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It is finally drying out...September 15, 2008

Good morning bloggers,

The picture below was taken on Saturday by Linda K. Lewis, Overland Park.  The sun was setting as the remnants of Hurricane Ike were moving in.

It is a major change in the weather pattern.  We will look back and then look ahead to some fantastic weather in this mornings blog entry.

 

Four tropical systems have had a significant impact on our weather this summer (Dolly, Gustav, Lowell, and Ike).  Dolly was earlier in the summer, but the other three have helped our September rainfall totals add up.  Let’s begin by looking back at the first 14 days of September.  It rained 12 of the first 14 days of the month.  Here are some rainfall totals from these two extremely wet weeks:

  • KCI Airport:  8.82”
  • Downtown, KC:  8.80”
  • Sedalia, MO:  8.27”
  • Chillicothe, MO:  7.44”
  • Pleasant Hill, MO:  6.74”
  • Gardner, KS:  6.02”
  • St. Joseph airport:  5.66”
  • Lee’s Summit:  5.66”
  • Johnson County Executive:  5.27”

We were affected by two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and a tropical storm from the Pacific.  Hurricane Gustav on September 2nd, and 3rd and a cold front was absorbed into Gustav’s circulation with this combination producing some heavy rain in the region.  And, then Tropical Storm Lowell in the Pacific Ocean sent copious amounts of moisture across Mexico streaming our way.  And, then this combined with the influence from Hurricane Ike on Friday and Saturday.  This influence created a unique set-up that resulted in tornadoes across eastern Kansas and western Missouri on Friday afternoon.  The following graphics come from the Pleasant Hill National Weather Service website:

I was writing a blog entry last week when the first tornado warning was issued by the National Weather Service for a cell over Henry county, MO.  I was showing the surface set-up that was primed and ready to provide the ingredients for these tornadic cells.  There may have been as many as 9 tornadoes including this one that you can see above on the Doppler radar image.  You are looking at the couplet with the bright red showing the winds blowing away from the radar (the raindrops are moving away from the radar site in Pleasant Hill) and the bright green showing the strong winds blowing towards the radar.  This is a strong indication that there is a tornado, and it was producing damage near DeSoto, KS.  While DeSoto was being hit by this EF0 tornado there were many other cells close to doing the same thing in a line right near Kansas City.  Go to the National Weather Service Site to see more pictures.

The weather pattern is calming down.  I don't even see our next chance of rain, and if you feel that you were robbed of the last part of summer, well, here comes summers last harrah!  It should warm up nicely this week.  Look below at the 500 mb forecast for mid-week:

The jet stream is retreating and there is an anticyclone forecast to be over Colorado by Wednesday and this will help us heat up to near 80 or higher this week. 

Oh, yeah, and I was at the Chiefs game yesterday.  Ouch!  That was painfall to sit and watch.  It actually hurts to sit out there (emotionally). But, as the season goes on, it will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can win one game.  They have lost ELEVEN in a row, and if they lose all 16 this year it will be a 25 game losing streak, unheard of in the NFL.  That's my sports statement of the day.

Gary

Published Monday, September 15, 2008 6:08 AM by glezak

Comments

 

CentralMO said:

Gary
I was wondering if there is somewhere that I can find average rain fall totals for the year and/or by the month for central Missouri.  The reason I ask is, here we have recieved nearly 14 inches of rain for the month of August alone and over the weekend picked up another 4.75 inches.  Thanks

Jason

--------------------

Jason,

I will try to look for some information on this later today.

Gary

September 15, 2008 7:44 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Gary did you catch the moon this morning around 7AM on your tower cam?  It was huge and right on the horizon.  Sure wish I would have had a camera with me.  I think most of that volcanic ash has washed out of the atmosphere finally, the sunsets and sunrises have been in decline, well those that we could see.

-------------------------------

I saw the full moon this morning, but missed the moonset.

