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I will give summer an A-.....since I just got another roof put on and we had to tie down our trampoline many times, I would say it was exciting enough for me. Now I am ready for the first freeze and some SNOW...bring it on!!!!!!!!!!! It has been rather boring lately but that is good thing for the people dealing with flooding. They need boring and then some. I am enjoying the weather though. Have a great day!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

hey gary i would give it an a+ who can beat this weather yes we have had enough rain cant wait for your thoughts on the future lrc. so lets keep the the great weather going but we do need a freeze to clam down pollen in the air.have a great day gary

I would give this summer a B+.  I hate summer with a passion so if it weren't for the somewhat cooler temperatures and the very active severe weather season, I would have Failed this summer.  It was a better summer than usual, but I am still so glad it's over!  Bring on FALL and a bunch of SNOW!!!

I want the cool air back.  Highs in the mid to upper 60's are my bread and butter.  I ♥ it.  Can't wait for it to be back.  Especially because I have to wear pants and nice shirts to work. :(

I know I'm going to be killed for saying this, but sheesh, this beautiful wall to wall sunshinely stretch of weather...day after day after day....is making me CRAZY!!  I NEED some variety here.  A raindrop perhaps?!!  Sorry, Gary, just had to vent.  I'm not getting my hopes up for tomorrow, or should I?  Kathleen

weathermom,

I am with you on that!!!  If they are going to kill you...they will have to kill me too!  :)

Being pregnant this summer, I'd have to agree with Gary-- A-. There was a lot of humidity for a while that drove me nuts, but overall, I didn't suffer through the heat as I know I could have. Everybody who knows me tells me I've been very fortunate for a first-time pregnancy that it was so relatively cool for a change!!! :) I'm ready for fall to really get kicked into gear, though... keeping the windows open, seeing the trees change, and I'll be mostly home to enjoy it and take pictures with the baby (due any day now!)

I have to give this summer a C-.  Not enough heat and waaay too much rain.  I miss long, hot, dry summer days.  A one week heat wave does not make summer in my books.  I didn't even get to go swimming as the only days that even flirted with 95+ degree heat were while we were in NYC.  I'm the odd one out here but I miss the summer's of my youth.  I dread winter coming, having to stay inside and being cold all the time are not my idea of fun.  Give me sunny days and dry weather and I'm happy.  
Just sign me "soggy and freezing in Paola"
--deb

Well I am a loather of hot weather and prefer rain. I always think I would do better in Seattle cause I get depressed when its really hot. This summer was very nice though, although it made it hard to swim sometimes cause it was almost too cool on some days. I would rate it a A- in my book. August turned out to be very bearable this month. The beginning of September was fantastic, I loved the rain and cooler days with the windows open.

This weather, well its get a bit too warm in the days to keep my air off. Maybe I am a whimp but I am 7 months pregnant and have a 18 month old crawling all over me. I like 60's and low 70's. That is a perfect fall day for me. So not a big fan of these 80 degree days :). Cant wait for a front to bring in some cool air and rain! Bring on Fall and Winter for me!

i am with weathermom and Jacob. i need some exciting weather :) i cant wait till winter SNOW!!!!!!

i give this summer a B-. Yes it deserves an A for temperatures and A+ for rain. but as for as the exciting stuff nothing really happened. it was rather boring yes. There for a give the excitng level a D. Hopefully the new LRC comes up with some great snowfall. but for now everyone go enjoy the great colors and weather this fall. They should be truly amazing

im sorry gary, i know i am beating a dead horse here...but how is what we have been experiencing recently anything related to what has happened the past year or so?

when was the last time we had a dry, warmer than average stretch/phase? in fact, this is the longest we have gone without measurable rain all year...i am looking, and i just dont see it the correlation-still. also, this anticyclone feature that has been dominant for the past week and for the next few days hasnt made an appearance all year.  nothing seems related.  what kind of evidence do you have to suggest that there wasnt a major pattern shift already almost 1.5 months ago?

what we have right now is a typical 'indian summer' pattern which goes along nicely with the idea that fall started several weeks ago...since the term indian summer usually suggests a late warm spell in the midst of fall.  

part of the scientific process involves ruling out other possibilities, and i dont see you doing that.  maybe you are...but i see a lot of holes in the process.  your 06/07 cycle theory was considerably more successful than your 07/08.

as far as the summer went...i give it an A because i hate the heat, and i could have counted the number of real hot days on one hand...that equals a good summer to me.  

