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Thunderstorm development & Gustav

Good afternoon everyone,

The cold front continues to progress southeast with temperatures in the 60s behind it.  The front is now beginning to be affected by the circulation around Gustav, but we may end up in a zone where some very heavy rain falls later today. We will be tracking these developments on NBC Action News at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight. 

As you can see below we are now almost under the broad circulation of Gustav, which will limit the convergence on the front.  There will likely be some lifting along and north of the front through tonight so I am still expecting some nice rainfall amounts, but not for everyone. 

Gustav needs to be a bit farther west if we are to expect any significant rain Wednesday into Thursday.  If it drifts into Oklahoma from the southeast we will have much better chance, but as it stands right now the heaviest rain will likely track will east and southeast of us.

Gary

Published Tuesday, September 02, 2008 1:01 PM by glezak

Comments

 

dougbce said:

nice rain cell, thunder, lighting near 169 & Englewood.  This one cell a good shot of exceeding my entire August total of .70
September 2, 2008 1:44 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Steadily raining here near 65th and State Avenue..
yaaaaaaaay for the rain

booo on the vandal that smashed my window last night :(
September 2, 2008 1:46 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

It would be nice if south and east meant me...  :o), but I have a feeling you mean central and western missouri!! We are getting really really dry down here, the last batch just spit on me and that was about it. I am sure when fall sets in for good it will rain...one of those nice soft cool rains. I too would like to out down some yard seed but why bother just in case it all gets washed away. Have a good day everyone!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
September 2, 2008 1:49 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Yikes..5kcmartins, stay safe!! That would be scary and man would I be mad. I am ticked about the vandals who smashed up my mailbox...can not imagine how mad I would be if it was a window. Be careful!!
Monica
September 2, 2008 1:50 PM
 

twinkiekid said:

Gary,

Is that a dryline developing ahead of the front or an outerband "forming" from Gustav?
September 2, 2008 1:56 PM
 

opeterson said:

.47 inches here at 64th & I-29 in the past 15-20 minute, still pouring.
September 2, 2008 1:58 PM
 

Tony Baker said:

2 Miles sought of Reno: Brief, but very heavy rainfall. No wind. Huge drops. Some lighting. 52" so far. More on the way.
September 2, 2008 1:59 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Thanks Monica.
Good thing it's alarm went off, or I may have lost the whole car.  Yes my hubby & I are both mad, but nothing we can really do about it.  I'm just glad they didnt' get the car.  I needed a new door anyhow.
Stacy
September 2, 2008 2:01 PM
 

dougbce said:

.84 already near 169 & Englewood!

opeterson I'm surprised you don't have more as close as we are, but I guess that's just showing us how hit and miss mother nature can be.
September 2, 2008 2:02 PM
 

opeterson said:

up to .75 now.
September 2, 2008 2:03 PM
 

opeterson said:

.83 and still coming down
September 2, 2008 2:05 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

It is fun watching the radar bloom W & NW of KC.
Audra
September 2, 2008 2:17 PM
 

opeterson said:

1.26 and no signs of letting up.  My backyard is a pond.
September 2, 2008 2:20 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Well watching the Topeka Doppler I would not be surprised if we got our usual split in the weather. So I will go out on a limb and guess that by looking at the radar now, that the northland will get more rain than SW of KC (Lee's Summit, Grandview, etc.). I am probably completely wrong, but that is what I will guess for now. (notice lots of outs if I am completely wrong?)
Audra
September 2, 2008 2:24 PM
 

opeterson said:

1.97" with thunder.
September 2, 2008 2:28 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

OK these showers need to start popping up just a little bit farther south and east and I will be a happy lady!! :)  Dea
September 2, 2008 2:28 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

well for round one  .52inches

65th & State Ave
September 2, 2008 2:39 PM
 

PlatteCityMatt said:

It's finally our turn. Ill give a total later.
September 2, 2008 2:40 PM
 

stormlover said:

Audra, some parts of the northland but here in Liberty no rain...not even sprinkles...
September 2, 2008 2:40 PM
 

opeterson said:

2.56" and now the sun is coming out.
September 2, 2008 2:44 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Boy, this pre-frontal rain sure popped up ahead of most forecasts...hoping for a good soaking at home, as I know we could use it.
September 2, 2008 3:26 PM
 

GaryB said:

According to Gary, I'm  the winner of the summer KSHB temperature forecast and I've won the Snow Creek tickets.  My 28 year old daughter is in need of a liver transplant and we have several ongoing fundraising events.  She has insurance, but insurance never covers complications, etc.  The Snow Creek tickets will be raffled off at a fundraiser planned for October 25th at the Gladstone Community Center.

