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Thunderstorm development & Hurricane Ike

Good Friday afternoon bloggers,

Hurricane Ike may still strengthen a bit as he is about to blast into the Texas coast near Galveston.  We will track Ike tonight at 10 PM as he gets very close to the coast.  Ike will have some influence on our weather, but will it be in the form of wind and cooler weather being drawn in, or will it be in the form of very heavy rain?  The latest NAM model takes Ike just southeast of our local area, but it is close.  A slightly farther west track and we could be in the rain shield.  Either way, I think it gets out of here by kickoff on Sunday.

At 4 PM we have a very interesting set up, and thunderstorms are forming. Look at the map below:

I thought we had an inverted trough, but instead there is an entire weak wave cyclone that has developed with a weak warm front and cold front, and a surface low.  Temperatures reached 90 degrees, and now there is a tornado warning for Johnson county, MO.  Thunderstorms are developing near the warm front and just west of Kansas City.  Remember we have a tropical air mass.  Some areas could easily get 4 to 5 inches of rain tonight in these convective bands.

Gary

Published Friday, September 12, 2008 3:51 PM by glezak

Comments

 

penguin said:

I am going to buy a boat and paddle around in my back yard this weekend. :p
September 12, 2008 4:04 PM
 

anch889 said:

Received 1.23" of rain so far today. 0.44" yesterday and 0.08" the day before.

Ray from East Lawrence
September 12, 2008 4:07 PM
 

outgoing101 said:

There is a Tornado Warning for Henry county, be careful everyone in that area.
September 12, 2008 4:10 PM
 

gardnerstorm said:

gary what about md 2252...whats your thoughts on that
September 12, 2008 4:20 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

A bit late perhaps, but now SPC recognizes the current severe weather potential in the E KS W MO area in md 2252...
September 12, 2008 4:27 PM
 

Brent said:

4 to 5 additional?.......wow....
September 12, 2008 4:27 PM
 

marlina10 said:

Johnson County, KS is now under a Tornado Watch!
September 12, 2008 4:30 PM
 

angvic00 said:

Tornado watch...ugh!  I heard there was rotations spotted in Johnson, Co., MO
September 12, 2008 4:31 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

Things are happening fast...tornado warning for Lawrence.
September 12, 2008 4:33 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

4-5" of more rain!!! Geesh, I guess I will leave my boat outside (was thinking of moving it into the garage for the winter) in case we need it! :-) This is one of the few tornado watches that kind of scares me (other than my first tornado watch).
Audra in Lee's Summit
September 12, 2008 4:35 PM
 

outgoing101 said:

There are several tornado warnings now. Take it easy everyone, who knows it could be a long night. ALthough it has allready been a long day for Gary and the weather team.
September 12, 2008 4:36 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

My rain total as of 4:30- 2.40" from yesterday up until 4:30 today.  Dea at 68th Terr. and Oak.
September 12, 2008 4:37 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

There are several tornado warnings?!? I have to go look.. It does look like a scary night.
Audra
September 12, 2008 4:39 PM
 

C in Raymore said:

Wow was shocked when I was out all day and just heard about the warnings. Suppose to go to Royals season ticket holder event. Thinking I will be staying home instead. Our low streets out here are all flooded. What a day .
September 12, 2008 4:39 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Crud! The warnings SW of us look to be heading towards the house and the eldest childs work/home. Oh joy! Please, Please be safe everyone!!!
Audra in Lee's Summit
September 12, 2008 4:41 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

The good news for KC is these tornadoes look like they will be minor, i.e. no F3+ storms.  Could still damage your house or knock a big tree onto someone's car or house etc., especially with the ground saturated the way it is.
September 12, 2008 4:43 PM
 

LSMOWatcher said:

Where is everything tracking?  My work computer is so slow, hard to watch radar.
September 12, 2008 4:44 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

The internet is such a great invention.  Here I am, a KC resident, staying for a few weeks in Texas and able to monitor both hurricane Ike and the severe weather threat around KC in real time!!  I just can't watch Gary's forecast live on TV.  :(
September 12, 2008 4:47 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

KC-area storms are moving northeast.  Heaviest storms run from just east of Lawrence to between Emporia and Ottawa.
September 12, 2008 4:48 PM
 

RickMckc said:

Wow, 90s down south of us. I almost forgot it's still summer.
September 12, 2008 4:50 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

here is a link showing the watchbox, so everyone can see where they stand:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0899_radar_big.gif

interesting setup for us for sure...i am glad the emphasis has veered from ike for the time being.  hopefully no touchdowns...except for KU ;)
September 12, 2008 4:54 PM
 

marlina10 said:

