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1.8" overnight    3.2" storm total   323rd & Hwy 7    Garden City-Creighton

"Gustav will be exiting the area"

Good. This kind of weather depresses me.

Gary,

Just one small correction...its Grain Valley, MO. Enjoy your time off and especially Batman...GREAT movie!!! You nailed the forcast for this week too...Your the BEST!!!

Jeff

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Jeff,

Just a little mistake!

Gary

Gary,
At Line Creek pool, how long will you be there today?  I don't get off work until 4...

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I will be there until 4:30 or so.  Try to come on by.

Gary

This is my kind of weather.  I love it!  It gets me ready for fall and winter.  Love love love the 60's and 70's.  Let's have some more!

This is my kind of weather.  I love it!  It gets me ready for fall and winter.  Love love love the 60's and 70's.  Let's have some more!

If this could have only been snow! How sweet that would have been.

I hate this weather.  Not only has it been "raining" for 30 hours at my house, it's been almost imperceptibly light and has accumulated to just .98 of an inch.  Oh boy, how exciting!  I'd like to admit I'm shocked, but really, I'm not.  The higher rain totals have missed my area in northeast KCMO all year.  I can't complain too much, I guess, .98 of an inch, no matter how it arrives, is welcome after the last six weeks of nearly no precipitation whatsoever.

1.55 from late Tuesday through this AM near I-29 & 64th. Didn't get the total from the pre-frontal deluge early Tuesday afternoon.

Hey, Gary,
I am wondering how much the activity of the hurricane season affects the set-up of the new LRC. Given that the break-down of the old cycle and the set-up of the new one coincide with the hurricane season, it seems they might be directly related.
Janet

Oops I didn't mean to post that twice, I guess I just love this weather so much!  Haha!  Gary, have a great few days off.  You deserve it and we know the guys will do a great job while you are off!  

Are you going to take a little video of your swim date Gary?  That would be fun to watch on the blog!  :) Laura

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Laura,

Our camera crew is coming out.  Hopefully they will get some good video and we will show it on the air tonight, but since I am off I probably won't be able to get it online until tomorrow or next week.

Gary

1.90" total for the entire rain event here at 150 & 291 near Greenwood. Came just in time for my lawn! Perfect rainfall. The last several storms have been "gully washers" which don't allow the soil to adequately absorb the moisture.

DREXEL total Tuesday-Thursday /  1.98"

Gary,

Well well well...last night you replied this back to me in the last blog..

"It was a long wait, but it now appears that 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall is still likely."

That didn't happen from 10PM last night to now.  Atleast not anything near widespread in the metro.

If you look at what I wrote yesterday, you will see that I thought it would be at or below an inch on average for the total of Wed-Thurs in the metro.  If you look at your totals above, subtracting Tuesday...I was not overly conservative.

Looking at the NWS data, it seems that the highest amounts were about 1.31 Downtown, 1.29 at Olathe as a two day total with Lee's Summit and KMCI coming in just less than that.

[only looking at stations in the metro]

I missed by a hair, but was far closer than any of the QPFs that the NAM was showing.  Further proof in my mind that the NAM is all wet.

I think your forecast was very well done.  In looking back through the blogs, you were consistent and accurate.  

I won't push the point any further, and hadn't planned on pushing it this far, but it seems my thoughts of about an inch was something you took issue with.

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Scott,

No, I have to disagree.  1-2 inches did fall in spots after 10 PM.  I won't even go into your forecast today.  Our forecast for 1 inch or more with 4 inches to the east and temperatures in the 50s yesterday panned out as perfectly as a forecast can possibly be.  So, try to criticise our forecast, I just don't think it would be fair.

Gary

Wanted to pass along 1.6 inches in Piper, KS.

We had 2.87" total out in Higginsville, MO although as of right now it is still sprinkling

Hey Gary, we have 4.00 in Smithton. Do you think the weather we are having now is any indicator of what we can expect this winter? (knowing the LRC doesn't crank-up until Oct. or so)

1.41" at 143rd and Nall in OP.

1.41" at 143rd and Nall in OP.

Scott, you were downcasting more than you are admitting now. For example, you wrote " I guess if we get another 24 hours of rain, we might squeak out a full inch in the metro... LOL.."

Well, about 12 hours later, the entire metro has gotten at least an inch....and KCI, the only spot that matters, got almost 2. LOL indeed.

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Rdub,

Thanks for making the point. 

Gary

Storm total near 128th & Mur-Len, Olathe, Ks ... 1.3"

Gary,

With the radar clearing and only sprinkles left Warrensburg is sitting right at 5.5 since yesterday.

Final tally for South side of Liberty was 2.1"  1" of this was after 10pm so you had it right Gary.  My yard is very happy!!!!!!!!!  

