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Wow! Looks like we might have a soggy night for all the Friday night football games!  Don't mind getting rain just don't like the idea of flooding!  That's pretty funny about the rats!  Were you squirming Gary?!!  I had a pet white rat as a child- his name was Pixie.  I think he was named after some cartoon rats of my time- Pixie and Dixie if I'm remembering right.  Dea

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Dea,

These rats were very tame.  But, sort of disgusting.

Gary

Hey Gary, thanks for the great work!  However I think you need to push all that rain elsewhere!  I'm trying to put in an irrigation system, and this rain keeps filling up my trenches creating a muddy mess!!!  I noticed you shifted from 8" to more of 3", I'll continue to watch your updates, but are you leaning a little more to less than more now?  Hopefully!

Thanks again!

-Bill

Hi Gary and weather team,
I have a question regarding dewpoints. Is there a degree where dewpoints top out at? The reason I am asking is that I was having a conversation with my husband last night. he is currently deployed to the middle east and I was telling how amazing the weather here was yesterday and he preceeded to tell me not to rub it and so then I said how today and Thursday were gonna be muggy cause the dewpoint was going up and all.
Well they are having 100+ degree heat there and he said it had a 100% humidity and I know that when the temperature degree and the dewpoint degree are very close to each other number wise you have a higher percentage of humidity.
SO I guess what I am asking is it possible to have a dew point higher than 80. the highest i have seen was the high 70's here in warrensburg.
thank you!!
jamie

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Jamie,

If he is having 100 degree heat, the highest  the dewpoint will likely be is around 75 or so, which would by around 60% humidity.  So, he is just telling you it feels like 100% humidity.

Gary

I realize the Old Farmers Almanac isn't the most reliable source of weather information, but for what it's worth they're talking about "Global Cooling" from "a study of solar activity and corresponding records on ocean temperatures."

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2008-09-09-farmers-almanac_N.htm

Anyway, I'm starting to wonder if this weekends rain event isn't going to cause some serious flooding problems for some parts of our area.  I feel like I've been living in Seattle lately.

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The Old Farmer's Almanac is good for a couple of things.  Gardening tips(if they are still in there) and starting a fire on a cold winter night.

Jeremy 

so what are your thoughts on solar (max and)minimum's jeremy? old farmers almanac  aside, do you recognize the correlation between the frequency of sunspots and global temperatures? i am personally on the fence about it, but atleast there is quantitative evidence to suggest that the earths cooler years emulate the solar minima over the past few hundred years or so...

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I haven't researched the topic enough to take a complete stand on the topic.  But with that said the sun is the driving force of our weather.  When something related to the sun is changed or altered it would make sense that it could have an impact on our weather.  I would look at global temperatures in relation to a sunspot comparison. 

Jeremy

Jeremy you must be a tired man!! You filled in for a couple of days for Gary, did the weekend and now you are filling in for Brett's crazy work hours. Are you up for vacation next, lolol?? The weather feels nice outside, I will take more rain but can certainly understand why the farmers would not want anymore. They do need to get there field work done. Enjoy the day and rest up!!
Monica

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Monica,

I just realized I'm not on a 'normal' schedule until November.  I do have a week off in October...maybe I'll rest then:)

Jeremy

Let it rain.  I just built a brand new pond, and I want it to fill up-ha the more the merrier.  Sorry guys.

What about the weather on Sunday at Arrowhead?  Raincoat & sweater or tank top and short sleeves OR what?

Go Chiefs!

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There is a chance of rain in the Sunday forecast.  We'll keep you updated for the game!

Jeremy

The new GFS sure looks wet over the coming week!

Hey Gary,

That talk about high dewpoints and what they top out at got me digging around on the net.  According to meteorologist Bob Henson, a writer at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and the author of The Rough Guide to Weather,
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, on the Persian Gulf, recorded a dew point of 95°F on July 8, 2003.  That is the highest Td ever recorded worldwide.  The air temperature was 108 F.  That would be horrible to say the least!

I didn't know that!  Good question as 'ol Jeff Vaughn would say!

the 12z gfs suggests widespread 3-5" amounts through sunday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_096l.gif

Any chance this thing could go PooF?? Or maybe move a little more west?

I'm seriously freaking out!!

Basement is still on a waiting list to be fixed. Guess the only good thing is to find out if the 2nd attempt to repair a leak on the new roof is fixed. If not, I'll have a flood in my dining room too. I can handle 2-3 inches in La Cygne, but no more than that. We got over 4 inches from last weeks storms.

