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Gary,
This looks like just a small shift could bring us significant rainfall, what do you anticipate the temps to be with all of this moisture?

Foggy and cold in Leavenworth this morning, cannot see 50'

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We should go into a more tropical air mass by Thursday, possibly by later tomorrow with dewpoints rising back into the 60s, but yes a small shift will make a big difference on rain potential.

Gary

Great flooding just in time for harvest. We already have muddy fields without any more rain.

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There are some indications of some dry weather after we get this tropical moisture out of here.  We may go into northwest flow and dry things out for a few days next week.  I am not sure yet, however.

Gary

I am not gonna get to worried about all that rain just yet.....but I am certainly going to get my hubby to take down our pool and clean out the gutters just in case. Needs to be done anyways. The weather this am feels faaaannntastic...we slept with our windows cracked and it was wonderful. My nose, eyes and head are paying the price today but it was worth it. :o)  Have a cool breezy day!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

I agree it is a Faaaaaaaantastic day!  The rain is still a bit suspect as there isn't a front near by. So, let's see what it looks like as we get a day closer.

Gary

Gary,

Looks like we are still in this same hit and miss pattern...with what seems like each rain event parts of the city gets dumped on and other area's get nothing or next to nothing. I only got .15 yesterday in SW Grain Valley...but a couple of weeks ago, we got over 2inches with other parts of the city not getting anything...just seems weird...is there any explaination, other than KC has a large square mile coverage compared to other cities?

Jeff      

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Jeff,

It is typical with convective precipitation events (showers and thunderstorms) as opposed to stratiform precipitation events, that happen during the colder months, to have wide variations in amounts in close proximity to each other.  We are still in the summer season, and when the rainfall is being produced in bands of showers and thunderstorms we will continue to see this happen.  Over a three month period the amounts should even out in most locations, but there are other things going on like the weather pattern that we have been in all year.  Overall though, we have seen most spots get a pretty nice amount of rain all summer long, with a few dry stretches at times. 

This next rainfall potential for Thursday and Friday could have some widely varying totals in our viewing area again.  I am going to try to make a rainfall forecast for the viewing area tonight.

Gary

Oh, who was the woman who enjoyed shoveling snow on the blog yesterday? I was wondering how close she lived to western Shawnee and if she could shovel for me this winter :)
So if we are going to get rain this week and it's cooling off should I throw down some grass seed ? It is amazing what 2 dogs can do to a lawn, they don't dig much but I have patches all over the back yard plus the usual path where they run out from the garage through the gate.

Gary, I love the unseasonably cool temperatures...are we going back to seasonal averages any time soon?

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Mike,

Yes, it appears we are going to trend back to the seasonable averages in the next couple of weeks, but with a slightly cooler than average pattern continuing.

Gary

For what  its worth, Some of the worst rain and flooding events I remember are from September and October, so seeing an 8" bullseye on a computer model in the region is worrysome along with 2 tropical systems that could feed moisture in the area..

Is it just me or has this been the cloudiest August and September? I can't  recall one with less sunlight.

Jon

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Jon,

I think it is just your perception on the clouds, but I don't have any data to back it up.  We definitely have had quite a few cloudy days in the past month.

 

Gary

Gary,

Love your forecasts and passion for the weather--by far the best in the metro.  Was just wondering if there are any groundrules for rainfall totals.  I would assume these are normally midnight to midnight figures, but I typically empty first thing in the morning.  I live in a somewhat underreported area of SE Douglas County, but I would hate to cause any undue stress or harm to others by reporting under an inconsistent set of rules.

Slade

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Slade,

Each day is considered 00z to 00z officially.  Until the time changes in November this is 1 AM to 1 AM.  Then it switches back to midnight to midnight after the time change.  For our purposes, when we have a rainfall event, like the one possible at the end of this week, I like to have each days total, but then a final total for the entire rain event.  Will it be 0.35" of 8 inches of rain that falls later in the week.  I think the average amount will be around 1.5 inches.  But, I am waiting until tomorrow to see how this pattern is truely setting up.

Thanks for the kind words. 

Gary

Gary,

Thanks for the great information about the impact of the tropical storms on our local weather.  Being that we are landlocked it's interesting to see the impact hurricanes and tropical storms have on our community.

