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La Cygne had 1.5 inches from 7 pm last night to 7 am this morning. All together so far 2.6 inches. Had a strong down pour around 6 pm last night.

I'll keep blowing to the east and push Gustav further away. Didn't get any sleep... had to monitor the pans in the dining room window. It was raining inside! Hubby had better call the Roofers this morning, I don't think I can remain pleasant. :(

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Good luck today!  More rain is on the way.

Gary

couple tidbits this morning...

first, its currently 57.5 degrees at the moment, it was 59.1 about 45 minutes ago.

i have a 53.5 degree dewpoint here.  

moving on, check out this link from the nws:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=eax&storyid=17781&source=0

they are ready to let summer go, so i think its appropriate we do the same...some highlights of their discussion; this summer ended up  below average temp wise at kci as well as slightly below average precip wise.  of course, since KCI is in a black hole, i am pretty sure most ended up slightly above average precip wise.  we hit 100 degrees 0 times and 90 just 14 times.  apparently, the climatological average is 33 times.  oddly enough, st. joe hit 90 more times(16) than kci did.  

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Pvt Murphy,

I may use some of your stats for the weathercasts tonight.  Thanks for the analysis.  So, do you think you will end up in the rain shield tonight?  It will be close.  I like what I see on the radar trends, but you will likely be on the edge.  I hoipe you go into it as I need a good soaking.

Gary

I feel for ya farm girl. Those major rain makers just missed me. All I got was .35 inches and you are only 12 miles away. We saw the light show and would of loved to have taken that rain off your hands, LOL!! We got our roof replaced 2 weeks ago and have not had a huge rain maker since so time will tell for me. I am sure hoping to get some more today and tonight but will take what I did get if not. Have a good day everyone. I dressed my girls in jeans today...it feels nice outside. Love it!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

Yes, a fall-like day.  Try to update us later on your rainfall totals, probably tomorrow morning after this is almost over.

Gary

I only had sprinkles on my deck this morning until we left for the bus stop...since then it's been pouring...I'm so glad for the rain but your timing is a little off Gary.  I would have liked it to keep sprinkling until I got to work then it can rip...lol  Have a great day.

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Sorry about the timing, but you should have left a few minutes earlier. :)

Gary

gary, starting yesterday, i have gotten 1.73" so far...so i cant complain about amounts here, considering that this is ks afterall and you shouldnt have to rely on tropical depressions to give you your rain here.  that being said, i am pleased with the radar trends...it looks like a nice steady rain clump(scientific i know...) is moving wnw across the city proper now...it should include most areas including us nw'rs.

despite the radar, i think your predictions are wise regarding the western half of the viewing area.  drier air is continuing to filter in here(dewpoint down to 51).  and i am not liking that wedge of super dry air that has made its way into the southern half of the city.  it looks like it is filling in from east to west, but how far west will it go?

in the end the decent precip cutoff will probably be further west than feared...maybe toward topeka or so...the layout of the precip will take on a positively sloped linear format starting in a topeka-st joe. line increasing from NW to SE.  so, i think in the end ft. lvn will have one of the smaller accums. but still respectable.  just my opinion...

i am loving these temps though!

i just took another glance at the radar, and that dry wedge i was speaking of is filling in quickly...it looks like a steadier rain is moving in...maybe another .5" for us out of the metro area to the nw.  i dont see why another 1"+ cant fall for most of the city...

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Thanks Murph,

I agree, the feared back edge is backing up farther west.  The NAM may have had the best solution and the latest model run confirms this.

Wow, 1.73" + today.  You will likely go well over 2 inches.  Not a bad start to September.

Gary

farmgirl- we have a leak somewhere too and when it rains really hard we get water pouring out of our light fixture on the kitchen ceiling!  No fun for sure.  Either I need to get a better rain gauge or we've only had .10 of an inch since last night here in the Brookside area.  Hopefully we'll get alot more!  I am absolutely giddy over these temps. today!!  The dog feels my giddiness and is bouncing off the walls as well!  Dea

In Kingsville, it was 58 - still haven't gotten a rain gauge but we gotconsiderable rain yesterday evening.  No thunder or anything - just really windy and sprinkling this morning.  A couple great big limbs came down - to add to the pile that came down Thursday!  Sorry about your leaks FarmGirl - our basement will flood if we get more than a few inches at a time! So we're holding our breath ...

;) ha ha Gary

Gary - I sure hope you guys can move some of that heavy rain to somewhere else - a few inches is fine, but not 6+!  That's basement flooding, stuff of my nightmares!  But you did do a great job on the temps!  Thanks!  Laura

FALL has arrived!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gustav and Canada has broken the hold on summer.

