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Gustav update & its impact on KC...SUNDAY UPDATE

Watch NBC Action News HD this weekend from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. for updates on Gustav and Kansas City's most accurate forecast!

*************************

Hurricane Gustav weakened early Sunday and now has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.  Some flucuation in strength is likely on Sunday and Sunday Night.  As of Sunday morning the satellite view of Gustav showed a ragged eye and a little disorganization.  With that said, it is still a major hurricane and will likely make landfall as a major hurricane on Monday. 

Here is the satellite picture I was referring to.

The forecast path is a little more to the right than the path shown below from last night.

Please check out the blog from last night below.  It makes a good comparison from where Gustav was yesterday and the trend into Sunday.  We'll have updates all day long on the blog!

*******************************

Good evening bloggers!  Hurricane Gustav made landfall in Cuba this evening as a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds estimated at 150 mph.  I'm guessing the devastation will be extensive.  The National Hurricane Center did receive some reports out of Cuba after Gustav made landfall.  Here is a paragraph from their 8 p.m. advisory.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  THERE ARE
UNOFFICIAL REPORTS FROM PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WINDS NEAR THESE ESTIMATES.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

With the number of bloggers growing each day on our site.  I came across a list of hurricane terms from the NHC that I will provide.  I think this covers most of the terms that can help your hurricane knowledge expand.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

Also, you can watch live coverage from our NBC affiliate in New Orleans as they are streaming their continuous coverage on the web.  Here is the link...

http://www.wdsu.com/video/17347538/index.html

The forecast path of Gustav really has not changed a lot since this morning.  However, the timing has.  Gustav continues to move along between 12-15 mph.  At this rate it will make landfall on Labor Day along the Gulf Coast, most likely somewhere between the Texas/Louisiana border and the Louisiana/Mississippi border.

Right now it looks like New Orleans would miss a direct hit from Gustav.  But if it does track to the west of NOLA it would put them in the right from quadrant of the storm, or very close to it.  This is an area that has the strongest winds, highest storm surge, and greatest potential for flooding.

As Gustav moves inland on Tuesday it will begin to push moisture northward.  At the same time a cold front will drop into our viewing area.  If Gustav's moisture reaches us before the front moves thru we are looking at heavy rain, but if the front drops thru first, then we could see some showers and storms along the front.  With most of the rain from Gustav staying south.  It will be a close call, but something we need to watch closely. 

We will keep you updated on Gustav's progress in the blog and on our newscasts.  This will be a major hurricane when it impacts the Gulf Coast, but just how strong is the question right now.

Thanks for stopping by the blog this holiday weekend.  Sunday and Monday look to be dry days with highs around 90.  If we do hit 90 on Sunday our contest would close with 13 days in the 90s I believe.  Gary will have the official results when he blogs on Monday morning.

Jeremy

Published Saturday, August 30, 2008 7:23 PM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

juba said:

I've been going into depression, scince I've heared that Gustav could hit Loisiana as a Cat 5, it's inexplicable, people will die, weather it be one or two, some poeple will stay in the path of Gustav.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5ItNxpwChE
Greensleeves.
August 30, 2008 8:04 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Jeremy, you have out done yourself.  While not a huge amount of self written content, you provided excellent resources in this entry.

Great flow, resources where needed, and a feel for what people are looking for.

Every time I think you have done your best entry, you top it.  In some ways, you may have eclipsed Gary in your blog writing.

Great work!

*******************

I had some time tonight to look up some things that should keep people interested and maybe a new view of Gustav.  Watching streaming coverage of other stations is always fun.  Looks like the hurricane may have weakened a little over Cuba.  Let's see what happens over the water tonight.

Jeremy

August 30, 2008 8:05 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

As a thought, maybe tomorrow you can write a quick blog on the steering high pressure in the NE and how it affects a storm in the Gulf.  

You could use an example from Fay to show how these larger entities from hundreds/thousands of miles away can influence the weather of a given area.

Just food for thought [probably because I am too lazy to blog on it myself..LOL]

*************

A good idea.  I think the high will also impact Hanna quite a bit.  That storm could be head scratcher by next week.

Jeremy

August 30, 2008 8:07 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Looking at the most recent model progs, it seems now the W/SW curl is being abandoned by the models.

Most are now looking to drive the storm up through the southern plains.  We will see...but that makes more sense as the patterns/longwaves are changing, and this looks where I think the new longwave trough wants to be.

Just my opinion...

