NBC Action Communities

gary:

119th & state line ended with .47"

Good morning Gary,

The truth is, the newspaper business is slowly dying [see newspaper lay-offs]. People increasing get their news, weather and sports in "real-time" from cable media and niche on-line venues. I would not pay too much attention to the negative slant from the Star. Accuracy in weather forecasting is indeed a difficult task because of the natural dynamics in the atmosphere and the variability of weather by specific location. The Kansas City metro area covers a wide geography, more than many metro areas in the country. As a result, a great forecast in one part of the metro can be a "miss" in another area of the metro. Just yesterday, we had high temperatures differences of 5+ degrees accross the metro. The Weather Team does a great job! Having lived in other TV markets, I can attest to this. Accolades to all.

In south OP, my high was 97 yesterday...

Bob

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Bob,

Thanks.  I am not really worried about it and I would just like Aaron to be more positive about it.

Gary

Audra - I was reading your posts from yesterday and laughing.  Souds just like what we were getting!  There was nothing, then HORRIBLE straight line winds.  The bird feeders were almost horizontal to the ground it was blowing so hard.  A short itme later, the rain came and it POURED. Of course bad lightening and thunder - lost our electricity for a bit, lost our satellite for over an hour -- scary storm!  But not too scary since I knew there weren't going to be any tornados - any other time (likein the spring), I think I would have headed to the basement.  We had a bunch of limbs down this morning.

That lightning display last night was incredible.  We had soccer practice in Lees Summit at 5:30.  When I left for the field at 5:15 everything looked fine but when we got there the lightning bolts were everywhere and striking with great frequency.  Obviously we cancelled practice and as I stayed in the car to ensure that everyone made it away safely, my son and I watched the display.  It was amazing.

Let us hope and pray for those in gulf and that Gustav does not cause much damage.

1.89" here in Blue Springs.

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It appears to me that Blue Springs may have had one of the highest amounts.  Thanks for the report.

Gary

I have my rain report for the northland near 169 & Englewood.

ZERO (my rain guage continues to be a good bug catcher)

I was fortunate enough to be at Arrowhead for all 3 rounds of thunderstorms that went through there.  Hail, wind, torrential rain you name it, it happened.  It sure is  a good thing the start time of the game was moved up to 6..lol.

I didn't realize WeatherRate was so rarely used.  Can you point me to where I could find the ratings for some of the other markets that use it...and some of the markets that are so close?  Where do you get that data?

How much do you pay to have WeatherRate rank you the most accurate?

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Notes,

I am not even sure how much we pay.  Their website is for users only, so I can't get you access to it.

And, think about this.  I have my AMS seal of approval.  Jeremy, Brett, and I all have the seal.  Eventually within the next year we will likely all be taking the CBM test to get to the next level that the American Meteorological Society is requiring.  But, to keep the CBM or AMS seal of approval you have to pay each year.  So, this is all Weatherate is doing.  First of all you have to be the most accurate, then secondly to use their certification you have to pay for it.  Do we need to use it?  I say no, but the promotion has worked. 

So, to answer your last question, we don't have to pay to have Weatherate rank us the most accurate.  KSHB is the most accurate and we have been for much longer than the 6 years Weatherate has existed. 

Gary

Boy were you right about northwest.  The dots of sprinkles almost connected at one point but never quite made it.  It's getting frustrating over here.  Trees are soliciting dogs.

As far as the local paper goes....pffffft.  They could print that the sun shines in the daytime and I'd automatically question it.

Gary, by N Tullis and NE 76th our cloud totals for yesterday were many.  Our rain total is zero.

It appears to me that Blue Springs may have had one of the highest amounts........wonder what storm dog has to say about that.

1.25 in SE lee's Summit

Gary,

After my rainfall total blog entry last night we got another T-Storm around 10:30 with .47 bringing my total in SW Grain Valley to 2.01, seems like eastern Jackson County was in the bulls eye this time, that doesn't happen very often.

You guys all do such an amazing job, your simply the best..CONGRATS!!!

