Good morning bloggers,
We have a new president! We have a new weather pattern. The LRC is revealing much more of its identity as another storm system approaches the region. This is a very complex & energetic weather pattern that will be cycling from now through the winter, spring, and into the summer. Our analysis of this developing weather pattern continues as there is a lot more work to do. The NBC Action News Winter Forecast will be issued on November 24th.
A storm is approaching the plains today and there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight. The model trends have been for a slowing down of the eastward progression of this storm today and tonight. It now appears there is really no chance of any severe weather during the day, and just a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight with wind as the main threat later tonight. We are not in the right spot for any lifting to ignite thunderstorms until the jet stream rounds the base of the upper level trough tonight. The jet stream dynamics will be dramatically increasing over south central Kansas by 6 to 8 PM, but the sun will have already set by this time. This is a very energetic storm system and we have to watch it very closely tonight as this energy in the form of powerful winds aloft will have the potential to create a few severe thunderstorms. Look below at the jet stream forecast for midnight tonight:
When looking at the jet stream remember that when it is approaching your area at 30,000 feet up you should look for the left front and right rear quadrants. These areas are the most likely spots to get the enhanced lifting in a storm system. The left front quadrant of the jet stream develops over us after sunset tonight and really at around midnight is when we are going into this enhanced lifting region as you can see above. I circled the left front quadrant of the developing jet stream as it rounds the base of the closing off upper low. Notice the darker shade of blue. This is the core of the jet stream. The left front quadrant would be along and to the left of the nose of this jet stream which is why I circled the area in red just to the north and northwest of this area. Can you see it? This likely means that the thunderstorms may not get their act together until a few hours after sunset tonight. The GFS shows the bullseye of heaviest rain forecast near Trenton which is directly related to the left front quadrant of the jet stream as you can see below in the 1.5 inch bullseye.
After this storm goes by we will be south of the developing and slowly moving upper low. Bands of clouds will move in around the storm and it will turn colder. But, there will be almost no chance of our first snowflakes from this storm. There has been some talk of a chance of snow next week. And, I do see this potential for the early week storm system that the models do not have a good handle on yet. We will talk a lot more about this next storm on Thursday. You still have time to enter the snowflake contest with the deadline for entries coming on Saturday.
We will have a major blog update and new entry sometime this evening, either between the 5 and 6 PM newscasts or possibly around 8 PM tonight at the latest. Thank you so much for reading and participating on the NBC Action Weather blog each day. My favorite season is approaching....WINTER!
Gary