Also, technology has come along way when you can track the storm and the recon flights from Google Earth.  It is a much better way to see what is going on.  I recommend it.
August 30, 2008 8:27 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Looking at a couple of sites for Model representation.

Wunderground.com Has the Path as a Cat. 4 Hurricane till about 2AM which will be a Cat. 5 Hurricane up untill about 8-10AM Monday Morning and has Landfall just west of NOLA as a Very Strong Cat.4 Hurricane

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807.html

Intellicast shows Basically The same thing
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Active.aspx?storm=1&type=track

The NWS just shows the track About the same with the other 2 Souces.

However. I saw earler today the storm trying to turn more eastern as it moved over Cuba. Im thinking that this will be a Direct Hit for NOLA.

I am Happy that the Mayor of NOLA is accually doing something right this time incourageing ppl to leave earler. Judgement Day However still stands with me on 9/1/08.

Also Saw a Black Catipiller Today. From the myth. Black means a Cold and very snowy winter while Green means a warm winter.

Again Thats just a Myth, But im believing in the Myth.
August 30, 2008 8:41 PM
 

marlina10 said:

Just seeing Gustav on the radar and satellite images gives me the chills. I would not want to be in the direct path of that storm.
August 30, 2008 8:53 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

WOW! This is from WDSU in NOLA,

NEW ORLEANS -- Residents who try to ride out Hurricane Gustav will be making the biggest mistake of their lives, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin warned on Saturday.
"You need to be scared. You need to be concerned. You need to get your butts out of New Orleans. This is the storm of the century," Nagin said.
Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Westbank starting at 8 a.m. Sunday, and mandatory evacuations of the Eastbank will begin at noon.
"Riding it out would be the biggest mistake you could make in your life," Nagin said.
Nagin warned that no emergency services will be available to residents who choose not to leave. He told residents who choose to stay to make sure they have an ax, as they will be cutting through their roofs to get out of their homes.
Nagin said 2005's Hurricane Katrina came ashore as a Category 3 storm. Gustav is expected to hit as either a Category 4 or 5.
The footprint of Katrina was about 400 miles when it hit. Gustav currently has a footprint of 900 miles and continues to grow.
The announcement comes as officials continued to evacuate the elderly, disabled, poor and others without means ahead of Gustav's march toward the Gulf Coast.
Officials began putting an estimated 30,000 of such residents on buses and trains Saturday morning, as Nagin also called on all tourists to leave.
The National Hurricane Center on Saturday called Gustav an "extremely dangerous" storm. President George W. Bush has already declared a state of emergency, and promised full federal support to the Gulf Coast states.
"This storm could be just as bad -- if not worse -- than Katrina," WDSU 6 WeatherPlus meteorologist Ron Smiley said.
The increase in the storm's intensity comes as people line up for buses to take them out of New Orleans. Traffic is also heavier on main highways out of the city as residents head north.
"Between the buses, train and aircraft, there is no reason for anyone to ride out the storm in New Orleans. This is simply too dangerous of a storm," David Paulison of FEMA said.

******************

Some of the people leaving Louisiana are arriving in Kansas City tonight and Sunday.  We are doing a story on the people arriving here tonight at 10pm and tomorrow morning.

Jeremy

August 30, 2008 9:03 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Wyco, I am not sure about some of those facts for sure.  I am not sure about the size comparison.  I will have to research it.

Jeremy, I expect one more bomb from Gustav tonight.  Extremely warm water and night time.  

We will wake up with Gustav perhaps in the 920s or high teens and in the low end of Cat 5 I think.

I am amazed already how big Gustav has expanded.  He has quite the foot print.  I have been watching the buoys in the Gulf...

So far not bad..but it will get bad.  I will become far more concerned when I see swells recorded at 50+ ft.

This is quite the storm.  

****************

I wonder if this is going to do something weird when it nears the coast.  Slows down a lot, moves farther west, etc.  Some of the models are taking this a decent amount west of the NHC forecast track.  It looks like it is gaining a little strength after the interaction with Cuba.

Jeremy

August 30, 2008 9:28 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

I am not getting a good feeling on this storm at all...I still feel a more eastward push than westward.  I made note of that yesterday/day before.

I am not buying the strength of the ridge that far south.  Also, based on where I think the new longwave trough is setting up...I can't go that far west.

This is not going to go well.  Sleep tight while Gus is bombing.

************

I wonder where all the people along the Gulf Coast will go...and how many will finally decide to just not move back. 

