. Thanks for putting in the request for a really nice Saturday for us!
Audra

I hope something happens today, and it ends of being cooler than 90 for at least KCI!! :)

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Andrew,

Maybe thunderstorms will form early along the front, otherwise you may lose by one.  We are rooting for you!

Gary

I heard this morning Red Cross is on the way to LA and AL and that they are already setting up the emergency supplies, and National Guard is standing ready.  One thing I learned yesterday from KCWX is that a wind sheer will turn Gustav.  I'm praying tha thappens.  The last thing that NOLA OR AL needs is for another huge hurricane to hit.  Bad enough oil is going up, when people can least afford it, on an already failing economy, but even the threat of a storm like that and the possibility of property damage and lives lost, is horrible.  Iknow hurricanes CAN change direction and I'm praying Gustav just turns around, blowson out to sea and dissipates.  Not a good scenario.

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We will know a lot more about the track of Gustav by tomorrow. 

Gary

T-Storms are trying to form NW MO, maybe they send a nice outflow boundary that makes into at least KCI, or maybe a Isolated  shower will pop up right on KCI!

Okay, I've gotta post this question again since things have changed.  We have good friends who are currently on the western tip of Jamaica on the coast - are they in serious trouble?  I know Gustav is still a tropical storm, but hurricane warnings are posted for the entire island.

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Gustav is just becoming a hurricane right now, so it will be past Jamaica by the time he becomes super dangerous.  It will still be a problem today though.

Gary

Thanks Gary and Pete - a little reassurance, especially about tornadoes, goes a LONG WAY - especially for me!
Glad to see a glimmer of hope that Gustav maybe not be directly heading towards LA and may be turning course with wind shear. Lets keep hoping that it turns out that way!

Gary,

I am predicting a high of 95 today for my location in southern Overland Park. To date, I have logged (16) days above 90 degrees with (3) of those days right at 100 degrees.

Gustav: Your right, the development this morning has been explosive:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/float1_wv.php

Bob

I know that temperatures can vary within just a couple miles.  I was wondering what you might project as the high temperature in St. Joe today?  News stations up here are saying 88, but it is already to thick and muggy that I personally think it will be closer to your 94.  Just wondering...Thanks Gary and team!

Small change of semantics.  The winds that guide tropical cyclones would be said more of "steering currents".  "Sheer" is thought of more as unidirectional or bidirectional wind that would be potentially disruptive to the storm dynamics.

When we hope for movement of the storm, we are thinking of steering currents.

Gary - I think you are a bit too far west.  Late in the guidance, I am thinking the trough dropping through the western CONUS will push Gus a hair to the east as the ridge moves east.

Unless I see signficant changes, I am still thinking NOLA +/- 100 miles at this time.

As far as weather here, is/was it too much to ask for a remnant outflow boundary?  Sheesh..they have been plentiful this year.  Not looking forward to temps in the 90s with this moist airmass in place.

Gary,

Do you see Gusav impacting our weather within the next week to ten days?  Didn't the hurricane that hit TX this season dump some heavy rains in our area?  Maybe that will be what finally gets some rain here.

Luke

One last quick thought...Gary, you said

"New Orleans may not be Gustav's target. So, they should wait until Saturday and see where he is heading."

Doesn't leave much time for evacuations should they be in the target.  Kinda like waiting to see the tornado coming to your house before taking shelter.

I know it is very stressful, worrisome, and costly to evacuate...but considering the alternative of not providing enough time to do so if needed?

Tough situation.  I don't envy any needing to deal with this on the Gulf Coast.

I will really be watching to see what happens to Gus as it dies inland and where it goes..I think he will offer some great insight for the upcoming LRC and its new longwaves.

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Scott,

I am not saying they should ignore Gustav in New Orleans not even think about it until Saturday.  I said they should wait until Saturday to decide on evacuation, but they should prepare for evacuations just in case.  It certainly could turn towards New Orleans, but I still think the impact will be west of there.  If I were on the air there I would be very concerned, but at the same time point out that the track is very uncertain at this time.

Gary

Thank you, Gary.  By "a problem" do you mean just really rainy and windy?  I think they can deal with that.

