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Gary, when I left home at 7:45 there was already 2 1/4 inches...it came down fast & hard.  It sure was nice to wake up to thunder!

Gary what are your thoughts on the SPC's slight risk for area?

As of 8am, 2.40 inches at 291 Hwy and Stark Ave. in KCMO.  It was still raining when I left, but being at work I can't check for an updated total.  We must be morphing into a new pattern since this is the heaviest rain I've seen all summer long.    ~ Dave

Gary uses words like "cool and fall", I say.."where in the world are my longjohn's"

Wind is brisk and chilly in Leavenworth this morning, perfecting canning weather, but I wasn't ready for such an abrupt end to summer. I see a long "honey do" list in my husbands near future to get ready for what I have a feeling is going to be a harsh winter.

I see you have a 50% chance at noon. Do you think that we will see ant rain before 5:00pm? Also, my last question...... will the rain be very light and spotty?

Thank you.

2.5 in SE Leavenworth County.  Lots of BOOM BOOM BOOMs this morning.  

I think it will make a run at the record for sure.  Its gonna be chilly.

Wondering/learning about fog still.  If dewpoints are in the mid 40s as well the temps, with light winds...should we expect some light fog?

Help me understand the mechanics of fog...

Near 128th & Mur-Len, Olathe ...  0.26"

Gary,

As far west as Ike is being predicted to travel do you forsee it affecting KC as much as Gustav did, if not more?  I know the safe answer is, it's to far away to tell, but come on give us a prediction, we won't hold you to it.  :)

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It is possible.  I just responded to Notes comment.  Let's see how it looks later today or Tuesday.

Gary

123rd and Hollingsworth in KCK - 1.8" with the sun now starting to pop out some.

OK with Mark M living in western KCK to my north, I am beginning to wonder if my automatic rain gauge is on target with the 3.24. I will have to check my standard rain gauge as well and see what it says. I am just wondering if it collected maybe some hail as well and that caused the increase in rainfall amounts. But looking at storm total rainfall amounts on radar looks like the 3.24 could be pretty close. Is it possible to have that kind of spread in rain amounts in about 15 block area?

Bryan

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Bryan,

Your total seems reasonable to me.

Gary

I'm calling 39 in Lawrence (KLWC).

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Notes,

Maybe in Tonganoxie, but will it clear in time farther south.  Probably.  I will go for 41 in Lawrence.

What do you think of another tropical system somewhat affecting us this weekend?  If it stays south then it could go around the ridge and come up into Missouri?  Obviously I am not confident that this will happen, but the weather pattern seems favorable for it.  At this time of the year it becomes increasingly difficult to get a tropical system from the Atlantic basin.  After mid September the flow is usually to strong and we would have to pull something from the Gulf of California or the Pacific, but it isn't too late yet.

Gary

Near 87th & Antioch in Overland Park had .30 inches of rain. The first round of T-storms woke me up about 4:15 or 4:30, then my poor puppy got caught outside in the last round around 7 AM! I got him in as quick as I could--thank goodness for the tree coverage so he wasn't completely soaked!

.83" at the fort...45 is doable at kci i believe.  

scott, when the water vapor in the air approaches 100% of the host air's capacity to hold moisture, the air becomes saturated, forming on condensation nucleus(-ei).  this is why there is dew on the lawn because it has something to attach itself to.  if the air becomes supersaturated, then the moisture condenses and begins forming in the air molecules, hence creating stratus, which as you know is fog.  in order for this to occur, there needs to be aerosols, pollutants, dust...etc in the air.

think of it as a glass of water.  add salt to the glass of water until the salt makes it all the way to the bottom of the glass and it sits there.   this is when you have reached the point of supersaturation.  the salt at the bottom of the glass represents fog.  now, if you give the water a good stir for a minute, you will find that the salt has dissolved.  this would be the effect wind would have on fog.  wind mixes out the saturated air particles dispersing it throughout the atmosphere.  also, if you stick that glass of saltwater in the freezer, eventually all of the salt will appear on the bottom of the glass with the water slowly freezing from top to bottom.  you have just completed the cycle.

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Pvt Murphy,

Complex but good information!  Thanks for sharing.  At 4:30 this morning I was awakened by very heavy rain.  And, the visibility was near zero at the time, but the fog rapidly got dispersed as the thunderstorm had a little bit of outflow.

Gary

no rain here......no snow either....


lol

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Brent,

What are you going to do when we have our first chance of snow?  Are you ready?