Maybe something odd will happen that will weaken the hurricane, but probably not in the next 12 hours.

Jeremy 

August 30, 2008 9:40 PM
 

Brent said:

I can say gustav hasmy attention now...at first I though it was going to be another little tropical storm that everyone would freak out about like the ones earlier this year...but being a cat. 4 and possibly going up to 5, I will be interested to watch it impact lousiana and see what effects it will have on our weather..I certainly would like some rain...we missed out on the big storms thursday night, but Harrisonville certainly got  hit hard by winds that I am sure were not forecasted to be as high as they were....quite a few trees were toppled...along with limbs scattered throughout the city. some of Harrisonville also lost power. but anyway, some rain would be nice and I see that right now its in the forecast..I hope it stays there.

Happy Labor day!

Brent ****************** Brent, Thanks for stopping by. Snow season isn't that far away! Jeremy
August 30, 2008 9:59 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Jeremy, that was a great detailed blog and thanks for the terms, while I knew most of them there were some I did not. This is just such an eery thing. I'm with Scott. In a few hours, Gustav will begin to bomb again, I think maybe at a significant rate because it's in a "sweet spot" in the gulf. I hope everybody is getting the heck out of dodge tonight. Jeremy, I noticed your thought about it doing something weird near the coast. What are your thoughts on that?
August 30, 2008 10:05 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Fill up your gas tanks tonight and tomorrow.  Rigs are shutting down along with the refineries.  Production will decrease as demand increases with the amount of vehicles filling up to leave the area, and others storing up fuel supplies.

IF this is as bad as it could be we are in for some higher prices.  We STILL have not fully recovered in the offshore oil and gas industry from Katrina.  Pipelines that run along the bottom of the ocean have still to be repaired, and many offshore wells are still inactive from Katrina.  


August 30, 2008 10:08 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Once again, I say that This storm will be the big one. Judgement Day as I call it.

Judgement Day- a Historical event involving the death of many people or somethings wrath of biblical proportions.

Once Again. I agree with the Mayor of New Orleans. The folks there need to get ther Butts Out and need to hurry fast. This thing will end up as a Strong Cat. 4 Hurricane as it makes landfall. But I expect it to mantain a Cat.5 Status for about 8-14 Hrs tomorrow. Tomorrow Night is when everything becomes aligned. NOLA Will get hit by the Hurricane. But to what extent is the main Consurn.
August 30, 2008 10:29 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Is it really on a biblical scale this gustav? If so then we will surely see the effects of it in Kansas City.
August 30, 2008 10:41 PM
 

A dogg said:

I have an aunt and uncle wholive in port arthur, tx, are they at high risk for getting the brunt of Gustav? ******************* As of now no, but let's see if it begins to move in a more NW or W-NW direction on Sunday. Jeremy
August 30, 2008 10:43 PM
 

A dogg said:

Thank Jeremy!
August 30, 2008 11:36 PM
 

juba said:

When does the next advisory come out, Gustav is down to 135 MPH with 955 MB.
August 31, 2008 3:30 AM
 

juba said:

When does the next advisory come out, Gustav is down to 135 MPH with 955 MB. **************** Winds are now 125 mph. A category 3 hurricane right now. Jeremy
August 31, 2008 3:30 AM
 

juba said:

And when does the nezt advosry come out, is there a schedule?
August 31, 2008 7:19 AM
 

juba said:

And when does the nezt advosry come out, is there a schedule?

**************

Next main update is scheduled for 10 a.m. central.

Jeremy

August 31, 2008 7:19 AM
 

juba said:

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI STARTING AT 7 AM TOMORROW.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 700 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB... 28.35 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE AND PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE EVENT THAT HURRICANE GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OR MISSISSIPPI COAST AS A CATEGORY 3 OR CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COUNTIES IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI HAVE EVACUATION ORDERS IN EFFECT. PLEASE FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

A POTENTIAL STORM SURGE OF 18 TO 25 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF LOCATION OF LANDFALL OF HURRICANE GUSTAV. A STORM SURGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ACROSS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BY MID MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND TO MANY AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE RIVER PARISHES.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AROUND 1030 AM CDT.
August 31, 2008 7:56 AM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Scary stuff.  I'm praying - not just for LA but for the whole gulf coast.  It just looks huge - an even if it isn't a strong hurricane, how strong does it really have to be when it's that big to cause massive desruction.  I heard on the radio that they've just about finished the Mihalia Jackson Theatre in New Orleans, and here comes Gustav.  Yea, I figure if I'd lived through Katrina, moved back and rebuilt, at the first inking that Gustav was coming my way, the moving truck would be full and I'd be out of there.