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Sometimes we get a chance at one or two each year.  But, this will be the third or fourth one to affect us.

Gary

lots of rain....lol

don't know about anyone else, but i wouldn't mind if it just dried out for a few weeks. just about the time the mud dries, it rains again... and then here come the (Basset) hounds with their large paws full of mud, tracking it everywhere. i'm hoping TS Lowell doesn't drop anywhere near what that map said it might!!

jeri... grass seed wouldn't help in my case... they'd just trample it and track it in too! lol....

see ya all....

MikeTrainor - I'm with you!  We have three dogs .. . it's JUST starting to dry out some and I saw the "lots of rain" forecast and almost cried!  I'm tired of cleaning carpets!

Gary,

If your predicting dew points up and more tropical weather, and obviously alot of rain is this also going to bring with it any severe storms?

Let's see............
The Shriners car swap meet is this Saturday and Sunday at teh Woodlands. It was sleet, snow and wind in April for the event. They moved it from August to Sept. to  get away from oppresive heat. Now we are looking at tropical rain, hurricane remnants, or whatever else comes out  of the sky? how about some SUNSHINE? It is alot of fun so hopefully the weather cooperates and attendance is good.

Enjoy the great day we have today!

[[[Long blog entry alert! – Last one for awhile]]]

Gary, great blog entry!  I had to do quite a bit of research/thinking about this one.  I love it!

First, as it relates to the rainfall potential – wow!  It seems there will be abundant moisture to work with.  It will be interesting where the exact frontal boundary sets up to see who gets the most rain.  I will kick off the conservative boots and agree that the region could pick up a lot of rain!

I think as usual, there will be a decent regional gradient for rainfall with some very diverse totals.

Second thought – I am surprised with Ike.  I really did not think it would go so far west, but it appears I am wrong, and it will.  I am still holding out for the right hook, but think it will come late in the guidance and will not significantly make a difference.  

Early on, I was bound and determined that this could not be a TX storm – but..alas, it seems it will be.

Yesterday, in the LRC insistence, you wanted to know what specific wave I was looking for.  I mentioned that I had gone into depth in a previous blog.  

Here is where I wrote it –

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/09/03/3372505.aspx

I am in a bit of a quandary right now.  I see evidence of the old pattern.  I see evidence of a new pattern as well.  The quandary is trying to figure out which goes with which.

Here is an example..and this is the specific wave I am looking for.

On August 15th, we had that very odd cutoff low.  Even other mets indicated that it was very odd to see.  To me, that seemed as an anomaly to the old pattern.  Even though, from a path perspective, it could have been thought as a “slideby storm”, something did not seem right to me with it.

So..even with this storm, it could have fit in the old pattern, but it had a twist.  So..I wondered if this “twist” was due to the transition between patterns.  So, I have watched for this to come back.

So, that brings me to my specific example.  I am looking at the models, and I see something interesting.

Here is a week before that cutoff in August:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20080809.html

Here is model prog from the 264 hr view.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_264l.gif

There are strong similarities.  Starting left to right, we see the following…

Strong low in the NE PAC
Strong ridging over the Rockies up into Canada
Shortwave evident within the ridging located over NW Colorado
Strong low north of Great Lakes
Pronounced troughing over east coast

So…first thoughts, could it be the old pattern?  Sure, it seems to want to show a slideby wave out of the Rockies with a mean trough position near the Mississippi river.

Ok..maybe the old pattern.  Or…

I am going to assume that the GFS is going to get this pattern somewhat timed right within 2-3 days.

The first map is August 9th and the second is Sept 20th.  This would be 41 days.  This would not seem part of the past pattern defined between 52-56 days.

So..here is a few days later on the example above…

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20080811.html

and

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_324l.gif

I do not need to explain the similarities in this one, I hope.

This is 42 days apart.

I wonder what we may expect toward the first of October as you believe the new pattern starts?  Perhaps the cutoff the SECOND time around?

I am still thinking the new pattern is about 40-42 days.  I still right now believe what I wrote in the previous blog.