...still on track for unsettled weather around the beginning of the month.

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Pvt Murphy,

Bare with me today as I have a bad cold.  Anyway, I am not saying this pattern is 100% the old pattern, but there are many features that are still the same.  We have had some other dry stretches, just look at August.  Overall, there is a transition going on, no doubt.  We will be seeing a brand new developing pattern very soon and we will go into all of the details in the coming weeks.

And, I must disagree.  The forecasts based on the LRC the past two years have become increasingly more accurate.  The 45 day forecast issued in early January verified quite well.  The second one issued in Februrary struggled with a few of the specifics but in general I would call it successful. The spring forecast and summer forecast played out about as predicted.  So, this 07-08 LRC had more success than the accurate predictions based on the 06-07 LRC.  We broadened the forecasting in this past year over the 2006-07 season.

I have been a bit out of it this week with this cold and responsibilities at work.  Keep debating and we will see where we go in the next few weeks and months.

Gary

I would have to give the summer an A-, it was fairly exciting. But I am bored with the weather right now! I just hope winter will be more exciting for us down south this year!

I have to give this summer a B+.  I was a little disappointed at the end a couple weeks ago w/all the rain and cooler weather.  I prefer the HOT August heat.  It just makes summer to me feel like summer:)  Last summer was my first here and it was a hot one...I LOVED it!  This past week and this week get an A+.  I wish it could stay this way all year;0)

I'm with the others who say this strech of weather is a bit of a yawner. If it was 70 with 50's at night--where I could leave windows open all day--I'd be more content.  It's just right now I have to have the air on again. I do open windows at night but like last night, it was stuffy.  Whaaaa, whaaa!  I'm feeling like a whiner.  OK, then! It's great!  I'm sure the cooler weather will be here very, very soon.  Summer was an A- for me.  My only disappointment was the lack of really good thunderstorms here in west Olathe.  We got plenty of rain, but when others around the area were having big storms, it would barely thunder here. Just rain. Which is great, but I like lots of thunder!    Janet

guess i'd say A+ for temps (not too hot!), C for precip (too much for my tastes and hounds' paws), B for excitability factor. the kind of weather we're having now suits me just fine. - mike

Yes an A- sounds good for this summer, it was a fun one, lots of storms and cooler air, and all of the tropical systems to affect us, very interesting.  Yes I guess the break has been alright but for me it could act up any time now;)
At least there is some wind today, and Sunday morning we had some nice widespread fog.

pvt - thought I was the official dead horse beater.  LOL.

Of signficant note, I find interesting that conversations have shifted to definition and duration of the cycle than discussion of the cycle itself.  I think this is meaningful.  

There is no doubt that it is a work in progress, and methods/communications can be improved, but conceptually and with more and more evidence by myself and others researching, I think there is more to show regarding the mechanics.  I am in full support of your thoughts regarding the need for a bit more scientific rigor.

All in due time.  ;-)

So, if you do not believe that this is part of the old pattern, what do you believe is currently happening?  Certainly my thoughts are well documented and well known, but interested to hear the thoughts of others that have been following the LRC.

?

Its hard to grade the summer.  For many, it was very nice...for others impacted by floods or other weather tragedy, probably not so much.

