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Evening update.....rain & thunderstorms

6:45 PM update:

That left front quadrant of the jet stream, as talked about in this mornings blog, is now lifting the low level moisture into a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  And, thunderstorms continue to be quite strong along the advancing cold front.  There may be some severe weather, but most of these thunderstorms will likely stay below severe limits.  We have added some snow into early next weeks forecast.  This next storm due in around Monday night or Tuesday has the potential to bring us our first snowflakes.  I am still not convinced, but as it is now only 4 to 5 days away we decided to throw in our first chance of snow of the season.  Watch NBC Action News at 10 PM as we will have some new data to work with.

Previous entry below:

Good evening bloggers,

I know there is a lot of chatter out there about severe weather.  We are closely monitoring this situation but nothing is even close to threatening our local region yet.  Thunderstorms are forming along the cold front well to our west at 5 PM, and down near the Oklahoma border and a few of these will likely be severe.  But, for our region conditions are more favorable for thunderstorms that are just below severe limits tonight with some areas possibly getting close to two inches of rain. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe, though, and the main threat is strong winds tonight. We will update the blog right here between now and after the 6 PM newscast.  So, watch NBC Action News as we track this strong storm system. 

Gary

Published Wednesday, November 05, 2008 4:37 PM by glezak

Comments

 

Jayhawk said:

I am hoping someone can help me out in finding a website.  Basically the website is devoted to storm chasing and lists several links to various storm chasers that you can follow and view their streaming web cams from their vehicles, etc..  I've lost the link and can't seem to find it in a search on the net.  Does anyone have it? If you do, just post the link in your comment.  

Thank you,

Don  
November 5, 2008 5:05 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I know that one is severestudios.com....
November 5, 2008 5:08 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

T-Storm Watch west
November 5, 2008 5:11 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Severe Thunderstorm watch in effect for Eastern Kansas
November 5, 2008 5:12 PM
 

jules7373 said:

November 5, 2008 5:16 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

58 degree dewpoint? Nice!  Juice it up juice it up!
November 5, 2008 5:18 PM
 

jules7373 said:

Jayhawk -

http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php

This is also a great site and has a couple links to live feed...

Jules
November 5, 2008 5:21 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

Something fun for you tornado buffs:
http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/storm-chasers/quiz/quiz.html
November 5, 2008 5:23 PM
 

jules7373 said:

I was headed to the KS/OK border this morning to chase and changed my mind at the last minute. I so hope I don't regret it in the next few hours. My friend still went. He forgot his laptop charger so I begged him not to chase blind in the dark. We will see what he does. He was trying to find a Wal Mart or somewhere to pick one up. Keep your fingers crossed for him please...

Jules

------------------------

Jules,

I don't think you will regret it as at this time of the year it is dark by 5:30 PM.

Gary

November 5, 2008 5:25 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

I just noticed something on the 5:20 weather report.  Gary gets really enthusiastic when he reports on exciting weather events like storms or snow.  Eyes, posture, voice fluctuation, and movement is really well presenting.  Thats what makes it better than watching other stations.  Gary you can tell you really love weather, and your excitement really reaches out to those watching who love it just as much also.  Keep it up Gary you do a good job, and the funniest part is telling the news anchors that "word" (snow) and they all go "oh no Gary say it aint so" and you are like: "oh yeah itsa commin baby"


Oh and Gary just put snow in the forecast..he did it.  I didnt think he would until after this storm came through, but it has been changed!

---------------

It is still just a chance. I am not sure if it will be cold enough.  So, we may take it back out tomorrow.  Let's see what the trend is.  It has been trending more towards our first chance of snow.

Thank you so much for the kind words.  When I was younger I only watched one channel.

Gary

November 5, 2008 5:25 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

uh oh! Gary are we going to have to reschedule now? or wait a few more days?

--------------

Andrew,

It may end up just fine on Tuesday, so let's wait and see.

Gary

November 5, 2008 5:33 PM
 

jules7373 said:

That's exactly the reason I decided not to go Gary :)

Jules
November 5, 2008 5:37 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Platte county is not in it, do you think it will be after while?
becky
November 5, 2008 5:40 PM
 

jules7373 said:

Depends on what you mean by "in it"
November 5, 2008 5:47 PM
 

bewild79 said:

the watch
November 5, 2008 5:54 PM
 

KellyHightower said:

NO SNOW I still have leaves on my biggest tree.
November 5, 2008 6:05 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I cant watch the news, can someone update me on what gary says? Thank you
Becky
November 5, 2008 6:17 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

Good Evening Everyone. Nice looking line of storms out west just rolled through Manhattan, now we await to see what it will bring to Kansas City. Was nice seeing the snow in the forecast tonight, something I didnt expect from Gary. I really did figure he would wait until tonight was over! Was a very windy day here today in KCK and we recieved .04 of rainfall so far, mostly late this afternoon. Dewpoint has been on the rise all day and we are now at 59°.