Jeff

Gary, regardless of what Aaron says, based on his writings, it appears as though he's saying if you don't use the rankings, then you're not No. 1.  It would be like the Royals saying they don't use the Elias Sports Bureau stats so they're not in last place.  Or it would be like a newpaper not subscribing to the Associated Press feed so the news never happened.

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Good analogies!  Have a great holiday weekend.

Gary

Paola--.51

North Blue Springs had 1.04 inches of rain in about 1/2 hour

Paul

Unless NBC Action News owns WeatherRate, I don't see what the fuss is about with this thing.  Who cares how many stations they rate or what you pay or don't pay, as long as their an independent verification.

As for the KC Star, well there's a reason I don't pay money to read their garbage.  I wonder why they're laying off people left and right, BECAUSE NO ONE READS IT.

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I read it this morning.  LOL

Gary

Sure wish we could have had more rain here.  Only 4/10 of inch here near Warrensburg.  It looked very promising for awhile, but didn't amount to much.  Oh well, back to watering the garden, I guess.

Are you around Braysmama?  She has a water gauge in Kingsville (I never got one) but I'd say we're a close second if not first to Blue Springs - it poured for easy overan hour. Not poured - like huge buckets dumping.  We're the little town that everyone forgets!  Waaah!

I am glad I could make you laugh HummerSeeker. The weather was amazing there for over an hour. Even my husbans was impressed. I think his comment was, "at least this is worthy of a severe thunderstorm warning." Then it was just a thunder storm. When it first started to dump buckets of water on us and the winds picked up, I was worried a bit and going to the basement did cross my mind. But everyone here said that there was just about a zero chance of tornados so I toughed it out. But with the clouds moving in all directions yesterday just before it poured and it being a greenish grey color outside when I could actually see outside  through the wind and rain, I was a little concerned. Plus the 20 degree drop in temp. in a very short time was something I was told to look for. Were we live it is a area of "high ground" at least that is what all the neighbors tell me. More than one house in our very small tract (40 homes) has been struck by lightning and burned. You can tell the homes that have had issues with lightning in the past as they now have lightning rods EVERYWHERE. Based on the thunder in relation to the lightning, many things got struck right by us. Very bright flashes almost at the exact time as the thunder. I fully expected to see at least one of our many trees struck by lightning when the sun came up. Bummer about loosing your power HummerSeeker. We are lucky here, our utilities are underground so we don't loose our power very often. The animals don't like it when the lightning is so close, they get really close to us and bark at the thunder, like that will do anything. Based on what we experienced, I would have to agree that the Blue Springs area got the worst of yesterdays storm. So if some of you think I freak out a little bit during interesting storms, all I can say is this Calfornia girl is still getting used to actually having weather. We did not really have weather in So. Cal. unless you call the seasons (smog season, fire season, flood season, baking season) weather. Have a great weekend everybody!

Ha ha Audra!  CA Seasons!  One of our dogs wants to go out - the badder the storm, themore he whines and scratches to go out.  One of the others has to be under as many blankets as we can pile on!  He hears thunder and starts rooting around in the bed!  It's funny, but sad- he shakes so bad.  Then they ALL like to chase the fat bullfrogs we get in our yard after the rains!  I always wondered about lightening rods - we have two on our house that were there when we moved, and we actually did get zapped by lightening once last year - or something.  It sounded like a loud sound, and everything lit up, the power went off - when it cameback on later, our computer was just gone.  Totally fried.  We had a discussion about how stupid was it to put big metal poles on top of your house - doesn't that attract the lightening?  Oh well!  Everyone be safe today and the rest of the weekend!

