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well i will be at work tonight but i told my wife to watch your special on you becoming a pack leader we watch his show all the time. snow what is that oh i know it the stuff that buried st joe last year .have a great day gary

Gary,

As I read these maps with troughs in both the east and west, we may have a period of cooler fall type weather followed by a warm up with dry conditions...

Bob

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Bob,

It certainly isn't a wet pattern for the next week or so, but then who knows about after 7 days.  It is changing every few hours. 

Gary,

Going forward and looking at maps, what do I need to look for on these developing maps that would be the right place for optimum snowfall in SE metro? Yes, my season is right around the corner and SNOW is all about it.
Thanks, have a great post summer day!

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As soon as we have a set-up for possible snow I will go into more detail.  Right now, it isn't even close, with the exception of above 7,000 feet out west.

Gary

56 degrees this morning...considerably cooler than kci...

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Did you have any fog?  There was some very low lying fog right on the ground about 10 feet thick in spots. 

Gary

Mmmmmm snow....I can not wait!! Maybe we will have a October surprise?? That would be nice. I am ready for a first freeze....these mosquito's could carry me away they are so big down here. Looking forward to the Dog Whisperer segment tonight. Have a great day!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

I hope you enjoy the segment we put together.  It is only around 3 minutes long, it really could be 20 minutes long.  We may post some of the raw unedited parts of my interview with him on our website.

Gary

Are you ready for that first chance of snow? not this already

Can't we enjoy these last few days of sun and warmth without being reminded of what's around the corner.  argh!

Bring on the snow!  I would really like if the second map was correct because that would mean some nice fall time weather in our part of the country.  I really wish this summer weather would get out of here!

Okay, maybe I AM glad that I've packed for cooler temps for when I come home from the hospital next week (after the baby comes!) If the cooler temps continue to Friday or Saturday, I'll need those jeans and sweatshirt!!!

I'm glad it's going to start getting cooler. I love the autumn season--cooler nights, shorter days, beautiful trees--and the bugs go away! Right now, I'm not too concerned about the first snowflakes--I just want to know about the first frost to kill off my husband's and my allergies!!!!!

Yesterday morning was fun, good old summerlike thunderstorm area to move through, and now it is time for the roulette wheel to start spinning this year, this last years LRC was a very good one for St. Joe, I would give the LRC we just had a 95% or an A for exiting weather, last winter really outdid it self up here with the heavy snow, even a borderline blizzard following an ice storm, and snow pretty much at least once a week almost every week of the winter. Then spring and summer had nice rain and thunderstorm set -ups. So I know not to get too excited about this new one, but even in bad LRC's there are always unique twists and turns once in a while!  (oh, yea and thundersnow TWICE in our area last winter)... that may make it a 95.5% for the grade now that I think about it;)

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Nick,

Maybe the ball will land in the right spot.  Yes, last year was exciting, but we were still west of the mean trough, but close enough for all of the excitement.  Maybe, we will get a trough just west of us this year.  But the chance is still rather slim.  The wheel is spinning.  Everyone has to realize that I don't believe the weather pattern is even close to setting up yet.  It is about two to three weeks from now that really becomes important.

Gary

Gary, what is his secret? I would love to know how this "pack leader" thing works. I have watched Cesar's show a few times and I am amazed at how you have this dog that is just out of control and just within 15 minutes the dog is totally changed. I try to do some of his "calm assertiveness" and my 7 month old beagle just looks at me like I'm crazy and carries on...

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This is what I will likely talk about at the end of the piece. As Cesar says, "you have to be the pack leader 100%".  This means never giving in to your dog.....UNTIL rehabilitation is achieved.  Then, you can give in a bit.  This means EXERSIZE, DISCIPLINE, AFFECTION.  EVERYDAY! 

Gary

yes there was a little fog, but not a lot.

so why do those maps you posted specifically suggest the changing of the pattern? we have had more amplified solutions occur already this fall...what makes the difference now?

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Murph,

All of the longwave features from this past year "appear" to be wiped out in the next few days to two weeks on the models. We still have to see it happen in real time though.  But, shortwaves and longwaves are showing very different patterns in the last few runs.  I don't want to go into to much detail as we have to experience it first.

Gary

Looking forward to the 10 p.m. show!

I read the blog a couple of times, and still looking for the defiition of what the major changes are.

I see that Gary mentions that they are showing up, but want to know what "they" are and where "they" are "showing up".

We have seen maps of how one pattern matches another, maybe we can see a map now of how one map does NOT match the prior cycle?

