Good morning bloggers,
Rain is increasing across southern Kansas this morning. Let's watch this area of rain as it increases and heads our way. A slow moving upper level storm is forecast to be centered over northwestern Kansas by 6 AM Tuesday as you can see below:
The area of rain over southern Kansas this morning should increase and move in this afternoon or evening. This is a situation where the surface low is near or just south of the upper level low for various reasons: The upper low is not very strong and there is energy still flowing into the southwest and around the upper low causing surface pressure falls. This will result in a prolonged cloudy period, and I am glad it isn't cold enough for snow. It had looked like we may see some snowflakes from this storm, and in Nebraska they were concerned about a winter storm, but it appears that there just isn't enough cold air to produce snow with the exception of some of the higher terrain out over the western plains. So, our forecast problems are more in deciding how much rain will fall.
It will be cloudy for the first three days of this work week. Then a strong cold front will approach the area and should wipe out this mess by Thursday night and Friday and possibly bring us our first snowflakes of the season. There is still no sign on when the snowflake contest will come to an end. We had over 5,000 entries online and more that were sent in through regular mail. Thank you so much for participating. Here are our entries:
Gary Lezak: December 3, 5:44 PM
Brett Anthony: January 7, 3:30 PM
Jeremy Nelson: December 2, 4:40 PM
Jeff Penner: December 3, 10:00 PM
The upper level storm moving in today will likely track northwest of Kansas City into southern Nebraska on Tuesday. Warmer air is being drawn into the storm and even in Nebraska it is looking like mostly a cold rain. Disturbances will be rotating around this weak and slow moving storm bringing us periods of rain and drizzle. There were a few sprinkles and showers earlier today, but the first main band of rain around this storm should arrive before the evening rush hour.
There are signs of our first Arctic air mass of the season that may build over Canada in the next week to 10 days. We will talk a bit more about this on our weathercasts today on NBC Action News.
The LRC is likely set. But, what is it? How long is the cycle? Where will storm systems reach their peak strength? Are we going to have a warm and dry winter, or a cold and stormy one? How much snow will fall in your neighborhood? These are questions that will be answered two weeks from tonight on our winter forecast special segment at 10 PM November 24th. We will talk more about the weather pattern later in the week.
Gary