While these temps are nice, I find this weather kind of boring like everyone else. Does that mean we are all adrenaline junkies? Not happy unless something is happening? It was a interesting Summer. I would have to give it a solid B grade. Way too cool in the beginning, lots of rain, and way too humid. I don't know about everyone else, but I don't like having to "swim" when walking outside and forget doing things outside in the humidity. If you do, you end up soaking wet from sweat, yuck! I am looking forward to some amazingly blue skys as backgrounds for fall color photos I am hoping to take. A nice blue sky in contrast to bright yellow leaves, maybe a puffy cloud to add interest, yea baby, that's what I am talking about.
Audra

Assigning grades to the summer is completely a matter of personal taste and circumstance.  Everyone has a different opinion of what would constitute an A grade.  That said, I'd give the KC summer an A for being wet enough to keep the grass green and an A- for temps in that it stayed below 100 and only got over 95 a few times.  If it had not gotten over 95 all summer I'd have given the temp grade an A.  It is understandable if people who suffered flood damage or other storm damage give the summer an F.  Looking forward to returning to KC this weekend in time for next week's cold front.

I give this year's summer weather a final grade of B for (2) reasons. We had too many cloudy or mostly cloudy days. This was least amount of sunshine during the summer season I have observed in KC since I moved here in 2005 [2006 was my favorite summer so far]. We lost the first half of September [usually a time of nice summer weather here] to rain as a result of tropical remnants. Our current sunny and dry pattern has served to offset my criticisms and has actually moved the final grade up from a B-. Of course, what I am really saying by way of my comments is that I am not a big fan of the soon to be past LRC weather pattern with a longer, cold winter, cool, wet spring and later development of "true" KC summer weather which did not last all that long after it did develop.

Bob

This summer gets a C- from me.  I love warm weather and swimming and it was too cool and wet for my taste. The water was warm for 1-2 weeks at the most.  What most consider boring is ideal for me.  Here' s hoping for some dryness and above average temps for winter.  

Good first full day of Fall, Gary, and everyone else!

I appreciate a break from the heat and stormy weather.  I also appreciated our last rain without it's being an electrical storm.  Overall, I think it was a good summer.  Nothing over 89 degrees is best for me and the AC bill.

Hope your cold leaves soon, Gary; a summer cold being even worse than a winter cold.  

If the weather cycles like Gary purports and has been doing so for the last many months going back to last winter, how do you reconcile tropical events?  

Gary has said that this cycle apparently exists for the entire northern hemisphere from late fall and apparently still existing today.  We have seen many tropical storms and hurricanes this year.  When I look back to some of the big ones in August, I don't see anything resembling those features in those locations 50 or 55 days prior...  

Are tropical systems somehow some big exception to the rule?  If so, why?  If not, how do your reconcile their absence prior in your cycle theory?

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Notes,

The tropical systems are also cycling through some type of pattern, possibly more related to the Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO).  This is likely just one of the factors influencing the tropics.  But, the LRC is more directly related to the westerlies north of the tropics.  The tropical systems still had similar paths all the way through this season, especially as they got caught into this years weakening pattern.

Gary

I'm assuming this is the cold front heading our way?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=twx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Notes - do you want fact or theory?

Scott -

How about both?

Notes, Gary:

Is it possible that mid-latitude westerlie LRC that we see in KC is distinct from LRC patterns at other latitude zones such as the tropics and polar regions. Tropical systems are born in the equatorial easterlies and they largely move west until they are influenced by westerlie weather patterns and turn [if they turn at all]. Does the tropics have a distinct LRC? Might this also be said for the polar easterlies as well?

A few thoughts...

Bob

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Bob,

As discussed in my answer to Notes, maybe.  I haven't studied the tropics, but have noticed a cyclical pattern to the easterlies as well.  There is likely some pattern in the tropics that could be similar to the LRC, but I am not certain.

Gary

Notes - I am lazy today.  I have written in the past about my theory about how the LRC is influenced by the tropics.  I believe there is bidirectional feedback, but will spare the rest of folks another 4 page blog entry.

LOL.

Post your question on your forum and I will answer in the next day or so.