I am going to make a concession.  I do not disagree there are parts of the old pattern going on, but I do believe strongly that the new pattern is showing parts of itself as well.  I am still thinking this is clearly the transition period.

I know you are very strongly rooted in October for the new pattern establishing, and that may be very much the case, but why October?  What happens in October that makes things suddenly change?

I know your thoughts..and know mine are different.  I am asking just to think about it.  

I have much more research to do…and this is likely my last LRC post on the blog for quite awhile, but thought I would go out with a bang!

;-)

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Scott,

I will give your blog comment fair attention after I get the Weather Plus shows recorded.  At first glance I just want to say one thing; yes the pattern is in transition, but strongly related to the old pattern.  And, the pattern evolving now is NOT the new pattern.  The new pattern really kicks in and develops next month.  This is according to my theory, the LRC. But, this does not mean that what happens between now and October 10th is meaningless.  It likely isn't, but I strongly believe the stronger evolution happens later than right now. 

Once again, I will go back and really analyze what you wrote and the graphics a bit later today.

Gary

Hummer... we have mostly wood floors, but carpet in the bedrooms. we keep towels down in front of the patio door, which catches some of it...  and have trained one of the hounds to "wipe her paws" on the towels. she kinda goes in circles while wiggling and waggling. very cute, but not very effective... and she gets the doggie cookie anyway! haha.....

Weather this spring,summer, and whatever the heck it is now seems to be in the inexact science mode for the most part.

Roll the dice and hold your breath.

Lot's of LaUgH'Ssssssssssssssssss

MikeTrainor1:

I have a basset hound, too. Isn't it amazing how they always manage to find the mud, wherever it is? At least if there are puddles on the ground I can try to make her walk through those to help clean off her feet.

Good entry Scott!! I remember the one you tagged on to this one...mainly cause of all the links you put in. Don't stay gone for to long!
Monica

"I know you are very strongly rooted in October for the new pattern establishing, and that may be very much the case, but why October?  What happens in October that makes things suddenly change?"

Scott (and Gary)...this is a difficult argument for either of you to advance well because you haven't proposed any mechanism that causes the LRC to exist.  Without this, it makes it very hard to say that a LRC pattern starts or stops at any particular time. All you can do is try to use pattern-fitting type arguments. So far these ideas have not been tested rigorously enough to prove even the existence of an LRC, let alone to prove that it started in Month A and not Month B.

marlina... how funny. not many hounds out there, but you see'em now and then. what's amazing to me is the amount of mud those paws can hold! lol...

btw... my wife went to the store today on a day off and took the hounds. when she got there, she parked next to a station wagon with - unbelievably - two other bassets in it. she says the barkfest was great fun for all!!

Rdub,

Ha.  I have proposed how I think it all works, and why.  I guess the best archieve of it is on my blog and scattered through the thousands of entries on this blog.

I cannot prove any of it.  No doubt.  But, if you take some time to look at some of what I have provided, you will see I have taken a more quantitative approach utilizing numeric data to show evidence of the LRC.  I currently have some analysis available should you be interested on my blog.  Certainly quantitative pattern comparison is valid..or it would seem valid utilizing regression testing.

I am working on this aspect as well as doing some hypothesis testing as well.  It is all a work in progress to prove.  But - that said, I have seen enough to believe strongly in it and I am doing the number crunching for proof to others.

There are many aspects yet to be discovered with the LRC, as if it were simple, it would have been obvious to everyone prior to Gary finding it.

Gary,

Thanks for the information, and I'll be on it soon.  Since I truly appreciate the value of being asleep at midnight, I was wondering if you could recommend an affordable home weather station that is directly wired to my network.  I have shopped around, checked out consumer reviews and such, but I must believe you have some sort of an opinion on this matter.  If I'm going to do this thing, it won't be halfway.  SE DOCO will be in the house! (Not the homes of 4, 5, and 9, which tend to be shabbily built.)  I have an insatiable interest in accurately measuring wind speeds.  On an open plain, these seem to pick up quite a good head of speed that I am not sure is always accurately conveyed from metropolitan reports.  I've only demolished or repaired a half dozen buildings this year, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't because of localized 30mph winds...

