NBC Action Communities

Good morning Gary---I will let you know Berryton's rainfall after this event is over.  It should be interesting.  I am looking forward to a dry second half of Sept.  Also I am looking forward to the new LRC set-up.  Over the past couple of weeks I recorded around an inch and a half.  This should be a interesting weather pattern for several days.  Take care,

Michael/Berryton/Kansas

-------------

Michael,

Keep us updated.  Have a great day.

Gary

Hi Gary ...

you really think it'll be in the 60s next Tuesday ?
you must be taking the gfs operational runs at 5 days leadtime.  Neither the gfs ensemble mean, nor any ECMWF operational or ensemble-mean runs lately, suggest conditions anywhere near that cool.  And for that matter neither do the NOGAPS/UKMET/Canadian solutions.  I'll bet if you tracked skill scores from the medium-range gfs ops runs, you'll find that they have performed relatively poorly in recent weeks.  Some of this has to do with its chronically improper initialization of tropical systems.  And very recently, GFS has shockingly mishandled Ike ... from failing to capture its growth to poorly predicting its track.  As you know, if a global model can't  assimilate the tropics reasonably well, then its midlatitude projections will accumulate large errors in the medium range, especially if the discrepancies in its analysis are in sensitive regions where downstream error growth is most rapid.   This is the scenario now, with Ike.  It appears unlikely that the GFS operational runs from last night will verify ... and hence, more likely that Tuesday will be in the 70s.

*******************

Personally all models have overdone the temperatures for almost everyday this month.  So I think our forecast in the 60s is just fine right now.  I would be that almost no model was forecasting 60s for highs three days out for any day this month that actually recorded a high in the 60s.  So I think our forecast at this moment that includes 60s is very reasonable.  The models have a lot of trouble putting 60s in the forecast this time of year when climatology is still around 80.  No doubt the GFS has its issues at times.

Jeremy

Gary, looks like the rain is  all heading to the Southeast of KC metro.

***************

Best chance of the steadier or heavier rain through early-mid afternoon is southeast of KC.  Focus shifts more north later today and Friday.

Jeremy

Bring on the rain...I am ready!! I have my fancy CoCoRaHS rain guage that I LOVE.....and that cool calendar on the website that keeps track of my daily rain amounts. It sure is humid out, I want to turn on my AC cause I feel so sticky but I also do not want to be a wuss. A nice rain is falling as I write. Have a great day. I hope your roof and basement survive Farmgirl!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

---------------

Monica,

I have one of those raingauges too.  It can handle up to 11 inches of rain.  Keep us updated.

Gary

Hi Jeremy,

Actually the ECWMF "mos" (it's actually a tad more complicated than that) has been far superior to the GFS lately (1.5-2 degrees per day in the RMS over 15 days, with a much more reasonable bias that's 2 degrees per day closer to verification in the 15-day average).  I don't have statistical surface output from the other global models, but from comparison with the upper level charts, the GFS has been the poorest performer.  But more importantly, in next week's case, it's the pattern differences among the models that present the challenge.  The outlier GFS ops runs have rain/clouds (in a shallow marine boundary layer with little vertical mixing)the backside of IKE.  The rest depict more sun, and a deeper boundary layer with 850 temps in the +14 range.  It's all about Ike in this case.

****************

Ike will play a big role.  But also if we get a lot of rain in the next few days the soils will be saturated next week and could keep temps a little cooler too.  Lots of things to think about.

Jeremy

Hope you all in the KC area don't have too much flooding tomorrow and Saturday from Lowell's moisture.  It is looking like a good setup for excessive rainfall in the KC area.  Down here in Texas, Ike's forecasted path is now about 120 miles east of where it was forecast to be at this time yesterday.  IF this path turns out to be correct, or the storm moves even farther east than its current forecast, it would seem there is little chance for Ike's deep moisture reaching KC on Monday.  But if the forecast is wrong and Ike ends up to the west of its current forecast track, then perhaps KC will get some rain from Ike's remnants.  On its current forecast track and if Ike strengthens to Cat 3 at landfall, Houston is going to take a heavy blow, which will be bad for gas prices.  Fort Worth NWS is forecasting wind gusts of 45-60 mph on the east side of Dallas as Ike's center passes late Saturday night, with 35-45 mph gusts across the rest of the DFW area.