BobinOP - I agree in theory..I think certainly if you have a pattern in one place, it will cause patterns elsewhere.  How the entire mechanics for the atmosphere is interrelated is probably beyond my expertise, but would generally agree with your synopsis.

I do believe the tropical season does affect the transition of one cycle to another.

On a side note..Jeremy, if you are lurking, you were very interested in me clearly defining my mid October suprise in a prior blog.  I can't find it to dig it up, but the long range GFS fantasy looks good...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_384l.gif

But, it probably won't happen..and by rights cannot happen since the new LRC doesn't exist yet.

I am dillusional.  Ha.

Scott,

I wasn't looking for a thesis, just an explanation of how, for instance, a mid-August tropical system (that can certainly be a highlight of the global circulation) fits into his cycling theory since he alleges we are still cycling on the same trend as last winter...yet I didn't see anything resembling a hurricane in the gulf in Jan/Feb/Mar/etc...

I know you have ideas that the tropical systems transport energy poleward and somehow disrupt or otherwise influence this cycle idea, but that doesn't seem to be Gary's contention, as he claims that in August, we're still in the same cycle as we were the prior winter...thus the question.

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Notes,

A hurricane ends up being about as significant as a shortwave ejecting out after it moves inland.  With this years weather pattern conditions became very favorable for the ejection process to take its time as the tropical systems moved west into Texas. Dolly, Gustav, Ike, Eduard, and I think one more all took a path west before being picked up.  These all fell into place into the long term longwaves, as weak as they were in August and early September.

Gary

Fair enough, Notes...

I will be interested to hear the answer too.

I am definitely going to give the summer an a+!!  For me and my dog it couldn't get much  better temperature-wise, and I feel my yard received enough rain.  I didn't miss the abundance of hot temps one bit!  Right now i am a bit bored with the current weather just because we are not having anything exciting happening such as hurricanes or tornados, plus I would like the cooler temps to come right on back- don't like the 80's now that we've been having the 60's and 70's during the nights and days.  Dea

me too.

Scott-

The 540 line showing up!! Woohoo! A sign of changes ahead hopefully!

Notes,

By the way I tried to join your forum a little while ago and never got an email back about it, should I try again?

Bryan

Notes.  I think you have to block out tropical disturbances from the normal weather pattern in our area.  However you did hit a key element in Gary's original LRC which said once the LRC sets up, it's good for any given area on earth.  To me, that was the strongest statement regarding the LRC.  That means, if it still applies, goes for Florida, China, Antartica, Africa, New Orleans, etc.   It's probably best for comprehension if the LRC stayed true to the KC area for now.  And I don't know that the bold statement by Gary here about 2 years ago is still a thought that the LRC works everywhere in the world.  There's never been any written material other than here regarding that fact.  And he believes it, does the new pattern always set up between October and November throughout the world?

My two cents:  I don't think the LRC can be used to predict the frequency or location of tropical weather systems.  This is especially true since the LRC in its strongest form occurs in winter and spring when the westerlies are strong and extend their influence far to the south, and tropical development is at a minimum in the Northern Hemisphere.  In my mind, tropical cyclones are "wild cards" whose influence on the sensible weather at any location can not be predicted far in advance with the LRC, based on the current state of the LRC theory as I understand it.  Tropical cyclones adapt and react to the weather systems around them and therefore they "blend in" with the weather pattern occurring in the mid-latitudes, i.e., turning north and northeast under the influence of a trough in the westerlies like Ike did or stalling under a high pressure area like Fay did.  I think forecasting using the LRC during the tropical weather season is problematic at best even without the presence of tropical cyclones, because the influence of the westerlies at the mid-latitudes is at its weakest, making the LRC pattern difficult to ascertain at times.  Gary, what say you?

Summer was an "A-" Not enough hail and severe weather for me.  There was a lot but not enough.  Now, I am ready for winter weather already....I want to see Kansas City get POUNDED with snow in earnest at the rate of 2 inches per hour overnight to wake up to a wonderful white landscape.  Then I can get the fireplace going, turn on the high def TV, get a ham going in the oven, and kick my feet up.  