Gary

Oh yes, bring on the snow!  My hubby calls me crazy, but I don't mind driving in it, I love to shovel the drive and sidewalks ( I even do my neighbors drive) and I just LOVE the cold!=)
Love the cooler temps, just wish it wasn't so dreary looking out, makes me want to curl up in bed with some coffee and a good book.

on a separate note, that pesky bermuda high has been unusually persistent this season, hasnt it?  i could be mistaken, but i think only one storm all season has hooked ne before interacting with north america.  this is rare, usually the majority of storms form in the atlantic, then curve out to sea...weird.  not as weird as whole year of cool temps in the midst of supposed global warming though ;)

gary, i dont know if it was the METARS graph you were trying to post, but i think it would suggest that the front is blowing through downtown kc as we speak...right?

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Murph,

Yes, I had the front a bit too far to the south on my map. The real front is sort of disguised, and not a big player today as we have lost our lifting.  So, besides a little mist we are done with the rain.

Gary

oh nevermind, i see that you posted it now...well, atleast i guessed right!

Gary, tell me why Ike would not head to the same longwave position?

I expect it to take a very similar path to Gus onces it comes inland...

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Scott,

Except that it isn't exactly the same.  It still is following a similar path and will curve and get picked up by the flow.  This is farther south than Gustav, so it will take a farther south and west track.

The latest data has all kinds of interesting things happen, but I wouldn't count on it yet.

Gary

Will you guys ever have your newscast live on the internet?

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Andrew,

I am sure some day that will happen.  I just don't know what the time table is.

Gary

I take it by your response to my last entry that you missed most of last weeks rain events?? That stinks...maybe you will get all the snow though!! That is a nice thought huh?? :o) I am hoping to get some left over moisture from Ike...most of Missouri is probably hoping it misses them this time.
Monica

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Monica,

I have gotten all of the rainfall events, but the least amount out of each one.  Today was especially frustrating with it being just 15 miles away.

 

Gary

I am so hoping that Ike stays away! I have my last camping trip of the season this weekend down in southwest Missouri and I don't even want to think about sitting in a tent for three days! Keeping my finger's crossed. :-)

We had 0.74 inches of rain in the eastern Desoto / western Lenexa area.

What do you think this Saturday and Sunday will be like? We're hosting the annual Hidden Glen Arts Festival in Cedar Creek, and would appreciate lovely weather!

(:->)

What are the chances of it warming into the high 80's or 90's again for 3 or more days in the next month?  I don't want it to warm up again, but figure it will happen before fall really sets in.

kci has reported 1.7" today so far.

Hiawatha - As of noon we have had 1.6" and it's pouring again here at 1:50pm with some thunder also around.  We've been missing out on the rain in August so we really needed this nice rain!

i am certain its possible to get back into the upper 80's over the next few weeks nasty.   however, even if it does, it would be different than the last upper 80's we have experienced.  it would likely be in response to a digging trough with a strong cold front proceeding it.  which would mean that it would likely be drier, therefore no heat index to speak of, it would be windy, which would make it feel more comfortable, and finally, it would be short lived.  there wouldnt likely be a stretch of multiple days like that.  although, you dont have to go far back until you see what we did the first 3 days of october '06.  this year is clearly different than '06 though.  its my personal opinion(not that you asked) that we are done with 90's.  it would be insane if we didnt have atleast 1 more run at the mid-upper 80's the rest of the year.  the window is closing fast however.  the jet is really amping up right now.  these fronts we have experienced arent really strong, and we are already dipping into the mid 40s.  

personally, i am hoping for a long fall.  but, signs are emerging that we may be getting quite chilly over the next couple months...leaves are changing already, squirrels are active(no nuts on the oaks yet for them to horde though).  the deer are out early this year too.  not to mention we are losing nearly 3 minutes of light a day.  and, this has been a particularly active year for volcanoes, so, the SO2 levels are pretty high in the upper atmosphere-which inherently diminishes the amount of heating the earth gets from the sun.  

Who needs the LRC when you got Murph...LOL

[j/k, pvt]

Weather team,
I had 3.45 here at 68th  and leavenworth rd in kck and a flooded gurage. It came down hard in a very short period with a whole lot of lightning.

-Rodney

Odd sign of things to come...

These last 5 days have been a cooler streak [amounts below average mean temperature] than any other days back all the way to last April.

To restate, the last few days streak is quite different than any of the weather in the pattern ending up summer.  I expect the mean temp difference for tonight to be signficantly lower than norm factoring in the high/low temp mean to the average.

We may make a run at 20+ degrees below average today!

Summer is long gone.  We have been in an early fall for the last few weeks [IMO].  I really do believe we are in for a cold and harsh winter.  Not so sure we will miss snow this year...