The excitement will soon begin as we anticipate winter and SNOWWWWW.

Gustav's center of circulation has not moved a bit since last night based on surface obs.

Looking at those same surface obs, definitely the viewing area is split.  At St. Joe, the dewpoints are at 50 degrees.  To saturate completely, I would expect temps to hover around that temp..and I don't see that.

Further south,  Olathe is at 53 degrees dewpoint...a bit more potential, but can't see a whole lot of rain to drop to near that temp...maybe.

A bit further south and east, you have Sedalia, with a 59 dewpoint..yeah, that will work..and is working right now as it is raining.

I am with pvt a bit when it comes to this dry air...it is creating a tidy little breakoff point.  Dewpoints N and W of KC are 50 degrees or less.

Tonight is the best chance of heavier rain in the metro as Gustav is pushed NE from the wave in the mountains.  

Just so tough to call this one with the very close proximity of the cold dry air and the intermountain wave movement.

I will continue to be prudent on the rain fall and think still that most of the heavier amounts are south and east.  I would not expect the two day rainfall totals to exceed 1 inch for the metro except for some of those areas that get underneath a thunderstorm, which will yield localized heavier amounts.

Other areas to the east or south east will pick up more rain.

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Scott,

So you have adjusted your rainfall way up from none to 1 inch.  Just keep looking at radar.  The center of Gustav is drifting north northwest.  If it can just get a bit farther west then we have a good chance of getting into tonights heavy rain event.  We are getting a combination of the cold front from yesterday and the interaction with Gustav.  The lower level dewpoints are a factor, but it is raining, and moderately in many areas.  This rain will likely taper off before the main thrust of Gustav moves across tonight.  There is still some question as to how far west the comma head will get tonight, but it isn't the dry air that is the major factor as we now are in Gustav's circulation.

Gary

I love this fall weather!  Just a sign that winter in just around the corner, and we will all be predicting snow here before long!  Can't wait!

Well today is nice and cool outside but has been raining all morning. Not sure as totals as I am hanging out listening to the rain with my 18 month old. Perfect lounging day to bad its also my run errands day.

It is great to finally have some rain!  AND I LOOOOVVVEEE this colder weather!  

It sure is nice to have the cooler temperatures... although I'm very glad that I pay close attention to the weather forecasts & the Weather Plus station, or I'd've been screwed today! Since I'm pregnant (less than a month to go now!), I had no pants that would fit, so had to rush out and buy some yesterday so I wouldn't freeze in my capri's today. :)

My puppy (5 1/2 month old Chocolate Lab) didn't quite know what to think this morning since it was drizzly near 87th & Antioch. I think this has been the coolest morning since we got him 3 1/2 months ago. I know we had rain, but for some reason, it didn't occur to me to check the rain gauge this morning. :( Glad for the rain, though. My yard was starting to get cracks in it, and hubby was bemoaning the fact that we hadn't run the sprinklers, but the neighbor has. Hopefully, this'll make up the difference.

scott, i already have a two day total of 1 3/4"...then again the majority of it came yesterday...only.2" today.  but still...

clearly the heavier rains will be near the coc, which is where the tropical downpours will be.

so are you coming around to the NAM for the transitional months yet, scott? that is when it is most useful(imo).  the trick is when to know to switch guidances...sometime in november...

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Murph,

Each season, as the weather pattern sets up, different models do better than in previous patterns.  So, when we get our new LRC we will have to see which model is best for the pattern we are in. 

Gary

KCWX guy - Define "south and east" please for the heavier rain!  Thanks. Laura

if you look at the tulsa radar, it would appear as if the coc is moving ever so slightly to the nnw.  it is right on the border of OK and AR.  IF it can make it another 20 miles or so west we could be talking 3-5" east of the city for areas like warrensburg, sedalia, clinton, and maybe harrisonville.

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Excellent point. Just a bit farther west on its drift before it starts turning will decide if we go into the heavier rain.  This is what we will have much more confidence in by this evening.

Gary

wow, way too much rain! As of 6:00 this morning Paola was at 2.06" but it's been raining quite a bit since then so the total will be rising throughout the day.
--deb

Hey Gary, nice rain today here in LS but I sure hate to hear about the rain in central MO.  Gma lives in Mexico MO and she has had some 44" of rain this year so far.  Just there this weekend and the crops look good but I hope it dries out so that can get them harvested.  Thanks for all your insight and knowledge.  Looking forward to your winter forecast.  

