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Rain spreading north....updated

Good afternoon everyone,

Our first measurable rain of October is about to happen for everyone.  A band of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will move across our region later this afternoon and evening.  There may be additional periods of rain into Tuesday.  We will have all of the details on NBC Action News at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight.

Wow, that was a ridiculously light band of rain showers.  There are a few other bands of showers widely scattered through the viewing area, but it is not impressive at all. 

The new data on the weekend storm developing over the west has trended with the European model solution.  The storm will likely dig hard into the western United States, and if this happens it will be strikingly different than what has happened during the past year.  The LRC 2007-2008 would dig this storm and slide it into the Rockies. So, if it indeed does close off over the southwestern United States it would be a strong indication of something different starting to happen.  I lean in this new GFS solution as it agrees with the ECMWF and Canadian models.  This would slow down the cold front and we would warm up dramatically later this week into the weekend.  I will go into much more detail tonight at 10 PM and in the blog Tuesday morning.  Brett Anthony will be covering these new developments on NBC Action News beginning at 5 AM.

Gary

Published Monday, October 06, 2008 2:43 PM by glezak

Comments

 

Jhwk33 said:

Gary,

I know it is still a way out but what is the preliminary forecast for Saturday?  It is Christmas in October day (teams do work for people who can not afford it), and we are working on someones house all day on Saturday.

Thanks!

Brent
October 6, 2008 3:15 PM
 

RDub said:

I'm rooting for a dry slot this weekend...my friend's annual fall party and campout is this weekend. Won't be any fun in the rain!

Dry-Slot! Dry-Slot! Dry-slot!
October 6, 2008 3:39 PM
 

juba said:

Its raining pretty steady, butnot heavy or light, regular blockbuster winter rain.
October 6, 2008 3:39 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Gary as of 3:50PM we have 0.53" here in rural McLouth, KS
October 6, 2008 3:53 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Carryover from earlier:

Scott -

So are you pretty certain we're on a 40-day weather rotation now?

What early September event is analagous to the upcoming weekend storm?

Additionally and separately, do you have confidence that the deluge of September 12th (that was the day that much of the viewing area got several inches from a widespread synoptic-scale event - not just discrete convection) will repeat on October 22nd?
October 6, 2008 4:13 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Interesting weather report.  Coldest start to winter in Fairbanks, AK in 16 years.

Full content:

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=ak&prodtype=public



000
NOAK49 PAFG 060945
PNSAFG
AKZ222-062145-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 AM AKDT MON OCT 6 2008

...UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES AT FAIRBANKS...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 31 DEGREES. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THIS FALL THAT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FAILED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. ON AVERAGE THE
DATE OF THE FIRST DAY WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING IS
OCTOBER 11TH. SO FAR THIS MONTH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE OF 38
DEGREES WAS OBSERVED ON THE 2ND.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH OF 27.1 DEGREES IS 8.2
DEGREES BELOW THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE. IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST FIRST 5
DAYS OF THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SINCE 1992.

$$

October 6, 2008 4:25 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Tropical Storm Marco looks so cool. It is nice and symmetrical with winds of 65 mph, but it is extremely tiny.

Looks like it will hit Mexico as a Cat 1 sometime late Tuesday or early Wednesday. I hope it forms an eye, that would be even cooler looking.

Alex
October 6, 2008 4:29 PM
 

HillsdaleBruce said:

Hillsdale Lake was right in the middle of the narrow heavy rain path.  A radar predicted precip site estimated 1.0 inch but I had just under 1.3 in my accu-rite rain gauge 100' from any structures.  Perfect for all the grass seed and fertilizer I just put out.  And, thanks for the reply yesterday Gary but once in 5 digits is a coincidence, twice is fate!  LOL.
October 6, 2008 4:31 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Rain...what rain, all I got was a sprinkle. The sun is out and has been for awhile. I hope we get a chance for more later. We are missing out yet again. Everything is to the west and north just like last time. Errrr!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
October 6, 2008 4:31 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Look at its Tropical Storm force wind field:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200813_wind.html#a_topad

TINY!...lol
October 6, 2008 4:40 PM
 

dcbriley said:

Olathe - 16:38

As of above time we have received 1.06 inches of rain in the last hour.  Continues to rain lightly.
October 6, 2008 4:41 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

Here's an interesting climatological stat.  While Kansas City has experienced below average monthly temperatures for much of this past year, or LRC, Dallas-Fort Worth has had 14 months in a row with above average temperatures as of Sept. '08.  Kind of interesting, considering KC and DFW are roughly north and south of each other, which would put them in similar locations relative to the troughs and ridges of the overall recurring longwave pattern.
October 6, 2008 4:47 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Notes – why would you be asking me these things?  We both know the LRC is in transition and that the cycle cannot yet be determined.