Slade

MikeTrainor - we used to have a lab that would come do the circles on a towel. We do get them on the back porch and clean them - but there are always clumps leftover that get on the floor!  Our beagle has pretty big feet too - sometimes, (well if he's digging for a mole) he gets SO much mud in his front feet that he can't lift them up to get up the steps and we have to go get him!  It's funny!  Baseball size mud and grass clots! But ya gotta love 'em!  Laura

My golden doesn't just get in the mud with her feet. She looked this morning for the biggest mud spot next to the fence and went and laid down in it with her toys.
Amazing how lush the lawn was out back in June when I moved in . I'm sure I need to confine them to the side yard and throw some seed down, just not sure when.

My golden doesn't just get in the mud with her feet. She looked this morning for the biggest mud spot next to the fence and went and laid down in it with her toys.
Amazing how lush the lawn was out back in June when I moved in . I'm sure I need to confine them to the side yard and throw some seed down, just not sure when.

I spread seeds last Tuesday afternoon on my front and they were coming up yesterday afternoon.  I put some on the back Saturday and hope they will be up by the end of the weekend.  Looking at the forecast you could probabaly put the seed today or tommorow and would not have to water them much if any.

regarding grass seed

Now is the time to plant grass seed.  You want as warm of soil temps as possible.  Each day you delay now will delay when the seed comes up and how quickly it will establish.

Thank you.

Sure hope that dosen't shift north.

I will certainly be watching the forecasts! This weekend is starting to look like a wash-out for our camping trip in southwest Missouri. Not real sure if we should go or not.

"Now is the time to plant grass seed.  You want as warm of soil temps as possible.  Each day you delay now will delay when the seed comes up and how quickly it will establish. "

I patched up some holes and overseeded this past weekend.  Mama Nature and her 2.5 inches of rain decided to redeposit the seeds in the pond below my house.   I was doing a bit of cursing on Monday morning.  I can't really afford to spend another $80 on seed so I will probably just repatch the holes and forget the overseed for this fall.

Braysmamma

Know exactly what your saying bout washed out camping trips.  We took ours in early June when it was raining like crazy around here.  We got lucky though, and only got downpoured on one night, good thing for the weather radio too..  We were woke up in just enough time to cover the tent with a tarp.

Hope you don't have to cancel your trip, and you have a great time.

Camping + rainy/bad weather = one heck of an adventure LOL

Stacy N the Gang

5kckmartins

This is our third trip and so far every one has had rain!! I really don't want to rely on the nws forecast, but it's not looking good.

C'mon Gary, give me some good news!!! :)

We have 3 dogs too.  We got so tired of the yard never drying out that we had it all cemented over with colored stamped cement.  We left a 6'x10' area and mulched about 10" deep for "doing their business" and that's it everything else is cement.  It was pricey but by far the best thing we have ever done.  The dogs love it, we love it, works perfectly.  It looks like one giant patio and the stamping makes it look like fieldstone.  The color is an antiqued beige, I was concerned about how it would look with our white vinyl fence but it goes perfectly.  No more making the dogs stay inside, no more cleaning carpets/floors, no more wiping paws at all hours.  It just seems to rain here all the time and we decided it is never going to change.  So until we get to move to Yuma, AZ we'll enjoy our paved yard.
--deb, dave and the gang (Hoss, Popeye and Windy)

Well after 3.24 inches of rainfall here at 130th and State Avenue in KCK just about 36 hours ago, it will be interesting to see what happens later this week with the remnants of Lowell. Looking at some of the latest models on the track of IKE, it looks like it is beginning to take a little more of a right turn. Also looking at the last few shots on satellite it appears to be making a northern jog. That of course I know could be just because of the recent interaction with Cuba, but it will be something worthy of watching. Also latest update out of the NHC shows a more right hook on this storm then the last advisory. I would not be surprised by Friday this storm system to be more towards the TX, LA border possibly?

Bryan

....was waiting for the right hook

As weatherwyco olluded to the nhc has it going toward texas and then when it hits land it curves do north up toward kansas this weekend how interesting it seems like we have been affected by these tropical systems this year in some way or another, it will be interesting to see what happens this weekend.

WOW! Looking at the last 4 frames of the Rapid Scan sure shows some intense convection forming around the “eye” of IKE. Looks like we could quite possibly see a major hurricane by the morning.