If I wanted to live in a wet climate, I would move to the Gulf or Seattle!!!

I managed to get my honey harvested last Sunday before the rain - your forcast was decisive to this process (bees don't like being rained on). This year's harvest was twice what I took off last year. I'll be keeping an eye on your next LRC. I now have a base-line LRC for the "good honey year" 2 miles South of Reno!

P.S. Looks like you need some new pest control to go with that new studio of yours.

So I guess the old man will be snoring this weekend, won't he? Well I just hope the rain holds of until at least 1:00 tomorrow. Oh well. What do you think about an earlly freeze this year? i have a feeling winter will show its self this October and end in the early part of march.

Will it be as cold as it was when Gustav brought us that rain? Gary, I have had pet rats as pets. you can choose to believe this one if you want but they are sort of like small dogs except you have to keep them in cages, I had one of mine potty trained, she was always so excited to see me and gave me licks on my face, her name was Ratti, appropriately. LoL, but as rats do she got cancer. =(

I find it hard to believe a 95 degree dewpoint with a temperature of 108 degrees.  That would be a heat index of 176 degrees.  I don't believe that the solar radiation reaching the surface contains enough energy to create that apparent temperature in an open environment.  My guess is that this reading was obtained in an enclosed area(walls, no roof, a ravine, or the like), the thermometer was in direct sunlight, or there was a malfunction in the equipment.

Jeremy - so looking at that colorful map, it looks likethe heavy rain will be more southeast of the city? How FAR southeast?  (I'm pretty geographically challenged in case you hadn't already figured that out!) - and IF you're wrong, would you be wrong on the high side or the low side of the amounts?  I know that's asking a lot - I won't slander your good name or anything if you're wrong - just wondered your gut guess!  Thankyou.  Laura

I kept trying to find out more information on this record dewpoint temperature. The reading was taken at the airport in Dhahran, SA ICAO identifier OEDR.  I do not know where the observing station there lies with respect to topography, with the exception that the airport is just inland of the Persian Gulf.  I found the meteogram from that day with the included link below.  Of course, the disclaimer that observations are not "official NWS values" is present.  

Wikipedia cites another meteorologist, Christopher C Burt, who has written a book on global extremes that contends these data are possible.  Reading the area of the book in question, Burt contends that sea temperatures in excess of 90 F provide no cooling affect on coastal communities and goes on to state that HI values near this high are common in Somalia (150 F).  He does provide compelling qualitative and semi-quantitive reasoning to the possibility of a 172 F HI.  I too didn't believe it possible when I first did a general search, but Burt's analysis is some interesting reading, and at the absolute least gives something to think about.  I have included the link to his book below the meteogram link.        

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/OEDR/2003/7/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

http://books.google.com/books?id=NuP7ATq9nWgC&dq=extreme+weather+a+guide+%26+record+book&printsec=frontcover&source=web&ots=4J6MZ9mIed&sig=072E15wny3Si3PGl3V6fkQnMrR0#PPA28,M1

All I know is that I don't want that 10.5" bullseye to move farther north.  Thats a ridiculous amount of rain.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Ok...... What's the out-look for tomorrow mornin thru the afternoon, say 2ish?
I've got concrete to be poured in the mornin.

Thanks all for a great blog. I check this place everyday. Great info to plan my days around.

But if I can't get this garage floor,sidewalk poured tomorrow......I'm goin to have to wait till who knows when.......Arrrrrgh!

Riverguy, If you do get your concrete poured tomorrow won't the rain Thursday night, Friday, etc be bad for it. I know that concrete needs moisture so it doesn't dry too fast and crack but isn't too much moisture just as bad?
I think we can all agree it will be interesting to see how all this rain pans out. I for one am not going to get too worried/excited about it because too many time storms have moved, split, not panned out, etc in the past. Don't we usually get at least one severe storm around Labor day that has the potental for tornados? I seem to remember hearing or reading about that.
Audra

Weatherfreak

As long as it gets finished and cover with plastic....then no probs.

Greetings from damp Stephenville, Texas.  Forecast trends are taking Ike's path farther east with each run.  This morning it looked like the center of Ike would pass directly over Stephenville Sunday A.M. as a tropical storm. The latest run has the center passing about 1 or 2 counties to the east and passing through the west side of Fort Worth.  Still expecting winds here as high as 50 m.p.h. with Ike's passing, along with 3-4" of rain.  Tornado threat is decreasing here, though.  Ike is moving more slowly than earlier predictions thought, and this is allowing the western trough to progress farther east before Ike is picked up by it.  If these trends continue, KC does not have to fear excessive rains from Ike as the center will pass much too far to the SE of KC.  Also, if Ike moves a few more counties to the east than current thinking indicates, Stephenville will escape any major impacts from the storm.  It will be interesting to see if the eastward trend in the path continues, because then it becomes a huge threat to Houston and points east.