Hooray for the amped up jet!

Measured .87th's  of rain from this morning team!

Laura n' Raytown

"personally, i am hoping for a long fall.  but, signs are emerging that we may be getting quite chilly over the next couple months...leaves are changing already, squirrels are active(no nuts on the oaks yet for them to horde though).  the deer are out early this year too.  not to mention we are losing nearly 3 minutes of light a day.  and, this has been a particularly active year for volcanoes, so, the SO2 levels are pretty high in the upper atmosphere-which inherently diminishes the amount of heating the earth gets from the sun."






You know Murphy, I have noticed that too.  The squirrels here in my backyard have been out a lot more now that I think about it.  Everyone knows their backyard, and when the critters that live in the trees are more and more activce bouncing around on the ground diggin for seeds all of a sudden you wonder!

Dont animals have a weather sense/instinct ?  I have read some really interesting stories about animals "sensing" weather events well before they ever happen.


For the most part the trees in my area are all still a rich green.  After the rains though I notice an increasing number of yellow leaves on the roads.

Thanks for the info Murph, much appreciated.  I read something awhile back that some notable scientists actually think we're approaching a "global cooling" period, because of less activity from the Sun.   Not trying to start an environmental debate, just throwing that out there.

This is horrible. It has been much cooler this summer, to me, and it was a long time in warming up. Now it's already looking like November. I can start decorating for autumn alot earlier this year I guess. I hate wearing coats. I hate the days when I can't get up, throw on shorts and a shirt and call it good.
To make it worse, there are crazies at work begging for cold weather.  What's wrong with 78 or 85 and dry air? I could do that year round!
I know, one day I will have to trek back west to get my warm weather. Since I have a good job and just bought a duplex, obviously I am here for awhile. But that doesn't mean I will be agreeing with all the 5150's (JK!) that prefer snow and ice and wearing coats and gloves to lounging on the deck with a cold one and getting tanned.

Amen Jeri!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A cooler than average July-Aug and Sept, does not reflect the coming winter.  If anything, it might show us signs of an eariler than average frost.  If you go back through weather patterns back about 30 years, there was no cooler than average summer that produced anything other than being within winter averages.
Using the analog idea, those patterns most similar to ours do reflect an early winter into November and again in February.  
The pattern is still changing (according to the LRC) and I agree we can't be fooled by what's happening now.

Hey Gary,

It poured extremely hard this morning here in Marceline, and places that you never see standing water were like a river!!

I just got home, and my guage has 2.8 inches in it. There was quite a bit of lightning, but the rain was insane.

Alex

Jeri I see where you are coming from.  I am one of those eager for snow.  I am a seasonal person.  I could never live somewhere that didnt have changes in the seasons like from spring to summer, and fall to winter.  Growing up in the wooded areas of western Lenexa (back then Monticello Township) you can really appreciate a good fall.

Following the weather is fun as well.  The storms of spring, and the snows of late December during the holidays.  For me, a Christmas of 75 degrees just wouldnt feel normal FOR ME.  


A lot of my friends who want 75-80 all year round have mostly moved to southern California.  Great place, but really lacking in weather and seasonal excitement.


Time moves, and before you know it springtime will be here within a blink of the eye.  It is the good points of winter that make it worth the uncomfortable cold like watching a heavy wet snow fall Friday night with a wood burning fireplace crackling with that burning oak or pine scent.  Hot chocolate with someone special watching movies under some soft blankets......ah yeeaahhh

Jeri - the 5150 reference made me laugh.  Not working in the industry, it has been awhile since I have heard that.

Here is to a cold wet fall/winter!

No, make it stop!  I am not ready for temps in the 40s!!! Yuck.

What happened to NetCast?

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It has been gone for months.  We are doing weather video and other video links instead.

Gary

Patriot, how about I allow you snow on Christmas? I have to work anyway. :) Then I will have it back to 78-80 and I will come spray your house with evergreen and oak scents, make you a chocolate martini, you can listen to my bones crackle , and I'll cover you with blankets while you watch a DVD with your AC on .
Yes!

Scott -

Does this 5+ day stretch of significantly cool weather (well below average) repeat back in your cycles every 56 days?  

i do believe a couple people have told you the same thing scott... ;)

notes, my first instinct would be to say no way, but when i looked back at july, ~56 days ago we were having the chilliest temps compared to average over the whole month.  i do think its a coincidence however.  not only was it not nearly as off average as this month, but picking out consecutive days below average this year is like shooting fish in a barrel.  not to mention we were well above avg during the prior 56 days into may.