2.1" south of the Stadiums

My understanding about lightning rods HummerSeeker is that they give the lightning a safe channel to go. The lightning hits the rods, it goes through the rod, down the metal cable attached to it and goes down to the metal stake that is in the ground, thus "grounding" the lightning and keeping the house safe. Each metal cable attached to each lightning rod is approx. 1" in diameter. I don't know if the rods attact the lightning or not. I have heard both arguments concerning that. I would not discribe them "big metal poles" on top of the house. I would guess they are about 18"-24" tall and they are not too thick, so they kind of blend in to the roof line. I am sorry to hear about your computer frying. That is why during the worst of it yesterday, I unplugged my laptop. I don't care of the router gets nailed, it is cheaper to replace than my laptop. The past owners of our house were really freaked about lightning, they put a surge protector on the incoming power line for the house. Many people in my neighborhood have lots of lightning rods on their houses. I think we have 11 rods on the house alone. They were put on the out buildings too. I think the house has been struck while I have lived here (3 years now) but the lightning rods or luck protected us. I figure they are cheap insurance in the long run. As to one of your dogs wanting to go outside during the storm yesterday. Mine too wanted to go out to do their business. I opened the door for them and they just looked at me. I got them to go outside but they just stood as close to the door as they could get and barked to come back inside. They are chickens, cute chickens, but chickens none the less. Isn't that one of the reasons we love them?

Gary, Truthfully, I don't understand weatherrate or how meteorologists are certified but I know a heck of alot about weather and I've watched a lot of different weather channels, and I know who are fools and who are not. Gary, you and your team are definitely not fools. That's why I drop what I'm doing around 17 after 5, 6, or 10(iF I'm home) and run to the tv. Your passion and explanation of the weather is the greatest and by far the most accurate I dont need a weather rate system to tell me  that. I have good judgement on which meteorologists I choose to watch. As for the tropics. two very interesting storms in the tropics. I'd like that if we had gustav affect us next week. although my parents would beg to differ. When the leftovers of Dolly came over us they said they'd never had their basement flood so bad. but like I said before you get the good with the bad. Stay positive Gary.

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HailJonathan,

Thanks so much!  I never wanted to use Weatherate, but it has been a good promotion for our station.

Anyway, Gustav may have an impact on our weather one way or another, but if we see any rain from Gustav it will be like finding a needle in a haystack. The chance is pretty small, but there.

Gary

Of course Audra! But this is a beagle that wandered up to our house andmoved in a year or so ago. I think he was an outside dog originally - at first whenhe would do that during a storm, we figured hejust HAD to go so we lethim out. Dummy just stood in the middle of the yard, looking up at the sky with his ears flapping and mouth hanging open!  Now how dumb is THAT?  Our rods aren't great great big, but they do show up when you drive down the road.  I can't believe having 11!  We unplug our computer these days too - once is enough!

Wow - Tropmet is predicting Hanna to take a really sharp turn to the south and not hit the US at all.  I didn't copy the link but if anyone wants it I will!  I also see they've moved Gustav back just a tad east, more into LA than TX.  www.tropmet.com has both of these hurricanes on there - click on the radar and then you can pick different things to view (wind, 5-day, etc.)

Here's Hanna's prediction - and yes, I know they change alot between there and here - but it doesn't look like it's coming to Florida at this time:

http://www.tropmet.com/alert_2_maps.htm

Gary, the kids and I enjoyed watching the strange weather systems yesterday.  One question came up that I couldn't address, and for which I'm hoping there is a simple answer (because, frankly, they're smarter than me!):  

Why do the sky and the light outside change into that sickly shade of greenish-yellowish-brownish during that kind of weather?

I'll add my own question to that.  Back home in Texas, we automatically would turn on the news and calmly watch for funnel clouds when the sky took on that weird shade.  Is there any basis for that automatic reaction?

Thanks!
Joia
(Josh's wife)

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Joia,

Last night the sky took on a brownish/orange tint to the entire look around 15 minutes after sunset.  We had many different layers of clouds with big thunderstorms south of the city by sunset.  The anvils were spreading out above the other clouds with mammatus visible through the various clouds below.  After the sunset the sun was creating an orange glow to the highest cumulunimbus towers that caused the entire sky to have that beautiful color to it.

The greenish tints are caused by the sunlight reflecting and refracting through hailstones in the sky.  So, when you see the green tint this is when the thunderstorms are likely strong.