Are there places around town that are collecting things for refuges?  Food or clothing or anything?  Or is it that organized yet?  Are most of the people being evacuated here?  And if so, just out of curiosity, why?  Why not somewhere else?  Just wondered.  

It's an "exciting" storm to watch, but not exciting, you know?  It's massive, but I know that if it doesn't fall apart which it's not looking likely to do, it will cause destruction.  Hopefully, everyone wil leave.  If not, I pray for their safety.  But either way, property will be lost and damaged, even if no lives are lost.  And I wonder how many of those people who rebuilt and came back were able to find insurance?  Woud any insurance company have even sold to them?  

Everyone have a safe day today!
August 31, 2008 8:41 AM
 

bewild79 said:

Here are two other stations from LA that you can watch coverage on  wwltv.com and fox8live.com.   Fox was my fav when I lived down there.  God bless all that dont leave.......
August 31, 2008 9:15 AM
 

juba said:

The next advisory is in ten min or and hour and ten min.
August 31, 2008 9:22 AM
 

juba said:

looks like Gustav has formed a second eye thing in the darker clouds?
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm7/floater1_large_animated.html
August 31, 2008 9:24 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Gustav is having a hard time breathing.  He has lost his ULH friend.  Because of how big he as gotten, having the ULH helped him breath and sustain all that mass.

He is choking right now.  It does look like the eye is trying to reform under the deepest convection.  He has just a few more hours of the very warm water to really reform.

He did not bomb last night as I expected.  Probably due to the sheer and lack of assisted outflow.  The current sheer would begin to seriously alter a smaller storm...eg. Hanna.

Anyway you look at it now, Gustav is a huge storm now with winds extending out quite a distance.  Even as a Cat 2 coming in if that happens, he has the surge and rainfall of a bigger storms.

If he hits NOLA in the right front quad...uh oh.
August 31, 2008 10:22 AM
 

bewild79 said:

From what I have heard, they think the strengthing is happening now, making it a cat 4
August 31, 2008 12:10 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

im standing by my previous comments regarding gustav....cat 2 storm at landfall.  gustav started too far north in the caribbean to take the track hes taking.  usually, storms hook NE given the genesis and overall trajectory hes taking.  so, basically he is going against the grain, hence the ragged organization.  good news for SW LA.  the better news for NO is that the west side of the storm is where the deepest convection is...so the storm surge and overall rainfall will be lesser....lots of hype with this one...
;)
August 31, 2008 12:32 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

the nhc is wrong more often than not regarding potential strengthening...so i wouldnt say this is surprising, but they forecasted gustav to be at 145mph by now, and its stuck at 120.
August 31, 2008 12:33 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

on a separate note, they should have stuck with the initial SW trajectory of hanna, its definitely taking a sw jaunt on the vis. sat. images.
August 31, 2008 12:34 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

August 31, 2008 12:41 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

another separate note...im liking the 7 day forecast.  also, i dont think 89 is in the cards today :)
August 31, 2008 12:47 PM
 

A dogg said:

Yea,I agree with pvt. They did over-hype this storm, not saying it still wont be bad, but I think it will have a hard time staying a cat 3 till landfall. It really doesnt have that much time to strengthen, cat 5 I think is out of the question now.
August 31, 2008 12:50 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

gustav down to 115mph. mcp 960mb...like clockwork...
August 31, 2008 12:53 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

August 31, 2008 12:54 PM
 

A dogg said:

Oh yeah, I have a question. Did Gustav go throught the loop current? I would think if I did that it would have strengthened more. Was sheer maybe a problem?
August 31, 2008 12:56 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

i dont know about the third link, scott, i have a feeling it will get picked up and shunted over towards the ohio valley.  the jet is trying to get more amplified which should pick it up...it doesnt seem to handle hanna well either, although hanna is going to be a difficult one...

i do think however that gustav will make a more westerly trek just before or as it comes ashore, so i think that TX will have much if not most of the effects of the storm-especially if the convection stays on the west side.
August 31, 2008 12:59 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Wow.  Not sure this is over hyped.  It is the size and slosh of the storm that matters, not directly the windspeed.

