Watch NBC Action News HD this weekend at 10 p.m. Saturday and beginning Sunday morning at 8 a.m. for the latest on rain chances!
****************************
Hurricane Ike slammed into the Turks and Caicos islands overnight as a category 4 hurricane. One automated weather station on Grand Turk island reported a sustained wind of 114 mph! Over 80% of the homes have been damaged or destroyed on some of these islands. I'm sure the pictures/video that become available later today will show the devastation.
Our weather today will be an improvement on Saturday's very dreary weather. For today will see a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low to mid 70s. More clouds will stream in this afternoon ahead of our next weather maker. A stray shower can't be ruled out today, but that chance is at 20% right now. Don't cancel any outdoor plans.
***************************
What a dreary start to the weekend across the region! Clouds and showers kept temperatures in the 60s. I still want to remind those that enjoy warm days that the average highs is still in the low 80s...so it will warm up at some point soon(I hope). Until then let's focus on the cool and damp weather.
This evening we can expect the showers to taper to some drizzle and then end from west to east. The clouds will linger for much of tonight. Any areas that do see clearing will have fog develop quickly with light to calm winds. Lows should drop into the mid 50s.
The Sunday forecast is a little better than today's weather, but still temperatures will be well below average. Skies will be on average mostly cloudy, but likely variably cloudy again. There is a chance of a shower or two, but the best chance will be south of the metro. Highs should warm into the low 70s.
Our next significant storm system will arrive on Monday. With a warm front lifting north on Sunday Night and the low level jet transporting moisture up and over it there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. The Monday forecast will hinge on a few things. First, if thunderstorms do occur early Monday how many clouds are left over and how quickly will they clear? Also, how far north will the warm front push? For the past several days it looked very cool for Kansas City, but now I think we should warm into the 70s on Monday, with some parts of the metro maybe reaching 80 or better. As the warm front sags south a strong cold front will move in. This will drop temperatures potentially into the 50s by late afternoon or during the evening as showers move back into the area. Here is the GFS temperature forecast late Monday. Look at the spread across the viewing area! A little shift either way and we could see highs in the 60s or 80s!
The temperatures will be tricky...but so will the rainfall forecast. If thunderstorms do occur both Sunday Night and again with the front later Monday the forecast below will likely end up lower than the actual totals. But this is the rainfall forecast from the GFS to give you an idea of where the heavy rain corridor sets up. I know Gary believes that we are still in the same pattern(LRC) that we were last winter and spring. And just a quick glance at this map lines up the heavy rain corridor with many of the spots that were hardest hit with heavy rain this past spring and record snow in the winter.
Hurricane Ike continues to churn west-southwest as a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds estimated at 135mph. Ike is forecast to continue on this track and eventually make landfall on the island of Cuba. Depending on how much interaction the storm has with Cuba will go a long way in determining the structure and strength of Ike if it does move into the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast error is so large 4-5 days out that one must keep in mind the forecast 'fan' that the NHC issues along with the forecast path. Right now anywhere in Gulf of Mexico needs to keep a heads up for a possible hurricane late next week.
Here is the latest forecast path.
I hope everyone has a great Sunday and please tell your family and friends about our weather blog and also our newscasts which can be seen on Sunday from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. Starting this Sunday and continuing until the end of December, the 10 p.m. show will begin right after Sunday Night football. Is anyone else excited for fantasy football? I know Gary, Jeff, Brett, and myself are each in at least one league! So if our weather has signaled the transition into fall, the start of the football season should.
Jeremy