Gary - Jeremy, is the flooding concern because it is going to rain 2+ inches in an hour to two?

Is the current trend still showing 3.55 inches for La Cygne with higher amounts to the NW?

********************

I wouldn't focus on the 3.55" total.  You could see much more than this or around 1-2".  I would say 2-4"+ is a good bet for your location though.

Jeremy

I had close to 4 inches last week in La Cygne without major flooding, but worried if it comes down at a fast torrential clip, I'll see flooding on the farm. :(

I was reading the comments and had to just laugh at Mamaof3girls comment about not wanting to be a wuss and turning on the air.  Well, guess I'm a big wuss!  I turned it on this morning--just couldn't take the stale air:)  By the way, I'm a Mama of 3 girls myself, they are 10, 9 and 7. I'm looking forward to some good rain too.  It's still pretty dry here in west Olathe and I'm wanting to see it green back up a little more.  It's sprinkling right now.  Have a great day!  Going to finish watching the 11am news.  Janet

Wthrlvr...I caved and turned on the AC so I am a wuss, LOLOL!! Great ages for your girls...mine are 7,5 and just about age 3. Enjoy the rain.
Hang in there FarmGirl, I think the rain is spread out over a few days not all in one shot.
Monica

Gary,

What makes you think that Ike could be a cat 4 or cat 5?  According to the National Hurricane Center/NOAA:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151313.shtml?table#contents

There is only a 1% chance of a Cat 5 and a 13% chance of a Cat 4.  Unless something changes dramatically, it'll stay a cat 3.

Your thoughts?
Tim

------------------

Tim,

The water is very warm, there is a nice anticyclone to the north and northeast preventing any shear, and I just think it will strengthen later today.  I am not saying it will for sure be a category 4 or 5.  I think it will be a category 4, and I am fairly certain it will be a category 3.  But, to get to 5, well, let's hope not.

Gary

12z gfs now rapidly accelerates Ike away from us on Sunday, like other guidance (including NHC official track)  has been showing for some time.   Once again, a tropical system has exposed serious flaws in the GFS prediction system.  It's dangerous enough to take a 5 day GFS forecast as a perfect prog, let alone when a hurricane is nearby.  

Well according to Jeff Masters "Category 2 Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina" which sounds like a nightmare to me.  Apparently, NOAA's wave models have 13 meter or 42 foot waves on a small section of IKE by tomorrow, but luckily those are in the gulf still.  However, it sounds like 15-20 foot storm surge is real possibility for some areas of Texas.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1080&tstamp=200809

air come on in this house. I couldn't take the humidity being pregnant and having a 18 month crawling all over me. I felt sticky and gross. oh well hopefully it will go off later.

nice steady rain here. no rain gauge though so not sure what we are getting.

I know many of you here visit my long range weather page and my blog.  Thos who do may also know my daughter has been waiting for a liver transplant for 4 years now.  I'm proud to say we got the call Tuesday morning and she has her new liver.  She is resting comfortably and her outlook is wonderful.  I was the winner of the KSHB summer temperature forecast where I won Snow Creek tickets.  I want everyone to know those tickets will go towards an auction/raffle to be held at a benefit for Heather in late October.  

-------------------

Gary B, 

This is great news.  And, I will have your prize ready next week.  Do you want to come to the station to pick it up, or do you want me to mail it to you?

Gary L

Rather humid out there.

