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Weekend Weather & Gustav...UPDATED

Watch NBC Action News HD this weekend from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. for Kansas City's most accurate forecast!

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A quick update on hurricane Gustav.  The storm has strengthened into a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustatined winds of 145 mph.  Wind gusts are estimated to be around 173 mph.  Here is a look at the infrared satellite at 1:45 p.m.  The eye is just on the edge of the Isle of Youth.

 

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The unofficial end of summer is here...the Labor Day weekend.  It always seems like the summer's go by so fast, but especially this summer since weather conditions overall were pretty nice with only one heat wave.  We'll look more at Meteorological summer later today.

First, let's check out the comfortable to almost chilly morning lows across the region this morning. 

  • St. Joseph  51
  • Lawrence  52
  • Chillicothe  54
  • Olathe  58
  • Knob Noster  58
  • KCI Airport  61

With high pressure just east of the area today our winds will be east to southeast and this should help to keep the humidity in check and give us a warm, but comfortable day.  If you are heading to Lawrence for the Jayhawks home opener kickoff temperatures around 6 p.m. should be 84.

Dew points will increase thru the 60s to around 70 by late Sunday and into Monday.  So after a nice start it will certainly feel like summer by Sunday and Monday.  Highs should warm into the low 90s in most areas by Monday.  A few 90s will likely appear on Sunday though too, best chance will be near and west of the state line. 

Here is the GFS forecast temperature map for Labor Day.

The biggest weather story for the coming week...and maybe this year will be hurricane Gustav.  This storm is 'bombing' right now as it is strengthening rapidly.  Winds as of this writing are sustained at 120 mph with gusts to 144 mph.  The visible satellite from this morning shows the eye of Gustav very clearly.  I would not want to be living on the Isle of Youth right now...which is the island just southwest of Cuba.  The western part of Cuba will also be taking a direct hit from Gustav.

 

Gustav will be moving over very warm waters before reaching Cuba and I expect this to reach category 4 status later today.  The water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are warm, but a little cooler than those in the Carribean.  I would post some maps...but this interactive site from noaa let's you choose the areas you would like view the water temps.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html

Gustav will likely reach the U.S. as a major hurricane sometime early Tuesday.  Best estimate of the path takes Gustav somewhere along the Louisiana Coast.  This was the forecast from the NHC from early Saturday.

Please keep in mind the white cone represents the possilbe path or area of uncertainty.  The forecast error 3 days out is still pretty large.  So anywhere along the central Gulf Coast needs to start preparing for a major hurricane!

I will use Powercast on the newscasts this weekend to show you the high definition-high resoluction projected path and possible area of landfall in the United States for Gustav.  This is something you will find only on NBC Action News! 

Have a great weekend and as you gather with friends and family this holiday weekend make sure to mention that NBC Action Weather Plus is home to Kansas City's most accurate forecast!

Jeremy

 

Published Saturday, August 30, 2008 7:50 AM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

weatherwyco said:

Good Saturday Morning!

Looks like evacuations have begun for portions of southern LA including the New Orleans area. I guess the good thing about this storm is that it looks like it will miss the "loop current" and will encounter some unfavorable conditions before landfall. The question will be if it is enough to cause significant weakening before landfall.
August 30, 2008 9:27 AM
 

Brocksmama said:

I really feel for the people in the Gulf Coast- especially Louisiana!  I doubt it's something you ever really get used to- what stress they must be feeling.  Do you think Gustav has the potential to become as strong as Hurricane Katrina?  Lets hope everyone gets evacuated this time!  Dea
August 30, 2008 9:31 AM
 

weatherwyco said:

Brocksmama,

I would honestly be very surprised if Gustav got as strong as Katrina. Most of the deadliest hurricanes have passed through what is called the "loop current" Gustav looks to miss this current and the current itself is getting smaller at this point. Here is a look at what the current is from Wikipedia.