Here's a link to the Fort Worth NWS office showing their current thinking w/r/t Ike's expected effects on Texas:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/

as it stands now, kc is still in the heavy rain part of the track...in fact, moreso than before.  the NW side of the storm will interact with the trough which will be set in place due to the remnants of lowell, the track hasnt changed much once it comes inland because the concentration gradient inland isnt going to change...it will be along the trough.  so yes, things will be different down by the coast with the slower solution, but the heaviest rain will still fall from central ok into eastern ks and ne towards the mo/ia border.

as far as dfw, i would only expect those 50mph winds in gusts associated with outer bands, TX gains elevation very quickly the further west you go, unlike FLA.  so there will be very rapid weakening.  once the core moves in it will likely just be a good rainmaker with isolated tornadoes and flooding rain the main threats.  3-4" is a conservative amount for the dfw area.  

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Pvt Murphy,

Watch Lowell as he tracks across Baja tonight into the Gulf of California.  This disturbance could hold together, and it is timed for Friday night?

Gary

I was living just west of DFW in 1983 when hurricane Alicia made landfall as a minimal Cat 3 storm near Houston.  Around 18 hours later we had northerly wind gusts of 35-40 mph as the center of Alicia passed about 30 miles east of my location.  If Ike can build to a strength greater than Alicia's at landfall, then wind gusts around 50 mph in areas near DFW that are east of Ike's center are certainly possible, given Ike's increasing forward speed after landfall, which will add momentum to the wind speeds to the right of the storm's path.

With respect to the elevation gain in Texas, Ike's path will take it mostly north after landfall, and the center should stay east of the Texas Hill Country.  This part of Texas is considered to be part of the Coastal Plain and is very low in elevation.  That said, the elevations above sea level in the DFW area are in the 600 to 700 foot range.  That elevation change is about equivalent to the height of the tallest building in downtown Dallas, so it's not much compared to, say, the mountains of Hispaniola or Mexico.  But it is certainly greater than the elevation in Florida.

Lowell's circulation will certainly not survive its trek over Mexico's Sierra Madre, but mid and high level moisture from the storm, combined with its remnants' position on the east side of an upper air trough and abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming north, will trigger copious rainfall over parts of West Texas, Oklahoma, and NE from there toward KC.  I still don't believe Ike will bring heavy rain to KC, unless the western trough slows and allows Ike to move farther west.  The next few days will be interesting, in any event.

I thought this was interesting...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98ewbg.gif

JP

A correction - the lowest elevation ASL around the city of Dallas is actually closer to 400 feet, rather than 600 feet.  The highest elevations around Forth Worth are around 800 feet ASL.  Elevation generally increases as one moves west from Dallas to Fort Worth.

Hope you guys don't get too much rain from Lowell's remnants, I'm told the basement where I live in KC is already wet from Monday's rain of about three inches in the Northland.  Alright, gotta get back to analyzing oilfield data....

There was a lot of sun today. I don't know if I want rain, just lots of thunder and dark skies during peroids of the day, im glad the total amount forecast was lowered! Will it might go back up possibly?

Did a front go through?  It was very warm and then all of the sudden it turned really cloudy and really cool.  It feels much better now!

HailJonathan, my pet white rat got cancer too!!  I  was only a child and my mom and dad thought I wouldn't understand cancer so they told me at the time he died of the mumps!  ( His tumor was on his cheek ), then later my brother got the mumps and I was scared he was gonna die!  Dea

I have been getting some light to moderate showers off and on already. Hmmmmm is it a sign of things to come?? :o)
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Mmmhhh...we were going to play mini-golf with friends on Friday night, but now I'm thinking that's going to be a wash out. But then again, I could use the rain for an excuse as to why my ball never makes it in the hole! =)

Still debating on going camping. Gary, does it look like the heaviest rains will fall north of 1-44? We are camping down in southwest MO near the Arkansas boarder. (Roaring River State Park)

3/10's of an inch in the rain gage in the last 2 hours here in Nortwest  Leavenworth, and humid as all get out, kind of a low laying fog forming too

hurricane watch texas coast and southwest tip of louisiana coast I hope the hurricane is not as bad as it supposed to be.

we are getting a nice soaking right now, started probably 10 minutes ago.