Tornado warning in Johnson County, KS
September 12, 2008 4:56 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

LSMOWatcher, I am looking at the NOAA website. Go to http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/

That is what I think most of us are looking at.
Audra
September 12, 2008 4:57 PM
 

bgmike said:

I just spoke to a tornado chaser buddy of mine who confirms a quick touch down 2 miles north of Greely, KS before the storm was Tor Warned.  That same cell is heading right toward Spring Hill, KS and still has visible rotation in it.  
September 12, 2008 4:58 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

WE live in Johnson County MO!  The sun was out for about five minutes - I guess I better go get the TV on and see who's gonna tell me what I need to know.  Throw some water and blankets in the basement, a couple snacks and I guess we're good to go.  Other than hauling the dogs down.  I hope this isn't going to be an all-nighter!  Didn't even know the potential was there!  Shut fof the computer Laura - last one got zapped by lightening!  Later!  Everybody be safe.  Laura
September 12, 2008 4:58 PM
 

Ross said:

Tornado Warning for Johnson County
September 12, 2008 4:59 PM
 

catlady said:

Apparently there's a tornado warning in Overland Park now - sirens going off.
September 12, 2008 5:00 PM
 

bgmike said:

Both of these Tornado Warned cells have produced confirmed tornado's.  Weather Team....can you go to live streaming on line??

Mike In Ottawa
September 12, 2008 5:00 PM
 

RickMckc said:

My wife is driving through Shawnee Mission and said she heard tornado sirens going off for a few minutes, but nothing now.
September 12, 2008 5:02 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

You guts have you news cast live on the internet!! Using the LIVE Weather PLUS link! Keep it up!
September 12, 2008 5:05 PM
 

Taxman said:

Wow, looks like the NWC and SPC was on this prior to the two tv stations that I watch with regularity.  Kind of surprising.  The past month and a half has been rough on the local weather teams' accuracy and forecasts so it seems.
September 12, 2008 5:06 PM
 

xrysostom said:

Emma, MO picked up exactly 1.00" today. Coupled with the .45" yesterday, the first round of activity brought 1.45", most of it in very slow and gentle fashion.

Walt Snyder
September 12, 2008 5:09 PM
 

pilotskcx said:

Gary,

I knnow you're on the air right now.  We're getting ready to go mobile for our local area.  Chase cam is not up right now, but if we see anything we'll pass along the video as well as report by cell.

Jeff Nielsen (PLA414)
September 12, 2008 5:14 PM
 

daveg616 said:

Tornado on the ground with debris according to the sheriiff dept. near Baldwin City.

Dave
September 12, 2008 5:15 PM
 

catlady said:

Overland Park sirens going off for the 3rd time now
September 12, 2008 5:16 PM
 

bellgolfMU12 said:

will more stuff be developing and headed towards columbia mo
September 12, 2008 5:22 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

tornado spotted just north of de soto!!! power flashes reported. people near de soto take precautions now!
September 12, 2008 5:22 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

I think the SPC was a slow on the draw with this tornado threat.  They did not issue a mesoscale discussion until literally a few minutes before the first tornado warning was issued, and well after the thunderstorms spawning these tornadoes had begun to form.  The tornado watch was issued 30 minutes after the md cam e out.  So no, I don't think the SPC did a good job with this situation, overall.
September 12, 2008 5:28 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

watching radar very close in KCK.  so far so good.  got sirens tho
September 12, 2008 5:31 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

A lady I work with here in Stephenville, TX said she got an email from a friend in Harlingen, Texas, which is near Brownsville, well south of the hurricane's path.  This friend reported that the price of gas in Harlingen rose from $3.49 a gallon yesterday to $5.25 a gallon today....
September 12, 2008 5:32 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

sedsinkc, i tend to disagree, they had us in a 5% tornado risk most of the day today so they did an ok job today.
September 12, 2008 5:37 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

Time to sign off.  I hope everyone in KC gets through tonight safe and sound.
September 12, 2008 5:40 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

I hope you're recording a good timelapse from that Nicholas Golf Club cam!!  That is beautiful.
September 12, 2008 5:40 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Tornado warning until 7 p.m. for Lee's Summit. Radio went off. In the basement now.
Audra in Lee's Summit
September 12, 2008 5:41 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

Randy, that may be true, but no watch was issued until after multiple tornadic thunderstorms were already in progress.  Most lay people would not have been aware that KC had a 5% tornado risk today, they would only be aware after the SPC issued a tornado watch which would be broadcast over the local airwaves.  The SPC was in reactionary mode today, rather than precautionary.
September 12, 2008 5:42 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

I'd love to continue the debate on whether the SPC did a good job today, but I gotta run.
September 12, 2008 5:44 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

sedsinkc, I knew that there was a tornado risk because NOAA said so starting at 1 p.m.
Audra
September 12, 2008 5:45 PM
 

Bandito said:

Gary,

I sent you of a pic of a tornado on the ground about 2-3 miles north/northeast of Baldwin City. It's not great and very hard to make out the funnel. I was watching it and I could see the white part moving up fast. I couldn't see any debris.