In the Gulf of Mexico, the deepest areas of warm water are associated with the Loop Current and the rings of current that have separated from the Loop Current are commonly called Loop Current eddies. The warm waters of the Loop Current and its associated eddies provide more energy to hurricanes and allow them to intensify.
The turbulent environment of hurricanes pulls up water from beneath the surface, often upwelling cooler water. Stronger hurricanes upwell deeper water. If the water in the lower levels is significantly cooler, the water will limit the hurricane's ability to strengthen, and may even cause it to weaken. But if the water is still warm at lower depths, then water being pulled to the surface remains warm, and the hurricane can increase in intensity if other atmospheric conditions are also conducive to strengthening. Meteorologists look for areas of deep warm water of at least 26 degrees Celsius (79°F). A continuous supply of warm water is one of several critical factors in enabling hurricanes to intensify beyond the initial level of a major hurricane (Category 3).
When a hurricane is traveling quickly over warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), intensity might be maintained despite upwelling because the hurricane moves on before the cooler water impacts the hurricane.
An example of how deep warm water, including the Loop Current, can allow a hurricane to strengthen, if other conditions are also favorable, is Hurricane Camille, which made landfall on the Mississippi Gulf Coast in August of 1969. Camille formed in the deep warm waters of the Caribbean, which enabled it to rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane in one day. It rounded the western tip of Cuba, and its path took it directly over the Loop Current, all the way north towards the coast, during which time the rapid intensification continued. Camille became a Category 5 hurricane, with an intensity rarely seen, and extremely high winds that were maintained until landfall (190 mph / 305 km/h sustained winds were estimated to have occurred in a very small area to the right of the eye).
In 1980, Hurricane Allen strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane while moving over the Loop Current, but it weakened before landfall in Texas.
In 2005, Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita both greatly increased in strength when they passed over the warmer waters of the Loop Current. Hurricane Wilma of 2005 was expected to make its Florida landfall as a Category 2 hurricane, but after encountering the southeastern portion of the Loop Current, it reached the Florida coast as a Category 3 instead. [1]
August 30, 2008 9:42 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Strong is a relative term.  Katrina was a Cat 3 at landfall.  Gus may be as well.  It is not so much the wind that is the killer but the rain and storm surge.

Katrina was a huge storm as far as size.  Gus likely will not be a big, thus reducing its windfield potential.  Less windfield less potential storm surge over a great area.

Don't get me wrong, it will still be rather significant, but not the sheer size of Katrina.

Wyco, I am thinking Gus will clip some of the southern loop.  I would not be surprised to see it bomb again after coming off Cuba.
August 30, 2008 9:59 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

like what scott said, katrina made its impact in storm surge.  katrina was a huge storm thats peak wind gust as it made land fall was 116mph, but that was offshore.  granted those are still strong winds, but few places even saw 100mph gusts with katrina.  the winds clearly are stronger at the moment with gustav, but storms that make landfall in the northern gulf weaken right before landfall 9 times out of 10.  this is due to the shallow water in the N gulf...which you can thank the miss. river for.  it deposits tons and tons of sediment every year, keeping the gulf shallow.  

long story short, unless if gustav increases its areal coverage pretty rapidly, far less open water will be affected, and therefore the storm surge will be considerably less.  as it stands now, given the predicted track, it would seem that gustav could be a cat three as it approaches SW LA, then it will hit the breaks, and creep on to the west, finally making landfall somewhere in extreme NE TX...probably as a cat 2.  

rain will be a big factor, although, the rainfall rates arent very impressive with gustav at the moment.  in fact, fay had more impressive rain bands when she was making her trek across cuba...not to mention far greater rain totals.  of course, lets see what gustav's rain bands do when they interact with the mainland in the gulf states.... ***************** I wouldn't down play Gustav for a second. Wind, flooding, and storm surge will all be significant. Any category 3 or greater hurricane is considered a major hurricane and will result in a lot of damage and if people don't listen to the evacuations possible loss of life. Not trying to scare anyone, but even if Gustav weakens from say 125 to 115 mph winds right before landfall the results will still be devastating for many along the coast. Jeremy
August 30, 2008 10:24 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Jeremy, I like the "bomb" term  you used, this is in deed a serious event, although i'm a little more relieved to see that new Orleans has been removed from it's most direct path, though that's not saying much at this point because it's too early to say.
It looks like it's having trouble maintaining a good eyewall and I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing, it's like an eyewall replacement cycle though Gustav really never had a "good eye" to begin with so I'm not sure if this just means it's just going to "bomb" even more and then come out with a brilliant eye or maybe level off. land is getting close. Thoughts appreciated! ***************** 'Bombing' is a common weather term for an area of low pressure that rapidly strengthens in a 24 hour period. Jeremy
August 30, 2008 11:06 AM
 