Gary

Olathe North HS- .48"

Looking at radar estimates that's about right!

I would love to hear what the weather team has to say to your question Joia. We experienced the same color outside right after the lower clouds were moving all over the place. I don't know if they were trying to rotate or they were just confused as to which direction to go. First they would move W towards the storm that was heading E, then they would move N, etc. They were just all over the place. Where approx. are you located? I think I heard or read somewhere that Texas gets the most tornados in the nation, yet when you think tornado alley you (at least I do) think OK or KS.
Audra

Why is weather rate so hush hush with their site? I do find it odd that you have to be a tv station or such to join their site. They do not supply their information to anybody but closed subscribers.

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It is their choice to be that way as to protect the second, third and fourth place stations.  They have requested that I don't share who is not in first place.  They are not in the business of saying who is the worst, just who is the best.  Does this make sense? 

Gary

I almost cried watching the radar last night...so close, yet so far away.  The thunder sounded so nice...but nothing.  I had to water the garden this morning.

First, where is Stormdog?  Didn't Blue Springs get quite a bit of rain?  Perhaps he is still reveling in the abundant rain drops.

Second, Weatherate.  I have already shared my thoughts on this, so I won't go much into it.  I think it is a poor representation of accuracy.  The more I learn about forecasting, and the subsequent perception about accuracy, the less inclined I am to imagine there is a bit of objective and quantitative data to back it up.

I don't need Weatherate to pick a weather team.  This team does a great job.

Third - AMS CBM.  While i appreciate the analogy, this program is completely different.  While it can be used as a media promotion tool, there is a bit more to it than that.  I does require testing and ongoing education to maintain its certification.

I think using the AMS and Weatherate is a whimsical comparison to make the point.    

They are completely different.

Gary, don't worry about Aaron.  While some of his thoughts are valid in how he presents them, much like all media, it is spun to support his point of view.

Since Weatherrate does not freely provide its "findings", it lends itself by nature to be less credible.  Such as life.  It is a nice badge for your promotions department, but beyond that..there isn't much to it in my opinion.

Enjoyed the rain last night...we got some nice amounts...but, alas..back to the tropics.

Hi Gary,
An FYI - On your web/forecast page the graphics are messed up.  The 7 day shows the temps and nothing else on a black screen.  A couple of the others are the same way.
Love this weather!

Gary,
Thanks for answering Joia's and my question. I figured that the golden color was due to the lateness of the day, but I did not know what caused the greenish cast. Does this hold true when tornados are possiable too? Greenish cast=stronger thunderstorms= possiablility of tornados? I have heard to look for a greenish cast when concerned with tornados.
Audra

I was just going to say that same thing StormWyndd. I can only see radar and SkyCam. Everything else is black with white letters.

Its funny how someone in the Star who is suppose to be reporter, does not contact you first to get some input or let you defend yourself.   That section of the paper is sensationalized anyway, much like most news media these days.    

I do not need WeatherRate to tell me who the most accurate is, it is obvious.   I could see where only 9 stations would use the service.   If I had paid and lost just one time, you could not use it as advertising and it would be wasted $$$.    You better be able to win every time, like KSHB, or you would not be able to use that info for the year.    One question,  can you subscribe to the service after they put out the ratings, or do you have to pay before the year starts?    

Its mind boggling to see the difference in this market.   You guys blow away the rest, esp 3rd and 4th.     While we would all love to know who they were, we understand you cannot provide that info.   I can take a wild guess, but since I hardly ever watch the other guys in a long time, I have no clue.

Have a great and safe Labor day weekend!!!
Joe

Well all Aaron needs to do is WATCH the different stations for awhile and then it would be crystal clear to him, you guys are on a totally higher level then all of the other stations in this market as far as I'm concerned and I have been watching the local stations since I was a little kid.  Oh, and it is not just the accuracy it is the time and energy that you guys have put in the blog ect.
As for the tropics, well it looks to be a long week next week not only with Gustav, but with his sister Hanna which already is looking like she wants to play havoc with tracking forecasts ect.  Not to mention the complications that Gustav will eventually pose to our weather either providing and/or KILLING rain chances ect.