Looks like something might be trying to develop by St. Joe, I noticed that on the radar the greens up there are starting to pop up. It might just be ground clutter.

Gary,

What was the original forcast for tropical storms this year?  It seems that so far it has been pretty quiet for a second year in a row.  Just wondering.

Gary, I remember earlier in the summer you said something to the effect of, "Anytime the dew point is above 70 you can just about count on thunderstorms." That has really played out this year, hasn't it? We could sure use some rain, but it would be nice if I didn't get wet at Arrowhead tonight. Oh well, I guess that's what ponchos are for.

Hello Hanna, we have been expecting you.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/281442.shtml

See Mr. KCWX why I said I wanted to print your email yesterday and take the time to REALLY study it?  I knew "sheer" did something bad - now that you mentioned it, I do recall that it just blows up the hurricanes!  Okay - I'm not praying for a wind shift (which would still make it dangerous to someone somewhere) - bring on the sheer!  :)

Well I don't like all those words -- I want a picture of Miss Hanna!  Guess I'll wait.

KCWX -- just a small question (hopefully you'll give a small answer!  Ha ha) -- do hurricanes/tropical storms/depressions, whatever, ever develop in the waters by the US, or do they always develop in the "tropics" (which I guess would be why they call them tropical storms.  Duh.  Seems like they always start somewhere else and strengthen on the way here.

I'm more worried now that the track of Gustav has it passing over open water, all the way into the Gulf.  At least a mild hit of Cuba could weaken it somewhat.  This thing is going to be a monster for a large area of the Gulf.

One other thing to keep in mind is that if this thing explodes as large as some forecasters fear it will, it could cause a 200+ mile wide swath of damage along the coast.  This is a horrible situation.

I also think the below will have Gustav "feel" his way a bit to the east...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

Here is a link for current sheer profiles.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

So how many miles wide IS it from the FL panhandle to  Texas before it dips down? I guess like Gary said earlier, all we can do know is just track it -- but they haven't much changed where it's going to hit.  Pretty much a sure thing for somewhere on the gulf coast.  I don't like weather any more.  Seems like the stuff that's always the most interseting, is the stuff that causes the most damage, and that's the part I hate about it all. It'd be more fun if we could watch stuff grow and get big and dangerous -- out over the water where there isn't any land.

Good Lord now there is Hanna to worry about, plus two more systems in the pipeline.  Wow!

Hummer, they can..but prefer the deeper warmer water of the tropics.

12 words.  Whew!

Those sheers aren't enough to blow Gustav apart are they?  Although, I guess at this point, as it develops, every little blast away at it will help.

Check out the three storms at the bottom of this page in the radar!  http://www.tropmet.com/tropics_atlantic.htm - are those truly big storms, or just something else?  They look like they're all headed one right after the other (to my very untrained eye!) I was trying to find a track or radar of Hanna - but it may be too early for that.  Laura

Laura,

The NWS Hurricane Center has info on those "potentials" for tropical cyclone formation.  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Just mouse-hover over the yellow and orange areas for information.  Hanna was one of those "potential" areas a couple of days ago.  

Laura, you have quite the interest.  LOL

The first one on the far left is a tropical wave with little hope of further deveopment.  The second one is Gustav and the third is Hannah.

In looking at the surface output of the GFDL model, it seems in 120 hrs, we MAY, I stress MAY have 5 storms lined up back to the Verdes.

It is nearing peak season, so this isn't really that abnormal.  

Regarding sheer, what I posted is current view..not forecasted.  Things change often in sheer profiles.

Thanks Melissa and KCWX - yea, maybe hurricanes are gonna be my area of expertise!  :)  Coming up on the Ls - wonder if they'll name one for ME!  LOL

Yes, well I'm pretty sure you lost me with that picture of the shears!  I'll have to stare at it for awhile and see if I can "get" it by osmosis or something!  