Oh well...even if it gets down to 80MPH at landfall, the wave action will resemble a cat stronger.  I know alot of people felt much better about Katrina hitting as a Cat 3 and not a 5.  Many thought it was over hyped.

Oops.

So..if it hits at Cat 1/2, the wave surge will be significant due to the momentum and size of the wind field.

Its not about the wind...

I pray this thing just dies in its track.  Its hard to tell what is going to happen, but I would rather not even care about it.  

Give me a strong Verde storm that recurves around Bermuda...that is my idea of fun.

August 31, 2008 1:08 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

I don't think the vorticity wants to go to Ohio.  This is based on some LRC thoughts.  The remnants of moisture may end up there via frontal passage, but I think the vorticity wants to go almost due north if it could...or since it can't, stall out.

Gus has been east of progs nearly the whole time.  I am not buying the surface ridge steering as strong the progs think.  

We will see...tropics have been anything but predictable this summer...
August 31, 2008 1:11 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

adogg, yes it did clip the fabled loop current...however, sheer was a minor problem-so was cuba.  just like storms we see here, tropical systems have life cycles as well...whenever storms bottom out their central pressure, they have likely surpassed their half life.

those wave heights are impressive scott, however a regular old tstorm can create seas of 15' in the gulf...its like a big bathtub with all the land surrounding it.  35 isnt necessarily out of sight considering the storm at one point had 150mph winds.  check out this link regarding hurricane ivan and his 50+ foot waves:

http://www.weather.gov/pa/fstories/2004/1004/fs13oct2004a.php
August 31, 2008 1:15 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Gustav looks like it's having some major problems right now. It looks like it's getting sheared by something. with this happening and a strong continuing weakening trend to folks need to worry as much as they did before, because intellicast.com has landfall at 135 mph and I just don't buy it.
August 31, 2008 1:39 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

yeah, i wasnt saying its over hyped.  not after what happened with katrina do i think its possible to overhype storms, but i do think that this storms bark has been pretty intimidating, but the bite here....? hopefully i am right about that, the N gulf doesnt really need the rain, so nothing beneficial comes from this.  the storm has almost completely lost its eye...it shifted pretty far east in the storm itself.  maybe it well redevelop further west in the convection.

the vort may remain, but i think it will move NE with time.  i think the lrc lost its influence nearly a month ago.
August 31, 2008 1:42 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

pvt, I am referencing the new LRC....  ;-)

---------------

Scott,

It is going to be fascinating to watch Gustav, which seems to be strengthening right now.  How will the remnants of Gustav interact with the front and the northern branch wave?  We should have a better handle by tonight.

 

Gary

August 31, 2008 2:51 PM
 

dougbce said:

If my math is correct, with Gustav speeding up to nearly 17mph and 359 miles off the coast of New Orleans, that would put landfall at just over 21 hours if it maintains current speed.  

Is the fact that it's moving much faster than previously actually a good thing since it's not spending nearly as long over the warm water of the gulf?
August 31, 2008 3:22 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I am telling you what...this is sad.  I am having flashbacks of 3 years ago and I am very scared of what could happen to the people that I know that stayed.  I am just glad we moved from there....
August 31, 2008 3:24 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Pressure is dropping again..it is getting reorganized.   Beware.

I want to see Gustav merge right into the northern wave at about this longitude...LOL..but you already know that.

I am not buying the western solution..and think it could stall out with the trough...it just shouldn't want to go with it.  I bet it does a peek a boo and ducks the trough and just hangs out for the next wave...

I could be wrong...none of these tropical storms have been predictable.  The GFS does not want to move it...LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_138.shtml

**************

Scott,

I'll put out a new blog between 4:30 & 5 p.m.  The rainfall graphic I show during the newscasts has NOLA about in the bullseye for heavy rain.

Jeremy

August 31, 2008 3:32 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Scott,
I dont want to hear that the pressure is dropping....this is going to be terrible for them.
August 31, 2008 3:39 PM
 

dougbce said:

pressure on the 4PM update is now 957.

Still at 115 MPH and now moving 18 MPH
August 31, 2008 3:50 PM
 

dougbce said:

with the new update it now lists it as 309 miles from New Orleans which is well ahead what had been anticipated.  With Gustav at 18 MPH that knocks landfall all the way down to just over 17 hours.  9 AM Monday morning!

************

I think it may slow a little before reaching land.  Still around noon on Monday or late morning.

Jeremy

August 31, 2008 4:05 PM
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