Gary B that is the best news of the day!!!!!!!! So glad to hear all is well. I can not imagine the pain and worries you all have gone through for your daughter. Congrats to you and thank goodness for people willing to donate there organs. Enjoy the day and good luck with the recovery Heather.
Sincerely,
Monica

Great News GaryB..I am so glad your prayers have been answered.

Looking forward to the rain today through Saturday and the beautiful weather to follow.

Looks like Ike may not interupt the Chiefs opening day!

Any new thoughts Jeremy or Gary on IKE?

Go Chiefs!!!


JP

Here in derxel, it has been raining fairly hard since early this morning, haven't checked the gauge yet, but I would say 1/2 inch or so. My aunt and uncle called a while ago and said they were planning to leave port arthur tx. Wow, Ike is a huge storm! I was just wondering what is the footprint of Ike?

Well, decided to take a chance on camping. Hopefully the heaviest rain will fall north of us-I'd hate to pack up everything in the middle of the night because of flooding.

garyB,
Congrats on your daughters new liver! I can't imagaine what I would have gone through if that happened to one of my children. I can't help but stop and think of the family who selflessly donated their loved ones organs so that others may live. Having been the recieptent of donated blood that saved my life, I can only imagaine how grateful you are to the family that donated the liver. So for me, a little prayer will go out to you and to that family who's loss has given hope to so many. Thank you to all who have donated vital items needed so others may live! You are rays of sunshine in the lives of so many.
Audra

p.s. I put out a heavy stock pot out on the deck at 6 a.m. this morning so I can measure how much rain we get. I figure it is heavier and has a lower profile in case it gets windy. It will be interesting to see how much rain we get and if Ike does come up and tag us. One of these days I will go out and get a real rain gauge, I just have not done it yet though.

I know that we are under a flood watch but did anyone elses midland radio not go off for this watch. My radio did not go off when the watch was issued and I my yellow watch light is not on. I was just wondering if a signal is sent to the radios when a flood watch was issued or if they only go off for flash flood watches, warnings, etc.
Audra in Lee's Summit

Weatherfreak01 -

I do not believe that the EAS is activated for Flood Watches. I know for sure that it will go off when a flood/flash warning is issued. But I have never seen mine go off for Flood Watches. That also goes for Winter Storm Watches. Never seen it occur.

Bryan

PS: Still waiting on the substantial rainfall! ; -)

It seems Ike is finally figuring out it is time to right hook.  From Brownsville path to E Texas...that is about right.

Silly models.

As far as rainfall..sigh..plenty of it in the region it seems...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif

I wonder about the normal pattern coming up.  By rights it should be normal..since..well..it would be normal?  I am not convinced it will be normal, but I will take that thought with me on my island.

LOL

Thanks weatherwyco,
I am happy our sleep was not interrupted by the alarm when the watch was issued at 4 a.m. I keep my radio plugged in and on 24/7/365 just in case. I do worry about it wearing out from always being, on the ready, so to speak though. I do have back up systems in place in case the radio ever fails or if I am not home when something comes up. It is fun for me to see which happens first, the cell phone goes off with a weather text message or the radio goes off upstairs with the same message. I have this fear that we will go under a tornado warning when I am shopping, or at the movies, etc. and not know. That is why I signed up for watches, warnings, etc to be sent to my cell phone, just in case.
Audra

Congrats to your family and your daughter that is very good news.  Here is to a speedy recovery.
Just went for a walk, really not to bad of a day up here so far... just cloudy and humid, but that area of rain to our south is shifting north and some T-storms are forming on the boundary to our northwest in Neb.

Gary B. - Best of luck to your daughter-wishing her a speedy recovery- that's fantastic news!  Dea

That is great news GaryB.   She will feel so much better in a short time and get that energy back to normal.    They really have come a long way in matching organs and the success rates are very high.     Please keep us updated on how she does.

I feel for you farmgirl.   All this rain heading your way is the last thing you need.   Seems like you have had a bullseye over your house for the last few months.   Glad the roof is fixed at least.   Good luck with this next round and may you only have muddy pastures.  

