Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern is about to become much more energetic. Energy is now coming across the western states and this will eventually evolve and develop into a storm system in the plains on Wednesday night. Ahead of this storm we are experiencing a nice warm up. It is not unusual to warm up in November. Last year it was 70 degrees or higher three different days, including 76 degrees on November 19th and then two days later we had our first snowflakes with less than one inch accumulation on the 21st. We have entered into the time of the year where we can have rather dramatic temperature changes and stronger storm systems. This may be about to happen in the next two weeks. Look below at the energy coming into the west coast during the next 24 hours:
The energy coming into the west coast will evolve into a storm system over the plains. It isn't really a storm you can track by visually seeing it in the Pacific right now. It is a series of smaller waves that will eventually carve out a trough and upper low as they combine into a storm by sometime late Wednesday. The way this storm develops is another factor into figuring out what is going to happen this winter with our storm systems. So, let's pay very close attention. The next map is valid Election Day night when we will likely have elected our next President of the United States. A trough has been carved out by this time:
Between Tuesday night and Wednesday night an upper low will likely form just northwest of Kansas City over Nebraska. How this storm forms aloft will signficantly influence how the storm forms at the surface. Look below at the 500 mb (18,000 feet up) forecast valid Thursday morning at 6 AM:
As the upper low forms the front will slow down and start to produce thunderstorms. There is a very good chance of rain with some thunderstorms possible by sometime Wednesday night into early Thursday. Any chance of snow will be north and west of the upper level low over the Dakota's and Rockies.
The weather pattern for the winter is likely just about set, but what is it? We are leaning strongly in the direction of an energetic weather pattern where storm systems may be intensifying in the plains states. Let's all watch closely how this storm develops, moves in and lifts out. And watch the next two weeks very carefully as we see some colder air masses begin developing over Canada with the evolution of some split flow aloft aloft. There is a lot to consider when we look at this developing weather pattern. The LRC could have landed on the right spot for an exciting weather pattern this winter. One thing for sure, it is very different than last year and there are characteristics to this pattern that are quite unique. I just haven't pinned down what we think of it all yet. Our winter forecast will be on NBC Action News on November 24th, three weeks from tonight.
We asked the question over the weekend on whether you wanted a cold and stormy winter. And, the results were 59% in favor of the cold and stormy winter season. Our first snowflakes may fall this month and you still have time to enter the snowflake contest. The deadline for entries is this Saturday. Our weather team will be making our predictions by Friday.
Have a great start to your week!
Gary