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Cooler & Less Humid Air Arrives...Changing Pattern...First Snow!

Watch NBC Action News HD at 5, 6, & 10 p.m. for the latest on this week's cooldown!

Happy Monday bloggers!  A quick moving shot of rain pushed through parts of the area this morning. The metro had a few rumbles of thunder and some rain, but totals were generally less than 0.10".

The biggest change has been in the form of drier air working in and also cooler temperatures.  Look at the surface map from this afternoon.  Dewpoints are still around 60 in Kansas City, but drier 30s are not far away in Nebraska and Iowa!

 

Lows the next several nights will be in the 40s, with likely 2 or 3 days with highs in the 60s.  September was characterized by a wet and cool first half, and then a warmer and dry second half.  When it is all said and done the average monthly temperature will be about 1.5 degrees below average.  Rainfall totaled 9.82" at KCI making this the 6th wettest September of all-time! 

Looking at the 18Z GFS and also comparing it to previous runs the confidence in the forecast heading into this weekend and even early next week is somewhat low.  We are close to a trough over the Great Lakes, a possible warm front near the surface, and an upper low to our west.  The upper level flow looks pretty complex by this weekend.  Here is the 500mb map for Sunday.

It will be interesting to see how close the 500mb map on Sunday really comes to the forecast from today's GFS. 

I noticed a few people wishing for snow already in the blog.  Well there is snow...but it was detected falling from the Martian sky by the Phoenix Lander.  Here's the story:

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/weathernews/story.aspx?content_id=eb576243-4280-4516-94b4-e316d9076804

Have a great night and try to enjoy these cool and crisp Fall days!

Jeremy 

Published Monday, September 29, 2008 2:24 PM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

Randy KD0FFO said:

and now we re back to another boring weather period for the rest of the week. lol.
September 29, 2008 3:02 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I still want to know if the darkish skies are due to rain or the DOW falling over 700 points. :)
September 29, 2008 3:06 PM
 

Randy KD0FFO said:

If anyone is interested and actually wants to drive a few hours down to Norman, Ok. This looks like it would be really worth it. I myself will probably be there.

The National Weather Festival is set for November 8th from 9am until 1pm at the National Weather Center in Norman. This free event features activities for the entire family, weather balloon launches, presentations, etc.

One of the highlights of the festival is the storm chaser car show, and we are looking for chasers/spotters who would like to enter their vehicle in this year's show. There will be a variety of prizes and it's a great way to show off the hard work you've put into your vehicle and to help educate people about what chasers/spotters do.

For more information about the car show and the festival, visit http://www.norman.noaa.gov/events/nwf08/ (the registration link will be added soon).

******************

Now that's a car show I'd like to attend :)

Jeremy

September 29, 2008 3:09 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

thats a big IF on clouds for wed, jeremy...

i dont think this week will be boring at all.  there will be a couple fronts to keep an eye on.  

****************

PVT...I was listing possible things that can impact a big change in the forecast.  I was not saying there would be cloudy skies on Wednesday.  Right now clouds don't look to be an issue for Wednesday.  It will be cool though.  I think the biggest question is late in the week and next weekend how a trough in the Great Lakes tracks/digs/etc.  It could easily temper our thinking of a warmer forecast by next weekend.

Jeremy

September 29, 2008 4:08 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Randy, I prefer the Severe Storm Workshop in Norman in Late Feb/early March.  Much more bang for the buck.  This will be my third/forth time this upcoming year...pretty insightful - and often you see the same people with the same chase vehicles.  LOL.

***************

If I ever had a free couple of days I'd love to go.

Jeremy

September 29, 2008 4:51 PM
 

Alden said:

Most people might disagree with me, but I'm ready for some snow!
September 29, 2008 7:35 PM
 

Randy KD0FFO said:

i dont disagree! i want snow too, but let me have one or two more thunderstorms first to get that out of my system.
September 29, 2008 8:03 PM
 

juba said:

I want snow to, don't like it when thehighs are this close to 70, no Heating or A.C.
September 29, 2008 8:30 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

FIRST SNOW!! Jeremy...That was a total tease!
September 29, 2008 9:29 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

I want snow, but I don't want to see the Hummingbirds leave! :(
September 29, 2008 9:52 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

October 27th for the first snow


September 29, 2008 10:04 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

i wasnt suggesting you were saying clouds on wednesday jeremy, i was pointing out the possibility of there actually being some cloudcover....although the dewpoints are getting squashed pretty far south/east...it may be difficult to get some clouds afterall.  there could be enough left over moisture from the green grass, fields, etc. to get some clouds going on wed, doubt it though.

at least it would likely lead to slightly cooler nights the next few days.  get rid of those mosquitoes.  so far the coolest i have gotten was 44 degrees a couple weeks ago.  i am pretty sure we will beat it by thursday morning, even at kci. ***************** Thursday looks pretty chilly in the morning. Probably upper 30s near the MO/IA border. Low 40s in the metro. Next weekend looks tricky right now. Jeremy
September 29, 2008 10:14 PM
 

C in Raymore said:

oh goodness I sure hope rain does not get added to the forecast on Saturday. Its my favorite festival day. Sure hope that its a nice cool fall day.

sure don't like the words warm airs tries to move in and could cause storms :(
September 29, 2008 10:27 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Jeremy, you have come along way.  Your first blog entries were...well..even your own standards, perhaps simplistic.  Lately, I have commented on how well your blogs have progressed.  They are a pleasure to read.  This one tops them all.

