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So i'm guessing the new NAM came out and your buying right into that.  It has had a significant westerly bias with this system, and at one point today was nearly 100 miles off target from the current position of Gustav.  I'd rather wait for new data to see if anything else corresponds with the NAM.

Gary, it is my dream to see a snowstorm of that magnitude to hit Kansas City this winter.  Measuring snow by the feet and not inches Colorado style!!

Oh Gary, such a tease...

snow would be awesome.. can't wait.  The first snowfall of winter is as exciting as the first flowers of spring.

Gary, can we have another contest for the first snow...or to make it more of a challenge the first inch of snow.  Some more snow creek passes to celebrate the first snow would be a great lil treat to whoever picked it.  I would even advertise it on the air once you wrap things up in your segment to get even more bloggers.

Snowfall of this would freakin Awesome. I cant wait for the Bitter coldness of winter, Snowy KC is this year, Some 1 gonna get over 40 inches, And its gonna be Somewhere in the metro. WHOS IS GONNA BE

I am going to go ahead and throw out what im thinking.  Early in the fourth week of October.


Also, 5 inches Gary? That would be really fun to see...IF Gustav comes to visit us.

Billy coming on strong...wow.  LOL.  I tend to agree.  Watching the sat images [why trust a model when the storm is right there to track on radar/sat?], the frontal boundary has nearly stalled or been pushed back, but Gustav hasn't moved much either.

I think Gus will shear out...I don't see it getting much further west at all..in fact, in the last 6 hrs, it has not moved west at all...due north, which is a bit right of guidance.

The NAM will miss this one again to the left.  The heavy rain will stay to the south and east.

Gus is moving very slowly northward.  About 5mph.  About as fast as walking speed.  I don't see any strong movement at all with Gus.  

The NAM is all wet as usual.

PVT, I think from your last post, the closest path to Ike IMO is Donna..but, Donna was a bit further south moving more WNW into the Bahamas.

Ike will be nearly due west and I think this interaction with the ridge will push it more west based on trajectory than Donna.

I think it will clip the southern end of Florida..but may go into the Gulf...more similar to a K storm we are all familiar with in 2005 based on my thoughts of the path- not implied impact.

Who knows..it is too far out to tell..but looking at the upper levels, seems atleast plausible at this point...dunno.

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Scott,

I love it.  I am not with you, as when it comes to precipitation forecasts I have seen you be way too conservative in the past.  It isn't what happens to Gus right now, it is the move it makes in the morning in response to wave moving in across the intermountain west.  Don't count it out yet?

Gary

KansasPatriot,

If you had watched in years past, there is always a contest to predict the first one inch of snow. And often, the prize is much better than tickets to snow creek.

Oh..and if this was snow fall..it wouldn't be maxing out at 10 inches of liquid, it would be one inch of precip adjusted for seasonal constraints..

So, then in the TX/OK area, it would fall as rain, the Ozarks might catch some sleet/ice, and we would have a dusting at best behind the frontal zone in very cold, but dry air.

Sound familiar to the prior year?  Besides, there wouldn't be any hope to catching a comma head with this storm and deformation zones...it would be straight frontal for this area with some overunning potential.

Yawn.

It wouldn't be that exciting at all...LOL

How much rain equals one inch of snow? I never figured out how they measure that.

I am fuming MAD!! My new roof is leaking!!!! Spent well over $10,000 for a new roof. Can't find quality work any where any longer. Still waiting for the basement to be fixed and the old barn too. I'm about at my wits end.

So Gary, how much more rain tonight for the La Cygne area? I'm scared to death of the 5 inches you are predicting. Will that fall throughout the day tomorrow or tomorrow night?

The talk of wanting/calling for an October snow reminds me of a dream I had just a couple of weeks ago.  I was at work and things looked pretty realistic (as opposed to a warped version like dreams normally have) and when looking out of the window it was all white on the ground.  No blades of grass sticking up and the road was completely covered.  I don't have an exact date but I do recall it being prior to Halloween and I want to say mid-October.

I sure wouldn't mind if this dream becomes a reality.  I wonder, although it's still probably too far away, if there are any trends to suggest if this could happen this year or not.

Today at about 2:45 p.m the sky UNLOADED here in St. Joe, I went in to work at 2, and when I was walking there it was rather calm and very humid with cumulonimbus clouds building all around and as time went on at work it got thicker/darker looking out side and then we had a textbook cloud burst, it came down so hard the visibility out the windows was comparable to a heavy snow storm. Then we had lighter rains for awhile and it stopped, now weirdly the radar is kind of playing a re-run with the structure of the newly forming showers in a similar fashion to the ones of this afternoon!

Just had a big downpour here in St. Joe!!!!

I hope the first snow is on Halloween, I could put dead snowman heas on sticks.

Well whatever rain we go it was not much. The driveway is wet outside, but more like a light morning dew type of wet. It is not wet under the trees and the puppies did not have wet feet when they came inside this morning after doing their business. I remember seeing a little lightning and a tiny bit of thunder, but I don't remember any rain. I usually hear any decent rain as the downspout for the gutters is by my window.

Farmgirl, I feel for you about your new roof leaking!! That sucks! A radio personality at the station that I listen to had the same problem with her new roof. I wonder if you guys used the same company? I really hope nothing got damaged with the rain.

Garyb, is there a fund set up to help your sister?

Audra in Lee's Summit

I saw the the darkest black woolly worm I have seen in years this morning! Just had to throw that out there this morning!