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Sunrise is gorgeous this morning! Bit chilly, but crisp and cool.

hmmmm.........no snow................NOT CLOD ENOUGH
I'm insatiable!
I want that blizzard Gary!
please:)

hey Gary, how am I able to enter the snowflake contest? what email address do I send my stuff in to.

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Brent,

You just click on the snowflake contest on NBCActionNews.com and enter.  It is one entry per email address.

Gary

oh and did I hear the snow word?....looks like its time for me to come back to the blog....lol

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Brent,

Welcome back!

Gary

Even if the storm was organized and it was cold enough Mondays storm would not produce and major accumilations is that correct? I know anything is possible though. That sure is one scary costume. I bet he got a kick out of meeting you. The weather was absolutely great on Halloween. Like they say if you don't like the weather here wait a few days and it will change. Amazing what a week can do to change the weather. December 3 huh? Well i guess I will need to plan to stay home that day because my bet is that you are right Gary lol. Have a great day and weekend.

My mom said she saw a few snowflakes this morning, can anybody prove this?

Hey, Andrew, I also saw two little, white pieces of precipitation while I was walking the dog around 7 am. There was also a section of rainbow. Very pretty out, except for that cold wind. Brrrrr!

Andrew- I second the snowflake sightings from the International airport.  It was mostly light sprinkles, but there were a few flakes mixed in.  I also witnessed the full rainbow JudyH spoke of as well!  I also second the brrr.  

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The sprinkles and snowflakes missed the censor I guess:)  Keep the snow away from me for about another month!

I got your message.

Jeremy

Ok, so my mom wasn't joking!

so how far south would this thing have to move for us to get snow from it?
Becky

Gary must have the concert schedule for my Middle School Band!  We always have weather concerns on our winter concerts and wouldn't you know he picked December 2nd....our first concert!!!

LOL

DL

It snowed lightly in trenton this morning

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We saw that stuff on radar this morning and mentioned a snowflake may be seen by a few.  Thanks for the report because we weren't sure if the precip. was aloft or not!

Jeremy

I saw a few flakes up here near Liberty!  :)

My cousin lives in South Dakota. We haven't been able to reach her. I am sure she is fine despite the 4 feet of snow in her area. I guess that is another thing that would concern me about a blizzard like that. If I was at the hospital I would not be able to leave work and my daughter (and the dogs) would be stuck at home, alone,possibly without power. I would be worried sick about her. So I hope that kind of weather never happens here. Sorry blizzard fanatics. I am about tired of this cold blowing wind too. Ahhh, to be back in the weather of last weekend :)

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The 4' of snow was in the Black Hills I think...higher elevation.  But most of the central and western Dakotas was impacted in a big way by the blizzard.  Growing up in southwest Minnesota I remember many blizzards...and some brought with them less than an inch of new snow!

Jeremy

Gary- what great picture of you and your protege. That must make you feel awesome!  Have a great weekend in the Big Town. Looking forward to your winter forecast as well as you LRC prediction for 08-09.

JP

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JP,

Gary was showing me some LRC stuff yesterday and this year may have a lot of fun in store.  I'm looking forward to Spring already!  First things first...the next two weeks before the winter forecast is issued may hold the final piece to the puzzle.

Jeremy

Hello, i am new here, my name is Craig and i live in Omaha Nebraska and also have my own website; snow-day.org

Been watching this system and the latest GFS model really weakens this and is still north into Nebraska giving them the snow. Though, still few days out and could change.

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Welcome to the blog and thanks for stopping by!  Our forecast has mentioned a chance of the first snowflakes of the season, but a lot will depend on the strength of the storm and where it tracks.  You are correct if the GFS run is correct...there would likely be no snow.  Either way, our thoughts have been the chance of seeing snow isn't a guarantee for Monday.  It does look like a cold rain though!

Jeremy

hmmmm.....interesting....

My sisters live in Sioux Falls and they only had 2 or 3 inches there. The western half of the state got walloped. Check out the weather cams on wxnation.com they have some great view of Deadwood (39+" of snow!)

Pat

The sprinkles and snowflakes missed the censor I guess:)  Keep the snow away from me for about another month
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Jeremy-
Oh yeah, it was extremely light precip that was barely reaching the ground, but some small drops were reaching it.  Maybe a mist would have been a better descriptor.  Precip was falling as evidenced by the rainbow visible nearby (I have a picture), just not measurable, even as a trace, and only lasted but a few minutes.  And it was spotty.  

I'm going to stare the eyes of the beast dead on today (read: find the snow) as I'm driving to Madison today after work for a wedding...  It'll be a real taste of winter in the "home of snow".  Yeah, I know the snow showers along the way won't add up to much, but it's still snow:(

Maybe you can conjure up some 60s and sun for my return Monday, LOL! I won't count on it! ;)    

Jeremy, I think I read that it was also around Mt Rushmore as well as the Black Hills ( basically not far from each other). My cousin lives in one of the small towns in the Rushmore area.

Isn't Mt. Rushmore located in the Black Hills?

My week in KC is ending and it's back to Tx this weekend.  I'm glad to be leaving with all this nasty weather coming up.  Looking forward to being warm again.  Just wish they would get some rain down there, they keep missing the rain from these storm systems and it's going to be a bad winter wildfire season if they don't get some significant moisture soon.