We get good analysis, you dropped in a nice tease, and more subtle, but not overlooked, the nice link to drive traffic to the web story.  You covered all your bases with this.  Very nice.  In addition, the depth and method of writing looks very Gary-esque.  You certainly are a quick study and have done a tremendous job...

Just thought I would drop that out there.  Now, we will push you to commit more on your thoughts of the LRC.  First, you wouldn't as you wanted to see it...fair enough, but enough time has gone by, you have indicated that it is something that the team uses to forecast...and you are part of the team, so I must assume you accept it...so now, perhaps a bit more of Jeremy's thoughts on the LRC...

Not necessarily now..but soon I hope to hear your thoughts.  Keep up the good work, Jeremy. **************** Thanks...when I fill in for Gary the second half of October I will give more thoughts... Jeremy
September 29, 2008 10:44 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

KansasPatriot said:
October 27th for the first snow


Where and how much?
September 29, 2008 10:45 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

Odd, I haven't seen any hummingbirds today, or yesterday for that matter.  Anyone seen any the past 2 days?
As to the snow... it & the cold can wait til the holidays.  Has anyone noticed how much MGE raised their gas prices?  I need to stock up on blankets and cocoa, cause that furnace may go into mothballs this winter.  Yikes.
September 29, 2008 10:58 PM
 

LRCfan said:

speaking of snow when does the snowflake contest start? ******************** I would ask Gary about the snowflake contest. I would expect it to start before he leaves for a couple of weeks in mid-October. Jeremy
September 29, 2008 10:58 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Leawood's first inch.


did the contest start yet?
September 29, 2008 11:25 PM
 

stjoeattorney said:

Well light scattered frost in St Joseph.  My tmp 38.2 degrees.
September 30, 2008 8:26 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

45 this morning...not too bad at all i thought...until stjoeattorney reported frost with a temp in the 30's.  now i feel slighted. ;/

***************

Looks like KCI was 47.  Was the frost in the freezer in St. Joe?  Just kidding.

Jeremy

September 30, 2008 8:37 AM
 

momof3 said:

I just found the wooliest caterpillar I have ever seen!!!!!  YAY!!!!!!!!  Bring on lots and lots of snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

***************

Wouldn't that mean cold if you buy the caterpillar theory?  Cold, but maybe not snowy:)

Jeremy

September 30, 2008 9:54 AM
 

juba said:

momof3

Last year I found two caterpillars playing in the first snow!
September 30, 2008 1:56 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Does anybody know where I can find 3 weather Articles that deal with power - who has it, who lacks it, what they do with it, and/or how it affects them? I'm doing a Literary Analysis.
September 30, 2008 2:45 PM
 

momof3 said:

I think that it does mean cold but I will take it a little further and say that lots of cold air will bring lots of snow!!!  Juba-how neat is that!

************

I'd rather not hear 'lots' in the same sentence as cold or snow:)

Jeremy

September 30, 2008 2:56 PM
 

jlswildcat said:

I am SO ready.  Bring on LOTS of snow!
September 30, 2008 6:25 PM
 

scully said:

Me too!! YAY SNOW!!!!  Boo on Jeremy for not wanting to hear 'lots' in the same sentence as 'cold' or 'snow'.  Come on, Jeremy! You know you want a dastardly cold winter, don't lie to us.  :)  I am really liking this fall weather, finally FINALLY got to turn the A/C off.   Let's hope we've seen the last of temps in the 80s.

*****************

With the low dropping into the Rockies or Southwest we should see a warm-up this weekend.  There is a chance at 80 or better.  We went upper 70s one day right now.

Jeremy

September 30, 2008 7:23 PM
 

DPannell said:

I'm with you Jeremy.  All the devastation that snow causes, car accidents, people falling, heart attacks from those shoveling who shouldn't.  I am definitely not hoping for lots of snow.  The cold is just as bad, people dying that can't afford to properly heat their homes, exposure for the homeless, exposure for mistreated pets, high energy bills...the list goes on and on.  No, I dont' hope for lots of cold and snow.  Everything in moderation...and when it comes to cold and snow, I could personally skip it all.  
Hoping for endless summer ....
--deb
September 30, 2008 9:05 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

HAPPY OCTOBER!
I guess it's September Statistics day now! ***************** Nick, We'll show the September numbers on the newscasts tonight! Jeremy
October 1, 2008 1:32 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well it is just too early to say exactly how it will play out, but the energy that looks to slam the west part of the country this weekend into next week looks to be a real game changer. It will be interesting to see how it sets up.
October 1, 2008 1:54 AM
 

juba said:

I want lots of wet lasting snow!
October 1, 2008 6:09 AM
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