Its freezing, 55 degrees and falling! Not a lot of rain this morning but lots and lots of lightning at the Jhonson County Executive Airport.

Notes, I am not sure.  I haven't looked.

I guess it can be researched real quick in looking at historical data.  My gut tells me that we are starting a new pattern.  I do think we are in transition right now between old and the new.  I see influences of both.  Mainly in the upper levels.  Per sensible weather, I believe that the old pattern's influence has largely subsided.

You can see more on this on my blog.

I feel as though the sensible weather now is more to the new pattern, but do not currently have any data to support this feeling.

I have a hunch based on analyzing the models that we may be in the new pattern.  

Using model forecasts is not the preferred method in evaluating the new pattern, but then again...I do seem to do things differently.

I am so far somewhat alone in this belief.  Nothing new there.  I think the long term longwave has shifted west and I believe I have spotted a few pieces of the new pattern.

Still early.  It took me until late Sept last year to find this year's pattern, and probably will take the same time this year unless the pattern is shorter [I think it is right now].

pvt - ;-)

I am looking for some specific waves in the upcoming two weeks.  We will see...

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Scott,

What specific waves?

Gary

Kcwxguy,
You know we are still in the same pattern right now.  I did a ton of research over the weekend.  Today is April 4th.  This falls right in line with 52 days.  The jet shifting north and south during the spring and fall is part of the pattern.  We AREN'T in the new pattern yet.  We are still clearly in the same pattern that we have been in over the past 11 months.  I have no doubt about it.
Heady

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Heady,

Thank you! I agree.  We are in about a 52 day cycle, and this past year we have learned a lot more about the LRC.  More coming up in October.

Gary

KCK near N 18th and State:  

Today so far:  2.95  

Month of September to date:  4.51

Year to date:  40.05

All I can say about this morning is "Wow!"
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And, for the year....40"  wow!

Gary

Gary, I won't go into the specific waves again.  I have posted it in the last week on this blog.  It was rather lengthy and too lazy to retype it.

Sorry...

[Doug] Heady, I think the old pattern is ending, but still barely there.  I believe the new is starting as well.  We are in transition.

I again refer to my previous post :

"I feel as though the sensible weather now is more to the new pattern, but do not currently have any data to support this feeling. "

You said -  "We AREN'T in the new pattern yet.  We are still clearly in the same pattern that we have been in over the past 11 months.  I have no doubt about it."

Aside from comparing maps [somewhat subjective], what other quantitative data do you have to feel so confident?

I agree that the old pattern has signs..but think the new pattern is showing signs as well.

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Scott,

The new pattern doesn't set up until sometime in October.  This is according to the LRC!

Gary

My sign is Virgo.

amazing sunset right now! clouds are clearing quickly here.  its already down to 52 here.  42 here we come!

Just sharing my thoughts as of right now, Gary..not questioning the LRC definition.

We had a total of 2.25 in Liberty (at least my part of town)

I agree Jeri!  We didn't even get to have a summer, the only season I particularly like in KS.  I didn't go swimming one time, the only heatwave we had was while I was in NYC, so no swimming here in KS for me, it has to be at least 95-100 degrees for that.  It is so hard not to get depressed with the shortened days, dreary skies and having to be inside the majority of the time.  I can't believe I am going to have to wear a turtleneck and hoodie tomorrow to go walking with Windy.  I'm happy for those of you who like this weather, please enjoy it for me, I guess it's time to start my hibernation....*sigh*
--deb

DPannell,

I agree, I kind of feel like I missed out on summer, even though I was here the whole time. The only head wave we had conveniently coincided with the weekend we had to move, how lovely! =) I think the leaves will definitely start changing early this year with these early cool temps.

Scott,
It isn't just one map, it as all of the maps.  Every single day has been right in line with the pattern.  We are in the pattern as much as we where 2 months ago, 6 months ago and 8 months ago.  I did extensive day by day research this weekend.  Plus I researched the southern hem. as well.  They are right in line with the same pattern they have been in.  There is something that is going to happen here over the next few weeks that will pull or push or whatever into the new pattern.  I am looking very closely into that.  However, I haven't seen any signs that we have started a new pattern yet.  The only signs I see are that we are in the same pattern.  I can back it up with 300+ days of maps.  I think that completely supports it.  Sorry for grammer, getting ready for the 10

I'm in the same pattern, too.  Plaid.  

Hey Gary,

An update on my rainfall here in Marceline...We are now up to 3.00 inches for today.

What a crazy day!

Alex