MCIRamp said:

Well said, Jeremy.  I completely agree.  Those 80 mph winds that came through the metro July 2 were enough to push the walls of that fast food restaurant in Independence.  115 mph sustained winds translates into twice that amount of force.  

From what I've been reading out of New Orleans, they are doing a good job of starting evacuations early as some previous bloggers have stated.  If anyone is interested in getting a broader knowledge of all that is going on down there, and is updated rather frequently, a good website is www.nola.com.  
August 30, 2008 11:42 AM
 

weatherwyco said:

Looks like we have a CAT 4 on our hands now! 145 MPH winds found by Air Force at 1:20 ET ************** A dangerous storm and it could strengthen a bit more. Jeremy
August 30, 2008 12:27 PM
 

mmancubfan said:

Wyco...yeah HH plane is finishing up its flight through it this afternoon.

It dropped 19MB in 3 hours!!!!  In line with a Wilma type strengthening process and going to go over a very thin, flat part of Cuba.

Feel sorry for the people of Cuba and the Isle of Youth right now!!

August 30, 2008 1:00 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

latest satellite shows perfect concentric eye. no longer ragged but it looks like it's going over the Isle of Youth now so it may weaken it a bit. wow I hope everyone is in shelters or off the island.
August 30, 2008 1:01 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

thanks everyone for all your hurricane info- I am not very knowledgeable when it comes to Hurricanes- I just know I would not want to be in one!  Dea
August 30, 2008 1:23 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Jeremy,

I don't think PVT was downplaying the human aspect to the potential destruction.  Nor am I.

I think we are both commenting on the pure meteorological aspects of the storm and its relationship with the ocean as it heads to the mainland.

Wind is always certainly a consideration, but I fully agree with PVT that it is the surge and rain that typically are the biggest problems...not to say wind isn't, but not  in the scale of the others.

Gustav still has some nice water ahead...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008242go.jpg

Gustav may even get north of 25N tapping the loop current based on current path progs.

Hurricanes seem to have a "feel" for areas that bog them down, and don't be surprised to see Gus jog here and there to keep in the best environment.

This is a dangerous storm.  I pray for all those in the path.  

It is quite fascinating to watch from a weather perspective.  I will be very attentive to its path inland and how broad the windfield expands...

Probably will start watching the buoy heights as well.  I suspect I will see 30 ft swells in the open ocean with Gus.  I remember 50+ with Katrina.

How low can Gus go on pressure..any guesses?  I think he will max out in the 930s somewhere...

***************

It is brushing the Isle of Youth right now...so it may intensify a bit more before reaching Cuba.  It will likely weaken some in the Gulf, but probably not enough to lessen the blow much to the area it makes landfall on.

Jeremy

August 30, 2008 1:29 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Scratch that for lowest.  Seems Gus is already in the 930s
August 30, 2008 1:38 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

How mountainous is the Isle of Youth and the eastern tip of Cuba?   One thing that I would be watching for NOLA is that it might stay west enough to spare them(hopefully) but one thing that would worry me if I lived there is the "angle of attack" of the storm, if it expands its wind field or wobbles just far enough west the path of the storm coming at Louisiana from the south east would not only put NOLA in the right front quadrant, but would be in a very "good" position to fill Lake P.train with storm surge, remember with Katrina the city actually barely missed the right front quadrant as it jogged to the east right before land fall.