That said, I think, that we are in about 41-43 day cycle.  It may move a day or two [it is still early – err impossible to tell]

You can do the maps yourself for this weekend, the GFS still doesn’t have it right, so it will look a bit weird.

Here is just 48 hrs out which is much clearer to see…

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20080826.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

So, to answer the Sept. 12th question, yes, I expect that a similar look may occur again..thus a cycle.  I would put it closer to October 25th.
October 6, 2008 4:50 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

It's fascinating to compare the size of Marco and Ike.  Marco's tropical storm force wind field is at most 60 miles across, while Ike's was over 500 miles across!
October 6, 2008 4:51 PM
 

jfgdnr said:

As of 5pm.....Rain total near 128th & Mur-len, Olathe, Kansas ....    1.0"   !!!
October 6, 2008 5:03 PM
 

Tony Baker said:

As of 5:40pm, we've received .52 inches of rain 2 miles south of Reno.
October 6, 2008 5:40 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Update for you Gary, as of 5;50PM we now have 0.92" here in rural McLouth KS.  Sorry you aren't getting as much rain as you expected in the city.  But we got it for you.  Some we needed, not this much though.  But any amount at all would have interfered with the corn harvest and it has.
October 6, 2008 5:57 PM
 

Mark M said:

As of 6 PM 0.45" in Western KCK.
October 6, 2008 6:14 PM
 

sandy said:

Hiawatha - As of 6pm 1"
October 6, 2008 6:36 PM
 

frigate said:

.17 here in SW Grain Valley, looks like the rain really weakended and fell apart once it got to KC. Hopefully some more later tonight or tomorrow or is this it/

Jeff
October 6, 2008 7:00 PM
 

stormlover said:

sure hope that isn't it for the rain.  I got just shy of .25.  My yard needs a lot more than that!!  Isn't there more?  I thought there was supposed to be a second part later tonight.

-----------------

There is nothing heading our way right now.  It won't be much if it rains on Tuesday, at least that is how I feel right now.

Gary

October 6, 2008 7:29 PM
 

juba said:

About 3.1" of rain at Johnson County Executive Airport. I wanted more rain than this?!?!?!?!? *************** You mean 0.31"? Don't think there was 3.10". Jeremy
October 6, 2008 8:16 PM
 

juba said:

Marco looks to be a VERY small TS, with 65 Mph wind, the ?NHC forecasts it to get to 70 mph. That storm is tiney winey winy.
October 6, 2008 8:20 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well it rained pretty good while I was at work today, now it is just damp and warm, as for the next storm well, trends, trends , trends...
October 6, 2008 8:43 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Well if we are done rain wise, all I can say is what a jip!
Audra in Lee's Summit
October 6, 2008 8:52 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

i am curious what constitutes a trend.  because, the solution you speak of would be an outlier in the scheme of recent gfs runs, not a trend...now that being said, the euro has had the best handle on the storms this fall...which has been going on about a month and a half now.
October 6, 2008 9:04 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

btw, the rain isnt over, look at the expanding rain shield down near wichita heading north east.  
October 6, 2008 9:06 PM
 

farmgirl said:

The moon and stars are out in La Cygne with a pretty stiff southerly breeze. Is the rain over???
October 6, 2008 9:22 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Olathe North HS- 0.81"

We didn't have light showers, it was HEAVY!
October 6, 2008 9:36 PM
 

JohnsonFarms said:

Bendena, KS received 0.88 inches of rain so far today!

Thanks,

Doug
October 6, 2008 9:38 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well kind of turning into an irritating event in terms of getting a lot of rain, then again this whole storm seems kind of out of place, it is so "thin" looking at the 500 mbar level and it seems to want to try and fall into the old long term trough but it is finding out that LRC 07/08 is closed and it is confused.
October 7, 2008 12:46 AM
 

scully said:

It rained cats and dogs out here in Olathe this afternoon.  Unbelievable.  Most definitely not light showers.  I was lucky to be able to go out for my power walk tonight.  I was thinking the treadmill would be about it tonight.  
October 7, 2008 12:54 AM
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