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Nick,

Thanks, and the latest ECMWF (European model) brings Gustav right over KC.

Gary

Oh, by the way the links to ESP, 7-day, ect. look like they are having some issues, kind of neat looking though.

Looking at the latest sat loop of Gustav, I think it is back to Hurricane Gustav, definitely has an eye!

Nick Rau- It is a hurricane again. Up to 75 MPH at 3:15 update.

I sent you some pictures of the storm, can you please confirm i sent them to the right e-mail?

Notes et al,

Weatherate's site is not especially helpful, but as usual..Google is.

http://www.google.com/patents?id=B2qfAAAAEBAJ&dq=Weatherate

Really.  This is it?  This is how it is done?  I think a computer, the NWS CF6 data, an Access Database and Excel with some basic formulas probably can do the same thing.

Offers up some thought on how this can be worked around to manipulate the accuracy.

Lets think of last night.  70% chance rain predicted.  Per the viewing area, that validated.  Per KMCI...it did not.  Back to the age old question...is a station forecasting to a point or to the DMA?

Makes a HUGE difference for accuracy.  I will have to read more of this information, but from first blush, I was very surprised of the simplicity.


LOL

I wonder how much different Weatherate is from methods of scoring forecast contests major universities sponsor...

Oh well..enough of this topic...

Stormdog - (eating crow this time) we got nailed - quarter sized hail at least, gusty winds, torrents of rain, cgs, cracks of thunder, the lot - 2.34 inches in my rain-gauge - a Stratus with overflow over one inch and that with wind-blown rain.

Gustav is gonna be a real economic problem, giving our glorious Oil Company friends and speculators a reason to possibly raise gas prices to $5.00 per gallon (per CNN Fri evening).  Talk about an economy killer, besides a people killer, geez, just go away Gustav.

Dog

And Hanna and future Ike and the others...

Dog, I am soooo glad to see you got something this time.  Clearly, this is a sign of the new cycle!

[Not to mention where the Euro brings Gustav near KC] - sound familiar, Gary?

~ducks

When I got to school this morning (Sherwood at Creighton), we had quite a bit of damage from last night. Trees and power lines down, windows blown out and a metal building with damage. Not sure what went through there, but it wasn't pretty.
Pat

http://blogs.kansascity.com/tvbarn/2008/08/be-kind-to-gary.html

This is what Aaron has said today. Quite intresting...

Gustav has a huge new flare-up of storms!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Gustav looks like it's going to bomb tonight...

Lightning rods..

The roughly foot long rods don't attract lightning.. but if grounded properly, should provide a safe channel for lightning to take into the ground where it can dissipate.  Some kind of protection is needed for your electrical box, though.  Half inch cable attached to buried 10 foot copper rods pushed down vertically into the ground is standard.. and several grounds are needed.  I have three grounds for 7 rods on the roof.

If you have rods or metal poles on the roof without a ground connection, the charge then goes right into the roof and on through the structure and into the electrical system.   A ong metal pole on the roof, like an old TV aerial, is more likely to get hit, as it provides a significantly higher target, unlike lightning rods.  Combined with no ground, that is the worst thing to have.

YIKES...Gustav is a Cat 3 now. I just can not imagine another major hurricane hitting New Orleans...surely not!! Man I feel bad for all these costal areas that are gonna get hit. Ughhh!!
Monica

This is the firts hurricane I've every truly worried about???????

We need a news blog about Gustav, I might also be going into depression, I playied Greensleeves alday yesterday without eating!

Gustav could be Cat 4 prior to landfall in Western Cuba per advisory 22A. Wow, HailJ was right, Gustav bombed something fierce overnight. 24 mb in 24 hours at one point...

*************

Gustav is now a monster.  Impressive looking on the satellite this a.m.!  How's the new schedule?

Jeremy

It just goes to show, you can  become something major overnight.