Scott in Baldwin City
September 12, 2008 5:46 PM
 

mdg2fast4u said:

Sirens off in S Lee's Summit.
September 12, 2008 5:46 PM
 

mdg2fast4u said:

Now they are off.
September 12, 2008 5:47 PM
 

anch889 said:

Just had a downpour of rain which brought our total up to 1.52" of rain.

Ray in East Lawrence
September 12, 2008 5:48 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Where's the location of the cell coming out of Bonner?
September 12, 2008 5:50 PM
 

farmgirl said:

"Some areas 4-5 inches".... be nice to know around what location this is too occur. I really do not like these blanket statements. The viewing area is large and a more pinpointed area would be nice. :)
September 12, 2008 5:50 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

130th and State Avenue weak and brief tornado at 5:38 PM. Lots of leaves falling from the sky.

Bryan
September 12, 2008 5:51 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

we ll debate later ;)
September 12, 2008 5:53 PM
 

Roberto said:

Long time no post for me... i think it's been since May! Nice to be back, and on a very interesting day! The sirens are going off here in NE JOCO even though I know there is no warning..and Gary those were som eerally amazing pictures from Lionsgate.
September 12, 2008 5:56 PM
 

nilekinnick said:

Farmgirl,

You've said a mouthful....I also don't like the blanket statements. But, I suppose that it is too difficult to actually pinpoint one spot or area. But I agree with you completely, and I also don't understand the fascination and hype surrounding severe weather.

But I do appreciate all of the info from the weather team and this blog.
September 12, 2008 5:57 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Still have sirens off and on in western SHanee.
September 12, 2008 6:03 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

How bad is it when I pushed the button to listen to the weather radio because it was going off I only got static?
Audra in Lee's Summit
September 12, 2008 6:06 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Yet with the sirens no one is mentioning on air..why?
September 12, 2008 6:06 PM
 

marlina10 said:

So is there a brand new tornado warning for johnson county, ks now? Is there a new tornado now?
September 12, 2008 6:07 PM
 

mdg2fast4u said:

marlina10,
It is in NW Johnson county
September 12, 2008 6:11 PM
 

dragonbrat79 said:

I'm at work with no radio/tv at the KS speedway holding our breath for the cells to come. Any news on these other cells heading our way?
September 12, 2008 6:11 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

What are you talking about JeriCorrell? There is continous coverage on NBC.
September 12, 2008 6:13 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

but nothing much about shawnee, I am watching the coverage AND the clouds
September 12, 2008 6:17 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

I really want to go fix dinner, but I dont know if it's clear enough here.  We live up near Liberty off of Stark (which is about 5 minutes to each I35 and I435).  Any thoughts?
September 12, 2008 6:28 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

SO like JoCO is free of warnings? Cool because I havd to drive through there and all I can hear is wind roaring, and you can't see to drive. Glad I'm home because it was roaring like a train down there around Johnson Drive.
September 12, 2008 6:32 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Ok, I was at Indian Trail JR High during Football Practice. (I Coach)

If u dont know where it is its right next to Olathe South on 151 and Ridgeview I Believe,

Anyway Saw a Wall cloud around 4:45PM. Warning was Posted around 4:47. We head to Lockeroom while I started Storm Watch. Storm watch lasted till about 6 when I left Indian Trail. After the Sirens went off and on about 4-5 Times. I finally Left and now after getting Pizza came home.

The Wall Cloud looked very awesome and wasnt surprised by the Tornado warning. I told Coach White (1 of the coaches that I work with), That there was a Tornado Threat today.

Right on the Money.   5/5 for me
September 12, 2008 6:35 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Emmysmom,
I would wait for a little bit if I were you.
Audra
September 12, 2008 6:38 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Gary,

I came home and was surprised to see my guage had 4.1 inches in it. I looked at the estimated precip, and it wasnt showing nearly that much. Is it possible I really got 4 inches here in Marceline?

Alex
September 12, 2008 6:46 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

Gary-

2.33 so far today here at 130th and State Avenue.