Joe

from what I am reading about Ike, it seems to be a real odd ball of a storm, as strong as a "major hurricane" but the wind has not increased in speed but is increasing in coverage, this thing is just fascinating I just hope that they are not right about the storm surge.

ike isnt looking very impressive, imo.  first of all the minimum central pressure continues to rise, and, it is getting sheared out.  sure, the shear is causing the windfield to elongate, but that doesnt mean the storm is a major storm, it just means it covers a larger area.  we will see about the storm surge forecasts...

i am just mad that gas is about to jump to its highest price ever in the coming days and the storm isnt even strong enough to damage refineries.  :(

once again, the consumer is getting screwed, the oil companies will profit once again!

to add onto my last comment, ike will be a strong cat 2/weak cat 3(at best) at landfall.    im starting to question the you-can-never-overhype-a hurricane- stance i took a while back with gustav.  

Is anyone going to do a blog update to show new estimates for rain totals?  If we get more than a couple inches, our basement will be flooded and I don't want to deal with that!  Braysmama - what are things looking like out by us now?  Laura

i doubt the will rise much at all... let's talk come wed next week

"am just mad that gas is about to jump to its highest price ever in the coming days and the storm isnt even strong enough to damage refineries.  :(

once again, the consumer is getting screwed, the oil companies will profit once again!"

garyb- that is great. thinking about your family and recovery. congrats.

So I have a question, i know nothing about lawns. Our lawn got fertilized today between the steady rain we have had. Will it do anything with all the rain we are getting?

Look at the rainfall on radar this afternoon. Sure looks like it has a sharp cutoff to the north, basically right along I-35. I have been watching this move north all day, but looks like it is getting a little ragged on the edges. Are we still expecting the widespread rainfall amounts that were anticipated earlier today and last night?

Bryan

I don't think IKE has musch potnetial to get to a cat. 4 now. He still isn't close to a 3 with winds at a meager 100mph. Good news to those in texas, but something just seems to be keeping Ike at a 2. The steady rain has stayed notably south. Will this have an impact on how much rain the metro will see?

Hummerseeker-it's been raining for a while now. The rain gauge has .40 in it at my house. Hopefully we won't get soaked while camping. :(

Did Gustav churn up the gulf current just enough to keep Ike from strengthening?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p60_108m.gif

This doesnt look good for our area and down to the south.

tornado warning for branson!!  WOW.  Jim in Clinton

So Far Jhonson county Executive Airport is .53" of rain today! How much snow would we get if it were just a little later in the season and it got cold enough to snow?

VdoManZ,

check out the link:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices;_ylt=AuEF.TnmFlrlZ.zIjdaQViqAsnsA

"We're looking at the highest wholesale prices ever for a huge swath of the country," he said. "People understand that regardless of what happens with Ike, it's going to shut down the biggest refining cluster for a period of five, six, seven days."

'Wholesale prices are what refineries charge retailers. Retailers then mark up those prices for the customer to make a profit — so if these wholesale prices hold, it could mean that pump prices for U.S. drivers easily break through the July 17 record of $4.114 a gallon.'

I do think my rain total will be less than expected. Seems the heavier bands are just a little to my north and west. I had .13 last night and so far today I have .51. I will take it though!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Looks like alot of rain is heading our way.   Lets hope Ike stays far enough south that we just get a glancing blow.   Central and souther MO looks to be hardest hit...again.

Web briefing from NWS at 3pm:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=weatherbrief_2

pvt_murphy, you're so right.  If the Galveston Bay refineries get flooded and shut down for several days gas prices will spike.  Who remembers the big gas price spike when Katrina made landfall?  As I recall, that was the first time gas prices exceeded $3/gallon.  It only lasted a couple of days, but what a shock it was then.  Today it seems funny in a sobering kind of way.  Wholesale gasoline prices rose 9 cents a gallon today while crude oil prices fell more than $1 per barrel, a clear indication of the market's fear of what Ike may do to the refineries.

