Good morning bloggers,
We are due for a wet September. More on this below!
The remnants of Hurricane Gustav are now spinning near the Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana line. The hurricane weakened to a tropical storm, then it weakened to a tropical depression, and now it is just a tropical disturbance and drifting north northwest. Look below at the 6 AM surface map, and the satellite picture taken at 10 AM this morning:
Gustav is now showing up on our surface map. And, there is a cold front moving our way. A lot is going in as fall approaches. We may gut thrust into a fall atmosphere on Wednesday with the combination of the tropical system absorbing the cold front into the circulation and spinning some of the cooler air into the rain. Thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves slowly through later today and tonight. A band of very heavy rain may form and begin to look like a band around Gustav as it bends into the remnants tonight. But, picking out the spot where this band will be located is going to have to wait until sometime this evening as we watch it form. Then, the main circulation of Gustav will work its way slowly across Missouri. As you can see below, Kansas City is right on the edge of this major rain event:
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are likely from Arkansas into southern Missouri. There is slight western trend of the rainfall shield forecast by the last few GFS runs. But, as we have seen with snowstorms, a slight westward trend and we will get a lot of rain. A slight eastward shift and we could be left dry in many spots while the rest of Missouri gets the deluge of rain. We will be tracking the trend and these developments today and tonight on NBC Action News.
September should be one of the wettest months. September rivals the wettest time of the year in May and June with Kansas City averaging 4.64" of rain during the month. But, Mother Nature has not been very kind the past five Septembers:
September rainfall (Average: 4.64")
- 2003: 2.61"
- 2004: 3.48"
- 2005: 3.61"
- 2006: 2.22"
- 2007: 2.47"
We are due for a wet September and the entire average is likely going to fall somewhere just south and east of us within the next two days. There are other chances showing up, including some stronger fall cold fronts in the next two weeks.
Before we get colder, it is time to announce the winner of our summer contest. We had only eleven 90 degree days between July 16th and August 31st. Two bloggers correctly predicted eleven with the tie breaker going to Gary B. Gary predicted the hottest temperature to be 99, and Jenn6428 predicted 101. So, Congratulations to Gary B who wins the passes to Snow Creek, our local ski area. And, thank you to everyone who participated this year.
Gary