Gary

September 15, 2008 8:01 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

You all did a great job with this forecast. The total were what you said they would be!! I had 4.75 out of this storm with a September total of 7.59 inches, so far. I am sure my total will not be as impressive as others but it is still a lot. Today looks to  be an awesome day. I am looking forward to fall and even winter. I am hoping when the weather pattern sets up this year that the storms are not all weekend storms. Seemed like last winter and the winter before a lot of the storms were weekend ones. Ughhh!!! We only had one snow day last year because of that. :o) Have a great day!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

---------------------------

Monica,

Thanks for the totals. We all have had enough rain for quite some time.  It will be lush and green as summer comes to a close.

Gary

September 15, 2008 8:05 AM
 

ths3900 said:

How do major tropical storms affect the LRC?  Seems like it might affect it in the short run but it might return to the normal LRC.
September 15, 2008 8:06 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

davidmcg, i dont know if you caught the sunset saturday evening, but it was spectacular.  i am a little further NW than most, so i may have gotten more clearing, but there was definitely volcanic ash still in the atmosphere still.  it was the best sunset yet, also, there was a full double rainbow to aid in the shot, it was really quite amazing.  it looked like it could be the entrance to the pearly gates...

-------------------------

Pvt Murphy,

I will try to post a picture of that sunset.

Gary

September 15, 2008 8:20 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Why does the NWS not use smoothing on the radar, and the velocity?
September 15, 2008 8:21 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

also, i dont know if a return to climatological norm can be called a return to summer for its last harrah...but i guess it will feel like summer compared to recent conditions...it still baffles me that we have only hit 80+ twice this month! wow.  we have more 40 degree nights than 80 degree days...
September 15, 2008 8:23 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

What a two week period that was, now if you look outside you would not see any evidence that we just left August with the vegetation so wet and green.  Time for some nice weather... then we will likely go into uncharted territory as what is left of this LRC should collapse soon.  (Also of interesting note is the high winds the left-overs of Ike brought well inland to places through east Missouri, through Indiana and Ohio ect.)

--------------------

Nick,

Ike did rip up across eastern Missouri to southeastern Canada.  I will show a satellite movie tonight of the entire track.

The LRC continues, but the morphing has begun. A new pattern won't really show up for another three or four weeks, but it is about to happen again.

Gary

September 15, 2008 8:26 AM
 

Steve said:

Great Picture
Great Forecasting last week
OK Gary
Looking Forward
Looks as if we will warm up steadily and be on avg or a little above for the next couple of weeks.
When do you think we will start up the Next Cycle? The first of Oct or around the 10th?

-----------------------

We pinned down the start of last years LRC to be around the first two weeks of October. I expect the same thing this year.

Gary

September 15, 2008 8:45 AM
 

Brocksmama said:

mamaof3girls- my daughter would agree with you about the weekend storms- she loves having snow days obviously!  I on the other hand would rather have the storms on the weekend when I don't have to go anywhere as my car has lousy tires!  Need to get some snow tires before winter this year!!  P.S.  how are your ants?  I'm still battling mine but the Terro has slowed them down considerably- another day and they'll probably be gone!  Dea
September 15, 2008 9:05 AM
 

nitesky said:

I'm so not a football fan, but when I heard the Chiefs quarterback say (before the game with the Patriots) that "no one expects much from us" I almost threw the remote at the tv. These guys are making how much? And charging how much for tickets? Geez.
September 15, 2008 9:39 AM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Andrew_Stafford said:
Why does the NWS not use smoothing on the radar, and the velocity?

--

Generally because smoothing is a fairly unsound approach when it comes to the science of radar.  While it may make the radar appear prettier to the eye, it skews the data - it lowers the maxima and increases the minimums ... which often hides real data.

What smoothing does is it finds areas where there are extreme differences between adjacent (side-by-side) pixels and levels them out a bit to make it look smoother.  This has the affect of actually changing the data.

If you were to smooth the shot above of the tiny couplet over DeSoto, the likely effect would be to make that couplet nearly invisible, since it is such a small segment.  It is only a few pixels on each side.  To that end, the couplet may not be as visible, leading to the wrong interpretation from the image.