Braysmama....looks like you might float away on your camping trip. Are ya still going??  Check out the web link that radman22 listed. Which by the way is pretty neat, I like that!!
Monica

The good news is Ike is not becoming the major hurricane everyone feared and now appears unlikely to become one.  Its central pressure is rising and the western side of the storm is clearly being eroded by inclusion of drier air.  The best scenario is Ike does not strengthen or weakens further, turns to the north sooner than expected, and its center passes east of Galveston, like Rita did in '05.

looks like the rain does not want to push north into the northland

I filled up the tank today for $3.45 a gallon... the lowest it will be for a while.

Ike is hitting the worst place in terms of refineries that produce gas.  Houston is the 4th largest city and that will lead to massive shortages in the area as people flock north.  Lets hope Ike stays at its current strength and biggest concern will be the tidal surge.   Either way, gas will be going up short term and we all know how slow it takes to trickle back down.   The cut by OPEC will not help either.  

Glad I work at home  :)

yah I am not too worried about the oil. they pumped up gustav too with scare tactics like what you just posted. I wish I remember what I read but is said be very afraid of gas prices. Katrina went up pretty quick but didn't take to long to recover either. I know Houston has the major refineries but I don't see it be a long issues.

I guess being at home helps me though. I fill-up my car maybe twice a month. So I guess I am not worried. I will just make sure the cars are filled up.

Total thus far today for Emma, MO is .32" of very slowly accumulating rain.

Walt Snyder

Just a note on gas prices.  This morning I saw it at $3.32 (MO side) on the way home tonight it had already gone up to 3.40 to 3.49 a gal.  

Glad the weather is going to be nice next week!  Might have to break out the bicycle to get to work if Ike does mess with the refineries.

Mamaof3girls-yes, we are going to try it!! We are leaving early in the morning and stay Friday and Saturday night. Depending on what Ike does, maybe Sunday night too. As long as it's just me and my husband and our ponchos, I think we'll be ok. I have been keeping an eye on the local tv stations and they seem to think ( at last I heard) that there will a break in the precip.

Gary, do you have any thoughts on precip totals in southwest MO?

What did Gary say at 6:00 for rainfall totals?? I saw the 5:00 news cast and it sounded like the model was all over the place

Good afternoon....0.44" of rain over here in East Lawrence.

Ray

Will5304 -  if you are in the metro anywhere it looked like from .90 to 1.30. So who knows


As for 130th and State Avenue in KCK I have received .33.

Bryan

He lowered the totals to 2-3" through the metro.   It is really still up in the air as the moisture is there and the disturbance with the cold front may intinsify the rain.  The totals were through Saturday, so he stressed it will not be a major flooding event as earlier thought.  

At 7:30, Watching the radar, the rain shield is having a hard time staying organized or moving north, seems the MO river on the MO side is the cut off.  .31 in SW Grain Valley and only .06 at KCI, I'm beginning to wonder if the Flash Flood Watch by the NWS was prematurely issued. Guess we still have a couple of days for something major and more widespread to develop. Gary I didn't get to watch your evening weather, what are your feelings about this?

Jeff

doesn't look very impressive Gary...the totals are going down by the minute too...lol but I guess thats good news..although I was hoping for some excitement around here..like a lot of rain..lol

Brent

Is there a dome of dry air over the K.C. meto, or what??!!  I've been watching this all day.  It's like there is a brick wall that the rain runs in to.  I have this feeling we are not going to get much rain here.

hey all...

i'm a big fan of the blog and wanted to share a few vids i shot while down in morgan city, la. of hurricane gustav.