Wait.. wasn't everyone just complaining not too long ago about the lack of rain? :P

Braysmamma, we have been trying to go for a few days overnight trail ride since spring.

Had to cancel in May (we were drove out by Tornados!!), and then June more wet weather. July and August was too muggy and buggy. So we rescheduled for September.

I am soooo tired of all this rain. We had an awful winter with too much moisture and then long and cold Spring - had to bale hay 5-6 later than normal. I can't believe this pattern has hung on so long - I want to the next LRC to be dry! So lets see what the weekend brings, but it looks like another canceled trip. I hope Ike goes somewhere else that needs the rain like west Texas.

I have never complained this year from lack of rain - we have had more than suffuciant rain here in La Cygne.

I just looked at the NWS for my zip code. I usually look at it multiple times a day. Well according to them the changes for rain at the end of the week has gone up for us. Of course that does not mean it can't change and go back down just as quickly. We were up at a 50% before noon, now we are up to 60-70% of rain Thursday night through Friday. So it will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer to the end of the week.
Audra in Lee's Summit

"Brent,

What are you going to do when we have our first chance of snow?  Are you ready?

Gary"

lol I will probably dance about in front of the tv when you say the word, and tell everyone I see that day about it, and not stop obsesing about it untill I see it...then I will probably go out and dance in it anyway.....yes I'm a snow lover....

we should make one of those signs...

"you know you are a snow lover if"

I am almost ready..right now I really can't compain at all about this fall weather...its absolutely wonderful.

but as of now..I am fathoming what that 8 inches of rain could be if it was 30 degrees........

Brent

It looks like the trend for Ike is now Northward into Dallas After he possibly hits Texas, but I think it will depend on how fast he moves.

He will soon be traveling over the same area Katrina, and Wilma intinsified into those impressive Category 5 Hurricanes. Didnt Katrina reach winds of 185 mph for a brief time.

Ike is showing some rapid, and impressive development right around the eye, I wonder how long it will take for him to reach major Hurricane status.

Alex

Well the latest 10 PM update from the National Hurricane Center shows that Ike has strengthened a little bit with winds now up to 80 MPH. Cloud tops are cooling and have been for the last couple of hours, so I would still expect to see a significant increase in strength overnight. NHC says models have shifted a bit further south with the latest runs, but I am sure that will change up to the point of landfall. If you take a quick glance at the NHC 5 day map it does show that it might be further west well inland this time. ( As opposed to Gustav). Maybe this would mean the heavier rainfall would stay out of Central and Southern Missouri??? Unfortunately that could mean heavier rainfall for Eastern Kansas and points west. Who knows...Time will tell though!

Bryan

I also have to mention while the global models show a shift to the south, the NHC track does show a slight northern shift to it.

Bryan

gary, you dont see precip on sunday? maybe the 7 day on the internet isnt updated, because it is looking wet on sunday and significantly cooler than what you have.  also, you mentioned earlier to someone that you are seeing signs of a return to average conditions in a couple weeks.  i was wondering where you were seeing this, because i am looking in my normal spots and it would seem that most if not all signs are pointing to an even greater amplification of the jet in the coming weeks.  the cold is really beginning to pool up in canada too.  the north pacific jet over by AK is very amplified as well.  something is going on, dont you think?

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PVT,

High pressure should move in on Sunday.  So the small rain chance looks good that we have.  Also, temps in our forecast are cooler...around 70.

The video forecast may be what you are eluding too.  That is usually updated a few times a day.  So the forecast you watched may have missed out on the updated forecast.

Jeremy

I was just looking through the blog and was suprised to see so many other Basset Hound people. I have two a boy and a girl. I know all about the mud, although mine do not just get it in their feet, they also have one patch of mud that they insist on rolling in. They are both mud head to tail, and it does not help to try and chase them from the mud they just roll hard and make themselve dead weight when you try and pick them up.
We just got the mud pile somewhat dried out so more rain would be dreadful. Rain Rain go away. At least for a little while.

Brent, what WOULD 8 inches of rain be in snow amounts?



Gary, can you have holly give a forecase with a big smile? She is very pretty!