Gary what are your thoughts on IKE, Ike Is a monster storm, it's forecast to weaken before approaching the US but on Satellite, it appears Hanna and the wind shear associated with Hanna is moving right along with Ike, so could Ike survive the Trek?

3.1 inches total in harrisonville! wow...these hurricanes aren't so bad for us..lol

By the way, Scott or Notes or someone, who won the Labor Day contest?

Gary, please read my entire entry before making your comments.

I said above "I think your forecast was very well done.  In looking back through the blogs, you were consistent and accurate. "

And you said "Our forecast for 1 inch or more with 4 inches to the east and temperatures in the 50s yesterday panned out as perfectly as a forecast can possibly be.  So, try to criticise our forecast, I just don't think it would be fair."

Again, I think there is an axe to grind here, but not sure why?

Rdub, I would love to address your statement -

"Scott, you were downcasting more than you are admitting now. For example, you wrote " I guess if we get another 24 hours of rain, we might squeak out a full inch in the metro... LOL.."  

Well, about 12 hours later, the entire metro has gotten at least an inch....and KCI, the only spot that matters, got almost 2. LOL indeed. "

First of all...remember the context of my forecast.  It was for yesterday and today.  It was also specific to the metro area.

Period.

Based on the time that was written, many points in the metro were less than .2 inches for the totals at that time for the forecast period.  Rdub, I am quite suprised that you didn't take the WHOLE statement I made as it changes the context

"Gary, based on radar estimates, the current rainfall rates are the same or less than they have been all day for the metro...<.02 an hour.  I guess if we get another 24 hours of rain, we might squeak out a full inch in the metro..."

KMCI had .58 yesterday and is about .61 today.  Rdub, help me understand how 1.19 inches is almost 2.00 inches and closer to reality and an inch?

I always love the learning opportunities in this blog.  Everyday, I get to better understand how tough it must be for Gary and the team.  When specific forecasts are made both in amounts, time and location, its amazing how perception, lack of reading or otherwise will skew perception to what actually occured.

It is very tough to know a forecast was good and supported by the data and have it critiqued as it is not what was remembered or otherwise subjectively dismissed.

Kudos to you Gary and the rest of the team.  I definitely can appreciate your frustration.  It will certainly make me think twice in the future in any critique, as I will ensure I have data supporting any critique I may make.

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Scott,

I read your entire email.....LOL.   Really!  Anyway, KCI was always on the northwestern edge.  But, the storm did produce a very long rainfall event for this time of the year.  Not bad!

Gary

I was basing it on what Gary reported at the top of the blog...1.98". Guess that includes Tuesday as well.

Anyway, Scott, you spent all day yesterday saying how you thought this was turning into a non-event, how we'd be lucky to "squeak" a full inch in the metro...and it turned out you were wrong. We easily got a full inch in the entire metro.

No problem, everyone makes wrong forecasts. What I don't understand is why you then came back to brag about how correct your forecast was.

This thing is definitely strongly resembling a winter storm, from the bands of precip, the intensity, the duration, and going back to the bands of precip, the way the precip. "acted" on radar, it's texture ect. and even now the lingering cloud cover it is just like having a major snow storm that was just placed in early September where it was too warm to snow.
WOW, in just three weeks the daylight hours will lose their hold as being the larger of the two parts of the day.  One last thought is this really seems to me to be still largely the old pattern because one again SOUTHERN MISSOURI got another massive precip. event like they have been getting since last winter, records have to have been broken down there.

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Nick,

We believe strongly that we are still in the old weather pattern, in a slowly changing kind of way.  This is what we noticed last year as well.  We are only two years into experiencing when the pattern actually ends, and the new LRC begins.  I can go back and look at the other years, and I will, but this is good to know.  Now, we are about 20 years into knowing what happens in October.  The roulette wheel begins spinning, but not yet.

Gary

3.85 total rainfall in Kingsville.

Steve in Sedalia here...haven't posted in a long time..just thought I would report my rain total on the SE side of Sedalia. We ended up with 5.50 inches...very impressed when I emptied the rain gauge this afternoon.

Sorry, sometimes seeing Scott's posts, which are mostly pretty cool, just tire me out when I start reading them. So yeah I stop reading them. Sometimes it seems like the "I'm better than you" thing going on. When others make predictions, Hail, RDub, Notes, Pvt, they don't come across as appearing superior. Just MHO, may not be worth much but sometimes I think it's too over the top.

Ok so I know rain is good and we need it for our yards. I don't appreciate cool weather this soon and it could be be in the 70's and low 80's forever as far as I'm concerned. To me, rain events aren't that much fun if there's no severe watch attached to it. Severe just make sit more interesting and the season is over way too soon.