Bryan
September 12, 2008 6:46 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Wunderground is showing purple in Wyandotte county.. Some info please??????????????/
September 12, 2008 6:46 PM
 

BillSmith said:

Bloggers,

This is Bill Smith, Dir. of Internet Operations for NBC Action News. If any of you have photos or videos of the storms, please share them with use. Click here to upload your vids and photos. Thanks and stay tuned for more on NBCActionNews.com and NBC Action News.
September 12, 2008 6:52 PM
 

pilotskcx said:

Gary,

1809 CDT we called in a rope funnel over downtown Parkville to Platte County.  No touchdown, tried to vid it.  It was very brief then went back up tracking NE.

Jeff
September 12, 2008 6:53 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

No damage at my abode in western Dotte, good thing because it seems most of the focus from any station was on the Missouri side.
September 12, 2008 6:55 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Under a warning, not under a warning, then back under a warning.. Wish they would make up their minds. <j/k>
Audra between Lee's Summit and Blue springs.
September 12, 2008 7:03 PM
 

catlady said:

In OP the torrential rain smells fishy - just like it smells at the gulf. Coming down so hard there's  1/4 inch standing on the streets. Easy to hydroplane so be careful out there.
September 12, 2008 7:14 PM
 

juba said:

A funnel passed over Jhonson county Executive Airport, I have a better pic of the Funnel on the other side of thee Airport, but I don't know how to transfer it from m phone. :( Its a great pic. We got a half in from that storm and IDK how much form the lastest.
September 12, 2008 7:33 PM
 

kristy said:

good coverage weather team.  as of now se lees summit has a total of 3.05.  kristy
September 12, 2008 7:40 PM
 

rkguitarist5 said:

2.25" in Kearney
September 12, 2008 7:42 PM
 

farmgirl said:

I wasn't able to watch all the coverage on the storms tonight. Did Gary say if Ike would impact us tomorrow and Sunday? And the projected rain fall totals for Sat. Thanks.
September 12, 2008 7:50 PM
 

RickMckc said:

juba, you can try emailing it to yourself if your phone service is set up for multimedia texting.
September 12, 2008 7:58 PM
 

sherman said:

OMG!!! That tornado here in Desoto was less Than 1000 feet from my house
September 12, 2008 8:00 PM
 

sheldan said:

I just emptied 5 inches of rain out of my rain gauge in Raytown, don't think it was all today, some from yesterday and day before.  Saw some pretty cool clouds around here.  Was outside watching and listening.  
September 12, 2008 8:06 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Sherman, is your property ok? I hope so.

Has this been a wild year or what???? I wonder if this year will go down as having the most tornados? Sure has been a bunch and at odd times of the year too. Remember the twisters in Jan. in Springfield, MO? I'm just sick to my stomach over what is happening with Ike and those poor peoples properties not to mention the impact on the wild life.
September 12, 2008 8:13 PM
 

stormlover said:

2.75 in Liberty...we were in a restaurant in town & missed the sirens but left when the manager came to our table & told us if the weather got worse they would put us in the refrigerators.  It's still pouring here.
September 12, 2008 8:31 PM
 

sherman said:

I am ok. Going to go outside and look around saterday to see if I spot damage. This town has had its fair share of nasty storms.
September 12, 2008 8:36 PM
 

Brent said:

"You guts have you news cast live on the internet!! "

lol couldn't help laughing on that one, lol but I looked at the keyboard and saw that the t was next to the y...I do the same thing...lol

great coverage guys, I wathced you the whole time. although we missed out here....
September 12, 2008 8:37 PM
 

kristy said:

farmgirl, i was in my basement which does not have cable so I missed the 6 newscast (if they had one) just saw the severe weather coverage soooo i am anxious to know what is going to happen thru sun too, hopefully not this crazy heavy rain!!!????  Kristy
September 12, 2008 8:48 PM
 

RickMckc said:

2.15" so far @I-29 & 64th street.
September 12, 2008 8:57 PM
 

bellgolfMU12 said:

confirmed tornado in pettis county
http://www.sedaliademocrat.com/news/weather_11330___article.html/national_service.html
September 12, 2008 9:06 PM
 

tbaffa said:

Gary - Since rain began this morning I have recorded 2.71" at 119th and Woodland in Olathe. Great wx broadcast on the tornadoes this afternoon.

Tom Baffa

----------------------

Tom,

Thanks. It was a challenging three hours of reality TV.  Our new Weather Center stood up well.