September 15, 2008 10:32 AM
 

macnkc said:

Farmgirl, hope you made it through the rain with no roof trouble. My roof was ok, had some seepage in the basement though.   Time to dry out.
September 15, 2008 10:51 AM
 

macnkc said:

Farmgirl, hope you made it through the rain with no roof trouble. My roof was ok, had some seepage in the basement though.   Time to dry out.
September 15, 2008 10:51 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

gary, i dont know about the next rain chance...maybe a slight chance on sunday...?

but more importantly, there have been indications for a long time about a very sharp cold front in our general area by 9/23-9/25 timeframe.  thats still over a week away, but it has been very consistent in the mid range models.  have you seen it?  now that its getting closer, its coming into focus better.  its going to be a good one...first snow for the northern plains, and i bet $1 that kci will get its first 30 degree temp sometime midweek next week, probably wed or thurs morning.  we will see, but i personally think its looking like a good bet!  could there be frost in september for some in the viewing area? we will see...

--------------------

Pvt Murphy,

With this pattern that early frost is possible.  At the same time the weather pattern is about to change and shift around, so I am not relying on any computer model over five days out right now.

Gary

September 15, 2008 11:43 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

good point notes...it skews the data.
September 15, 2008 11:44 AM
 

Braysmama said:

My husband and I  had to cut our camping trip short. We rode out Ike in a motel room since they evacuated the campground and for good reason. Everything had flooded.( I'd say the campground was under at least a foot of water.)  Not sure how much rain they received but when we returned the next day our campsite  had a huge trash dumpster sitting right where our tent was. Trout were all over the place and people were trying to get them back in the river. The parking lots were covered in mud and debris. The wind must have been strong too since there were so many large trees down. It was certainly an experience I don't want to do again.
September 15, 2008 12:03 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Brocksmama...the ants are gone. I have the Terrro juice and have been using that for about 2 years...what a great product for inside ants. The hardest part is not killing them as they crawl around...ya got to let them eat it and take it back to there nest. Did I tell ya about the amount of ants in my mail box. I had, I swear, probably 1000's of them crawling around...so bad I could not even see the color of the inside of my mail box. Just a bit ago I sprayed hotshot flying bug killer in the mailbox and closed it. You should of seen all of them crawling out...LOLOL, it was gross. People kept driving by asking me what I was doing, LOL!!! They all died within 2 minutes and then I just swept them all out with a paper towel. So no more ants for me. By the way...I like my snow storms during the week cause I work weekends and that is when I am driving..hee hee!! I am getting good at the winter driving after the last 2 winters we have had. Have a good day.
Monica
September 15, 2008 12:14 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Too bad about your trip braysmama....glad you are all safe though.
September 15, 2008 12:15 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

I know it's supposed to warm up, but what about the humidity?  Our air conditioner has a leak and has apparently emptied of freon, so we will have no air conditioning for the remainder of the summer.  The heat is bad enough, but when its humid we can't even open the windows.
September 15, 2008 12:49 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

considering that forecasted low temps will be in the upper 40s-low50s for the rest of the week, i think you will be spared excessive humidity emmysmom.  i am hopeful that my ac doesnt kick on at all.    there may be one semi warmish humid day this week, and it would fall on either sat or sun.  but, i believe we are in for another cool shot early next week.  apparently, the pattern is changing according to gary though.  we will see, i still think that it will be a sharp cool shot regardless of the pattern change, because the pattern change he speaks of is merely the return of the dominant NW flow, which is still a 'seasonably cool' flow to speak of.  it just means that cold air is continuing to build up not too far away from us :)

something interesting to keep an eye on is the amount of stratus that can form in the nw flow, generally the NW flow is not conducive to stratoform development...but, this summer can be summarized with dominant stratus fields across the whole northern half of the lower 48.
September 15, 2008 1:08 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

I am going to get shot for this.

pvt - the storm you refer to on 23-25?  It will happen.  Also, don't be suprised to see it cutoff.  Watch very closely where the trough axis of that storm presents itself.

Just a tidbit of foreshadowing - while it is not uncommon for a frost in mid October, watch for a hard freeze in the area - just my opinion.

I have already found what I believe to be the next pattern, but I will keep it to myself.

Should you have time to study past entries in the last two weeks, I have dropped some clues to the storm you refer to and what I believe the cycle to be.