*************

It looks like NOLA will stay east, and maybe east enough to avoid the really bad flooding.  I think by Sunday evening we should have a really good idea of where the eye may head towards.  Also will any shear or dry air work in?  Lots of questions, but there will be a land falling hurricane likely Tuesday along the Gulf Coast.

Jeremy

August 30, 2008 2:02 PM
 

juba said:

Were now a catagory four Hurricnae with winds up to145 MPH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
August 30, 2008 2:31 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Judgement Day is Approaching Fast. Its gonna hit NOLA.

BTW, Katrina was a Cat. 3 Storm when it made Landfall. This 1... Maybe a 4 or 5.

God Bless those Souls that will be down in NO. Hopefully the city wont all be under water...

August 30, 2008 3:28 PM
 

Stormdog said:

Stormdog - Gus's track to east of New Orleans - surge greatest just east of the track - flooding could threaten New Orleans from the south this time as well as from the north and Lake P.   According to the NAM and the GFS there is a high pressure covering areas east of the Missippi River aloft at that time, meaning that any remants may be forced further west then north towards Missouri, than one might think of a storm hitting as far east as Louisiana.  Something to thinks about.

Stormdog
August 30, 2008 3:33 PM
 

GaryB said:

"Katrina was a huge storm as far as size.  Gus likely will not be a big, thus reducing its windfield potential.  Less windfield less potential storm surge over a great area."

Scott, I believe those people along the coast will most certainly hope you are correct.  

It's like trying to size a tornado.  It might be anywhere from an F1 to an F5.  It's still a "tornado".  Where it eventually hits the coast is what matters and this hurricane is still far enough out to go wherever it wants.  It's probably a bit premature to second guess Gus.
August 30, 2008 3:46 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

Chfs327 -  Your comments are completely unacceptable on this blog.
August 30, 2008 3:53 PM
 

subby64735 said:

150 mph sustained winds and 942 mb pressure on latest run (5pm EDT).  FYI  Jim in Clinton
August 30, 2008 4:04 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

Latest update from NOAA at 5pm eastern says the winds are up to 150 mph.... evidently Cuba isn't having much impact on slowing it down :(
August 30, 2008 4:05 PM
 

DaveC said:

amazing how quick this hurricane got going at almost full force. I would not take any "long term" track as truthful at this point, remember this thing has changed tracks in some very odd ways near Haiti.
August 30, 2008 4:26 PM
 

chfs327 said:

weatherwyco. Thats just the kid of person I am, I know it might be a little controversal but that is how i have always been.

*********************

With a hurricane of this strength and the likelyhood of significant damage or possible loss of life please be sensitive to others.

Jeremy

August 30, 2008 4:49 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Btw, The Associate Press is Now reporting That 10% of all Gas Stations in and around New Orleans is now Out of Gas. This is gonna cause havoc across Louisana Tonight and Tomorrow during Evacuations.
August 30, 2008 4:54 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I was there for Katrina and all the evacs.  It was a nightmare.  God bless anyone that stays....
August 30, 2008 6:03 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Jeremy, I know that there gonna be a Significant damage and Loss of life from this Hurricane. Thats why its called Judgement Day. Because of this Strength and dangerous Situation. I somewhat told of a Judgement day Situation back a couple days before the May 1st-2nd Tornados that hit the KC.

I know some people on this blog are a little sensitive of my posts. But do not be afraid because Im here.
August 30, 2008 6:13 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

at intellicast.com, they are forecasting a cat 5 in the gulf and 145 mph winds west of NO at landfall. I don't know if any of you ever check out that site it's interesting. What I am gathering with that information: since that storms don't stay cat 5s very long they fluctuate so I guess they are expecting the weakening fluctuation right before landfall, but you could also look at it the other way around too. Food for thought. This is scary that we are having so many devastating hurricanes in just a short period of time. God bless.
August 30, 2008 6:56 PM
 

juba said:

Gustav weekedned a bit over land, but there is still an eye, hurricanes are pretty, I think there better doing what bertha did!
August 30, 2008 7:47 PM
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