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Just had one here in Lee's Summit!

Heck ya! Shoal Creek got some! Where did that come from?

Got a quick half inch in La Cygne.

I'm not happy about this. :(

I think we may have gotten a quick downpour in Mission, but I'm not sure. I took my dog out and was surprised by how many big puddles had suddenly appeared around.

Is it just me or has the humidity went sky high?  It feels like the temp has risen in the last couple hours.

Yep, It's humid. Bugs are making all kinds of racket along with the tree frogs (I like their chirps). Dewpoint is 67% percent and 70 degrees.

Yea just had one at Line Creek Park...was there for a pep rally and got SOAKED!!  Hubby is riding back from Richmond on the bike....better him than me LOL..JK

"Is it just me or has the humidity went sky high?"

Oh yeah.  I went for a run about 5 pm and it was nice and cool and about halfway through I could feel the humidity come on.  We didn't have any tropical downpours.  Light, steady rain for about a 1/2 hour. .10 inch here in Beautiful SE Leavenworth Co.

Current... 85% humidity and 70 degrees.  Very nice evening.  I'm sure if this was April, we'd all be complaining about the stickiness, but it feels good in early September.

We had a nice big downpour earlier today here at 169 and Barry!  I opened my windows to listen to the rain.

I could go without the flooding,  but I think I'm going to sleep like a baby in the coming nights!  Crack the window and listen to the rain... You gotta turn something like this into a positive somehow... Right?

Gary,

Tonight you showed KC getting ~4 inches of rain thru Saturday, but what is the chance that all comes in a short period or more over an extended period like we had last week with the remains of Gustav. That was rain all day and night, but it wasn't huge downpours. I know the rain amounts were a lot less with that event, but I am leaving town this weekend and am re-thinking my plans in case the basement floods from too much rain at one time.

I think the basement and I can handle 4 inches spread throughout 3 days, but getting 3 inches of the 4 in 2-3 hours will cause some problems.

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I will try to figure this part of the forecast out on Thursday.  This is a great question.  There is a big difference between this and what happened with Gustav.  Gustav had a cold September air mass in place.  This set-up for the next few days is more tropical.  So, we could be in 2 inch per hour downpours. 

Gary

Thanks Gary for your response. I will be tuned to this blog and NBC tomorrow to get the latest.

FYI--For people like me who are at work all day and sometimes into the evening when you are on at 5 & 6 this blog is all we have, so the more you share your thoughts, especially with events like these, the better people like me can understand what is going to happen. Even if it is a sentence or two, the updates really help--well until there is LIVE streaming coverage of NBC Action News.

That will probably happen when Jack runs Carl Peterson out of town, so hopefully in the next year or so---I kid, I kid

Wow, after a one day break in the streak... we got more rain this evening, it started just minutes after I finished mowing today, what an unbelievable twist this weather pattern is throwing us in that it is a very cool pattern but in the end it is making us the target for more tropical systems than I can remember hitting and/or threatening us in one summer, go figure.  Now we are in a humid and damp air mass awaiting to see what is next.

Gary:

Good humid cloudy morning to you sir!!! It has been forever since I have been able to check in-and man I have to say I really miss this Blog!!! I have taken on several new duties at school that are administrative in nature so school has monopolozied most of my time since early August. There have been so many times the past few weeks I have wanted write in (the front last week with Gustav etc...) but just never had time to really look at things and didn't want to make myself look more foolish than usual LOL!!!

Don't have much to really add this morning either, of any real importance as I have just had time to barely scan things but I htink it will be interesting from many standpoints to watch the next 6 days unfold. How much rain will we get from tropical Interaction part I and then what will Ike do in Texas as well as how will he affect us in Tropical Interaction Part II (Just when you thought it was safe..)

I think one thing in the back of my mind especially regarding Ike is that the models have so much information to ingest in the next 5 days that it will be tough to really nail down specifics. I.E. the heavey rain shield this week may shift 50-60 miles with different runs or be a bit diffderent than what they have currently and what Ike does after making landfall will be really tough to get a handle on right now. It seems now that the latest GFS runs kind of want to cut him off and he kind of gets stuck meandering around the Southern Plains where as the Euro quickly jets him off into Tennesee by Monday. So much to watch.....

A second thing: It appears that after we get through the Tropical Interactions Part I and II staring Ike and Lowell that we really dry out for a few weeks and go into a kind of late summer type pattern which of course it is late summer LOL. However, as this is happening, cold air is beginning to build in NE Canada as it appears a vortex develops over the Hudson Bay-could that be stting things up...

How in the world did I type this much-I swear I was just going to say hello this morning-I have looked so little at things that I hope I have not made myself look foolish!!! Have a great day and as always, thanks for reading!!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

This is a short entry for you, come on. LOL 

Anyway, the 06z GFS trended strongly to IKE being picked up in the flow. I lean in the ECMWF's direction as most forecasters are doing.  This is anything but certain at this time.

Before we even worry about IKE we could get a lot of rain with the connection to Lowell.  After this rain we will need a break, and it looks like the pattern will bring one our way.

Gary

If anyone doesn't mind, what is our average rainfall for this point in the year and where are we actually at?  I am looking forward to fininding out how and if Ike will affect us.  Only because it looks like we are a distant bullseye.  
Thanks all
Audrey

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Audrey,

We are at just over 31 inches and average is around 28 inches.  I will add this to the beginning of the new blog in a little while.

Gary

Do you really think Ike could make landfall as a Category 5?  It seems the NHC puts those odds somewhere around 1% or maybe 2%...seems much more likely to be a Category 3 at landfall according to their probabilities...

In any event, it appears as though Houston could get socked.  

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Notes,

Obviously we hope it is not a category 5 at landfall, or a category 4 for that matter. Conditions are very favorable for Ike to intensify today.  Let's see what he does.  I am expecting Ike to be a Category 3 at landfall.

Gary

I looked at the GFS and NAM for the 06 UTC and does the NAM show a little more wetness solution than the GFS?  I want to make sure I'm reading the charts correctly, I do believe they both agree we will get precipitation.  thank you, Alan

Gary,

I have been tracking Ike on the NOAA website, and as of Thursday morning, there is only a 2% chance of it developing into a Cat 5 hurricane before hitting the Texas coast.  And, only a 14% chance of it being a Cat 4.  Thats just 16% of Cat 4 OR 5.  Should you be "hyping" the storm as one that could be that strong?  What has the storm shown, or signs in the gulf that would make you think this would be a Cat 5?  It's pretty well accepted that its going to be a Cat 3 when it makes landfall.  Yes, still very powerful but hardly a Cat 5 level.

Your thoughts?  Thanks,
Tim

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Tim,

I understand what you are saying.  It likely will stay under a category 5, but I think the chance of a category 4 is more like 35%.  So, this is why I mentioned it this morning.

Gary

can we get a blog update on the rain amounts to expect?