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I will be there. Because I smell good

I hope I can come, what kind of art do they have. I really like handblown glass art, will they have that?

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This is a really big art fair, so I'm willing to guess you will see what you are looking for this Saturday.

thank you Jeremy for posting the stats...I always find that very interesting.  Glad you're filling in for Gary.  I'm sure that's a lot of work but you guys always do a great job for us.

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All of our schedules are a little crazy the next month or so.  I'm also filling in for Gary from Sept. 26-Ocotber 1.  Hopefully you can stop by the Plaza Art Fair on Sunday to meet us!

Jeremy

I only see one more legitimate shot of rainfall for this month.  Pvt has noted it as I have...it will be next week with the progged shortwave to arrive over the Plains.

The GFS run to run has been flip flopping a bit on it, but over the last few days, it is consistent in hinting at it.  I expect around the 25th for this shortwave to dig and deepen a bit more than the GFS is advertising.  I believe the wave will eject just south of KC and ride up along Illinois into Wis as it rejoins the jet.

It has been quite telling this summer to watch Ed, Gus, and Ike where they have been lifting.  

Might have a shot to get out to the Plaza art fair...

I'll have to see how my weekend shapes up. I might show up with teenager in tow to say, "HI".
Audra in Lee's Summit

HEY everyone! Just finally wanting to drop in and say hi when i know that the weather is finally settling down. I would have to say that this is my favorite part of "fall" (considering it hasnt quite started yet) but i love these cooler days with no clouds, its great. I've been quite busy, lol but i still use and love this blog probably just as much as the NWS. Thanks again everyone for all of your guys' hard work on the blog and on air. I really can't wait for the new LRC pattern to unfold! so question: when exactly does the pattern start to show signs of recurring? ill be sure to celebrate somehow... Oh and i hope to see ya there at the art fair! last year it was pretty kool when i went, ill come and visit u guys, lol.

I'm 18 Today!! And this is perfect weather!

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Happy birthday Andrew!  You can now vote!

Jeremy

Happy Birthday Andrew!  Hope you have a great day!  Dea

Happy Birthday Andrew!

Happy Birthday Andrew!

Would really like to come out to the Plaza Artfair this Saturday eve and meet Gary and you in person, but won't be back in KC until Sept. 27.  Weather's great here in rural north-central TX, highs past 2 days in the low 80s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s...enjoy the fantastic weather in KC and hope the Plaza stays dry all weekend.

Happy Birthday Andrew!  Behave yourself!

Happy Birthday Andrew, 18 is quite a milestone!

scott- so is the rainfall chance you are talking about go with your cold weather that is coming? I will have to say I like your thoughts just because they are what I want to here, haha.

Its funny..the GFS has been rather odd with the storm I am looking for.  Run to run, it is doing a "now you see it" followed by the next run of "now you don't".

For the last few days, it has been consistent in showing it about every other run.

We will see.  I would expect it around the 25th.  Being a Thursday, it must happen, right?  LOL.

Not sure if it will be a big rain maker.  Much will depend on other factors, but this storm is exciting to me because of what I personally see as the next LRC already visible.

As far as the cold, I am thinking that will happen a bit later..though, some of these recent low temps have been quite chilly.  

I am thinking mid October we will have about 4 days that will be signficantly cooler that the previous days leading up to it.  It is not uncommon at all to get frost in this timeframe...  

If it happens the way I think it could, it wouldn't be frost, but a freeze..and perhaps more than one or two degrees below freezing.  

We will see..I could be completely wrong..but as each day goes by, I am growing more confidence in what I think I see in the new cycle.

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Since you like exact answers from us please define cold.  'X' number of degrees below average?  Can you explain this more and hopefully put some rough numbers on your prediction.

Make sure to bring this up when Gary is back tomorrow.

Jeremy

scott, the preferred 12z solution is more bullish with the wave.  however, i still dont buy the storm track, which has the low moving from eastern WY nne through eastern ND.  although that is more climatologically favored, its seems like that would be going against what has already been happening.  so, i think the storm will indeed head further south, as the newer guidance suggests...how much further south remains to be seen.  even if the 12z solution does verify however, we would be looking at very cool and dreary conditions the second half of the work week into part of the weekend...

however, even the 12z is so much different that it is hard to take what it says seriously.   the gfs has been less than reliable, as it relies too much on climatology imo.  the emcwf has performed much better, but alas doesnt go that far out.  i know how you arent a believer, but i think it handles that transition months much better...and already has a superior track record the past month and a half.