*****Disclaimer*******

Important note - It is impossible for me to have found the cycle as it does not set up until October per the LRC.

***** End Disclaimer******

;-)


September 15, 2008 1:31 PM
 

angvic00 said:

pvt_murphy,

I did see that sunset Saturday night.  It was, for the lack of a better term, enchanting:)  Last night's sunset had some very pretty hues, too.  And the moon early this morning was also spectacular!  After 12 days of rain we really needed to see clear sunny skies and I am looking forward for one more last warm-up for the summer.
Too bad for the Chiefs:(  But go EAGLES!  Or as we say...Iggles!
September 15, 2008 1:33 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

What's the point of claiming something just to keep it to yourself?  

Reminds me of the kid on the playground shouting "I've got a secret!  I've got a secret!"
September 15, 2008 1:40 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Notes - Not so much.

Two reasons for why I stated it the way I did.  

First, I have posted on two seperate occasions in this blog what I believe it to be on this blog.  Both within the last two weeks.  No need to do it again, but my post above was to further indicate my strengthening confidence in what I am seeing.

Second, the LRC does not support finding the cycle this early.  I think I have a way to do it, much like I did it last year, but until full vetting and peer concensus, it cannot be held as golden - thus the disclaimer.

I am trying to be very patient with the cycle discovery this year [though think I am failing miserably right now!].  When pvt noted the storm he did above, this is one of the specific storms I had been waiting for..thus the reason for my most above.

We will see.
September 15, 2008 2:03 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

notes, you must have known scott as a child, and caught him doing that exact thing...fits him like a glove...

scott, if it does cutoff i will give you the credit, because generally the NW flow is rather progressive this time of the year.  that being said, if it does cut off, it would be rather...fitting, wouldnt it? another thing...the average first freeze is the middle of october for points north of I-70, and 3rd week of october points in the metro south of I-70....so a freeze in the middle of october would be considered average.  i would start looking a little earlier than that, since it would seem that we are in a mass cooling phase...then again, we are just a month away from our average first freeze already...so it could come quite soon...i think sep 23-25 storm will at the very least bring frosty temps to the fringes of the viewing area, if not closer.  kinda exciting, isnt it? another exciting prospect for the snow lovers is that KCI averages .2" of SNOW over the next 45 days...not a lot, but what does come in october tends to come in bunches...if at all.

as far as your theory scott, the timing makes sense...or atleast the assumed(on my part) timing.  i never liked the timing for the lrc, it didnt make much sense, not to mention there was never any reasoning mentioned as to why it started when it did.    unless if there is abrupt climate change between now and november, i think we will continue our year long cooling trend and be already be in a winter time pattern by the time the normal end of november-early december prognosis from gary comes out.  i know he faces mounting pressure every year to get it out earlier and earlier, but there is a reason for that, and that reason is because the pattern exists well before that time period.  that all being said, i truly believe all predictions will be wrong this fall/winter/and maybe spring.  something is changing out there, fast.  something that the people at the nws/noaa are failing to recognize.  dont know what is causing it, but its hard to deny that this has been a weird year.

one last thing, i will be interested to see the sunset tonight for a couple rasons.  first of all, i want to see how much ash is still in the atmosphere from the multiple volcanoes going off around the world.  apparently there is now a large volcaninc plume coming from a chilean volcano.  amazing we are having such increased volcanic activity the past 11months or so...the second thing is that the harvest moon should be rather spectacular tonight,  the moon will rise just as the sun sets, creating an interesting glow on the sky.  it would provide some nice pictures i am sure.  
September 15, 2008 2:30 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

btw gary, i can almost guarantee it will get cooler than 48 at kci tonight.  i think the nws has it right with going with 44.  the dewpoint in the middle of the day here is 46 at my house, clear skies...light winds...i think we will approach the dew point tonight...

--------------

Murphy,

We dropped it to 45 degrees.  I agree.

Gary

September 15, 2008 2:34 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Ha - as a kid, I was a wall flower.  Took years to erupt out.  LOL

Let me rephrase my October thoughts..yes, I know frost/freeze is not outside the norm for that time of year, I am expecting a streak of -10 or more degrees below norm.  