Just some ideas.  Not debating what is happening or where, just trying to clarify.

The map above kinda looks familiar...call me crazy...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20080819.html

The 240hr above doesn't look to far out of whack to me..needs a bit of refinement as we get closer, but the GFS isn't too bad.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20080824.html

For grins, I looked at the blog on August 24th, which would seem to match October 5th potential.  

First observation was what was written in that blog - "The late August and September version of the pattern may be closely related to what we just experienced, and if we discover that this is truely the case then we will be able to make a forecast for early fall. But, something MAJOR happens after September and as we move into October"

--I wonder what that MAJOR thing is?  If major, can others see it?  It must be major to change one pattern quickly to another.  I will be watching for something MAJOR.  Maybe like a huge sun spot or an earthquake or something.

Eyes wide open.

Here is the most exciting for me, personally -

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_384l.gif

related to

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20080829.html

This leads up to the fun just out of reach of the GFS right now.  Five days afterwards...brrrr.....

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Did you read the story that I just posted about the sunspot activity? 

And, (from Gary), remember the pattern that will exist next year will begin setting up in the next two to six weeks, not yet.  It is just now that enough energy is developing to wipe out whatever has existed and is still there today from last year's LRC.

Jeremy

Dave C --"I try to do some of his "calm assertiveness" and my 7 month old beagle just looks at me like I'm crazy and carries on... "

Funny, my 6 1/2 month old Chocolate Lab does the same thing!!! My husband sometimes has to reinforce what I've just told my dog to do, and I feel I'm pretty assertive... (Maybe it's a puppy thing...)

Gary, looking forward to seeing your little special tonight... I hope I can stay awake for it and remember that it's on... :)

From the information below it would appear the first freeze for the KC area averages to be in mid-October.

http://www.oznet.ksu.edu/wdl/freeze1.htm

jeremy, the links scott posted would suffice, aug 25th looks like a carbon copy...

what story did you post, jeremy? where is it?

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Here it is...

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/weathernews/story.aspx?content_id=6408660b-7c0e-4dd9-bc67-1c58b349ed78

Jeremy

nevermind, i found it.  i was hoping to see you explain your take on the significance of sunspots and their effects upon the earth.  its a late start for the new sunspot cycle, huh? wasnt it supposed to start late last year?

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I haven't studied the topic enough to give a concrete opinion on the effect's on earth.  And I think there is a lot of uncertainty even with those that have tried to study the effects.

Jeremy

Forget the meteorological applications to your post, I'm just trying to follow your logic ....

you say about the 10-day GFS prog:

"I wouldn't spend more than 5 seconds analyzing the map below because it is likely very wrong with many errors.  The new data coming out right now likely has a very different solution."

But you're using that same 10-day GFS prog to show that the pattern is changing. So ... what if, as you accurately say, the new data has a very different solution ?
In other words, what if it looks like the 7 day ?  Is the pattern still changing (according to your measuring stick) ?

Look, you're right to point out that we'll be underneath a flow next week that has notably different characteristics than what we've got now.  But, in the larger context, two of the largest drivers of North-American low frequency variability (El Nino  on interannual timescales, and the MJO  on subseasonal frequencies) are not behaving that differently than they were over the past 6-12 months.

The note by pvt-murphy has merit here ... when he asks, "what really looks so different ? "

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It doesn't really look different.  Just a little bit, perhaps.  This is not the new pattern. I am really just trying to show how there is more energy going into the pattern, which will be changing soon.  As soon as there are obvious differences going on I will point them out.  It doesn't matter what last nights GFS does, or what we see in today's new model runs.  What really matters is what actually happens. So, let's just go day by day.

El Nino and MJO, plus other oscillations and anomalies may have an impact in the developing LRC.  But, I strongly believe that they may have a small influence as something else, yet to be determined, is going on to create the new weather pattern, and why I believe it becomes established and begins cycling.  El Nino or La Nina can begin and end during a season, but the LRC can be shown to continue through these changes.  There may be influences, but the pattern, shortwaves and longwaves, don't change their "identity" while these other influences go through phases.

Gary

Jeremy - I read your stories everytime you post them.  I love the weather stories.  I would love if you all could do several a day!

Perhaps us bloggers can start a movement to have many of these done a day to educate us and all that participate!

I guess until the new pattern emerges, pvt and I [and perhaps others] will continue on with this false/impossible current cycle to look ahead, that while validating, cannot possibly validate.

LOL.

