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A calm weather pattern....September 18, 2008

Good morning bloggers,

Jeremy Nelson posted a three month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center yesterday, as you can see in the entry prior to this one. According to my theory, the LRC, the weather pattern completely changes and a new unique weather pattern sets up during the next 6 to 7 weeks.  Our first impression on the next few months will come later in October.  When I was at a weather conference in Washington D.C. one of the CPC experts and I had a long conversation and he said that their forecasts that come out in September and October are the least likely to have any accuracy.  And, this goes hand in hand with the LRC!  Watch, as we go through the next two months, I expect their 3 month outlooks to change. 

I am back from Los Angeles.  I went to my Niece's wedding and had a great, but short, visit with my family (leaving Tuesday morning and coming back yesterday). The weather here in Kansas City is very much like Southern California, and right now we don't see an end to this great weather, at least into next week.  The weather will be nice for the Plaza Art Fair.  NBC Action News is the sponsor of the Plaza Art Fair this year and we will be out there all weekend.  So come on by and say hello.  I will have the schedule of times for who will be out there later on today.  I will be there from around 5 PM until 8 PM on Saturday evening, with Stormy.

The weather pattern is rather calm with the jet stream well up to our north.  The next front is forecast to stall across the northern plains this weekend.  Look below:

The front across South Dakota extending out across the Great Lakes states is forecast to stay north of us.  As the jet stream gets stronger in the coming weeks these fronts will no longer be able to stall out, but it the flow aloft is still weak enough to hold this front to our north.  This means great weather is likely through the weekend.  There are a few weak disturbances trying to meander our way, but there is very limited moisture available, so I am expecting it to stay dry for a while.

Have a great day.  We will update the blog later.  My special report on Cesar Milan, the Dog Whisperer will be on next Thursday night at 10 PM.  I will have more information on this next week.

Gary

Published Thursday, September 18, 2008 8:15 AM by glezak

Comments

 

Andrew_Stafford said:

It's September 18th, not 17th!

---------------

Thanks Andrew, that's what a quick trip to Los Angeles does to your mind.

Gary

September 18, 2008 11:11 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Andrew, have you never lost track of which day it is? I always look at the time stamp of the blog entry, that way I know how recent it is. Gary et all don't do the blog because they have to, but because they are cool like that. I for one am not going to let a wrong date on the header of a blog entry ruin the enjoyment of reading the posts.
Audra

-----------

Audra,

Thanks, I am changing the date right now.

Gary

September 18, 2008 11:52 AM
 

spotter said:

good to see you back gary hope you had a great trip just to let you know and you already know this you have a great team to back you up while you were gone.have a great weekend gary.

-----------------

Thanks!  I agree. Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff really make the weather team special!

Gary

September 18, 2008 12:04 PM
 

MCSev said:

Hey Gary,

On a personal note:  I find it hard to remember where I am all the time.  I think it is very reasonable to see that you missed "when" you are by only a day!

Keep up the great blog.  I am very interested in the pattern setting up.  I think you have been brilliant on predictions overall for the past two years.  M

---------------------

M,

Thanks!  We are just weeks away from our first impression of the new weather pattern.

Gary

September 18, 2008 12:49 PM
 

A dogg said:

Wow, wonderful weather today!! And from the sound of things, its going to stay that way for a while. Great golfing weather tommorrow, and the weather will be perfect for the plaza saturday!! While I am up there, maybe could could buy me dinner at plaza 3 gary!! ;P
September 18, 2008 1:45 PM
 

RickMckc said:

Interesting commentary on the CPC forecast, Gary. Accuweather's Joe Bastardi today wrote that he sees it being colder in exactly the spots where they are predicting warmer. Part of his reasoning is that "the hurricanes, when tracks are congregated, are indicative of certain type of pattern that produces the storms in a certain area and given other signals similar, should have a similar result after the season."

Point being (as best I could understand him) that we have seen several hurricane leftovers run up through the Central Plains into the east and this indicates something concerning the weather to come. Not exactly an LRC there, but sounds like it has some similar thinking to it.

Should be a fun fall and winter season and this blog makes it all the more interesting. Thanks for providing it!

---------

Joe Bastardi has the right idea but in reverse as it would work for the previous months, not the future months.  The weather pattern is about to change, so what the hurricanes have done only showed what the pattern was in. 

Gary

September 18, 2008 2:06 PM
 

NanaX9 said:

Hey Gary - do you ever predict how the fall colors are going to be or when they will peak?  I'm trying to get my brother to come visit from Texas and I used the beautiful fall colors as a draw - just wanted to be able to zero in  on when would be the best time for him to come see them?   I trust everything you predict - so I figured.....  :)

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If we don't have a hard early freeze then peak color will be during the second half of October.

Gary

September 18, 2008 5:18 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Global Cooling predicted by the Farmer's Almanac? I believe it's possible, get this Global Warming crud out.
September 18, 2008 6:28 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well, we had our fun last week...
YAWN, well, we had some cirrus clouds and a contrail or two, light winds and comfortable.
it will be interesting to see what that dip in the jet does next week, and if a shower will form nearby this weekend.  It has been a fun ride with this LRC but its time is up and for better or worse the new one is on the horizon. There would be no way I could live in So. Cal., visit? sure, but living there would drive me nuts.
September 18, 2008 7:50 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

:-/
September 18, 2008 8:30 PM
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