NBC Action Communities

Ug- I hope Thursday's temperatures are the warmer solution- my daughter is doing "One Homeless Night" with her school and will be spending Thursday night sleeping in a box!  Does it look like it might rain/snow through the night on Thursday into Friday?  At least it will give her a great appreciation of the nice warm bed she has at home!  Dea

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Dea,

I think Thursday night is windy and pretty cold.  Lows in the 20s look likely.  The precip. at this moment looks light.

Jeremy

If we do get a few flakes out of the Thursday-Friday storm, do you think there will be any accumulations? Or is the ground too warm yet and it will melt as soon as it hits the ground?
Audra

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One of Jeff Penner's favorite sayings is..."It doesn't matter how warm the ground is, if it snows hard enough it will stick."  This is true because the snow can cool the ground pretty quick if it comes down heavy.  That is not what I'm looking for at this point.  We will be the first to tell you if we are expecting snow accumulation with a storm.

Jeremy

For those of you who do not want snow, let me just say you can not delay the inevitable!  I love it, and I say bring it on!  If you live in KC you got to adapt!  This is probably one of the best weather cities to live in I would imagine year round wise given the transition of spring storms and winter snow/ice.

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If you want snow move north;)  I'd rather have rain over snow anyday...but I know the snow isn't too far away.

Jeremy

Amen Jeremy...I say go North young man! ha!  Truly, I don't like any kind of precipitation so I know I need to go to the Southwest, and I will, just as soon as obligations here are met, it will be a few years.  
Beautiful day today, very little wind, awesome sunshine (who doesn't like sunshine?), and milder temps.  I stayed outside 90% of today to enjoy it as I know change is inevitable in KS, I've lived here my whole life.  I have seen Winters where there was little to no snow.  That's the kind of winter I'm hoping for this year..."no snow, no snow" doin' the stomp!  ;).

Wow....not alot of blogging here...read this all of the time and am ready for some real action.  Bring in the snow flakes!!!!!  After Christmas Day, it can go away and be spring!  Can you just give me a little hint of what you guys are thinking about this winter?  Bad or mild?  Something to go on.....please???

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I'm not going to spoil anything for the 24th.  Tune in at 10 p.m. :)

Gary may give some hints here and there. 

Jeremy

Jeremy:

How are you doing kind sir!! It has been a while for sure!! As I have said in a few posts the last couple of weeks, I have had some "changes" in my little neck of the human existence and have not been able to Blog nearly as much as I would have liked-I think the past few weeks have been very exciting weather wise and while I for sure do not even think I know enough to make an educated thought about this winter my very remidial understanding of the LRC I think shows some hints that there will be some excitement-I think volitile might be the word this winter with some extreme cold and for the season real blow torch type temperatures. Like I said, I am prob. way off base, but some of these lows have had a punch as have some of the cold fronts. Whatever the case, it will be fascinating to follow!!


Brocksmama got me to take a break from my tunneled visioned life and write in: I am doing our sleep in boxes at school Thursday night as well and have been following Thursday since it showed up on the 364 hour GFS-I have to give the GFS props as it sniffed out the possibility of this early in the game and has really not let up. It has for sure had varying solutions-i.e. last week's runs had Thursday's low in the gulf and then cut off in the SW but it has always been there. I am still keeping a close eye on Thursday/Thursday night for sure!! This will be my 12th time ( I did this for 10 years while I was teaching in KC) to sponsor a sleep in boxes event and I have been so lucky with the rain-it has been extremely cold a few times (2 years ago we had a bottle of water freeze solid by the morning!!!) and some real warm (50's) nights but no rain. Just the luck of the draw. My hope is that the 6Z GFS will be closer to reality and most of the precip. will be gone. Wind and cold makes it a better experience and always correlates into more items donated so I would not mind at all if it were windy and cold!!

If is indeed rainy, I will email you some pictures-Gary was so nice to show a few from our event last year!!!

Have a great night-I hope to begin to get more time to write in-I sure do miss this Blog!!!

Bill yes indeed, I am still present in Lawrence!!

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Bill,

Great to hear from you!  Please send the pictures when you get them.  The storm for Thursday/Friday reminds me a little of a 'clipper' type storm...only farther south.  Where the ULL's reach maximum strength and tracking this over the past 2 months can shed a lot of light on where the long term longwave trough will set up.  There should be some fun this winter.  I think the extremes that you mentioned could be there more so than previous years. 

Jeremy

Bill...are you talking about this storm?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20080929.html

or this storm?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

Guess they look the same to me....