Oh..and not to leave anyone out, let me close with the following thought -

I kid, I kid.

HA

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If there is a 25th hour added to the day I'll make sure to post more stories to the web:)

Jeremy

I was reading this news article and was wondering if this could impact or already has had an impact on our weather.  



Solar wind weakest since beginning of space age


The intensity of the sun's million-mile-per-hour solar wind has dropped to its lowest levels since accurate records began half a century ago, scientists say.

Measurements of the cosmic blasts of radiation, ejected from the sun's upper atmosphere, were made with the Ulysses spacecraft, a joint mission between NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA).

The solar wind "inflates a protective bubble, or heliosphere, around the solar system," which protects the inner planets against the radiation from other stars, said Dave McComas, Ulysses' solar wind principal investigator and senior executive director at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas.

"With the solar wind at an all-time low, there is an excellent chance the heliosphere will diminish in size and strength," said Ed Smith, NASA's Ulysses project scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

"If that occurs, more galactic cosmic rays will make it into the inner part of our solar system," added Smith.

Scientists say the weakening of solar wind appears to be due to changes in the sun's magnetic field, but the causes of these changes are unknown.

The weakened solar activity can be beneficial because it slows satellites around the Earth, allowing them to remain in orbit longer.

The sun normally experiences 11-year-cycles between periods of great activity and lesser activity.

But, Smith said, the Ulysses mission's recent results, published in Geophysical Research Letters, show that "we are in a period of minimal activity that has stretched on longer than anyone anticipated."

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080924193222.3r9aw25a&show_article=1

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I saw that article too.  I think it was updated somewhere and also added in the recent sunspot activity.  I don't think there is a short term impact on our weather...   If this is the weakest the solar wind has been then we don't have much data to compare the effects on Earth too.  In other words if there is a direct result on our weather from the change in the solar wind.

Jeremy

 
kcwxguy said:

We have seen maps of how one pattern matches another, maybe we can see a map now of how one map does NOT match the prior cycle?

--

I believe a few of us have actually been doing that for a long while now....  

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Notes,

As we go into the new pattern, and especially as we move into January I would love to have this debate with you.  It would be a great way to show how the pattern exists and is cycling when I can show you how it does fit when you are thinking it doesn't.  Let's be patient.

Gary

I was wondering if the LRC is significantly different year after year or if the cylce only changes slightly.  It would be interesting to test historical data as well as using the LRC to help with forecasts.  If you understood the cycle for the past hundred years do you think that would help in predicting with a certain degree of accuracy what the weather will be like five years from now?

Another part of the cylcle that I question is whether or not it is a localized or worldwide event.  Can you see the formation of the next cycle by analyzing what is currently happening in Asia or other parts of the world at the same latitude?

So...on Tuesday we bit the bullett and paid $200 to have freon put back into our AC to get us through the rest of the warm temperatures. Apparently the leak we had (we knew we had it, just dont know where) is bigger than we thought, and in about 24 hours the freon was emptied and the ac no longer blows out cold air.

The reason for all of that is because, I know that now through Sunday its supposed to stay warm and in the 80's, and then I see nice 60-70 degree weather.  What are the chances that we may have seen almost the end of the stretches of 80's? Our house can get very warm if the temp is much above 80.

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I think in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe of next week we see a cool down.  I wouldn't rule out more 80s down the road...but they should be less frequent very soon:)

Jeremy

Notes - always a critic.  LOL.  Of anyone, I think you probably have gotten the benefit of seeing the most data supporting the cycle.  To that end, there is often a great deal of discussion, but little provided back to help the definition.

Everyone is entitled to believe or disbelieve, but I would think for the duration that you have followed this theory, and the efforts you have shown in critique and discussion, you would have given up long ago if you didn't see something that still keeps your interest.

I can't think the banter alone would be valuable enough to you...I have to think there is something beyond the social interaction that has even a glimpse of merit.

Perhaps I am reading too much into it.   Also, as a side note, waiting for information to be spoonfed to truly test if there is validity in this forum probably is going to be a long road to travel.  Taking time to test with your own data may be more fruitful in final analysis.  I do give you kudos for the looping animated gif you produced, but beyond that - ?

Anyway, much still to learn..and much yet to prove..no doubt.

;-)

Scott -

Reading to much into my responses?  Indeed you have.  I'm not nearly as committed to this thing as you are, nor am I likely to ever be.  It is a source of stimulating conversation and thought for me - but beyond that, it isn't a horse I'm ready to hitch my cart to.