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Just a little over two months away from the winter forecast.

Gary

These cooler temps recently have got me wondering if fall will come earlier this year or at least be more pronounced than some years past. I remember some years where it seemed like we hardly had a fall. We went straight from short sleeves to winter coats. So if we get a real fall this year, I would love it!

While I love the rain, my eldest daughter hates it. Her old Mustang was fishtailing all over the road this morning. Not sure how much of that was drivers error. I called the place that specializes on cars like hers and they said to check the air pressure. I only mention this as it would not be a bad thing for all of us to do as we head into cooler, wetter weather. I guess a tire with lower air pressure can cause a car to fishtail in the rain.
Audra

One of my MS 150 teammates (also a blogger) and I had our final training ride before the big event this weekend.  Now we can say we have ridden through a hurricane!  We left the 40/Little Blue Pkwy area around 6 am and arrived in Lexington about 9....very wet and cold, but fun nonetheless!!  It really started coming down about 7:30 in Buckner and pounded us all the way to Lexington.  No rain right now here in Lexington.  

Gary:  Are we going to have good weather for the ride in Columbia this weekend?

1.25 inches in the past two days.  4 miles west of Leavenworth.  But most has been a good, slow and soaking rain.  57 degrees here at 11:30 a.m.  Wonderful wx.  MC

Pvt,

I was referencing a two day total from today into tomorrow.  Your rainfall yesterday was more directly related to the convective output from the frontal boundary and not as much directly related to Gustav.  While Gus did contribute signficantly to the PW available, the rain yesterday was not widespread.  Also, I was going more for the metro area...

That said, you asked about the NAM.  I have had a bad experience with the NAM.  Actually..several.  At best, I give it a glance prior to the GFS output, but generally only give it a glance.  I prefer the SREF and RUC for shorter range and prefer the GFS and Euro for long range.

To provide a sensory understanding of my distaste of the NAM, it would be similar to walking into prom with your best tux and having everyone laugh due to the trailing toilet paper on your shoe.

I really don't like the NAM...LOL.  Even with the biases of the other models, atleast the biases are consistent.  The NAM is so flaky [IMO] at different times of year for different biases, it is very difficult to put much individual stock into it.

I don't discount it all together, but do not weigh it as strongly as other models and sources of data.  I can't count how many times it has failed initializing position and intensity of waves dropping in over the Rockies.  

One product I do like to use is the experimental SREF Plume product.  It is a composite that does include the NAM, but several other models as well..and even skewed by that NAM data, it gives a total output of the storm for the metro at about 1.8 inches...with most of that coming overnight tonight as Gus ejects into the frontal boundary.

I am going to hold tight to about an inch.  Me thinks that Gus will have more of a NE movement than N and we will not see the big totals.

Laura, when I say south and east, I am going with this...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif

And not the latest NAM run.  

Gary, one thing of note...as we both have been watching the path of Gus for LRC reasons, I am very excited to see what is happening.  The path of Gus takes it into Wisconsin.  Watching the vorticity, I am seeing much of the weakening of these waves occuring on the upslope from eastern Kansas into Northern Illinois.

Not just this wave, but the last few.  This would [IMO] substantiate where I believe the next longwave trough to be...from basically the eastern borders of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma down to TX.

This is where I see the longwave trough axis being for the new LRC.  I am pretty sure, but can be swayed if something dramatic happens...October as you think..so we will see.

I also see the longwave ridge axis as a line of about 60 degrees to the SE bisecting NE Pennsylvania.  This is what is contributing to a blocking pattern, the trough axis mentioned above and consequently some of the steering mechinisms we are seeing with these tropical cyclones and how they are dancing around south of Florida.

Should this pattern be as I see it, this is the first step in determining the next LRC.  Longwaves are easiest to see first, then the pattern, then the cycle.

I think this is the first part of the new LRC.  If this holds true, then I expect we will see a cooler Fall, cold winter, and very active Spring.  As far as precip...

I go with this thinking.  Last LRC, we were on the left side of the trough axis...thus, we were catching storms as they were strengthening, but not mature.  Most of the precip occured more SE as remembered in the icestorms and precip amounts to our SE.

This was due to the trough axis near the Mississippi River.  If indeed it has moved westard as I believe, I would think the axis of moisture would move with it.

If cold and having precip, perhaps this will be a wet/snowy/wet fall-winter-spring respectively.

As it relates to the pattern, I am tracking both at the surface and upper levels.  I won't go into much detail for the surface here, but think at the upper levels, I am looking for a strong pacific wave followed by something similar to the cutoff ULL we had last month.