The LATEST GFS actually gives my area, Omaha Nebraska 2-4" of snow;

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

There were also reports of wind gusts over 100mph in Rapid City (in the Black Hills). There was actually a civil emergency notice for NW SD urging people to not travel.

Sticking with the stats, our first 1" snow would be here Dec. 7th in KC.  Our best chances to beat the average looks to be may the 14th or the 20th through the 23rd.
A looser bet is betting against the odds.  A safe bet is going the odds.  My website has around the 23rd as our first 1" snow.  I personally picked around the 21st for the snowflake contest.

Snow Day,

I love the naming of Winter Storms/Ice Storms!! Very cooolll idea!!

Oh yes there’s a chill in the air and it’s that time a year again.  Time for modelitis and following that pretty blue 540 line to see where the snow will go.  For those of you who are new to winter season on this blog, prepare yourself for the hyperbole!  I can't wait for the roller coaster of emotions.

Thanks for the kind words! The NAM is a bit stronger as well but still the same path.

Wow, the visible sat. of the conus, especially to the east is rather impressive with three big swirls, #1 our storm over the plains, #2 a low off of the New England coast, #3 Hurricane Paloma under Cuba, on the IR Loop it looks like Paloma is going to town with deepening convection, the entire "trio" looks like two cinnamon rolls and a donut, brings a whole new meaning to "Continental Breakfast"LOL;)

Your Welcome! Next Time you need Winter Storm/Ice Storm Andrew ;)

Will do! My NWS just bumped up POPS to 30% though shoudl be 40% at least. They have this;


Saturday: Scattered flurries. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a north northwest wind between 18 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday Night: Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 24. North northwest wind between 9 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 41. North northwest wind between 3 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind becoming northeast between 5 and 8 mph.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Veterans Day: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

so how many times do you think the chance of snow will change until monday?

Whoever just updated shouldn't talk snow chances around people like me. As soon I see the two words snow and chance together, I instinctively freak out. Then, like you guys say(even though I would be in denial), there was only a small chance and that's why it didn't happen. Regardless, I end up moping around the house all day. :)
But seriously, don't get me excited.


WEATHER TEAM,
I am going to Albert Lea,MN(very south-central,mn) for Thanksgiving. Does it look like there will be any storms around then? I'm looking forward to a white thanksgiving there(I missed out last year).

500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times!

LOL..!!

No, I do know that it is hard to forcast these things....I Just know that when the snow does happen and it is sticking to the ground and it is enough for a snowman...my 5 yr old will be so excited.  This is only his 2nd winter (with snow) we lived down south when he was born until last year
Becky

Ok, ok, I know where the Badlands, the Black Hills and Mt Rushmore are. I typed wrong.

HURRICANE PALOMA!

Gary-
My wife and I are in the Grand Cayman's celebrating 10 years and have video of the hurricane currently. We will be getting more and be able to send it, but i need an email address to send it to send the attachments.

Scott Harrick
scotthnks@msn.com

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Scott,

I will send you our email addresses to send it to. Good luck. This is now a massive hurricane, it looks like a strong CAT 4 close to CAT 5. 

I am emailing you right now.

Gary

lol i am attempting to imagine 4 feet of snow blowing around with 50mph winds here in KC... that would definitely make my day.........or decade

and i second what andrew said... about the chance for snow

Also, i found while looking at the GFS, that 180 hours out (next saturday) looks very interesting winter precipitation wise,

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_sfc_prcp.gif

i think we need to add it to the list of storms to watch :D

Still holding out for the first measurable snow to be in January..."no snow, no snow, no snow!!!"  Very blustery here in Paola, 44 degrees, 15 mph winds, not much fun for our walk tonight.....so sad to see summer truly gone.  Can I start hoping for 100 degree temperatures again soon ;)  Have a great weekend everyone!
--deb

Gary, it snowed all day at work in West Des Moines today.  However, there was no accumulation.  Occasionally it would pile up just underneath the windshield wipers on the way home, but that was about it.

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Matt,

We are jealous.  Our first flakes will fall sometime soon.  Keep us updated.

Gary

set the heat down a few degrees, and turned the fireplace on tonight.  got the tv on, my laptop, and a really good digiorno frozen pizza.  If only we could get that snow......


weatherdude, i like your thinking.

I have heard from an alternate source that temperatures are expected to rise back into the upper 60's by next weekend (Friday).  Do you think there's any chance of this happening?

I hope not, I'm ready to settle down into winter!

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No, I don't see that yet.  Go to those other sources at your own risk.  There is no sign of any Arctic air, so I am sure we will make it back into the 50s eventually.

Gary

Discussions up here in Nebraska saying that the possibility of a Winter Storm occuring Monday-Tuesday

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Yes, the latest data confirms the potential snowstorm in Nebraska.  Just like any storm, let's see what it looks like on Sunday.  This looks a bit differenly every day.

Gary

The National Weather Service in Dodge City is also monitoring a significant winter storm for their viewing area with lots of wind. Are they jumping on the gun too soon?

I urge all NWS not to jump on the gun so quickly, while keeping it in mind and discussing the possibility of accumulating snowfall, the models juump around so quickly, it must be the hurricane paloma reaking havoc on the pattern

hey, gary what are you thinking about this storm up in nebraska?