Good morning bloggers,
It is Friday! The weather pattern is going through some rather significant changes and I am going to go over some of the details below. But, first here is our schedule for the Plaza Art Fair. We have a booth and will be out there all day on Saturday. Please come by and say hello. Stormy the weather dog will be there from 6 until 8 PM. Here is our schedule of appearances:
Saturday
- 10 AM-Noon: Christa Dubill, Mike Marusarz, Amy Hawley, Jack Harry
- Noon-2 PM: Elizabeth Alex, Lisa Benson
- 2 PM-4 PM: Jenn Strathman, Leeah Brennan, Larry Seward, Keith King
- 4 PM-6 PM: Chris Hernandez, Marissa Cleaver
- 6 PM-8 PM: Gary Lezak, Jeremy Nelson, Sloan Heller, & Stormy
- 8 PM-10 PM: Russ Ptacek, Cynthia Newsome
The weather looks outstanding for this weekend. There is a weak and disorganized upper level system that will be passing by today and tonight. This will bring a few clouds, but otherwise I am expecting the weekend to stay dry. We have a very slight chance of showers in the forecast (10% Saturday and 20% Sunday), but we may take that out as there just isn't enough lift to produce any signficant rain. A brief sprinkle or shower is possible, but the clouds will really be there to make some beautiful sunrises and sunsets.
Look below at the 500 mb forecast for this evening:
As you look at the map above and the map below I really just want you to notice one big thing. The energy in the flow is steadily strengthening as Autumn approaches. This flow aloft will continue to get stronger until it reaches its peak strength in January or early Februrary. On the map above there are 14 lines of flow. On the map below there are 10 lines of flow. This means there has been around a 40% increase in energy into the weather pattern since the middle of summer. What causes this increase in energy? Temperature contrasts! As the temperatures start dropping over the North Pole down into Canada the flow aloft will strengthen and it is happening right now.
The LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) that we have experienced for the past 11 months is about to go through a massive transition. The pattern will change during the next three to six weeks, become established and then begin cycling through what will be next years weather pattern. This will all happen by early to mid November. We have learned a lot about the LRC the past two years. One of our findings is that the pattern continues through the summer and lasts into September. And, then it goes through a huge change between September 15th and October 15th as the new weather pattern evolves. Remember, the pattern that is about to form is unique. The pattern we are about to experience will have never happened before. Our winter forecast will be based on the LRC and we should have our first impression by sometime in November.
Have a great weekend. Come on out Saturday evening and visit with Jeremy, Stormy, and me. If you have any questions about the LRC or weather just ask us and we can discuss anything you would like to talk about.
The Dog Whisperer special segment will be on next Thursday night at 10 PM. It is premier week on NBC beginning Monday night with Heroes. I love that show! Monday is also the first day of fall.
Gary