Could this...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20080806.html

Be this?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_150l.gif

I am looking at the wave in the northern stream near the great lakes, the ULL in far eastern Canada, the general negative tilt of the flow from north central Canada down into the CONUS, the ridging forming in the WPAC and the strong Aleutian low.

The strong Aleutian low in August dropped down, and cutoff due to strong blocking from the ULL NE of the Great Lakes.  This happened about a week later.

In looking at the 384 hr view, it does appear that the strong Aleutian low is setting up and quite a bit of troughiness is forming NE of the Great Lakes..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_384l.gif

Being so far out, I don't expect the GFS to really have a handle on this yet.  And this may not indeed be the pattern yet, but something I will watch closely.

I feel much stronger about the longwave than the pattern at this point as it is still very early [or impossible based on your thoughts].  We will have to keep watching.

If indeed there is this potential of this cycle as I am wondering, then the cycle may be quite a bit shorter this year..maybe close to 40 days.  And if we continue to see this large cutoff or wave drop/dig in from the NW, it is quite possible we will have another LRC cycle defined by "the storm".

Just some random thoughts..back to regularly scheduled programming...

;-)

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Scott,

When are you getting this entry published....LOL.  I still strongly believe that the pattern now is directly related to the pattern of last year.  And, the new pattern won't setup for another few weeks.

So, your observations are nice, but I don't believe it even begins for another four to five weeks.  I can't wait for the new pattern to set up. 

Gary

Is it just my wishful thinking or is Gus moving a little bit to the East? So far La Cygne has got an additional 1/2 inch of rain since this morning.

Roofers came and "fixed" the new roof. I hope it is done correctly this time. :)

could this be a major player in the upcoming months? :

http://www.livescience.com/environment/050815_volcano_different.html

we reside well north of 30*N, with the eruption of kasatochi already affecting us directly...could we see a noticeable effect on our mean temperatures over the next several months?

those extra red sunsets and sunrises are caused by particles in the air from the volcano that are reflecting the suns light(and therefore heat) back to space.  so the earth(atleast north america) is already getting less heat from the sun than its supposed to right now...couple that with a particularly weak sunspot cycle and the upcoming change in seasons...it could get interesting the next few months, huh?

interesting thoughts scott...we will see i suppose.  it is a little early to know for sure.

this link shows that there could be more eruptions in the future:

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/

wow, does this ever look like a great night to have a ticket for the Royals game!  ugghhh!

Well here in St. Joe while it has been light, we have been getting light rain on and off for a while now with a very cool breeze, it has been an AWESOME day today!!

"When are you getting this entry published....LOL."  

It is in peer review with the AMS...LOL

"I still strongly believe that the pattern now is directly related to the pattern of last year.  And, the new pattern won't setup for another few weeks."

We know you believe this Gary, but why?

right now it has actually picked up a bit even!

Wow Scott...that has to be your longest entry yet. It was a great read with a lot of stuff to look at, PvtMurphy's stuff is good to read also, thanks!! It is looking like more rain is coming my way.....nice and steady most of the night. Not necessarily a lot of rain but it will be one of those slow, drizzly and soft rains that is really good for your yard and flowers. I like that!!!!! I am loving having my windows open.
Monica

Weatherteam, how much rain could we see in drexel?

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Anywhere from 1 to 2.5 inches.

Gary

Monica..ya know how sometimes get on a roll with something?  That is kinda how my last entry unfolded.

I see lots of radar echos, but looking at the 1 hour storm totals for precip is dismal.  The rain that is falling is very light.

For grins, I checked on the south side of the city to see how rain totals were going...

.12 inches at Olathe.  In looking at the storm total radar estimates...pretty hit and miss in the region, with those missing not having much at all thus far.

I am happy I got some in Lee's Summit yesterday...and more happy to have had the opportunity and forethought to mow and put down fertilizer prior to this soaking rain.

My lawn thanks me.

I look forward to more rain this evening as Gus moves northeastward...that will be the topper for the grass.

Hey Gary or kcwxguy,
When I "measure" my rain fall I don't use an official rain gauge. I use a 5 gallon bucket, I put it in the middle of my deck where nothing can blow into it. When it is done raining I use one of my quilting rulers to measure the rain. So is this an ok to measure the rain, or should I go out and buy an official rain gauge?
Audra

I like your way to measure Audra!  Seems pretty official to me - something like they might have used in the "olden days" before store-bought gauges!  

I would venture to guess in a rough form that is more than adequate to measure rain in a general way.