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I'm glad we got some rain, but I would really like the 70s and 80s to stick around for a long time!  I'm not a fan of winter as many know.

Jeremy

i received 2.3 since tues here in se lee's summit

west leavenworth since tuesday 2.50 of rain just what the lawn needed thank you Gustav!!!!!

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Thanks for all the rain totals today!  Brett showed a lot of them during the midday show.  I will try to add some new one's for the 5 p.m. show today.  Keep in mind we don't have a 6 p.m. show because of the NFL regular season opener on NBC!  Finally, football season!

Jeremy

I just wanted to send this report we have drizzle falling in leavenworth.

Hello weather team.   Here's my rainfall amount for Grandview.

From Tuesday afternoon through today = 2.20 inches

Bill

.95 inches of rain at 151st and Mur-Len

Sorry, 151st and Mur-Len is in Olathe.

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Got it...thanks!

Jeremy

10-4 whirlygirl...sometimes splitting hairs gets old.

Rdub, I was the winner for the summer temp forecast

Gary/Jeremy, in this link for one of the new NOAA sattalites, why are the cloads yellow and the key only has white?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html

Whirlygirl,

I understand what you are saying.  I am aggressive in my thoughts and on most accounts have data to back it up.  Because of my assertive nature, I can understand the uncomfortable feeling and the sometimes "better than you" tone it may take.

I don't honestly feel this way as there is so much left for me to learn regarding weather.

I debate.  There is no doubt about that.  For all that have watched me over the years on the blog, I am someone that will stir up conversation and put out my thoughts.

I am not shy about debate about what I consider subjective.  This is likely the nitpicky type things folks don't like.  Coming from a strong scientific mindset, it sometimes drives me crazy how perception will spin 180 degrees from reality.

It is a blog, and it does ask me above the comment box "what do I think?"

I am also very verbose.  I am not the most brief writer.  So, all said, if I offend you or others with my posts, but all means, skip over them.  

No worries..not everyone is going to like everyone..and certainly I have my critics.  I am a big boy and accept that fact.

;-)

OK, here's the final (I hope) total for Emma, MO. After the 1.20" I reported from midnight, we added 2.22" for a grand and soggy total of 3.42" from the former Gustav.

Walt Snyder

Stormdog - 1.23" 0 Gustav gave. Period.

The dog

Scott, I for one like your "verbosity".  Once I muddle through the lingo and other scientific terms ( not being very scientifically minded myself ), I do learn from what you and others write. That is one thing I really like about this blog - I am learning new things about the weather all the time.  Dea

Final for Sibley: 2 3/4"  

Ike is mean looking. any thoughts by anyone if the windsheer forecast to encounter it will disperse because on satellite it looks like it's following hanna but I'm an amateur and that's why I'm asking the question.

ike is going to weaken over the next 24 hours...for more than one reason.  sheer is one, and the other being that strong storms by necessity go through weakening stages after minimum central pressure is achieved.  it is a natural occurrence in the life cycle of major hurricanes.  

total rain for the entire event: 2.41".  1.73" of it fell on tuesday.  

"I'm glad we got some rain, but I would really like the 70s and 80s to stick around for a long time!  I'm not a fan of winter as many know."

Neither am I, Jeremy.  I agree 100% with you there.  We'll be stuck in the freezer soon enough.  Let's hang on to the warmth as long as we can.

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I never have trouble driving in the summer...the roads aren't slippery:)

Jeremy

anyone think that some 40's are possible tonight?

its currently 57 degrees here.

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Probably in some river valleys and low lying areas outside the city.  Next Tuesday morning looks like 40s for many if things continue to hold true in the forecast.

Jeremy

dont change a thing wxguy - what is the earliest snow in KC ? was it the october suprise 10yrs ago?

Hey weather team,

I forgot to post my rainfall for Marceline, MO this morning. We got 2.6 inches according to my guage. This weather, and the rain total made me a happy camper.

I cant wait to see what the new LRC has in store for us! I hope for a cold, wet winter!

2.6 inches in Marceline, MO

Alex

Where did you get close to 2" of rain for KCI.  According to EAX's F6 on their website KCI received 1.46" for the first few days of Sept.

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Climate summary has just over 2" so far at KCI.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=eax

47 degrees here in foggy st jo this morning. good dog walking. ************** The forecast worked out pretty well for this morning. Upper 40s to low 50s and fog. Looks like the next week could push September temps well below average. Jeremy

so...according to the nbc almanac...kci broke the record low by 4 degrees? wow.

48.2* was the low here this morning, btw. ************ I think the record is 46 for today. We'll have to look at the almanac page. Jeremy