i went down there with the soke purpose of encountering my very first hurricane and relishing in all its awesome fury. i arrived at the airport august 30th and got back to kc last thursday. i drove down to grand isle, only because my hotel was shut down saturday because of the evacuation, saturday evening and spent all day on the beach sunday without a soul to be scene. drove up northwest towards I-90 sunday afternoon. i knew i wanted to be somewhere between houma and franklin. so i ended up in morgan city and luckily checked into a room at the only motel/hotel that i had seen open in the last 24 hours. gustav rolled in on monday morning and was its strongest between 11-1:00pm. i ended up in a residential neighborhood, a few blocks away from the motel, protected by a carport open to the south as the wind and rain was coming from the north.

tuesday through wednesday drove around the south-central part of louisiana taking pics of the destruction. baton rouge was definitely ground zero for the brunt of gustav's winds. wednesday afternoon i was driving towards ospelousas when i pulled over to take some pictures and noticed shingles falling from the sky. there were tornado warnings being posted all day so it only took me a second to realize what was happening. as i looked around at the clouds trying to find the tornado more debris was raining down. i didn't see the actual tornado as i heard later it had touched down briefly a few miles south of where i was located. despite the near miss and not actually encountering a tornado, on top of my first hurricane, i did get a great picture of a huge piece of sheet metal descending from the sky, as if it were a piece of paper floating down to the floor, nearly missing my rental car by a few feet. thankfully i had purchased car rental insurance so i wasn't too concerned.

you will have to copy/paste these links because i'm not computer saavy enough to do the whole hyperlink thing. each video is only a minute long so it won't take too much of your time. once i get the pics organized i'll post the link to those as well.

btw, the experience was an adventure from beginning to end and i wouldn't hesitate to do it again.

enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24t4GImyq-E

http://www.youtube.com/v/_BCtxR3nzqE&hl=en&fs=1

http://www.youtube.com/v/iWDyagIzP6E&hl=en&fs=1

Well, this stinks! But I am not surprised! :( I really dislike KC weather!

.4 inches so far in La Cygne.

I'm curious as why NOAA has my area receiving the heaviest rain Saturday night - they are stating 1-2 inches. While tomorrow is 3/4 to inch. Is this when Lowell is suppose to be overhead or Ike????

Question regarding Hurricane Ike. The National Weather Service has stated that those who remain behind "face certain death." This apparently is due in part to the size of the hurricane--some 700 miles across.

How does the size of Ike compare to the size of Katrina?

interesting, the area of rain to the south is now dissipating but the area of thunderstorms over central/northeast Ks. seems to be slowly growing, looking at the ir loop of the sat. it looks like the higher cloud tops with the moisture plume coming up from the south west is now right over the region so I think the main area of rain may be re-establishing further north, and I think the RUC is also trying to show this somewhat.

drpostel- read your post this morning,remembered the response you got as I just checked the 7 day forecast. Looks like they have changed it to 70s. So for "now" it looks like they agree with you :)

Wow wouldn't want to hear "face certain death". It will be very interesting to see what this storm does.

did I miss something seems like everyone is saying the rain isnt going to be much? not sure what we have got but seems to have a bit. Guessing with 100% chance the next two days we should get a little more.

**********************

We still have highs in the 60s for Sunday/Monday.  I wouldn't write off Ike yet and its impact on us.  Could still see some rain on Sunday.  Monday should be dry, but cool.

Jeremy

Gary

I have a feeling you are about to go crazy trying to figure out this rain event!! I remember a rain event back in the Spring when a lot of rain was called for and people started to get worked up over the event when it did not materialize on time but in the end we receieved what was forecasted for. I am gonna bet that even though we are not being drenching yet that it will end up being a good 2-4 inch event for most of us in the viewing area. I am patiently waiting. :o)
Monica

I think Ike farmgirl.

Drop by dreary drop, Emma, MO has crept up to .45" today.

Walt Snyder

I'm happy as a clam that we are not having Tropical Rain. :)  Maybe I can get a good nights sleep without having pounding rain hit the windows. This gentle mist is fine with me. The horses got a nice shower bath before coming in for the night - nothing as pretty as a nice clean horse.