For a bit more precision, I would recommend a rain gauge.  Rain gauges are not expensive, and would provide better readings.

Wow..the rain is coming down at a moderate pace and has been for awhile. Maybe I will get more than just an inch of out this today. :o) How is your roof farmgirl??
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

So far my rain gauge is saying .3 inches since last night- to me that doesn't seem like enough.  I'm at 68th Terr. and Oak in the Brookside area.  Dea

Some key thoughts out of the NWS Area Discussion

"MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ON THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WITH RAPID PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOPING BY 03Z...SHIFTING THE TRACK OF GUSTAV SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO
THE EAST THAN NORTH AND ALSO SPEEDING UP THE TIMING OF ITS EXIT.
THIS BEING SAID EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO INCREASE IN
SIZE AND INTENSITY AFTER 03Z AS LARGE DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETICAL BANDOF PRECIP ROTATES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI"

Eastward trend more than nortward.

"STILL EXPECTING A BROAD AREA OF RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER TO KIRKSVILLE. TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE...A SHARP DELINEATION OF PRECIP COULD EXIST DUE TO
THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH. ONGOING QPF
FORECAST MAY BE A BIT BROAD WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTED TOTALS...AND
WESTERN EDGE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TRIMMED BACK SOME."

Heavy rainfall more to the east and southeast.  QPF overplaying this storm for areas west [including the metro].

Rainfall rates in the area have not been to impressive.  I hope for some rain tonight to even get to a 2 day total of an inch.

KOJC [Olathe] is at .17 in and KMCI [KCI] is at .35

Need to do some work to get to an inch...

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Scott,

The rainfall amounts are adding up, but the western edge of the comma head is going to be fun to watch set up. It is likely going to go well over an inch at your house.

Gary

Steadier bands are moving in now, and I expect 0.5-1" will be easily doable for all of the 435 loop.

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Rdub,

This is extremely conservative.  I think the rainfall rates will be .25 to .5" per hour in some of the heavier bands, perhaps more. And, we have 12 more hours of rain. So add it up.  We should get 1 to 2 inches of rain.

Gary

It is nice to know I am doing a decent job of measureing the rain. I forgot to put a bucket out for this rain event. Also, I know that rain gauges don't cost a lot, I just have not bought one. There is also the issue of finding the perfect place to put the rain gauge where it is not influenced by the house, pergola, etc. The 5 gallon bucket is nice because I can put it on a table in the middle of my uncovered deck. My deck is huge (about 1000 sq feet) with about half of that covered with a pergola (the half closest to the house). Quilting rulers are pretty accurate and I always know where mine are. I also use my rulers to measure the snow fall on top of the outside tables in the winter(I do use them for their intended purposes too). I will have to bite the bullet and just get an official rain gauge one of these days though..
Audra

I have gotten .40 today here in SE lee's summit

3/4 of an inch total in Liberty...yeah

I suspect most of you snow and cold lovers would be happier living in Extreme Far Northern Canada.

You be in Utopia

Nice break from Monday though. When I toiled out in the heat and humidity tearing out all the old fencing for the new one going in this weekend.

http://bottomlinecom.com/currentnews/kshbwinskabhonors.html

Congrats guys! You deserve it. I know, way off the weather.

0.90 inches so far today here in Marceline....It was pouring from about 9:00 to 10:00 this morning.

Alex

My rain gauge had .50 last night and another 1.0 so far today at my house in Kingsville. Hopefully it won't rain next weekend (12/13) for our last camping trip down near Joplin. We needed the rain, but the timing may be a little off.

fyi everyone - the Royals game has been canceled - I found out at the ticket booth, so it's a double header tomorrow.

La Cygne is over an inch now.

And of course the roof is still not fixed right. Roofers came out this afternoon and fixed one leak and caused another!!! GRRRRRR.

Good Evening Gary, We just got another pekingese puppy and it's Hard to potty train him in this type of weather. it's almost brutal to go outside today be nice when those 70s and 80s return. How are Stormy and Breeze doing?

Awww, Hail I love puppies. Yes it can be a challenge to get the little ones to do their business when it's windy and raining.

I have 4 dogs. 1 inside and 3 big outside dogs. Of course the big dogs are in their crates right now... too cold and wet outside. :) Guess we a getting a reminder of colder weather today.

I feel for you farmgirl!
My dogs just showed me how wet it is outside by sharing the water from their coats with me, lucky me!
Audra

Just a 1/2" here in Easton, MO

Jennifer

Can anyone else get weather underground maps to load?