Not to get off of the weather topic but did anyone notice your home or office shake or rumble this morning sometime before noon?  I live in NW Olathe and felt it and thought maybe it was some construction going on in my subdivision but everything appeared normal.  It did concern me again when my daughter came home from school and asked if I had felt it because her teacher did and was wondering.  Could it have been a slight earthquake?  Just guessing here...

Sedsinkc, well said regarding the wild cards regarding tropical storms.  Indeed those are "wild cards" and do disrupt the LRC.  Having said that, the LRC can't use tropical storm produced rain in the last 4 weeks in regards to the LRC fading pattern.  However, in Gary's defense, we already had a cold front in place when both tropical storms came into our area.  Without the "wild card" tropical storms, we would have had a relatively average or below average precip.

Yeah, I would say this summer gets a B+.  If only more summers here were like that with not as much heat and humidity.  I'm with everyone else who hates summer and wishes it were over as soon as it started.  This weather pattern is definitely boring, I'm tired of this "Indian Summer" garbage and ready for temps in the 60s.  I just thrive in fall weather like that.  I wish I could turn my air off, but it is still too stuffy outside.  

So your cycling theory doesn't apply to the tropics?

Does it apply to the poles?

Gary said:  "A hurricane ends up being about as significant as a shortwave ejecting out after it moves inland."

I'm not talking about the tropical events' significance here in KC or otherwise over land - but their actual presence in the global circulation.  

When they were churning through the Atlantic and gulf, they were far from as insignificant as a shortwave in our area.  But when I look at a tropical system from August or earlier in September, I cannot find any trace of anything resembling that when I look *back* 50 or 55 days, the purported length of your cycle.  

As GaryB and others have mentioned, you have often repeated that your theory is good for the entire hemisphere..the weather in Europe, the weather in Alaska, the weather in Mexico, etc...but are you now revising the theory to say that the cycling idea is confined to the middle latitudes?

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Notes,

I am not sure exactly what I stated in the blog, but I always meant the LRC exists in the westerlies over the entire northern hemisphere.  It likel exists in the southern hemisphere as well.  The Polor easterlies and the Tropical easterlies may have some interaction and influence, but I doubt it.  There may be some cycling in the tropics, but it is likely separate from what I see in the westerlies.

Gary

Winter was an A-
Spring was a B+
Summer was an A-
Fall so far is an A++

So this year gets an A+

angvic00,
I just checked the USGS website and there were no earthquakes in the greater Kansas City area today. The closest one was East of Missouri's boot heel in TN a week ago. Its magnitude was tiny, 1 something, too small for people to feel. Having lived almost my whole life in Southern California I find the USGS website is quick and accurate when it comes to earthquakes. This does not surprise me as that is their job. I hope this helps.
So does anyone think we will get a stray thunder shower tonight?
Audra

Guy & Gals, here is the bottom line.  The LRC is a global cycle.  It occurs in the northern Hem. & the southern Hem.  The easiest way to see it is with the westerlies here in the northern lats, and with the easterlies in the souther Hem.  Yes I think the tropics play a roll in the pattern.  However, I think the LRC plays more of a roll of where the storms will track, not when and where they will develope.  The LRC is not the only pattern the takes place.  There are others as well.  The tropics by my research mainly follow the MJO, which is another cycle that occurs each year.  I think someone mentioned that pattern earlier in above posts.  However, I do think the LRC takes over where the tropics will track once they get closer to the westerlies here in the northern lats.

Its a work in progress.  As more statistical data in conjunction with other data is available, more will become apparent in what/where/when/why the LRC is and its impact.  

To reiterate, I find it promising that this type of discussion exists on this topic.  It is healthy to share and debate so long as research can continue and grow with the thoughts/ideas shared regarding this topic.

I am not sure anything is perfectly defined, but I am confident with the passion and research that is contributed, we will be able to develop some solid empirical evidence in the near future!