And "kudos for the animated gif, but beyond that - ?"  Huh?  It seems to me that you usually end most of your replies to my comments with something along the lines of "this is the kind of valuable critique and discussion that this theory NEEDS to get it going!" and other such indications of validity and props for my input... but those are suddenly relinquished to a "beyond that - ?".

If we're trying to measure up our input on this cycling theory, I'd argue that my critical analysis has been more valuable than the false propping up of the theory under blind belief and "YES - it is just the same as it was before!!!!11" comments that seem so pervasive around here.  If you're going to dismiss my analysis of this theory as a question mark, it seems your own additions to this theory should be up for scrutiny as well.  

Other than your string of attempts (arguably mis-labeled as "quantitative") at verification of this - most of which Lezak himself has discounted or ignored, how has the theory evolved/changed over the past couple of years under your input?  Other than another guy to blow Gary's trumpet on this thing, what specifically can you point to?  Lezak seems to discount out of hand most of your *new* ideas about it - a surface cycle, when it starts/ends, what causes it, and even the length this past season.  What have you brought that he's folded in to the idea?

Notes,

Ha, seems I raised someone's ire.  Nice spray of mud slinging.  'Tis the political season.  

To address your response of the critique/discussion:

Your input is valuable in spawning conversation.  No doubt.  In fact, in full disclosure, I have reached out to you individually on many accounts for your thoughts.  That said, the relentless critique without any solution or alternative theory isn't much more solid.

I appreciate it is for those that make the claim to provide the evidence.  And while it isn't up to your approval at this point, efforts are being made, and will continue.  

As far as scrutiny in my research:

I welcome the scrutiny.  I have many times published my beliefs and openly promoted my blog to read and comment.  I have no fear of that.  Please, bring on the critique.  Not only have I asked for it, but tried many times to encourage you and others to do so.  It is through this open dialogue that things can be understood, discussed and otherwise learned.

If you would like to continue the discussion on quantitative analysis, I am more than willing.  I will take my trending, regression testing, and hypothesis testing and we will see how that lines up to a single looping gif.  

In addition, your assertion of being a shill is somewhat short sided.  Perhaps before your arrival to the blog, you missed the endless entries of my critique of the theory.  Those that have been around for awhile certainly can attest.  Instead of critiquing because of a lack of spoonfed evidence, I put in the hours to prove or disprove it myself.  Have you done this?  

Seems more scientific to take the idea, work the data, put in the analysis and see it for what it is -real or not real -rather than sideline sniping because the provided data isn't how you want to see it.

Regarding Lezak approval:

Oddly, I don't need Gary or anyone else to really agree or disagree with what I observe.  I am here to learn as many of us are.  I will continue to ask the questions, to stretch, pull or otherwise challenge what I don't understand.  Seems perhaps this spirit of exploration is lost on you regarding this theory, leaving you on the sideline now offering passing one liners.

Cheers.

yikes!! guys, may i suggest you take this one offline, or to your own blogs? your point-counterpoint on the LRC is interesting - with both of you bringing detailed observations and questions to the table which has been good for all of us - but not when you start bickering at each other. imo of course... - mike

Scott,

I'm not interested in getting into some e-fight with you, so I won't go point by point, other than to say you and many others have repeatedly welcomed my critique and I have no intention of withholding my input whenever I'm in the mood.

You mentioned "the relentless critique without any solution or alternative theory isn't much more solid" - but you of all people have repeatedly stated that the burden is most certainly NOT on me to show a "solution" or alternative (in fact I have - the alternative is this little thing called chaos) - the burden is on those of you purporting a cycling theory to provide the conclusive evidence.  

For claiming you do not need others' approval, I'm a bit surprised by how frequently you have sought it out from myself, Gary, and others.  

Notes, I think you are very bright and I value your thoughts.  To that end, if I didn't I wouldn't bother.

We will agree to disagree. ;-)

Did you just wink at me Scott?  Hmmm...

Yeah - agree to disagree for now.  That works for me.

Geez, guys, it's just weather.  Just MHO.  

What happened to the 60's that were in the forecast for the 1st of the week??  I was really looking forward to the cooler days.....

So was I!!!  I was so excited to be done with summer and now evidently it is still hanging around.  I just want fall to be here!  He didn't give any explanation as to why those 60s disappeared.  

I hope we have a warm fall but when November gets here, BRING ON THE SNOW! and a snowy winter as well! not so much brutally cold though. and I'd like some sleet too.