Have a good evening everyone!

Bryan

http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=both&station=KKSKANSA7
November 5, 2008 6:29 PM
 

Luthur said:

Tornado Warning near... Nebraska City.
November 5, 2008 6:31 PM
 

farmgirl said:

I hope all you that like strong rumbles of Thunder and some lightening are getting some. We are getting a few rumbles with light rain here in La Cygne. Guess I'll go bake some double chocolate cookies to take my mind off the storms. :) Chocolate makes everything better right???
November 5, 2008 6:56 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Severe Thunderstorm warning in Linn and Bates County. Sigh.
November 5, 2008 7:04 PM
 

juba said:

Does anybody know if I can change my blogging user name? How?
November 5, 2008 7:07 PM
 

dougbce said:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
 LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS  
 WESTERN BATES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI  
 
* UNTIL 745 PM CST  
 
* AT 654 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED  
 A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS  
 IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUND CITY...AND  
 MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
November 5, 2008 7:17 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Raining buckets here in La cygne with lots of lightening and thunder. I hope I'm just north of the severe winds.
November 5, 2008 7:19 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Is anyone else experiencing slow refreshes?
November 5, 2008 7:25 PM
 

dougbce said:

Looks like a lot of the metro is going to get in a little pocket for a few hours between the two lines.
November 5, 2008 7:27 PM
 

dougbce said:

Jayhawk, TornadoVideos.net has live streaming chases as well.
November 5, 2008 7:29 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

Nothin to do with the severe storms or anything, but when is Gary going to do his winter forcast predictions?????
November 5, 2008 7:38 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

That line of storms knocking on Topeka's doorstep sure is small and appears to be weakining as it approaches the metro area. Maybe we will just see a few rumbles of thunder and some rainfall. In all honesty though...1-2 inches of rainfall appears unlikely looking at that, unless you got caught under a really heavy downpour. Also have not seen any warnings in awhile on that line of storms in central Kansas. Most of the warnings have been well south of KC towards Oklahoma, Southern Missouri, and Arkansas. Also some warnings on the northern extent of the line up in Nebraksa/Iowa. Temp has dropped down to 64 here now but the dewpoint has increased up from 59 to 60 here at 130th and State Avenue. It appears looking at the dewpoints that the front has cleared the Topeka area and dewpoint has responded by dropping from 59 to 52, dewpoint down to 49 outside of Manhattan, and dewpoints in the lower 40s near Beatrice Nebraska..all according to Wundermap on Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=39.88867&lon=-95.62500&zoom=8&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=1&wxsn.mode=tw&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&pix=0
November 5, 2008 7:45 PM
 

bewild79 said:

he said he will do the winter forcast on the 24th
November 5, 2008 7:49 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Pvt?  What happened?  LOL j/k

As far as the snow chances for Mon...not buying the models just yet.  It seems to be a juxtaposition to me.  The surface high will bring the cold air, but I don't think it will bring quite enough.  The reason is due to the surface low south of it.  The surface low is key in bringing up the moisture, but also brings up warmer air.

I don't see the surface ridge being dirty..that is to say, I am not thinking there will be moisture associated with it.  I think the surface high wins out..and brings cold temps..and cold enough to maybe snow, but think it will suppress the moisture.

Conversely, if the surface low did win out...then it would likely be a bit too warm to snow.

This is a weak wave passing under a strong upper level ridge.  I am not even sure it will really be there yet.  Seems out of place to me.

With the upper level ridge, the strong surface high, and previous events, I am not buying the strength of the surface low if it even will exist..and certainly, I am not buying any moisture return.  Heck, the 850 winds are progged out of the NE...it won't be bringing any moisture with it..

It will all just depend on the surface low if it shows up.
November 5, 2008 7:50 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

I think Gary said in two weeks

-------------------

We are doing it on the 24th. 

Gary

November 5, 2008 7:51 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Really getting pounded by heavy rain and lightening. I have to laugh because NWS dropped our rain total to 3/4 to 1 inch; where as earlier today it was up to 2 inches. I can bet that I already have 3/4 of inch and will most likely reach 2 inches if not a bit more.
November 5, 2008 7:58 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Well the storm is coming across Lake Perry now and is about 15 minutes from my house.  They say it is packing high winds and heavy rain.  But no hail.  I'll let you know as it passes and give a rain and wind update.  Right now the winds are SE at 6 gusting to 10, the temp is 63, humidity is 84% with a dewpoint of 58.
November 5, 2008 8:09 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Well the storms are still on the way but the NWS just cancelled the watch for Jefferson County KS
November 5, 2008 8:15 PM
 

