Good morning,
A strong storm has developed over the plains and we will be under its influence into Saturday. We will call this storm #1, and it brought us 1/2" to 1" of rain in most areas last night, with 1.70" just northeast of Kansas City around Chillicothe. There is a storm #2, and possibly a storm #3 that could affect our region next week.
Let's start with storm #1. Look below at the surface forecast for 3 PM this afternoon:
A 992 mb surface low is forecast to be over Minnesota this afternoon. Northwest and west of this surface low snow will be likely today with significant blowing and drifting over the Dakotas. A Blizzard Warning is in effect for this area today. The pressure gradient around this storm is very tight and we will experience west to southwest winds 20-40 mph this afternoon. We are going into the dry slot of this storm so I am expecting it to be mostly sunny today. As this storm very slowly drifts northeast low clouds will wrap around the big circulation leading to a cloudy and cool Friday.
Our first chance of snow may arrive early next week. There are many uncertainties with this storm #2. Split flow is increasing over North America as you can see below. The jet stream is splitting into two just off the west coast of the USA and Canada. One stream goes up into Canada and then around the upper low near Hudson Bay. This is going to provide a colder stream of air into the United States. A second stream dives south around a developing southern Rockies storm system.
For us to have snow on Monday this storm will have to take a track that combines with the northern branch perfectly to allow for enough cold air for snow. The track of the upper level storm, strength, amount of moisture, lift, and cold enough air are the factors that are not even close to being determined at this time. We will be tracking these developments on NBC Action News today and tonight.
Have a great start to your day. We will answer your questions, but if you get specific about the snow potential we will likely not answer any of those questions. Right now we just know that there is a chance that the conditions will come together for our first threat of snow, but it could end up just being a few clouds, a cold rain, or some other scenario yet to be determined. If you haven't entered the snowflake contest the deadline is Saturday and this first chance could end the contest. I would say the chance is very slim of our first inch of snow, but it is early. Good luck!
Gary