------

Gary,

Congratulations, and I will have your prize ready for you soon.  It is great that you are using it for the fundraiser.  Good luck to you and your daughter.

Gary

September 2, 2008 3:27 PM
 

Luthur said:

GaryB -

Good luck with your fundraising and best wishes to your daughter and family.

--

We had a good 'ol fashioned gully washer here in SE Leavenworth County.  Of course, the first significant rain we've had in over a month and I didn't have my rain gauge up.  Took it down over the weekend to stain the deck.  And doubly of course, I can't find it now.  Anyone in the Bonner/Basehor area measure their rain yet?
September 2, 2008 3:32 PM
 

outgoing101 said:

Gary,
I am confused earlier you responded to a person on the blog saying that "The farther east the better the chance of heavy rain with Gustav.  But, today it is more the front than the tropical system." But in the later blog you say "Gustav needs to be a bit farther west if we are to expect any significant rain Wednesday into Thursday"

I am just confused were Gustav needs to be for us to get the rain, today and later this week.

Thanks
Shannon
September 2, 2008 3:35 PM
 

jrfan830 said:

Here in Leavenworth we've already had 2.08 inches and still raining.
September 2, 2008 3:40 PM
 

juba said:

Here is the link to the simulation POV of Wof;s ride for 09, Prowler! http://prowler.worldsoffun.com/public/ride/video.cfm


I'd like some rain, but no 60's! Rain to end everybody's allergies so I don't have to listen to them!!!!
September 2, 2008 3:40 PM
 

RickMckc said:

I also am curious as to the triggering mechanism for today's torrential rainfall up here in the Northland. Looking at the regional radar, the main action from Gustav appears to still be way south in Southern MO. The storms we had formed (and re-fromed) on a line right over us and moved north.

Any speculation as to the cause?
September 2, 2008 3:41 PM
 

radman22 said:

Looking at the radar and the way the storms are rotating around, it would seem Gustav is already having an impact on these current storms.   They are not moving the way one would expect with just a cold front.      Should be a fun 24-48hrs to watch.  
September 2, 2008 3:45 PM
 

radman22 said:

Good Luck to your daughter GaryB.   My mom got a kidney transplant May of 2007 and has been doing great.    That call will come and you will rush to the hospital.   I know with a kidney transplant you can get on medicare to help with the cost of the expensive medicine after the transplant.    

September 2, 2008 3:51 PM
 

juba said:

Just has a nice shower, giagantic drops, maye quarter size! Looked like liquafied hail.
September 2, 2008 4:16 PM
 

GaryB said:

Thanks Radman and Luther.  Your thoughts are certainly appreciated.  Radman, Heather has a full time job and apparently can't get Medicare because of that.   This isn't the place to discuss this, but it's sad when the system works against those who are trying.  Congrats to your mom!!!!!  
September 2, 2008 4:23 PM
 

momof3 said:

Congratulations Gary B. on your win!  I hope everything goes well with your daughter.  The temp. says 74 with rain.  I hope that gets here soon as it is still stinking hot outside and we sure need the rain!
September 2, 2008 4:28 PM
 

Trentonite said:

Did Scott exhaust himself with Gustav so much he couldn't lurk here today?  I figured we'd see a post from him similar to that of Notes' talking about whether or not we are "due" for a wet September....
September 2, 2008 4:30 PM
 

jon64506 said:

inch and a quarter in about 45 minutes in st jo all quiet at present
September 2, 2008 4:34 PM
 

LibertyB said:

Still dry in Liberty. I'm sure we wont get a drop as usual.

We look to be on the right side of the approaching Gustav, will we have tornado threats? I see the tornado warnings and watches associated with this monster right now.
September 2, 2008 4:37 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

I try not to be too predictable, though I did disagree..but Notes handled it.  

I do think it will be wet and cool, but not because we are "due".  Statistically, that doesn't jive for me.

;-)

Nevermind Gustav..we got Hannah, Ike, and Josephine coming...and maybe another in a few days as it rolls off Africa.

Its gonna get VERY BUSY.  
September 2, 2008 4:42 PM
 

angvic00 said:

Gary,

I have a weather related question to ask you.   Perhaps you or a blogger could help me.  My daughter is working on a school project and she needs to know what the exact temperature was each day of the Olympics in Beijing---the high and low (August 8th - August 24th).  We have tried searching the internet but can't seem to find the specifics.  Maybe someone has a link to this information???