Here is what I think. I am seeing the rain in Southern Kansas and North Central Kansas increasing in coverage, and I think we will still get a lot of rain around the viewing area. It is probably going to fill in later tonight through tomorrow and Saturday.

Ike is a very interesting storm.

Alex

katrina was smaller, but considerably stronger than ike is.  ike is continuing to weaken.  i wouldnt be surprised if it drops down to 95mph max winds at the next advisory.  it doesnt look very good.  big yes, strong, no.  hype yes, facing death???only if you decide to go out for a swim maybe...  the nws people down there must have stock in the oil companies.  there is no other reason why they should be saying stuff like that.

I am actually from Galveston, TX(well, born there anyways) so i consider that my hometown. i really hope its not as bad as everyone is making it out to be.

Gary B! That is such wonderful news. I am happy your daughter got a liver and is doing well. Prayers to the family whose loved one passed on their liver to your daughter.

Gary:

Good cloudy drizzely/lite rain morning to you sir!!! I'm not sure how much actually fell last night as I am going to wait until Saturday afternoon and get one final total. It rained pretty much all night last night and it was a great gentle rain-plants and grass are lovin it!!!!

First off-awesome news Gary B-that is just fantastic!!!!

Ok-here it goes-I'm way out of practice but a few random observations-I sure hope at least one word in all of this makes a little sense!!!

1. It appears on the latest surface observations that the front is right on top of us and that the remnants of Lowell are beginning to run up that front. The front is not real clear at the moment and there are not alot of dew point differences between here and say St. Joseph, but the wind shift line appears to be right on our door step if not in fact right over us.

2. Latest radar I think is showing some heavier rain bands beginning to really work their way North and pool along that front. If that does indeed happen or is actually happening (i.e. if I have any kind of clue about anything LOL) it could be quite the wet day here as the heavier bands still extend all the way back into NW Texas.

3. I think the 0Z GFS kind of shows this scenario as it throws out some decent QPF from Topeka into Kansas City at 18Z into tomorrow morning-1-2 inches at least. It appears the GFS kind of backs the front up somewhat today before it finally slides south beginning later tonight and then exits the area by 18Z tomorrow

4. 1-3 being said, if the front is right on top of us, maybe the heavier bands stay just to the south of a Lawrence to Overland Park line and places like Ottawa and Emporia get the heavier rains. This is against the 0Z GFS which has some heavier rain to the north of us as well.

5. In the end it is time to follow radar and the position of the front-it does indeed appear the area is in for a very rainy day today and while we may not have Noha's Ark or the Epic of Giglimesh today if we do get 1-2 inches  the usuall low spots in Lawrence may go under water especially if it comes in a couple of brief down pours as the ground is for sure saurated

6. Regarding Ike: most focus should be on land fall obviously. The EURO for sure has for the past 5 days taken him east of Dallas into the Ohio Valley and the GFS yesterday caught onto this as well. However, if for some reason this front gets hung up here for 12 more hours that what is forecasted all bets could be off. Does the front get through as depicted on the 0Z runs tomorrow or does all the moisture of Lowell help keep it stalled around here? Does this even remotely make sense?? LOL

Ok-enough rambelings today-cheers from the crowd LOL!!! Just as I am finishing this, the rain is picking up in itnensity-will be quite the day to follow the radar-man if only the whole colum was below freezing this morning....(of course, that would never happen-warm air would some how get brought in at some level!!!) I hope this makes a little sense this morning-my musing were suspect on a good day-let alone on a day when I have not been following things very closely!!

Have a great day!!!

Bill in Lawrence

Oh Boy, It is pouring in La Cygne!! And that is a huge yellow mass of rain heading my way. I need a prozac. :)

I'm with you farmgirl, I have to travel this afternoon, not looking forward to it at all.  I'm longing for the desert.  Hang in there!