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The quiet and dry weather continues and it has arrived at a good time for the weather team and bloggers to hopefully get our 'batteries' charged for another fall and winter season. Fall officially begins Monday, September 22 at 10:44 a.m. What a year 2008 has been weather-wise and I'm sure there is more fun ahead in the 3+ months left in the year.
In the short term we can expect another nearly perfect day on Thursday with sunshine and highs around 80. By Friday and Saturday a weak ULL will pass to our south and help to increase our moisture. At the moment it looks like this should serve to bring us more clouds, but probably not any rain. If the moisture return is a little greater or the ULL moves farther north we may have to add a small rain chance to Saturday, but right now it looks dry.
Here is the NAM forecast map showing the ULL just to our south.
By next week our flow should turn more southwest allowing us to make a run into the mid 80s. Could it be the year's last run into the mid 80s?
Another thing to watch for is the Climate Prediction Center's long range forecast update for winter. I think it is updated around September 21. The last update was August 21 and it called for a very good chance of above average temperatures from December-February.
As many of you know our forecasts are based off the LRC when it comes to a winter forecast. I took a phone call the other day from someone that owns a snow removal company wondering what this winter would be like. I felt bad that I couldn't give an answer except to explain that we feel the pattern begins to transition into a new cycle within the next month. Once that pattern is established, making a long range winter forecast with some confidence is possible. So stay tuned!
I read an article in the Wisconsin State Journal discussing the winter forecast(for WI) for 2008-09 comparing the Old Farmer's Almanac and the CPC forecast. I found this last statement interesting.
Mike Halpert, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, says there are equal possibilities for rain and snowfall being below, near or above normal. That was the center's prediction last year as well.
If you want to read the entire article(very short) please follow the link below.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/W/WI_WINTER_PREDICTIONS_WIOL-?SITE=WIMAD&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Last winter Madison, WI received over 100" of snow setting a new all-time seasonal snowfall record. Temperatures were also below average.
It will be fun to watch the pattern set up over the next month or so. This will be my second full year of seeing the pattern develop from start to finish. Hopefully this year temperatures are above average with less snow:)
Gary will be back on Thursday with the updates. And don't forget to stop by the Plaza Art Fair this Saturday from 6-8 p.m. to meet Gary and me at our booth. The booth is located near Williams-Sonoma.
Have a great night and enjoy the 'free air conditioning'!
Jeremy