Luthur said:

Farmgirl -

Pardon me for forgetting, do you live near La Cygne?
November 5, 2008 8:34 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Yes, I'm 8 miles north of La Cygne.
November 5, 2008 8:45 PM
 

spotter said:

rain lighting lots of wind in st joseph at this time.
November 5, 2008 8:51 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Hmmm.. wunderground has dropped the severe weather watch for most of the counties to the west and a bit to the south (Linn), but NWS is still saying severe weather watch for Linn. Just gotta love these conflicts of info.
November 5, 2008 8:56 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Now the watches are back up on wunderground. Must have been a hiccup.
November 5, 2008 9:00 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

9:05 PM and that secondary line of storms is moving in to the western Johnson/WYCO counties.  FINALLY makes it here.
November 5, 2008 9:04 PM
 

A dogg said:

Yea, farmgirl, we are getting pounded down here!! The lightning is incredible!! About 25 minutes ago the house was shaking from the thunder like I have never experienced before. You live 9 miles north of la cygne, you basically live in my backyard!
November 5, 2008 9:06 PM
 

farmgirl said:

.9 inches so far in La Cygne.
November 5, 2008 9:07 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Well that line of storms that came through Jefferson County was not very impressive.  A little heavy rain for a few minutes, some lightening and 1 single gust to 18.  So the NWS was right to cancel it just as it crossed the Jackson/Jefferson line.  We have about 10 minutes of rain left and so far all we got was 0.25" of rain.  Dewpoint has dropped to 48 now and the temp is down to 54 now.  I was hoping for 1 last blast of a good thunderstorm.  Lovely 4 months of cold, snow and ice -- what fun.  Well, at least Gary enjoys it.  Can't say the same for the cows and horses out here.
November 5, 2008 9:19 PM
 

juba said:

Not a wonder the watches were canceled, the lines of meso rain and t-showers merged killing the threat, GAry predicted the lin to be around Topeka right now earlier and its about to move through as yellow on the map. I wanted storms.
November 5, 2008 9:32 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Oh man you gotta be kidding me.  I have been waiting all night hoping that the second line of stronger storms that went through manhattan was going to bring a punch to us.  Soon as it hits Johnson County all of a sudden it just falls apart.   BOOOOOOO
November 5, 2008 9:37 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

the interesting part of the storm went SE as expected.  however this is a big, healthy storm overall.  there is good inflow on the NW side of the storm, there is no shortage of moisture on the backside.  the problem with precip regarding friday was the lack of it.  it would be wise to keep an eye on what moisture is available upstream to see how 'dirty' the airmass ends up being before the next wave comes in.  could make an impact on the next item of interest down the road.

nice rain tonight, only a couple rumbles of thunder though.  ill take it.  last ones for a while.
November 5, 2008 9:40 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

If we actually do get snow it wont be very much will it? And thank you for answering my question earlier about the winter forcast
November 5, 2008 9:51 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Yeah might as well enjoy the thunder.  Howerver pvt murphy, isnt there thunder snow? I could have sworn I have heard thunder snow before.  What causes that anyway?



November 5, 2008 10:07 PM
 

Winterfan said:

Gary said that it was still quite a ways out. Possiblity of knowing if it's even going to snow is still up in the air.
November 5, 2008 11:36 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Anyone have any rain amounts? Sure sounds like I got a good soaking where I am.  Wish I had a weather station on my deck!
November 6, 2008 12:49 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Wow today was exciting already and then... GARY  did it, yep, he dropped the "S" bomb on air and on the blog which is and will result in shockwaves of questioning, asking about model A. vs. Model B. vs Model C, overall excited remarks on the blog, and of course, my favorite the person that somehow gets the fear that a blizzard is about to bear down and blast K.C. from the mention of "first snowflakes", flurries, ect.  AHHH!  I Love this time of year( at least when it is active) I guess when it comes to times of year I am a fair weather, or make that "unfair"? weather fan;) O.K. I better catch some z's
November 6, 2008 1:57 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

The secondary ULL in east KS. is interesting, at least that is what it appears to be on radar, it will be one of the many things to look for to see how big of a role it might play in the new LRC, such as normally  if this were winter( ignoring the stronger jet we will have by then) then this system would not be very good for snow typically since the main ULL is WAY northwest of here, but the area of light to maybe mod. rain in KS. looks to be associated with lift from well behind the front which later in the season might have been an area of frozen precip. (I think) which would have given a "traditionally" low snow/ winter precip. type of storm an extra wintry component due to a special twist in the LRC( again NOT saying that this little area of rain in KS. is that important, just showing how even small things must be watched when it comes to the LRC.
O.K. NOW time for bed! Good Night All;)
November 6, 2008 2:09 AM
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