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The cycle is now 45-46 days?  I thought you said 41 earlier?  Still thinking November 18/19 for some excitement?

Jeremy

Well it will not be as active as 07=08 but i see signs like Bill to make me belive it will be a rollercoaster.....

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A rollercoaster that spends a lot of time in the trough part of the ride:)

Jeremy

Scott-That is great man!! I am so out of practice and behind the game I am not even sure if I remember what the GFS is-I think it is some sort of numerical model-and what is this Euro I keep hearing about and the LRC-what in the world is the LRC-I believe it is an old old ship from the Civil War era....

I think I am at least at the stadium-now, I just have to get back into the game...hopefully I won't throw 5 INTs like I usually do.......

Have a great night everybody!!

Oh, clouds are beginning to move into SW Lawrence and I think one can see the spin on satelite as the low begins to develop in the 4 corners region-did I just throw an INT...

Bill where are my cleats in Lawrence

Gary:

Good cloudy coolish morning to you sir!! Currently we are at 37 degrees with a NE wind and dew point of a wopping 28 degrees. A few sprinkles are falling here and there and some lite showers have popped between here and Emporia but with that low of a dew point I doubt much of it will reach the ground. Should help moisten things up a bit though!!

Ok-here we go-a few random observations this morning-I am way out of practice but here goes nothing!!! LOL

1. I think this morning one can see this developing low spinning over the 4 corners region. In my very humble opinion, I think this is a good sign in that this is the second or third low that has began to form over this region this Fall. One thing the past two winters has lacked is that 4 corners low which is what gives us our best chance of a wide spread snow event. For sure, this is forecasted to head North of us but it is still only November 10th-a bit early in the year for one to form there and stay south. I am thinking though that for this winter season this may bode well in the fact that we may have one or two of these which could give us a couple shots at a decent winter event.

2. This is also the second or third time where we have had a strong cold and or a stronger upper level low come through and then have a low form on its heels back in the 4 corners region. If we get an arctic blast from one of these in December or January and then have that secondary low form along the front in the 4 corners region...that to me is the perfect set up for a significant winter event for here. It only takes 2-3 of these types of events in a season to make our snow average and to make it a good winter.

3. If one and two are going out on a limb (which they are!!) this point is going to be me hanging by a thread from the limb!! LOL Based on these past few storm systems, it appears that the long wave trough may be setting up west of us this year-from say a Minneapolis to the Oklahoma Pan Handle line. Last weeks low and the two this week really seem to close off once they hit around Nebraska/Minnesota. Of course now, since it is only November 10th they are tracking North and intensifying North of us-later in the season though, one or two may intensify over the Oklaahoma Pan handle-like this low today-what if it did indeed stay south and tracked across southern Kansas and closed off around Dodge City-with cold air in place.

4. In the end, I can't believe I am even hoping for a decent winter here-we have had 2 back to back (at least to me 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 were great winters-any time I can ice skate two years in a row you have good winters) but to hope for a third in a row is to kind of throw the law of averages/climotology for here to the wind-it is just hard based on the records to have 3 decent winters back to back. At least that is how I have kind of percieved it growing up here and living here. That being said, I do think we are in for some fun times this winter-it may not be as consistent as last winter, but when the cold comes I really think it will come and when the blow torch comes, I think it will really blow torch. Volitile-I still believe that will be the word for this winter-not much consistency but massive extremes. It has been pretty cold since about Saturday-take this and put it into late December/early January with some true arctic air.

Well, since I have just wrote War and Peace again, I guess maybe I am officially back!!! LOL Especially considering that most of these points are so far off base that the pitcher can walk over an tag me out!!!  Still really watching Thursday as we are sleeping in boxes-looks like the rain will be gone by the afternoon/early evening accroding to the 6Z run but looks like the winds will pick up as that low deepens over Minneapolis-the wind and cold I welcome-it gets us more items donated that night for Friday morning delivery-rain-oh man-I'd rather have snow than rain!!


Have a great day and as always thanks for reading!!!

Bill oh there's my cleats in Lawrence

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Bill,

Very good observations.  I am not ready to say that the mean trough is from Minneapolis to the Oklahoma Panhandle, but I think you are on the right track.  I am about to write the morning blog entry as it is only 5:44 AM.  I will have a lot more on what I think this year's LRC is going to be sometime in the next couple of weeks.  There has been every indication so far that this will be a rather exciting winter.  We can have a more in-depth conversation soon.

Have a fantastic day.

Gary