I feel pretty good right now on the general trends I think are coming up.  There is plenty of time to be wrong, but I do think based on WHERE I THINK the long range longwaves are set up, it will be a harsh winter.

I should be proven wrong in all this...I guess we will see.
September 15, 2008 2:49 PM
 

Joplinwxman said:

Scott,
I am going to do my weekly hard research on the pattern tonight, especially b/c the weather is boring.  I will let you know if I think I see any changes from last week.
Doug
September 15, 2008 3:09 PM
 

juba said:

Sorry, I've been wrong all along! At Johnson County Executive Airport it is actually 6.46" of rain.
September 15, 2008 3:41 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Gary,
You said, "While DeSoto was being hit by this EF0 tornado there were many other cells close to doing the same thing in a line right near Kansas City.  Go to the National Weather Service Site to see more pictures."
Do you mean pictures of damage or radar images showing where tornados were and were trying to form? If it is of tornados trying to form on radar, could you please put in a link as I am not sure where to look. I found the link for damage pictures on NOAA but not radar showing tornados. I want to see how much danger we were in (near 7 and Colbern in Lee's Summit, not far from Missouri Town in Fleming Park) and my daughter (who now lives near the Plaza) was in.
Thanks
Audra

----------

Audra,

I would say you were in very little danger, but those cells were certainly producing EF0 tornadoes.

Gary

September 15, 2008 4:48 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

well, we have hit a boring stretch of weather to speak of...enjoyable, yet boring.  sooo let the nitpicking begin! i dont think we will have that many consecutive days of 80 degree temps.  if we get any cloud cover whatsoever mid 70s will be the best we can do.  i understand that during a summertime situation temps would rise everyday that the weather was benign like it will be, but, this isnt summer anymore.  i expect a max temp to be achieved at some point...probably 80 or 81.

-----------

Pvt Murphy,

The first test is Tuesday.  How high will the temperature get on Tuesday?  We are going for 75 degrees. Then, Wednesday I think it will be near 80 degrees.  There is a bit of a trough aloft swinging across on Friday into Saturday.  Right now it looks dry, but just a couple of weeks ago that would have had clouds and some thunderstorm activity.  I agree with you about any cloud cover keeping us in the 70s, but will there be any cloud cover?

Gary

September 15, 2008 7:09 PM
 

juba said:

I h--t my email!!!!!!!! I want to through it in the trash, it wont let me have any contacts, and this is my most important email!!!!!!!!!!!
September 15, 2008 8:33 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

well, i dont know what happened to the overnight temps...kci dropped only to 49...and i dropped to 46 at my place.  by all accounts it should have dropped to 44-46 at kci...i fully expected to nearly achieve my lowest dewpoint, which was 42 degrees here...i dont know what happened.  oh well, 40's are still 40s...considering its still technically summer i suppose...
September 16, 2008 9:12 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Anyone know where to get .csv KMCI CF6 data?  I have to do text to columns right now and want to find a better way.  
September 16, 2008 10:17 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

September 16, 2008 12:14 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

kcwxguy said:
Facinating...

http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0493/122/5/pdf/i1520-0493-122-5-814.pdf

--

How beautiful a theory can be when stated so clearly and empirically ... not to mention, presented scientifically!
September 16, 2008 2:18 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Doesn't hurt when you work at NCAR and peer with other dedicated scientists.

Most importantly, I find the first two and the last two sentences of the introduction to be the most interesting parallel.  In addition, the last paragraph of the paper largely seems familiar in intent and understanding.

Notes - it seems so bizarre to me that you would find this paper to be so elequent, when in fact it really focuses on presenting observational data and frequency trending and lacks a great deal of quantitative data you are always screaming for.

I think we both agree that any further documentation of the LRC should be better constructed and more emperical, but there is more than one way to cook a goose.

I presume that this will go into a long discussion or critique, and I am largely not interested in walking over familar paths again, but thought in posting the link it would be interesting to mull over the parallels or possible interactions with the LRC and MJO

;-)
September 16, 2008 2:54 PM
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