Gary

September 12, 2008 9:17 PM
 

bulldog said:

Spent some time in the basement here in Sibley tonight.  Nothing hit us.  I was just surprised to hear sirens, must have been Buckner's and maybe Sibley has one (we are west of Sibley in the county).  Anyway, just dumped the rain guage at 5" !!! that is from the start as of last night.  Also my husband ran into 2-3 feet of rain on 24hwy at Salem Dr. in Independence.  He's not sure how much, it stopped the truck.  There is no tributary there to cause that, so we have no idea what happened...
Summary;
5" Sibley
Audrey
September 12, 2008 9:19 PM
 

Kelly said:

Wow! What a day! I have had about 4" here in Raytown as of 2030.
Gary, will Ike remnants head our way?

Kelly
September 12, 2008 9:25 PM
 

mmancubfan said:

So how many structures were destroyed/damaged by all of these tornadoes today in the KC area.

Sedalia got hit, Douglas county-Desoto got hit, all of these confirmed right?

I am having trouble finding confirmed structure destruction or even property damage other than tree damage that would seem to be more of a "funnel event" than a touch down.

Am I correct, or is the property damage not in yet?

Or was this a typical warm frontal system full of rotation but little in basis of actual touchdowns?

September 12, 2008 10:00 PM
 

farmgirl said:

I feel like I'm in the ground hog movie. Same thing over and over again. Rain, Rain and more rain.

Been singing CCR - who'll stop the rain! I'm greatful for the dry lull we had here in La Cygne. Got to turn the horses out for awhile. Now for tomorrow's forcast. I'm nervously waiting for Gary's forcast.
September 12, 2008 10:07 PM
 

farmgirl said:

They are showing severe storm damage to barns and homes in Desoto.
September 12, 2008 10:09 PM
 

mmancubfan said:

Look out Houston!!

Post from 10:00 Central time post from NWS NHC Miami...

"IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE."
September 12, 2008 10:14 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Gary, Wow what an information packed weathercast. Are you surprised with this much rain this time of year? Does this still fit your LRC?

Can you give an update on your best guess for rain fall totals for tomorrow night when Ike interacts with the cold front. 2-4 inches or more? Any chance he'll go further west and slam us?
September 12, 2008 10:28 PM
 

Alden said:

Wow, lots of rain. Lots, and lots of rain. I know, it's a nobrainer that it is raining. And hopefully this will be the 100th comment today!
September 12, 2008 10:50 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

What an intense night.  I still have water seeping in, little river running through the basement.  I am SOOO glad there was no wind, if we'd lost power the basement would be flooded for sure.
No clue what's in the rain gauge right now, it was about 1.25" when I got home at 5.  
September 12, 2008 11:06 PM
 

bside steve said:

Gary.  I looked up this morning the dates of the 1977 flood.  September 12 and 13.  Maybe only slightly coincidental, but what were the conditions then.   Brookside rain total at 11:30pm - 4".
September 12, 2008 11:40 PM
 

Wthrlvr said:

What an incredible weather day! Sirens going off for an hour here in Johnson County, and now I can officially stop griping about the rain missing west Olathe. We've got a major lake in our front yard and a river on the side of the yard. It's still just pouring straight down. And I can help watching the constant coverage of Ike.  Wow.
Janet
September 12, 2008 11:57 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

We are quiet here between Lee's Summit and Blue Springs, then we get a down pour where it sounds like the heavens have opened up. I hope Ike does not dump too much rain on us. I think we will all float away if we get 4-5" more. Did anyone have damage from the tornados earlier?
Audra
September 13, 2008 12:35 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

I go to work come back and find out you guys tried to have a mini tornado outbreak, wild does not even come close to describing the weather this year, as for Ike, well its gonna be a mess for sure.
September 13, 2008 12:56 AM
 

RickMckc said:

Rain finally ended about 10 mins ago near I-29 & 64th up north. Added 1.8 to my earlier 2.15 at 9pm for a grand total (I hope) of 3.95. Wow!
September 13, 2008 1:20 AM
 

LRCfan said:

Well,Ike has made landfall I'm watching TWC crew they clocked a gust of 101 mph in Houston simply amazing.
September 13, 2008 2:09 AM
 

jon64506 said:

4.25 in . in st jo. very soggy dog walking this morning
September 13, 2008 5:46 AM
 

farmgirl said:

Golly, been watching the radar all night till it went down for maintenace. Topeka and KC have gotten hammered with training rain. I feel for all you in those locations.

Kind of bad time to take radar down for maintenace during active weather.
September 13, 2008 6:11 AM
 

juba said:

Why are we in a Flash flood warning, that might be training rain but id dosen't look super heavy at all.
September 13, 2008 6:45 AM
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