that all being said, a couple things to note in the 12z run has the shortwave run through, and then a massive and strong hudson bay low parks itself over east central canada, sending the  dreaded backdoor coldfront into our midst by the second half of next weekend.  not only that, but it appears to really block up the northern jet flow...notice how the next pac NW storm heads nearly due south at the same timeframe likely because of the massive hold of the blocking pattern? instead of making landfall around vancouver, b.c(like our next shortwave is progged to do), it makes landfall in north central CA coast...much more favorable for our region.  also...look at the bay of campeche....is something brewing down there? fantasy watch is on...IF the west coast storm does indeed come that far south, and IF there is indeed a tropical entity in the western gulf...it is quite conceivable that a similar setup could happen as to what we have experienced a couple times already...which means that we could have a cold and wet time of it around the beginning of october.  needless to say, things seem to be really cranking up now that these pac NW storms are showing up in the medium range.  

so, i guess gary was right...enjoy the next week...because it is likely this quasi-summers' last harrah.  



p.s. i find it amazing that even though the conus has apparently experienced the 22nd warmest summer on record(i just dont believe it) according to the nws, the polar cold pool, amplification of the jet, and aggressiveness of the 540 line thus far are all more pronounced than any other time i have seen given the time of the year since i have been paying attention to these things, which is only about 10 years, but still, it says something atleast...

Pvt..I think we are definitely seeing the same things.  Allow me to have some fun with your thoughts…

First, I think there is a great parallel in our thoughts…you said –

“that all being said, a couple things to note in the 12z run has the shortwave run through, and then a massive and strong hudson bay low parks itself over east central canada, sending the  dreaded backdoor coldfront into our midst by the second half of next weekend.  not only that, but it appears to really block up the northern jet flow...”

Here is the excerpt of my blog entry from September 3rd.

“I am looking at the wave in the northern stream near the great lakes, the ULL in far eastern Canada, the general negative tilt of the flow from north central Canada down into the CONUS, the ridging forming in the WPAC and the strong Aleutian low. "

That statement was in regards to the conditions today.  The next statement is in regards to what Pvt is talking about [a week later]-

The strong Aleutian low in August dropped down, and cutoff due to strong blocking from the ULL NE of the Great Lakes.  This happened about a week later.”

So…since the GFS is flip flopping, I will reference the 6Z run this morning…

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_216l.gif


I do believe we are looking at the same thing.  And for grins…lets think back to the last “cutoff” low that was so bizarre, and seemingly out of place…

August 15th.

Even the NWS indicated that the ULL forming was beyond three standard deviations of the norm.

Pvt said – “however, i still dont buy the storm track, which has the low moving from eastern WY nne through eastern ND.  although that is more climatologically favored, its seems like that would be going against what has already been happening.  so, i think the storm will indeed head further south, as the newer guidance suggests...how much further south remains to be seen.”

Based on where I think the longwave is and where the previous cutoff progressed, I am buying the previous track guidance and what Pvt is thinking…

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20080815.html

Follow it through the progression of about 7 days.

I think this is a key element of the new cycle.  I could be completely wrong, but if right..further evidence the LRC starts sooner.

Oh..and Pvt – Here is your backdoor front that is likely with what we are seeing….

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/08/15/3310604.aspx

August 15/16 to Sept 25/26 – about 40-42 days.  In line with my thoughts posted on September 3rd.

Last thought – I hate the NAM, but I am ok with the Euro…and Jeremy I will go with 10-15 degrees below the mean temps of the previous week.  I will go with 30 degrees for the lowest low of that stretch.

What is your forecast for that week?  

;-)

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I'll let you know when the pattern sets up:)

What is your timeframe for the 30 degree temp?  Maybe you said but the entry was long and I skipped to the answer of my question.

Jeremy

One can beat the GFS and NAM's to death and make somebody's therory or model fit in there somewhere.  The fact is if we didn't have the drifts from the previous hurricanes (which is actually rare) we'd probably have average or below average rainfall for the month so far.  This years hurricanes seem to want to go to the gulf and we've seen in previous years where Fla was the target.
Having said that, our September wet period was mainly due to moisture from Ike, etc.  You just can't predict those senerios....It doesn't fit any pattern or anything else other than it happens this part of the year.
For a cycle setup, you have to discount the rain from the hurricanes.
I agree the 25th looks good for a front, but I believe it'll arrive closer to late on the 23rd, if not early on the 24th.  The models have been consitant at either missing precip and/or being behind by about 24 hours for the last few months.

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Gary B,

I have to disagree with you somewhat.  Our recent rains mostly came from a front & dusturbances runnign along the front.  Ike contrubuted about .50" at the very end of the big rain event.  We were getting rain when Ike was near Cuba!  Also, the pattern seems to be in a process of change, just when we would expect it as we head towards the next pattern.  This means all previous cycles from the past year are going out the window.  We will know more about this pattern during the next 1-2 months as it really gets going in October & early November.

Jeff

I will try to make it up there on saturday!! I might get a good dinner at plaza 3 or something.