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Good evening...I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! We are wrapping our Sunday up with a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms that are slowly lifting north. The line is north of the metro as of this writing. The showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight are being fueled as warmer and more moist air is forced up and over a warm front to our south. Dew points near the Missouri/Arkansas border are in the low 70s! As the low level jet turns in our direction overnight we should see another more impressive area of thunderstorms develop. This could bring some heavy rain to parts of the area. Right now the heaviest rain looks to fall near and north of I-70. We'll have to see how this sets up overnight because some areas to the south of KC could see some rain as well.
The forecast for Monday is still complex as a front hangs across the area in the morning and then drops southeast as the day progresses. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the 70s and 80s. With 50s and 60s behind the front. I think with a good deal of clouds in the morning and not much time near or south of the front highs in the metro will likely be in the 60s. This map from the HPC should give you a good idea of the challenge ahead for Monday.
Rain totals in spots could be 1-2"+...with the highest chance of this occurring along or north of I-70. Otherwise, I think most/all locations at least see some rain either tonight/early Monday or Monday afternoon.
We continue to watch Hurricane Ike in the Carribean as it is about to make landfall in Cuba as a major hurricane. Here is an infrared image of Ike from around 7 p.m. this evening. Notice the eye very near the coast of Cuba.
The 12Z GFS tried to bring the remnants of Ike into the lower Midwest or Mississippi Valley by next weekend, but the 18Z run had the storm farther south. We'll have to watch the track closely since many of the tropical systems in the Gulf this season have moved into the general position of the long term long wave that has persisted for much of the 2008.
It may be a good idea to send some warm clothes with the kids to school in the morning as temperatures will be falling quickly behind the cold front. By Tuesday morning temperatures will likely be in the 40s in Kansas City. The record low of 46 for September 9 will be in danger of falling. And I also believe that the coolest pockets in northern Missouri will see lows in the upper 30s!
Gary will have an update early Monday morning to get everyone ready for the changes ahead!
Jeremy