Thanks!
September 2, 2008 4:44 PM
 

Brent said:

its dry here....
September 2, 2008 4:47 PM
 

Kimberly said:

I am starting to hear some distant thunder rumbles at 101st and Lamar.
September 2, 2008 4:54 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Angivic00
I just checked on wunderground.com.  They have what you are looking for.  In search put China, then you can get to Bejing then.. and then look for the History/climate section where you can find the dates you need.

Good luck to ya.. have a great evening
Stacy
September 2, 2008 4:55 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

angvic00,

This link goes to Weatherunderground.com
If you scroll down a little bit, on the left side underneath the current conditions, you will see something that says "History & Almanac." I think this is what you are looking for.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/54511.html#History

Hope this helps,
David
September 2, 2008 4:58 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

September 2, 2008 4:58 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

5kckmartins.

Guess we think alike! LOL
Must not have refreshed enough. Oh well, now you got it twice!

David
September 2, 2008 4:59 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Ahhh! Now Scott got it too!

:)
September 2, 2008 5:00 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I can hear some thunder here in Lee's Summit, not far from Blue Springs.
Audra
September 2, 2008 5:15 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

Yeah it's finally raining here at 68th Terr. and Oak!!  Just a nice steady rain with some rumbles of thunder!  I am a happy lady!!  Dea
September 2, 2008 5:20 PM
 

dougbce said:

.94 so far near 169 & Englewood.

I would like to see someone with a total around Metro North.  It came down in buckets when I went on my little road trip this afternoon.

Brocksmama, did you miss out on the almost 1 inch earlier.  I got a good dousing at the house and it had to be an inch plus near Metro North and you're right in the middle.
September 2, 2008 5:54 PM
 

juba said:

I see a big cloud (westish) that fades away with the rain streeks, I used to think this was a wall cloud when I was little.
September 2, 2008 6:06 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

Latest NAM/GFS looks like it is pushing the precip a little more west then earlier runs..  OR is it just my wishfull thinking?
September 2, 2008 6:16 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

So what did Gary say on the 6 pm newscast regarding the rain in the KC area? Are we done for the night?
September 2, 2008 6:30 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Around 4:30 I Was in My Backyard and It Rained in the Neighbors Backyard The whole time but not Mine :(. It was cool but I didnt recieve rain from there.
September 2, 2008 6:32 PM
 

DPannell said:

Wow, incredible downpours here, 1.47"!!!  Brief, but very heavy.  Ok, that's enough, thanks, no more please =)
--deb
September 2, 2008 6:44 PM
 

DPannell said:

oops that was in Paola
September 2, 2008 6:44 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Rain total so far: zero! It look's like it has been staying to the northwest of Kingsville....hope it moves this direction. :(
September 2, 2008 7:18 PM
 

MCIRamp said:

Hey Gary,

It looks like you and Murph hit it right on the nose today!  I left my job in OPKS around 1430, the temp was mid 90s and drove home to the northland where the temp was mid 70s.  There was a definite cut-off point where the rain started, similar to Jeremy Nelson's "one-foot in-the-snow-and one-not" episode on "Today" a few years back.  It was that dramatic!  You could see the wall of rain approaching I29 from 635.  It appeared that most of the rain stayed north of I35 and was along and behind the front.  Murph was big on rain N and NW.  Excellent call the both of you!

TW
September 2, 2008 7:33 PM
 

stormlover said:

we haven't had more than a few drops.  I tried to help it along...we ate dinner outside & finished our nightly bike ride...still nothing...maybe I need to set up the tent & wash the car so we can get some rain...this is getting ridiculous.  It's all around us but we can't get any!!
September 2, 2008 7:34 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Poured in Lee's Summit.
September 2, 2008 7:38 PM
 

farmgirl said:

1.1 inches in La Cygne. And it came down in buckets. Got this total in 25 minutes. Of course when I was out in the barn and couldn't get back to the house to watch Gary. But it wouldn't have mattered, the satilite went out.

So can someone tell me what Gary said about the predicated rain fall total?
September 2, 2008 7:42 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Nothing but a few raindrops off 124th and state line on the Kansas side so far...
September 2, 2008 7:45 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

HPC guidance on Gustav...from 4PM.

THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 33.0N 93.9W
12HR VT 03/0600Z 33.4N 94.1W
24HR VT 03/1800Z 33.8N 94.0W
36HR VT 04/0600Z 34.7N 93.3W
48HR VT 04/1800Z 36.8N 92.2W
72HR VT 05/1800Z DISSIPATED


Doesn't look like this front is just going to swoop it away.  Looking at the models, it seems it gets left behind in the lower levels.  The upper air shears off and dissipates into the northern flow...
September 2, 2008 7:53 PM
 

Luthur said:

I spoke with the neighbor and she said, and I quote, "we got .81 inches."  How she got the hundreth of an inch in SE Lev. Co. I did not ask.
September 2, 2008 7:57 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

KCWXguy, it is funny that it poured by you. By me, which is near the corner of the 7 and Colbern we haven't had any rain yet today. Thunder, yes, rain, no.
Audra in Lee's Summit
September 2, 2008 8:05 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

One last thought...

The HWRF is quite impressed with Ike.  Intensities can and probably will change, but it brings Ike into the Bahamas as a Cat 5.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008090218-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If you look at the last two frames of the animation, while Hanna moves towards SC, it is swept out by the trough in the eastern CONUS.

As Ike approaches behind it, it seems to miss the trough and catch the steering flow of the A/B high on the south and pushes it west..perhaps back into the Gulf.  

Way too far away to tell..but with the distraction of Hannah soon, don't forget about Ike...
September 2, 2008 8:07 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Audra, it went NW of you.  You must be by the gas station.  I go out that way often to the lake.

I am in the western part of LS...we caught a quick quarter inch or so.
September 2, 2008 8:10 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Pouring again in La Cygne.
September 2, 2008 8:18 PM
 

mdg2fast4u said:

Audra I live in Lee's Summit too near 291 and 150. We had no rain but lots of thunder and lightening.
September 2, 2008 8:24 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

thanks TW!

...a blind squirrel will find a nut eventually ;)
September 2, 2008 8:38 PM
 

angvic00 said:

To everyone who gave me the Beijing, China weather links/information...a big Thank You!  Now she can finish her homework:)
September 2, 2008 8:43 PM
 

Major Dryslot said:

I'd like to pat myself on the back for calling this one. As of 8:45pm, no rain here near the Oak Park Mall.

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/09/02/3367444.aspx#comments  

Major Dryslot said:
I say that the cold front dropping south and the remains of Gustav moving north will cancel each other out, leaving us high and dry.
September 2, 2008 9:28 AM
September 2, 2008 8:44 PM
 

irishrover said:

I have .47 in my rain gauge in LS near John Knox..... It was interesting as I drove down 3 rd street and watched the rain approach from the east.  It came straight toward me!  Not used to seeing it come that way.  
September 2, 2008 8:53 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

its not over until its over maj. dryslot
September 2, 2008 8:53 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Major - but there were several places in the metro with over an inch of rain today?

Was your forecast for the Oak Park Mall?  If so, great forecast this morning for this evening!

Based on regional composites, it appears the convection along the frontal boundary is being pushed back a hair by Gustav.  

Looks like more might be filling in....

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_20km_oper/.//+sa5_ppt+am+03
September 2, 2008 9:03 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

scott, the wrf on ike you posted looks like a FLA track to me...think ERIN(1995) or frances(2004) or (gulp) hurricane donna(1960)

by the way...you were talking about the most interesting storms you studied...i think you mentioned ivan as your favorite...i wanted to share my second favorite storm ever with you...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0c/Gordon_1994_track.png

not only did i get hit twice by this hurricane...but while walking to school(crazy, i know) on the first go around i was carrying one of those over sized umbrellas and i was literally scooped up and carried about 5 feet...i was 11 at the time.
September 2, 2008 9:21 PM
 

SmithvilleWest said:

.63 inches of rain here this afternoon near Smithville.  
September 2, 2008 9:22 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

KCWXguy et all, I am closer to Missouri town than the gas station. I am also a little over a mile from Lake Jacomo.
Audra in Lee's Summit
September 2, 2008 9:34 PM
 

C in Raymore said:

mdg2fast4u- i am not too far from where you are and we got rain. 150 and Horridge. crazy it was so sporadic tonight.

major- good job for forecasting your house. we got rain so it wasn't good for my house. i guess your house is all that matters for you. I thought the affects of gustav is suppose to be the next two days. Do you think we wont get any rain from that. I sure hope my house gets a little more but not a deluge.
September 2, 2008 9:56 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

Are we expecting more development for north central missouri Gary? i just checked the forecast and it still says showers and  t-storms likely for chillicothe at a 60% chance for tonight. just wondering.
September 2, 2008 10:13 PM
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