Are the yellow numbers mph winds?  (This may just be too complicated for me - you can say so if I'm being too stupid!) I compared that to the picture of the three storms across the bottom - and I see what the "shears" are right where Gustav is.  But I'm not seeing what is going to make him turn so sharply to the US - at this point, it would have to be a sharp turn to hit where they say.  So, maybe what I want to see is not the shear chart but wind currents or something?  What are the pink longer swirly lines?

And how the heck many years did you have to go to college to understand all this?

As of a few hours ago Hannah was expected to turn north into the Atlantic but it's too early to say if it will impact the Carolinas or points north.  But tropical storms can change their minds so stay tuned.  Remember a year or two ago there were five named storms in the Atlantic at the same time, so things can get real busy in a hurry.

7+ years of intense independent study.  Constant research and learning.  

Weather is a bit of a hobby for me.

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Did you say hobby or obsession;)

Jeremy

It makes me sad but I'm gonna have to close my browser so I can get some work done!  I'm being too distracted - but I'll check back later!  Thanks for all your help. Laura

Hmm. Well I guess I'll be a littlemore patient with myself - and study up some more.  And leave you alone!  I'm sorry to always ask YOU but you seem to always have the answers!  

anyway this was some of the point of my last blog that I get yelled at for stuff when other bloggers post those weird statistic things, anywho, to clear things up. I just want to see a Category 5 Hurricane. I don't want to see a Category 5 Hurricane hit anybody. Its like Gary responded to somebody's post. it's our excitement and love for the weather, we don't like that it kills people but sometimes you have to take the good with the bad. I would prefer Gustav, explode in the gulf and become a beatiful to look at major cat 5 hurricane and then weaken to a cat 2 before he comes in that would be nice don't you think? It's definitely possible. I'm just saying since our weather is quasi boring around here all we have is the tropics right now I meant not to offend anyone. thank you for your time. Peace Love and Weather.

Jonathan

Thanks Jeremy!  :)

By the way I did notice the chance of Storms today unfortunately I'm back at work now so I hope I dont miss anything. Please read what I said above for those who were offended about what I said yesterday, thanks

Jonathan

I understand what you meant.  It was a beautiful site to look at (Katrina) before she hit land and then seeing the devistation(sp?) was just horrible.  But anyway, I know what you mean Jonathan!
Becky

SPC appears to have increased our chances of wind damage and hail (tornado threat still minimal to nil).  Its been sunny all morning long and we'll have to watch any outflow boundaries.  Still don't think anything will really show up until about 3 or 4.

Pete

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That is probably a good time estimate to see some storms fire.  They may not reach the metro until late afternoon.

Jeremy

Jeremy..Jeremy...Jeremy...

Jonathan, I understand what you mean. Just like when the tornados were shown live on t.v. It was exciting and you could tell the weatherstaff was very excited, too. Just to see one form and watch it....! However, none of us want to see destruction.

I am new to this blog and am trying to post for the 2nd time
Hopefully Gustav weakens and is torn apart by shear
Any signs of Fall anywhere >>> anyone ?

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I don't think the storm will get torn apart by shear, but it could weaken it depending in the amount of shear.  Also, dry air can work into hurricanes/tropical storms and weaken them that way too.

Jeremy

Fall 4 - look through yesterday's blog -- there was talk about signs of fall -- finches changing color, geese, squirrels and nuts - probably all old wives' tales, but interesting anyway.  Kind of gets ya to thinking!  Welcome to the blog by the way!

The convection is starting to fire now in SE Nebraska.  Looking at sounding progs, we should break the cap in the next 1-3 hours.  

Per soundings we have about 4-5k of CAPE to work with.

Here's a neat link:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_sat.html#a_topad

Go to the bottom where the radar is and hit "zoom out" - watching it, just for a second, you see the eye (very small KCWX!) and then it disappears.  But the whole mass seems to be getting more defined - and bigger.  Sort of like those old-timed cotton candy swirlers at the fair!

Shear. Shear.  I have been using shear and was corrected [incorrectly] to sheer.  It is shear.

Shear.  There, I said it.  LOL

There's Hanna!  http://www.tropmet.com/alert_2_maps.htm

As long as no one calls it the Hurricane Hanna Montana I think we'll be okay.

LOL Stormhammer!!